Long Range Discussion 23.0

nutleyblizzard wrote:
Wow this board is dead. This should shake things up. Here’s the 12z CMC…

Interesting CMC run today. Compare it to the 10:1 ratio snow map the GFS put out for the same day three days ago. Even though the 12Z GFS misses today. All models have something major in the ATlantic next weekend. It probably misses us but worth monitoring for sure.

I have been unimpressed with the performance of the Canadian models both meso and global for sometime. The global seems to latch on to an idea a few days after the GFS/Euro already dismiss it. Is this threat dead, certainly not, but I believe very unlikely we get a direct hit.

nutleyblizzard wrote:
Last 3 runs of the GFS…

The ridge is good on 12Z, but the progressive flow doesn't allow for development of the storm.

We need to see things
slow down
n/s s/w drop further west
n/s s/w be much stronger than modeled.

Give us at least one of the 3 and then we have a shot...

This is a very good ridge on the 12Z Euro. Have no idea how it affects things, but if we could just slow things down a bit for consolidation...

If you look at the ULL location on the 12z GFS it's really in a decent location when you look at the heights.  That ought to be BM or even inside, but the issue is the lack of consolidation with its mid-levels.  Look at all the bumps to its NE meaning its disorganized and not at a point where it can come up.  If this was better consolidated you'd have a blizzard. That's why the progressive flow hurts us because it doesn't give that time.  

I think there are enough pieces at play though to be excited at the though of a potential HECS- I get we’ve been burned by the progressive nature of the pattern but I’m hopeful something gives

I think there are enough pieces at play though to be excited at the though of a potential HECS- I get we’ve been burned by the progressive nature of the pattern but I’m hopeful something gives

dsix85 wrote:I think there are enough pieces at play though to be excited at the though of a potential HECS- I get we’ve been burned by the progressive nature of the pattern but I’m hopeful something gives

Yeah and I'm showing something at D6 which no doubt will change considerably by D3. I think though I'm at peace with this one just not working out. It's been that kind of season.

All good points. I think another potential positive to take a look towards is how the early/mid-week system pulls out. While we can’t just pull a -NAO out of nowhere maybe there’s a way for the first system to establish itself as a sort of pseudo and transient 50/50 Low. Anything to slow that flow down, as heehaw said.

Good point Matty. If there’s a way for that system to slow down and stall somewhere off the east coast and create a traffic jam
Of sorts maybe it puts the breaks on the progressive flow

This is telling by the Euro - OP is such an outlier against its own ENS support. RED FLAG!

LoL! I guess I shouldn't laugh though because at D6 pretty much all options are on the table. Can't say that at D3, but right now probably true.

JMA with a big hit

Is it fair to say today has been an overall positive trend for next weekend?

nutleyblizzard wrote:
Last 3 runs of the GFS…

I’ve kept quiet lately because we know models will change run to run. However, this is the single most positive trends I’ve seen and it needs to continue if this storm stands a chance. I’ve said all along the reason I like this time frame (or did like this time frame) was the +PNA and east based -NAO. Over the last 2-3 days, we have seen modeling trend significantly worse with these features. Meaning the NAO is more positive and the PNA is more negative. Without these, kiss the storm goodbye.

There’s a small little short wave crashing into the ridge off the Pacific and it’s causing the PNA ridge to roll forward. If we can keep this short wave west or slow it down it would increase odds of a major snowstorm next week by nearly two fold.

heehaw453 wrote:This is a very good ridge on the 12Z Euro.  Have no idea how it affects things, but if we could just slow things down a bit for consolidation...

Euro seems to be holding southern energy back which plays into its bias. Correct that and this woulda been a big run.

heehaw453 wrote:If you look at the ULL location on the 12z GFS it's really in a decent location when you look at the heights.  That ought to be BM or even inside, but the issue is the lack of consolidation with its mid-levels.  Look at all the bumps to its NE meaning its disorganized and not at a point where it can come up.  If this was better consolidated you'd have a blizzard. That's why the progressive flow hurts us because it doesn't give that time.  

Also easy to correct.

After seeing these trends I should take another two days off and see where we are on Wednesday. All of these things are easy to fix but models won’t solve them for quite some time.

18Z GFS nice western ridge, but it's a bit of disorganized hot garbage mess.  This would need a lot of consolidation and a much better trough.  Time for changes, but I reckon if you don't see them in next 24-48 hours you ain't gonna...

IMO looking at GFS which has been the winner it is continually more and a more OTS mess, I personally am guessing this will be a complete miss and am making peace with that now, if something changes on 28th or 29th then ill get back in on it but even day 2 or 1 things can go bad.

Jmanley- go enjoy the football brother and step away from the board. Great that you already checked out on next weekends threat but we all know if this trends favorably for us you’ll be back on the bandwagon. Enjoy brother.

So one observation for today is that the operational gfs continues to be an extreme eastern/OTS outlier when compared to its own ensembles, which are much more favorable for hope for a snowier solution. The same can be said for the Euro and it’s respective ensembles. This is typically a red flag and at least makes one wonder if the ops will trend more towards the ensembles. But last storm - it actually was the the opposite. The operational runs insisted on a overamplified and inland storm and the ensembles gradually came to the OPS. I read that the ops are run at a higher resolution than the ensembles and can resolve nuances better. So typically I’d be happy that the ops are such stark outliers - but this winter, who the hell knows. But another factor to keep an eye on this week!

dsix85 wrote:Jmanley- go enjoy the football brother and step away from the board. Great that you already checked out on next weekends threat but we all know if this trends favorably for us you’ll be back on the bandwagon. Enjoy brother.

Of course, and I have not checked in much over the past 5 days. I do not watch sports not my thing but I def have plenty of other things to do. Of course I will be back if something looks good.

MattyICE wrote:So one observation for today is that the operational gfs continues to be an extreme eastern/OTS outlier when compared to its own ensembles, which are much more favorable for hope for a snowier solution. The same can be said for the Euro and it’s respective ensembles. This is typically a red flag and at least makes one wonder if the ops will trend more towards the ensembles. But last storm - it actually was the the opposite. The operational runs insisted on a overamplified and inland storm and the ensembles gradually came to the OPS. I read that the ops are run at a higher resolution than the ensembles and can resolve nuances better. So typically I’d be happy that the ops are such stark outliers - but this winter, who the hell knows. But another factor to keep an eye on this week!

Very true and you have a valid point, I forgot the skew between the two on both models, def a red flag. Which will be right? Your guess is as good as mine, obviously we know model hugging isn't going to do anything which is why I check them far less than ever before this year and wait to see what you guys post of value.

I'd pay money for something with low probability but still potential to track over an extended period of guaranteed cold and dry or wet and warm. It's just a secret addiction of mine.

jmanley32 wrote:

dsix85 wrote:Jmanley- go enjoy the football brother and step away from the board. Great that you already checked out on next weekends threat but we all know if this trends favorably for us you’ll be back on the bandwagon. Enjoy brother.

Of course, and I have not checked in much over the past 5 days. I do not watch sports not my thing but I def have plenty of other things to do.  Of course I will be back if something looks good.

Something told me this was the case. 

We'll see what happens with next weekend's storm...

18Z Euro ensembles.  Only goes out to 144 hours.  Clearly this latest run if further west than 12Z.  And some real bombs well inside the BM.

Great comparison of last 4 runs. PNA spike if it's real is going to save this storm.
The energy does not come into good ROABs until Tuesday so sit tight until then.
If need be stay away until Wednesday.

The EPS control mean slp is slightly inside the BM and it's a bomb that drops 24 mb in 12 hours.  This is the ULL and I think if we trend to something like this then it's possible the ULL gets captured and rapid consolidation and intensification can occur with the mid-levels.  This latitude of an ULL exit off the coast is ideal IF we can get consolidation of the storm and that's what i start seeing. This would most likely tilt the trough more negative than neutral.