Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase'

Frank_Wx wrote:None of us should look nor care about the 18z GFS, but you damn well know we will.

Of course we will. And if it shows a miss we will say "it's an off hour run" and if it buries us we will say "the trend west is back and just because it's an off hour run doesn't mean we cant trust it!"

18z GFS northern vort a bit stronger through 48

GFS is better. More meridional with the northern heights and more southern energy is bring phased into the trough

What a BIG change at 500mb

Dont think its going to translate to the surface, cause you know, that would be too easy

Frank_Wx wrote:What a BIG change at 500mb

Good changes or bad changes?

I can not view what was posted

Frank_Wx wrote:Dont think its going to translate to the surface, cause you know, that would be too easy

I know this has probably been explained before but if there are big improvements in the upper levels why does the surface maps not reflect that? 18z was basically a miss but I know if you say upper levels are good thats what we want.

GFS closes off late yet again. It has not closed off in time even for NYC in many runs. Clearly we are in a bad model cycle w.r.t. a faster developing storm. We have some time, but I think we got to start seeing it 00Z tonight OR 12Z latest tomorrow otherwise this one probably gone.

phil155 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:What a BIG change at 500mb

Good changes or bad changes?

I can not view what was posted

That is odd. Anyone else having an issue?

Positive change, as in more phasing and a trough going neutral a lot faster. The reason why surface did not translate is because too much upper air energy fled the base of the trough despite the better phasing. We need the trough to close off. I thought it was a run in the right direction. Maybe 00z's surprise us.

jmanley32 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:Dont think its going to translate to the surface, cause you know, that would be too easy

I know this has probably been explained before but if there are big improvements in the upper levels why does the surface maps not reflect that? 18z was basically a miss but I know if you say upper levels are good thats what we want.

Could be trying to correct. We'll know soon enough..

Frank_Wx wrote:What a BIG change at 500mb

Don't pay attention  to the surface but it goes neutral earlier BIG dhange. 500 isbhwere it's at for now.

There is no doubt in my mind that we should hav seen a better outcome on the GFS leading up to this image right here.  If 500closes off literally no more than 3-6 hrs earlier this is a different result on the surface.  Based on the amount of eenergy rounding the base of this trough, the depth of the trough and the axis of the trough in this position right here it should have cont to tilt neg and close off S of us rather than E of us IMO, but I am concerned that once again the lack of anything slowing the mean trough down in the Atlantic side prevents the energy to the west that is flattening the NE side of the ridge from pushing the entire mean trough off the coast just a few hours too fast.  

Its still 48hrs out so still trends for better...or worse.  

Is there any chance we go back to the heavy hits we saw and it happening or is that completely off the table and now just focusing on getting a 6 inch storm maybe for NYC? Seems there has just been too much model changes for that to be completely off the table yet, IMO.

As mentioned this primarily comes down to the handling of the northern energy. Massive differences between the 18z NAM and GFS. To be honest, you can tell by the success or failure of this storm just by looking at the northern energy valid Thursday afternoon. We will be able to see early on in the 00z runs what they're doing with it.

amugs wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:What a BIG change at 500mb

Don't pay attention  to the surface but it goes neutral earlier BIG dhange. 500 isbhwere it's at for now.

It's positive on the H5 that's for sure and the storm is deeper because of that, but GFS refuses to close off the ULL until past BM. It has been stubborn as a mule with regard to that close off. And that is the most important thing for sig snowfall chances unfortunately. It must close off close the coast around Ocean City.

Frank_Wx wrote:As mentioned this primarily comes down to the handling of the northern energy. Massive differences between the 18z NAM and GFS. To be honest, you can tell by the success or failure of this storm just by looking at the northern energy valid Thursday afternoon. We will be able to see early on in the 00z runs what they're doing with it.

This still has big dog potential for the I95. When you have a 519 dam closed off ULL anywhere near the BM it must be watched at very least. It's just the GFS is very stubborn on closing it off. Very workable at this range, but I would sure love to see the GFS show the money.

Even Upton is scratching their heads in the latest discussion. Are we watching weather model changes or the Bills v Chiefs divisional all over again? Will this come down to a coin toss? Who ya got?

GFS last 4 run trend with the northern vort. Notice how it's getting sharper and sharper, pointing more south. Hmmmmmmm

If we zoom in closer on the initial energy...looks like 18z GFS is trying to shift slightly east with it too. Not quite where 00z GFS was last night but at least we stopped it from going even more west.

I’ve not chimed in much because even though I’ve been following, I’ve not been intently studying. But from what I’ve seen of the pattern over and near North America, I cannot see this missing east. I honestly just can’t. Quite perplexing to say the least.

@CPcantmeasuresnow , @jmanley32 , @Dunnzoo and @weatherwatchermom reeling the storm in

rb924119 wrote:I’ve not chimed in much because even though I’ve been following, I’ve not been intently studying. But from what I’ve seen of the pattern over and near North America, I cannot see this missing east. I honestly just can’t. Quite perplexing to say the least.

I agree with that based on the ridge/trough axis. However, the closing off part is a wild card.

jmanley32 wrote:Is there any chance we go back to the heavy hits we saw and it happening or is that completely off the table and now just focusing on getting a 6 inch storm maybe for NYC?  Seems there has just been too much model changes for that to be completely off the table yet, IMO.

For NYC IMO anywhere from 2" - 12"+ with this kind of setup. It's that reliant on this storm developing well.

heehaw453 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Is there any chance we go back to the heavy hits we saw and it happening or is that completely off the table and now just focusing on getting a 6 inch storm maybe for NYC?  Seems there has just been too much model changes for that to be completely off the table yet, IMO.

For NYC IMO anywhere from 2" - 12"+ with this kind of setup.  It's that reliant on this storm developing well.

Well then lol, so the two extremes are still plausible, crazy this is less than 48 hrs away. People are go be caught off guard if this gets reeled back in.

Man just looked at the H5 on 18Z GFS. This is literally an hour or two faster development from having dumped dumped 12"+ on NYC. That trough tilt is ominous and not indicative of a miss. Not one bit indicative of a miss for the I95.

When you say I 95 thats kinda confusing to me as it is right along the water, are you saying the general area like my area (NNJ, southern westchester NYC CT, RI etc? I have always wondered what ythe borderlines of _95 area exactly when it comes to weather.

heehaw453 wrote:Man just looked at the H5 on 18Z GFS.  This is literally an hour or two faster development from having dumped dumped 12"+ on NYC.  That trough tilt is ominous and not indicative of a miss.  Not one bit indicative of a miss for the I95.

That totally looks gorgeous, I can't see a miss with that either, too many times when I have seen that look we have had a blockbuster storm. lets hope the LR models just never got this and the 18z NAM was just a fluke and the other SR models which will really start to be in range tonight and tomorrow show the juju.

jmanley32 wrote:When you say I 95 thats kinda confusing to me as it is right along the water, are you saying the general area like my area (NNJ, southern westchester NYC CT, RI etc? I have always wondered what ythe borderlines of _95 area exactly when it comes to weather.

I'm saying from PHL-NYC points east that looks like a major snowfall.