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Long Range Discussion 23.0

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Long Range Discussion 23.0 - Page 4 Empty Re: Long Range Discussion 23.0

Post by heehaw453 Sun Jan 23, 2022 1:12 pm

nutleyblizzard wrote:Long Range Discussion 23.0 - Page 4 Gfs_z510
Last 3 runs of the GFS…

The ridge is good on 12Z, but the progressive flow doesn't allow for development of the storm.

We need to see things
slow down
n/s s/w drop further west
n/s s/w be much stronger than modeled.

Give us at least one of the 3 and then we have a shot...

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Post by heehaw453 Sun Jan 23, 2022 1:24 pm

This is a very good ridge on the 12Z Euro. Have no idea how it affects things, but if we could just slow things down a bit for consolidation...

Long Range Discussion 23.0 - Page 4 Euro44

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Post by heehaw453 Sun Jan 23, 2022 1:50 pm

If you look at the ULL location on the 12z GFS it's really in a decent location when you look at the heights.  That ought to be BM or even inside, but the issue is the lack of consolidation with its mid-levels.  Look at all the bumps to its NE meaning its disorganized and not at a point where it can come up.  If this was better consolidated you'd have a blizzard. That's why the progressive flow hurts us because it doesn't give that time.  

Long Range Discussion 23.0 - Page 4 Gfsull13

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Post by dsix85 Sun Jan 23, 2022 1:59 pm

I think there are enough pieces at play though to be excited at the though of a potential HECS- I get we’ve been burned by the progressive nature of the pattern but I’m hopeful something gives

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Post by dsix85 Sun Jan 23, 2022 1:59 pm

I think there are enough pieces at play though to be excited at the though of a potential HECS- I get we’ve been burned by the progressive nature of the pattern but I’m hopeful something gives

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Post by heehaw453 Sun Jan 23, 2022 2:03 pm

dsix85 wrote:I think there are enough pieces at play though to be excited at the though of a potential HECS- I get we’ve been burned by the progressive nature of the pattern but I’m hopeful something gives

Yeah and I'm showing something at D6 which no doubt will change considerably by D3. I think though I'm at peace with this one just not working out. It's been that kind of season.

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Post by MattyICE Sun Jan 23, 2022 2:08 pm

All good points. I think another potential positive to take a look towards is how the early/mid-week system pulls out. While we can’t just pull a -NAO out of nowhere maybe there’s a way for the first system to establish itself as a sort of pseudo and transient 50/50 Low. Anything to slow that flow down, as heehaw said.

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Post by dsix85 Sun Jan 23, 2022 2:33 pm

Good point Matty. If there’s a way for that system to slow down and stall somewhere off the east coast and create a traffic jam
Of sorts maybe it puts the breaks on the progressive flow

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Post by amugs Sun Jan 23, 2022 3:10 pm

This is telling by the Euro - OP is such an outlier against its own ENS support. RED FLAG!

Long Range Discussion 23.0 - Page 4 FJz7bGFXEAI9nCn?format=jpg&name=large

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Post by heehaw453 Sun Jan 23, 2022 3:30 pm

LoL! I guess I shouldn't laugh though because at D6 pretty much all options are on the table. Can't say that at D3, but right now probably true.

Long Range Discussion 23.0 - Page 4 Cfs10


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Long Range Discussion 23.0 - Page 4 Empty Re: Long Range Discussion 23.0

Post by nutleyblizzard Sun Jan 23, 2022 4:09 pm

Long Range Discussion 23.0 - Page 4 Jma_ap10
JMA with a big hit
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Post by dsix85 Sun Jan 23, 2022 4:21 pm

Is it fair to say today has been an overall positive trend for next weekend?

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Long Range Discussion 23.0 - Page 4 Empty Re: Long Range Discussion 23.0

Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jan 23, 2022 4:25 pm

nutleyblizzard wrote:Long Range Discussion 23.0 - Page 4 Gfs_z510
Last 3 runs of the GFS…

I’ve kept quiet lately because we know models will change run to run. However, this is the single most positive trends I’ve seen and it needs to continue if this storm stands a chance. I’ve said all along the reason I like this time frame (or did like this time frame) was the +PNA and east based -NAO. Over the last 2-3 days, we have seen modeling trend significantly worse with these features. Meaning the NAO is more positive and the PNA is more negative. Without these, kiss the storm goodbye.

There’s a small little short wave crashing into the ridge off the Pacific and it’s causing the PNA ridge to roll forward. If we can keep this short wave west or slow it down it would increase odds of a major snowstorm next week by nearly two fold.

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jan 23, 2022 4:28 pm

heehaw453 wrote:This is a very good ridge on the 12Z Euro.  Have no idea how it affects things, but if we could just slow things down a bit for consolidation...

Long Range Discussion 23.0 - Page 4 Euro44

Euro seems to be holding southern energy back which plays into its bias. Correct that and this woulda been a big run.

heehaw453 wrote:If you look at the ULL location on the 12z GFS it's really in a decent location when you look at the heights.  That ought to be BM or even inside, but the issue is the lack of consolidation with its mid-levels.  Look at all the bumps to its NE meaning its disorganized and not at a point where it can come up.  If this was better consolidated you'd have a blizzard. That's why the progressive flow hurts us because it doesn't give that time.  

Long Range Discussion 23.0 - Page 4 Gfsull13

Also easy to correct.

After seeing these trends I should take another two days off and see where we are on Wednesday. All of these things are easy to fix but models won’t solve them for quite some time.

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Post by heehaw453 Sun Jan 23, 2022 5:33 pm

18Z GFS nice western ridge, but it's a bit of disorganized hot garbage mess.  This would need a lot of consolidation and a much better trough.  Time for changes, but I reckon if you don't see them in next 24-48 hours you ain't gonna...

Long Range Discussion 23.0 - Page 4 18zgfs10

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Jan 23, 2022 5:48 pm

IMO looking at GFS which has been the winner it is continually more and a more OTS mess, I personally am guessing this will be a complete miss and am making peace with that now, if something changes on 28th or 29th then ill get back in on it but even day 2 or 1 things can go bad.
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Post by dsix85 Sun Jan 23, 2022 5:55 pm

Jmanley- go enjoy the football brother and step away from the board. Great that you already checked out on next weekends threat but we all know if this trends favorably for us you’ll be back on the bandwagon. Enjoy brother.

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Post by MattyICE Sun Jan 23, 2022 6:26 pm

So one observation for today is that the operational gfs continues to be an extreme eastern/OTS outlier when compared to its own ensembles, which are much more favorable for hope for a snowier solution. The same can be said for the Euro and it’s respective ensembles. This is typically a red flag and at least makes one wonder if the ops will trend more towards the ensembles. But last storm - it actually was the the opposite. The operational runs insisted on a overamplified and inland storm and the ensembles gradually came to the OPS. I read that the ops are run at a higher resolution than the ensembles and can resolve nuances better. So typically I’d be happy that the ops are such stark outliers - but this winter, who the hell knows. But another factor to keep an eye on this week!

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Jan 23, 2022 6:31 pm

dsix85 wrote:Jmanley- go enjoy the football brother and step away from the board. Great that you already checked out on next weekends threat but we all know if this trends favorably for us you’ll be back on the bandwagon. Enjoy brother.
Of course, and I have not checked in much over the past 5 days. I do not watch sports not my thing but I def have plenty of other things to do. Of course I will be back if something looks good.
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Jan 23, 2022 6:33 pm

MattyICE wrote:So one observation for today is that the operational gfs continues to be an extreme eastern/OTS outlier when compared to its own ensembles, which are much more favorable for hope for a snowier solution. The same can be said for the Euro and it’s respective ensembles. This is typically a red flag and at least makes one wonder if the ops will trend more towards the ensembles. But last storm - it actually was the the opposite. The operational runs insisted on a overamplified and inland storm and the ensembles gradually came to the OPS. I read that the ops are run at a higher resolution than the ensembles and can resolve nuances better. So typically I’d be happy that the ops are such stark outliers - but this winter, who the hell knows. But another factor to keep an eye on this week!
Very true and you have a valid point, I forgot the skew between the two on both models, def a red flag. Which will be right? Your guess is as good as mine, obviously we know model hugging isn't going to do anything which is why I check them far less than ever before this year and wait to see what you guys post of value.
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Post by crippo84 Sun Jan 23, 2022 6:50 pm

I'd pay money for something with low probability but still potential to track over an extended period of guaranteed cold and dry or wet and warm. It's just a secret addiction of mine.
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Post by Irish Sun Jan 23, 2022 7:01 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
dsix85 wrote:Jmanley- go enjoy the football brother and step away from the board. Great that you already checked out on next weekends threat but we all know if this trends favorably for us you’ll be back on the bandwagon. Enjoy brother.
Of course, and I have not checked in much over the past 5 days. I do not watch sports not my thing but I def have plenty of other things to do.  Of course I will be back if something looks good.

Something told me this was the case. 

We'll see what happens with next weekend's storm...

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Post by heehaw453 Sun Jan 23, 2022 8:21 pm

18Z Euro ensembles.  Only goes out to 144 hours.  Clearly this latest run if further west than 12Z.  And some real bombs well inside the BM.

Long Range Discussion 23.0 - Page 4 18zeps10

Long Range Discussion 23.0 - Page 4 12zeps10

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Post by amugs Sun Jan 23, 2022 8:35 pm

Long Range Discussion 23.0 - Page 4 Fj0p5t10


Great comparison of last 4 runs. PNA spike if it's real is going to save this storm.
The energy does not come into good ROABs until Tuesday so sit tight until then.
If need be stay away until Wednesday.

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Post by heehaw453 Sun Jan 23, 2022 8:38 pm

The EPS control mean slp is slightly inside the BM and it's a bomb that drops 24 mb in 12 hours.  This is the ULL and I think if we trend to something like this then it's possible the ULL gets captured and rapid consolidation and intensification can occur with the mid-levels.  This latitude of an ULL exit off the coast is ideal IF we can get consolidation of the storm and that's what i start seeing. This would most likely tilt the trough more negative than neutral.

Long Range Discussion 23.0 - Page 4 Epscon10


Last edited by heehaw453 on Sun Jan 23, 2022 8:46 pm; edited 1 time in total

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