Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase'

NAM is a bit closer to a solution that could be a game changer. It is going to be an interesting evening.

Also hey, 1 low....and it still may not be resolving things perfectly That western low WILL be the dominant low at the end of the day.

970mb. That would be impressive

957mb!!

The NAM is very very very close to showing something special, along the lines of what some of the EPS members were showing. It is so close. All we need is 3 hours of earlier phasing/H5 closing off. 3 HOURS

NAM ULL closes off 3mb deeper and 50 miles further north. Just need this look around Cape May and then rejoice.

Frank_Wx wrote:The NAM is very very very close to showing something special, along the lines of what some of the EPS members were showing. It is so close. All we need is 3 hours of earlier phasing/H5 closing off. 3 HOURS

Is the closing of the low something that models can actually get a grasp on? 3 hours doesn't seem like it is a great deal of time for a model to be off by. Just because it is showing this is there reason it cant close off 3 hours earlier but the model just cant pick that up?

Frank_Wx wrote:The NAM is very very very close to showing something special, along the lines of what some of the EPS members were showing. It is so close. All we need is 3 hours of earlier phasing/H5 closing off. 3 HOURS

But it has not shown that 3 hours earlier at all has it? It has been steadfast at the same mark it seems. Is there any reason to believe it will or could be 3 hrs earlier? That is massive and impressive and if we can get that well west it would be amazing.

WOW!

Frankzilla for Boston

My simple mind looks at it this way. We need it to rain on Cape Cod. It's getting there but the storm wound up is still to far east. Keeps it snowing on the Cape, instead of changing.

Frank_Wx wrote:

so 18z actually moves things east a bit, drops me down 2 inches or so, also drops totals a lot for Mass and eastern CT.

aiannone wrote:WOW!

man that is such a sharp cut off and for NYC area thats way to close for comfort, your in one heck a nice spot. I hope this can pull forther west, and you guys would still be in the better spot, this has a wide area of very heavy totals.

Can someone say.... RATIOS!

aiannone wrote:

Oh Good Lord, that map makes me want to cry, and not tears of joy mind you.

Happy for everyone east of NYC but that is one tough dividing line.

aiannone wrote:

hey we cant lose hope some eps show some of those blues well into nyc area, keep pulling guys!! why does this show so much more than pivotal wx?

I heard on 1010 wins that they have to raise the snow totals

jmanley32 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:

so 18z actually moves things east a bit, drops me down 2 inches or so, also drops totals a lot for Mass and eastern CT.

we got some fishing let’s bring the beast in

Cant call it a Franikzilla for Boston thats our sacred storm name, screw them. We need that for us. I mean 4 ft!! that wouyld criple NYC. And LI congrats with near 30 inches wow. And ya ratios even to coast look to be insane. gonna be cold as heck.

First Warning up out of Holly

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
337 PM EST Thu Jan 27 2022

DEZ003-004-NJZ013-014-020-022>027-281000-
/O.UPG.KPHI.WS.A.0003.220129T0000Z-220130T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KPHI.WS.W.0004.220129T0000Z-220130T0000Z/
Inland Sussex-Delaware Beaches-Western Monmouth-Eastern Monmouth-
Ocean-Atlantic-Cape May-Atlantic Coastal Cape May-
Coastal Atlantic-Coastal Ocean-Southeastern Burlington-
Including the cities of Georgetown, Rehoboth Beach, Freehold,
Sandy Hook, Jackson, Hammonton, Cape May Court House, Ocean City,
Atlantic City, Long Beach Island, and Wharton State Forest
337 PM EST Thu Jan 27 2022

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM FRIDAY TO 7 PM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 9 to 15
inches. Winds gusting as high as 50 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of central and southern New Jersey and
southern Delaware.

* WHEN...From 7 PM Friday to 7 PM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Gusty
winds could bring down tree branches.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow is expected to begin Friday evening in
Delmarva and southern New Jersey, spreading northward overnight
into Saturday morning. Snow may be heavy at times through mid
afternoon Saturday before diminishing Saturday evening. Strong
winds may generate blowing snow and very low visibilities at
times.

Well Mt Holly just raised the WS Watch to a Winter Storm Warning for the whole Shore...and frames 9-15" as likely...

Today we've seen some deeper solutions on Euro/NAM. As Frank said if the ULL can consolidate sooner then it's another animal. Tough to go through this. LoL.