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Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase'

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Jan 26, 2022 1:47 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase' - Page 6 C506ee10

As Jack Nicholson famously said in Anger Management…

Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase' - Page 6 8ffb2810
COUP FOR ME!! I just said this!!
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Jan 26, 2022 1:48 pm

Look at those images theres a LP center well next to the coast, could that be the LP the Euro chased the other one? If so this should have been a monster run.
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Post by heehaw453 Wed Jan 26, 2022 1:51 pm

hyde345 wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:
hyde345 wrote:The takes on here are too funny. NYC still gets 6-12 using blend of Euro/Nam. People need to chill. Still 60 hours from start time. People who really need to worry are N and W.

The bust potential on this system is high.  Anyone outside of SNE and Eastern LI should set themselves up for that IMO.

It is but still way too early to throw in the towel. It could also trend west in next 24 hours. We just don't know right now. If it still looks the same 12z tomorrow then thats a different story.

I absolutely agree with you not to throw in any towel. Bust can go high/low in these types of systems. One cannot know the intricacies of a phased event sometimes right up to the point of when it's occurring. But it's delicate process and has to go "just right". What is has going for it more so than Juno is the trough is further back and the phasing process starts in the middle of the country as opposed to over the Atlantic. But nonetheless this could very well be a bust right down to the I95.

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Post by hyde345 Wed Jan 26, 2022 1:53 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Look at those images theres a LP center well next to the coast, could that be the LP the Euro chased the other one? If so this should have been a monster run.

That looks like classic convective feedback. This is why it's too early to throw in the towel. There is a lot going on with this setup and it's very dynamic. 00z runs will be very important.
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Post by Irish Wed Jan 26, 2022 1:57 pm

TheAresian wrote:
Irish wrote:Wow, incredible how this has swung in just 24 hours!  I need to get a job in meteorology!  To be this wrong, this often and still have a job, is great. And I understand that it's a tough business but there's so much room for error.

There has to be a ton of room for error. Everybody wants the forecast for their backyard, but we saw it the other day when the cold snap came through that 20 miles can make a 5 to 10 degree difference. A couple of degrees and BOOM! 10 inches of snow becomes an inch of rain and everybody thinks you're an idiot.

Exactly that's why it's a great field to be in. You can think you have a great grasp on a system and then bam, completely wrong. If that's how it worked in my field, education, I'd be screwed and out of a job.

Anyhow, I love the tracking, regardless of the outcome. Just hoping for a nice storm.

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Post by aiannone Wed Jan 26, 2022 1:58 pm

Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase' - Page 6 Ab814510
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Post by lglickman1 Wed Jan 26, 2022 2:00 pm

hyde345 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Look at those images theres a LP center well next to the coast, could that be the LP the Euro chased the other one? If so this should have been a monster run.

That looks like classic convective feedback. This is why it's too early to throw in the towel. There is a lot going on with this setup and it's very dynamic. 00z runs will be very important.

But this is assuming the Euro is even on the right track, which it has not been the last few storms. The other models other than the NAM never seemed to enthused and now are back to showing a far east solution. Who knows maybe with tonight's data things will trees back for favorably.

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Jan 26, 2022 2:01 pm

Please someone post or comment on the EPS, my thinking it is well west of the operationa, looking at the operational its surface is a mess, I would agree to disregard the storm at least when its off coast.
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 26, 2022 2:01 pm

At this point I think it is impossible to deny the east trend, and that the big-time solutions we once saw are probably not coming back. Meaning, the tucked in low inside of the BM and delivering widespread 1-2' amounts across the region. There's too much southern energy getting left behind, and the timing at which the northern energy dives southward promotes later phasing. There will be a phase and a massive storm, it's just not going to work out for everyone on the board to their liking. People will be disappointed.

Looking over things while on a work break, I am seeing why models have trended east and why the GFS has been fairly consistent. I have to say, the GFS has done tremendous work this winter. Yes it has its run to run inconsistencies, but at the end of the day, it seems to have the final solution more often than not.

What I'm thinking is a Roidzilla does develop - a powerful one - it unfortunately will track well off the coast. That said, I think all of eastern NJ, including NE NJ, NYC, the shore and of course Long Island will be in line to see moderate to heavy snow and moderate accumulations. There will be a cut-off to the west and north that will absolutely suck, but tis' the way things are going I guess.

I will narrow in on the details and release a 1st call snow map possibly later on tonight.

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Post by nutleyblizzard Wed Jan 26, 2022 2:04 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Please someone post or comment on the EPS, my thinking it is well west of the operationa, looking at the operational its surface is a mess, I would agree to disregard the storm at least when its off coast.
EPS are east.
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 26, 2022 2:06 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Please someone post or comment on the EPS, my thinking it is well west of the operationa, looking at the operational its surface is a mess, I would agree to disregard the storm at least when its off coast.

Way east

Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase' - Page 6 0-EC576-F6-5-C32-4485-A9-C2-8-B4-A51-D3-F060-thumb-png-13c53f422017e95e157c100c48ec4302

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Jan 26, 2022 2:10 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Please someone post or comment on the EPS, my thinking it is well west of the operationa, looking at the operational its surface is a mess, I would agree to disregard the storm at least when its off coast.

Way east

Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase' - Page 6 0-EC576-F6-5-C32-4485-A9-C2-8-B4-A51-D3-F060-thumb-png-13c53f422017e95e157c100c48ec4302
Jimminy Christmas!! If anyone gets that reference let me know. Thats aweful, well hopefully we can squeeze something out of this, honestly either way I am going to be disappointed because though I love any snow the thought of such a mega storm not giving us the blast we had hoped for is beyond a letdown. But I digress and will deal with whatever comes. Is it possible the models are all off and that recon will straighten it all out or as you stated are the eastern solutions just not deniable at all. What was the boxing day blizzard looking like on models this far out? Because it pulled a 180 on us.
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Post by phil155 Wed Jan 26, 2022 2:13 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:At this point I think it is impossible to deny the east trend, and that the big-time solutions we once saw are probably not coming back. Meaning, the tucked in low inside of the BM and delivering widespread 1-2' amounts across the region. There's too much southern energy getting left behind, and the timing at which the northern energy dives southward promotes later phasing. There will be a phase and a massive storm, it's just not going to work out for everyone on the board to their liking. People will be disappointed.

Looking over things while on a work break, I am seeing why models have trended east and why the GFS has been fairly consistent. I have to say, the GFS has done tremendous work this winter. Yes it has its run to run inconsistencies, but at the end of the day, it seems to have the final solution more often than not.

What I'm thinking is a Roidzilla does develop - a powerful one - it unfortunately will track well off the coast. That said, I think all of eastern NJ, including NE NJ, NYC, the shore and of course Long Island will be in line to see moderate to heavy snow and moderate accumulations. There will be a cut-off to the west and north that will absolutely suck, but tis' the way things are going I guess.

Very well said and I agree 100%, likely going to get a solid storm but probably not a blockbuster

I will narrow in on the details and release a 1st call snow map possibly later on tonight.

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Post by amugs Wed Jan 26, 2022 2:36 pm

The 500 map was still good folks for NYC Metro not insane blockbuster - it was literally 2-3 hrs later in phasing which allows this to travel/slip that much more east. That has been the trend ALL friggin' winter.
THAT IS ALL a sliver of time!!!
Windshield wiper effects.
Yes it did hold back the energy in SW and has now for 4 consecutive runs which is was always known bias and is not a good trend, not just one run.
Energy should be fully ingested into model by 0Z tonight so we'll get a clearer view as to where this is going.
Like to hear what Rayno has to say.
Frank started teh thread and jinxed us period. Banish to OTI Sector 13.


Last edited by amugs on Wed Jan 26, 2022 2:38 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Post by aiannone Wed Jan 26, 2022 2:37 pm

12z EPS:
Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase' - Page 6 27285610
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Post by amugs Wed Jan 26, 2022 2:38 pm

aiannone wrote:12z EPS:
Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase' - Page 6 27285610

Moderate snowstorm for NYC metro

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Post by frank 638 Wed Jan 26, 2022 2:39 pm

aiannone wrote:12z EPS:
Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase' - Page 6 27285610
i hate to say I will be happy with 8 to 12

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Post by Carvin Wed Jan 26, 2022 2:40 pm

That’s 10 to 1 we should easily be in the 15 to 1 right

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Post by amugs Wed Jan 26, 2022 2:41 pm

Just for close up purposes still a good storm if it holds of course

Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase' - Page 6 Index.png.138f618a525bdd8c0a39b30a523958b9

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Post by bloc1357 Wed Jan 26, 2022 2:43 pm

amugs wrote:
aiannone wrote:12z EPS:
Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase' - Page 6 27285610

Moderate snowstorm for NYC metro

Agree! All of a sudden 8-12 isn't a good storm?? Always temper expectations on those monster numbers!! 9.99 times out of 10 they are fantasy numbers. Most of us have lived in the northeast our entire lives how many 24-36 storms have we seen....a handful at the absolute best! and I'm 45 years old.

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Jan 26, 2022 2:43 pm

frank 638 wrote:
aiannone wrote:12z EPS:
Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase' - Page 6 27285610
i hate to say I will be happy with 8 to 12
Yeah it does look to be a decent storm for us, biggest one yet. It is possible it moves back west a bit and being that shows 6+ it means some members are still more. Lets see tonight, just got some coffee about to meet with a client and am refueling for tonight praying I can go to sleep happy.
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Post by RJB8525 Wed Jan 26, 2022 2:44 pm

amugs wrote:Just for close up purposes still a good storm if it holds of course

Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase' - Page 6 Index.png.138f618a525bdd8c0a39b30a523958b9

I'd sign the dotted line for that
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Jan 26, 2022 2:44 pm

amugs wrote:Just for close up purposes still a good storm if it holds of course

Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase' - Page 6 Index.png.138f618a525bdd8c0a39b30a523958b9
Wow 32 on LI, how does LI get such insane ratios, cuz the regular shows about 15 inches so thats 20:1!! Shift that not even 50 miles west and we are all back in the godzilla at least.  Mugs thanks for the boost post.  Tonight will be telling.
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Post by hyde345 Wed Jan 26, 2022 2:46 pm

amugs wrote:Just for close up purposes still a good storm if it holds of course

Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase' - Page 6 Index.png.138f618a525bdd8c0a39b30a523958b9

The way things are going I will sign up for 6 inches IMBY right now.
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Post by crippo84 Wed Jan 26, 2022 2:58 pm

Who else is praying the NAM keeps with its solution this evening?
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