NJ Strong Weather Forum


Join the forum, it's quick and easy

NJ Strong Weather Forum
NJ Strong Weather Forum
Would you like to react to this message? Create an account in a few clicks or log in to continue.

Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase'

+51
DWay
Bwtr
Quietace
Joe Snow
Sanchize06
JT33
Zhukov1945
uanswer2me
gigs68
billg315
freezerburn
dolphins222
rb924119
hurrysundown23
dsix85
docstox12
crippo84
lglickman1
SoulSingMG
mikeypizano
TheAresian
moleson
Fededle22
skinsfan1177
Wheezer
Artechmetals
Irish
weatherwatchermom
Dunnzoo
bloc1357
Scullybutcher
hyde345
SNOW MAN
richb521
RJB8525
Carvin
essexcountypete
nutleyblizzard
CPcantmeasuresnow
phil155
MattyICE
amugs
mmanisca
bobjohnsonforthehall
aiannone
sroc4
SENJsnowman
jmanley32
frank 638
heehaw453
Frank_Wx
55 posters

Page 5 of 31 Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 ... 18 ... 31  Next

Go down

Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase' - Page 5 Empty Re: Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase'

Post by skinsfan1177 Wed Jan 26, 2022 1:19 pm

Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase' - Page 5 61f19010
skinsfan1177
skinsfan1177
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 4475
Reputation : 35
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 44
Location : Point Pleasant Boro

Back to top Go down

Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase' - Page 5 Empty Re: Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase'

Post by Scullybutcher Wed Jan 26, 2022 1:20 pm

Euro looked good for Long Island, Central and South Jersey
Scullybutcher
Scullybutcher
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 536
Reputation : 16
Join date : 2013-02-06
Location : North Smithtown, western Suffolk county, long island

Back to top Go down

Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase' - Page 5 Empty Re: Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase'

Post by richb521 Wed Jan 26, 2022 1:20 pm

Saw a frame on another board and the ridge out west seemed more amped even though the storm is more east. Wouldn’t you expect more of a chance for a capture and west track?

richb521

Posts : 36
Reputation : 3
Join date : 2014-01-19
Age : 48
Location : Hillsborough, NJ

Back to top Go down

Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase' - Page 5 Empty Re: Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase'

Post by aiannone Wed Jan 26, 2022 1:21 pm

12z Euro non Crapola
Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase' - Page 5 Sn10_a49
aiannone
aiannone
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4523
Reputation : 92
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Saint James, LI (Northwest Suffolk Co.)

Back to top Go down

Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase' - Page 5 Empty Re: Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase'

Post by moleson Wed Jan 26, 2022 1:21 pm

Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase' - Page 5 0*7n4asHdQgDt-nYz1
moleson
moleson

Posts : 28
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2013-01-07

Back to top Go down

Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase' - Page 5 Empty Re: Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase'

Post by sroc4 Wed Jan 26, 2022 1:23 pm

Not buy it. Carry on.

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 7463
Reputation : 301
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

Back to top Go down

Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase' - Page 5 Empty Re: Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase'

Post by sroc4 Wed Jan 26, 2022 1:25 pm

Everyone focused on the surface and snow maps. This isnt Thrusday, its Wed.

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 7463
Reputation : 301
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

hyde345, SoulSingMG and Bwtr like this post

Back to top Go down

Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase' - Page 5 Empty Re: Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase'

Post by bloc1357 Wed Jan 26, 2022 1:25 pm

Problem is...everyone wants to be the jackpot! and people see those crazy snow maps! Many more times than not the entire area of people on this board will not be the jackpot...some will and some will not. People just need to temper expectations. 8-12 or maybe more for long island is not a bad storm.

bloc1357
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 341
Reputation : 10
Join date : 2013-03-05
Age : 45
Location : West Babylon, NY - 11704

Irish and Bwtr like this post

Back to top Go down

Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase' - Page 5 Empty Re: Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase'

Post by TheAresian Wed Jan 26, 2022 1:26 pm

Irish wrote:Wow, incredible how this has swung in just 24 hours!  I need to get a job in meteorology!  To be this wrong, this often and still have a job, is great. And I understand that it's a tough business but there's so much room for error.

There has to be a ton of room for error. Everybody wants the forecast for their backyard, but we saw it the other day when the cold snap came through that 20 miles can make a 5 to 10 degree difference. A couple of degrees and BOOM! 10 inches of snow becomes an inch of rain and everybody thinks you're an idiot.

TheAresian
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 125
Reputation : 10
Join date : 2019-11-13
Location : Painted Post, NY

sroc4, bloc1357, Irish and Bwtr like this post

Back to top Go down

Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase' - Page 5 Empty Re: Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase'

Post by mmanisca Wed Jan 26, 2022 1:28 pm

aiannone wrote:12z Euro non Crapola
Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase' - Page 5 Sn10_a49
Give the Euro time and those numbers will come in line with the GFS..
Sad
mmanisca
mmanisca
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 265
Reputation : 3
Join date : 2013-01-23
Age : 63
Location : Deer Park, Long Island

Back to top Go down

Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase' - Page 5 Empty Re: Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase'

Post by sroc4 Wed Jan 26, 2022 1:30 pm

TheAresian wrote:
Irish wrote:Wow, incredible how this has swung in just 24 hours!  I need to get a job in meteorology!  To be this wrong, this often and still have a job, is great. And I understand that it's a tough business but there's so much room for error.

There has to be a ton of room for error. Everybody wants the forecast for their backyard, but we saw it the other day when the cold snap came through that 20 miles can make a 5 to 10 degree difference. A couple of degrees and BOOM! 10 inches of snow becomes an inch of rain and everybody thinks you're an idiot.


Figured it should be posted a second time

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 7463
Reputation : 301
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

bloc1357, weatherwatchermom and Bwtr like this post

Back to top Go down

Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase' - Page 5 Empty Re: Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase'

Post by jmanley32 Wed Jan 26, 2022 1:32 pm

After seeing the snow map though a sharp cutoff I am in the crosshairs of 4-6 or 6-10, that def is not a bad storm, nothing prolific but also we do not need a swing back west by much and it can be huge again, that recon data tonight will be telling I think.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 19096
Reputation : 107
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 41
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase' - Page 5 Empty Re: Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase'

Post by heehaw453 Wed Jan 26, 2022 1:34 pm

The Euro close off was not nearly as good as 06Z and closer to 00Z last night. It's too close for comfort IMO and having to depend on a really good phase is a lot to ask for. I'm just saying I think the downside probability far exceeds the upside probability ATTM. And when that happens we just don't tend to do well.

heehaw453
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 2537
Reputation : 83
Join date : 2014-01-20
Location : Bedminster Township, PA

Back to top Go down

Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase' - Page 5 Empty Re: Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase'

Post by hyde345 Wed Jan 26, 2022 1:35 pm

The takes on here are too funny. NYC still gets 6-12 using blend of Euro/Nam. People need to chill. Still 60 hours from start time. People who really need to worry are N and W.
hyde345
hyde345
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 1011
Reputation : 48
Join date : 2013-01-08
Location : Hyde Park, NY

bloc1357, agorr1188, phil155 and Bwtr like this post

Back to top Go down

Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase' - Page 5 Empty Re: Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase'

Post by mikeypizano Wed Jan 26, 2022 1:36 pm

hyde345 wrote:The takes on here are too funny. NYC still gets 6-12 using blend of Euro/Nam. People need to chill. Still 60 hours from start time. People who really need to worry are N and W.

Like me who probably won't see more than an inch or two.
mikeypizano
mikeypizano
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 1088
Reputation : 66
Join date : 2017-01-05
Age : 33
Location : Wilkes-Barre/Scranton, PA

RJB8525 likes this post

Back to top Go down

Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase' - Page 5 Empty Re: Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase'

Post by RJB8525 Wed Jan 26, 2022 1:38 pm

mikeypizano wrote:
hyde345 wrote:The takes on here are too funny. NYC still gets 6-12 using blend of Euro/Nam. People need to chill. Still 60 hours from start time. People who really need to worry are N and W.

Like me who probably won't see more than an inch or two.

yep lol
RJB8525
RJB8525
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 1993
Reputation : 28
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 36
Location : Hackettstown, NJ

Back to top Go down

Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase' - Page 5 Empty Re: Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase'

Post by heehaw453 Wed Jan 26, 2022 1:38 pm

Irish wrote:Wow, incredible how this has swung in just 24 hours!  I need to get a job in meteorology!  To be this wrong, this often and still have a job, is great. And I understand that it's a tough business but there's so much room for error.

Phasing systems are probably the highest bust potentials in either direction.

heehaw453
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 2537
Reputation : 83
Join date : 2014-01-20
Location : Bedminster Township, PA

CPcantmeasuresnow, RJB8525, Irish and Bwtr like this post

Back to top Go down

Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase' - Page 5 Empty Re: Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase'

Post by nutleyblizzard Wed Jan 26, 2022 1:38 pm

Sorry I’m not buying the EURO run. How does a rapidly intensifying low right of NC with an improved western ridge and trough no less suddenly jump ENE like that. Doesn’t make sense.If anything I was fearing that it would end up as a coastal hugger giving some areas mixing issues. I would expect the EPS to end up west of the OP.


Last edited by nutleyblizzard on Wed Jan 26, 2022 1:40 pm; edited 1 time in total
nutleyblizzard
nutleyblizzard
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 1853
Reputation : 41
Join date : 2014-01-30
Age : 56
Location : Nutley, new jersey

richb521, Irish and Bwtr like this post

Back to top Go down

Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase' - Page 5 Empty Re: Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase'

Post by heehaw453 Wed Jan 26, 2022 1:40 pm

mikeypizano wrote:
hyde345 wrote:The takes on here are too funny. NYC still gets 6-12 using blend of Euro/Nam. People need to chill. Still 60 hours from start time. People who really need to worry are N and W.

Like me who probably won't see more than an inch or two.

Agreed where you are at and if this storm phases late and sloppy it'll be minimal straight down to the 95.

heehaw453
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 2537
Reputation : 83
Join date : 2014-01-20
Location : Bedminster Township, PA

Back to top Go down

Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase' - Page 5 Empty Re: Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase'

Post by hyde345 Wed Jan 26, 2022 1:40 pm

mikeypizano wrote:
hyde345 wrote:The takes on here are too funny. NYC still gets 6-12 using blend of Euro/Nam. People need to chill. Still 60 hours from start time. People who really need to worry are N and W.

Like me who probably won't see more than an inch or two.

It's possible, same for me, but way too early to throw in the towel.


Last edited by hyde345 on Wed Jan 26, 2022 1:42 pm; edited 1 time in total
hyde345
hyde345
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 1011
Reputation : 48
Join date : 2013-01-08
Location : Hyde Park, NY

Back to top Go down

Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase' - Page 5 Empty Re: Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase'

Post by heehaw453 Wed Jan 26, 2022 1:41 pm

hyde345 wrote:The takes on here are too funny. NYC still gets 6-12 using blend of Euro/Nam. People need to chill. Still 60 hours from start time. People who really need to worry are N and W.

The bust potential on this system is high. Anyone outside of SNE and Eastern LI should set themselves up for that IMO.

heehaw453
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 2537
Reputation : 83
Join date : 2014-01-20
Location : Bedminster Township, PA

moleson and phil155 like this post

Back to top Go down

Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase' - Page 5 Empty Re: Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase'

Post by jmanley32 Wed Jan 26, 2022 1:41 pm

nutleyblizzard wrote:Sorry I’m not buying the EURO run. How does a rapidly intensifying low right of NC with an improved western ridge and trough no less suddenly jump ENE like that. Doesn’t make sense.If anything I was fearing that it would end up as a coastal hugger giving some areas mixing issues. I would expect the EPS to end up west of the OP.
It looks to me it may be chasing convection, I hope the ensembles at least show some crazy hits still.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 19096
Reputation : 107
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 41
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase' - Page 5 Empty Re: Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase'

Post by jmanley32 Wed Jan 26, 2022 1:44 pm

I really think the extra weather balloons and recon might change things drastically for the worse or better tonight, IMO just from what i am reading here it may go in our favor due to the things that seem wonky.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 19096
Reputation : 107
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 41
Location : Yonkers, NY

heehaw453 likes this post

Back to top Go down

Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase' - Page 5 Empty Re: Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase'

Post by hyde345 Wed Jan 26, 2022 1:44 pm

heehaw453 wrote:
hyde345 wrote:The takes on here are too funny. NYC still gets 6-12 using blend of Euro/Nam. People need to chill. Still 60 hours from start time. People who really need to worry are N and W.

The bust potential on this system is high.  Anyone outside of SNE and Eastern LI should set themselves up for that IMO.

It is but still way too early to throw in the towel. It could also trend west in next 24 hours. We just don't know right now. If it still looks the same 12z tomorrow then thats a different story.
hyde345
hyde345
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 1011
Reputation : 48
Join date : 2013-01-08
Location : Hyde Park, NY

Back to top Go down

Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase' - Page 5 Empty Re: Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase'

Post by SoulSingMG Wed Jan 26, 2022 1:45 pm

Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase' - Page 5 C506ee10

As Jack Nicholson famously said in Anger Management…

Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase' - Page 5 8ffb2810
SoulSingMG
SoulSingMG
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 2843
Reputation : 74
Join date : 2013-12-11
Location : Long Island City, NY

Back to top Go down

Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase' - Page 5 Empty Re: Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase'

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 5 of 31 Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 ... 18 ... 31  Next

Back to top

- Similar topics

 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum