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Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase'

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Post by Irish Wed Jan 26, 2022 1:18 pm

Wow, incredible how this has swung in just 24 hours! I need to get a job in meteorology! To be this wrong, this often and still have a job, is great. And I understand that it's a tough business but there's so much room for error.

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Post by aiannone Wed Jan 26, 2022 1:19 pm

12z Euro Crapola (warranted with high ratio)
Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase' - Page 5 27280610

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Post by skinsfan1177 Wed Jan 26, 2022 1:19 pm

Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase' - Page 5 61f19010
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Post by Scullybutcher Wed Jan 26, 2022 1:20 pm

Euro looked good for Long Island, Central and South Jersey
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Post by richb521 Wed Jan 26, 2022 1:20 pm

Saw a frame on another board and the ridge out west seemed more amped even though the storm is more east. Wouldn’t you expect more of a chance for a capture and west track?

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Post by aiannone Wed Jan 26, 2022 1:21 pm

12z Euro non Crapola
Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase' - Page 5 Sn10_a49

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Post by moleson Wed Jan 26, 2022 1:21 pm

Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase' - Page 5 0*7n4asHdQgDt-nYz1
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Post by sroc4 Wed Jan 26, 2022 1:23 pm

Not buy it. Carry on.

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
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Post by sroc4 Wed Jan 26, 2022 1:25 pm

Everyone focused on the surface and snow maps. This isnt Thrusday, its Wed.

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
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Post by bloc1357 Wed Jan 26, 2022 1:25 pm

Problem is...everyone wants to be the jackpot! and people see those crazy snow maps! Many more times than not the entire area of people on this board will not be the jackpot...some will and some will not. People just need to temper expectations. 8-12 or maybe more for long island is not a bad storm.

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Post by TheAresian Wed Jan 26, 2022 1:26 pm

Irish wrote:Wow, incredible how this has swung in just 24 hours!  I need to get a job in meteorology!  To be this wrong, this often and still have a job, is great. And I understand that it's a tough business but there's so much room for error.

There has to be a ton of room for error. Everybody wants the forecast for their backyard, but we saw it the other day when the cold snap came through that 20 miles can make a 5 to 10 degree difference. A couple of degrees and BOOM! 10 inches of snow becomes an inch of rain and everybody thinks you're an idiot.

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Post by mmanisca Wed Jan 26, 2022 1:28 pm

aiannone wrote:12z Euro non Crapola
Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase' - Page 5 Sn10_a49
Give the Euro time and those numbers will come in line with the GFS..
Sad
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Post by sroc4 Wed Jan 26, 2022 1:30 pm

TheAresian wrote:
Irish wrote:Wow, incredible how this has swung in just 24 hours!  I need to get a job in meteorology!  To be this wrong, this often and still have a job, is great. And I understand that it's a tough business but there's so much room for error.

There has to be a ton of room for error. Everybody wants the forecast for their backyard, but we saw it the other day when the cold snap came through that 20 miles can make a 5 to 10 degree difference. A couple of degrees and BOOM! 10 inches of snow becomes an inch of rain and everybody thinks you're an idiot.


Figured it should be posted a second time

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Jan 26, 2022 1:32 pm

After seeing the snow map though a sharp cutoff I am in the crosshairs of 4-6 or 6-10, that def is not a bad storm, nothing prolific but also we do not need a swing back west by much and it can be huge again, that recon data tonight will be telling I think.
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Post by heehaw453 Wed Jan 26, 2022 1:34 pm

The Euro close off was not nearly as good as 06Z and closer to 00Z last night. It's too close for comfort IMO and having to depend on a really good phase is a lot to ask for. I'm just saying I think the downside probability far exceeds the upside probability ATTM. And when that happens we just don't tend to do well.

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Post by hyde345 Wed Jan 26, 2022 1:35 pm

The takes on here are too funny. NYC still gets 6-12 using blend of Euro/Nam. People need to chill. Still 60 hours from start time. People who really need to worry are N and W.
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Post by mikeypizano Wed Jan 26, 2022 1:36 pm

hyde345 wrote:The takes on here are too funny. NYC still gets 6-12 using blend of Euro/Nam. People need to chill. Still 60 hours from start time. People who really need to worry are N and W.

Like me who probably won't see more than an inch or two.
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Post by RJB8525 Wed Jan 26, 2022 1:38 pm

mikeypizano wrote:
hyde345 wrote:The takes on here are too funny. NYC still gets 6-12 using blend of Euro/Nam. People need to chill. Still 60 hours from start time. People who really need to worry are N and W.

Like me who probably won't see more than an inch or two.

yep lol
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Post by heehaw453 Wed Jan 26, 2022 1:38 pm

Irish wrote:Wow, incredible how this has swung in just 24 hours!  I need to get a job in meteorology!  To be this wrong, this often and still have a job, is great. And I understand that it's a tough business but there's so much room for error.

Phasing systems are probably the highest bust potentials in either direction.

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Post by nutleyblizzard Wed Jan 26, 2022 1:38 pm

Sorry I’m not buying the EURO run. How does a rapidly intensifying low right of NC with an improved western ridge and trough no less suddenly jump ENE like that. Doesn’t make sense.If anything I was fearing that it would end up as a coastal hugger giving some areas mixing issues. I would expect the EPS to end up west of the OP.


Last edited by nutleyblizzard on Wed Jan 26, 2022 1:40 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by heehaw453 Wed Jan 26, 2022 1:40 pm

mikeypizano wrote:
hyde345 wrote:The takes on here are too funny. NYC still gets 6-12 using blend of Euro/Nam. People need to chill. Still 60 hours from start time. People who really need to worry are N and W.

Like me who probably won't see more than an inch or two.

Agreed where you are at and if this storm phases late and sloppy it'll be minimal straight down to the 95.

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Post by hyde345 Wed Jan 26, 2022 1:40 pm

mikeypizano wrote:
hyde345 wrote:The takes on here are too funny. NYC still gets 6-12 using blend of Euro/Nam. People need to chill. Still 60 hours from start time. People who really need to worry are N and W.

Like me who probably won't see more than an inch or two.

It's possible, same for me, but way too early to throw in the towel.


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Post by heehaw453 Wed Jan 26, 2022 1:41 pm

hyde345 wrote:The takes on here are too funny. NYC still gets 6-12 using blend of Euro/Nam. People need to chill. Still 60 hours from start time. People who really need to worry are N and W.

The bust potential on this system is high. Anyone outside of SNE and Eastern LI should set themselves up for that IMO.

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Jan 26, 2022 1:41 pm

nutleyblizzard wrote:Sorry I’m not buying the EURO run. How does a rapidly intensifying low right of NC with an improved western ridge and trough no less suddenly jump ENE like that. Doesn’t make sense.If anything I was fearing that it would end up as a coastal hugger giving some areas mixing issues. I would expect the EPS to end up west of the OP.
It looks to me it may be chasing convection, I hope the ensembles at least show some crazy hits still.
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Jan 26, 2022 1:44 pm

I really think the extra weather balloons and recon might change things drastically for the worse or better tonight, IMO just from what i am reading here it may go in our favor due to the things that seem wonky.
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Post by hyde345 Wed Jan 26, 2022 1:44 pm

heehaw453 wrote:
hyde345 wrote:The takes on here are too funny. NYC still gets 6-12 using blend of Euro/Nam. People need to chill. Still 60 hours from start time. People who really need to worry are N and W.

The bust potential on this system is high.  Anyone outside of SNE and Eastern LI should set themselves up for that IMO.

It is but still way too early to throw in the towel. It could also trend west in next 24 hours. We just don't know right now. If it still looks the same 12z tomorrow then thats a different story.
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Post by SoulSingMG Wed Jan 26, 2022 1:45 pm

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As Jack Nicholson famously said in Anger Management…

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