Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase'

Wow, incredible how this has swung in just 24 hours! I need to get a job in meteorology! To be this wrong, this often and still have a job, is great. And I understand that it's a tough business but there's so much room for error.

12z Euro Crapola (warranted with high ratio)

Euro looked good for Long Island, Central and South Jersey

Saw a frame on another board and the ridge out west seemed more amped even though the storm is more east. Wouldn’t you expect more of a chance for a capture and west track?

12z Euro non Crapola

Not buy it. Carry on.

Everyone focused on the surface and snow maps. This isnt Thrusday, its Wed.

Problem is...everyone wants to be the jackpot! and people see those crazy snow maps! Many more times than not the entire area of people on this board will not be the jackpot...some will and some will not. People just need to temper expectations. 8-12 or maybe more for long island is not a bad storm.

Irish wrote:Wow, incredible how this has swung in just 24 hours!  I need to get a job in meteorology!  To be this wrong, this often and still have a job, is great. And I understand that it's a tough business but there's so much room for error.

There has to be a ton of room for error. Everybody wants the forecast for their backyard, but we saw it the other day when the cold snap came through that 20 miles can make a 5 to 10 degree difference. A couple of degrees and BOOM! 10 inches of snow becomes an inch of rain and everybody thinks you're an idiot.

aiannone wrote:12z Euro non Crapola

Give the Euro time and those numbers will come in line with the GFS..

TheAresian wrote:

Irish wrote:Wow, incredible how this has swung in just 24 hours!  I need to get a job in meteorology!  To be this wrong, this often and still have a job, is great. And I understand that it's a tough business but there's so much room for error.

There has to be a ton of room for error. Everybody wants the forecast for their backyard, but we saw it the other day when the cold snap came through that 20 miles can make a 5 to 10 degree difference. A couple of degrees and BOOM! 10 inches of snow becomes an inch of rain and everybody thinks you're an idiot.

Figured it should be posted a second time

After seeing the snow map though a sharp cutoff I am in the crosshairs of 4-6 or 6-10, that def is not a bad storm, nothing prolific but also we do not need a swing back west by much and it can be huge again, that recon data tonight will be telling I think.

The Euro close off was not nearly as good as 06Z and closer to 00Z last night. It's too close for comfort IMO and having to depend on a really good phase is a lot to ask for. I'm just saying I think the downside probability far exceeds the upside probability ATTM. And when that happens we just don't tend to do well.

The takes on here are too funny. NYC still gets 6-12 using blend of Euro/Nam. People need to chill. Still 60 hours from start time. People who really need to worry are N and W.

hyde345 wrote:The takes on here are too funny. NYC still gets 6-12 using blend of Euro/Nam. People need to chill. Still 60 hours from start time. People who really need to worry are N and W.

Like me who probably won't see more than an inch or two.

mikeypizano wrote:

hyde345 wrote:The takes on here are too funny. NYC still gets 6-12 using blend of Euro/Nam. People need to chill. Still 60 hours from start time. People who really need to worry are N and W.

Like me who probably won't see more than an inch or two.

yep lol

Irish wrote:Wow, incredible how this has swung in just 24 hours!  I need to get a job in meteorology!  To be this wrong, this often and still have a job, is great. And I understand that it's a tough business but there's so much room for error.

Phasing systems are probably the highest bust potentials in either direction.

Sorry I’m not buying the EURO run. How does a rapidly intensifying low right of NC with an improved western ridge and trough no less suddenly jump ENE like that. Doesn’t make sense.If anything I was fearing that it would end up as a coastal hugger giving some areas mixing issues. I would expect the EPS to end up west of the OP.

mikeypizano wrote:

hyde345 wrote:The takes on here are too funny. NYC still gets 6-12 using blend of Euro/Nam. People need to chill. Still 60 hours from start time. People who really need to worry are N and W.

Like me who probably won't see more than an inch or two.

Agreed where you are at and if this storm phases late and sloppy it'll be minimal straight down to the 95.

mikeypizano wrote:

hyde345 wrote:The takes on here are too funny. NYC still gets 6-12 using blend of Euro/Nam. People need to chill. Still 60 hours from start time. People who really need to worry are N and W.

Like me who probably won't see more than an inch or two.

It's possible, same for me, but way too early to throw in the towel.

hyde345 wrote:The takes on here are too funny. NYC still gets 6-12 using blend of Euro/Nam. People need to chill. Still 60 hours from start time. People who really need to worry are N and W.

The bust potential on this system is high. Anyone outside of SNE and Eastern LI should set themselves up for that IMO.

nutleyblizzard wrote:Sorry I’m not buying the EURO run. How does a rapidly intensifying low right of NC with an improved western ridge and trough no less suddenly jump ENE like that. Doesn’t make sense.If anything I was fearing that it would end up as a coastal hugger giving some areas mixing issues. I would expect the EPS to end up west of the OP.

It looks to me it may be chasing convection, I hope the ensembles at least show some crazy hits still.

I really think the extra weather balloons and recon might change things drastically for the worse or better tonight, IMO just from what i am reading here it may go in our favor due to the things that seem wonky.

heehaw453 wrote:

hyde345 wrote:The takes on here are too funny. NYC still gets 6-12 using blend of Euro/Nam. People need to chill. Still 60 hours from start time. People who really need to worry are N and W.

The bust potential on this system is high.  Anyone outside of SNE and Eastern LI should set themselves up for that IMO.

It is but still way too early to throw in the towel. It could also trend west in next 24 hours. We just don't know right now. If it still looks the same 12z tomorrow then thats a different story.

As Jack Nicholson famously said in Anger Management…