Re: Long Range Thread 24.0

[Frank_Wx]

Long range is zapping whatever enthusiasm I have left to give this winter. If or when the negative PNA emerges, along with a continue positive NAO, that will effectively end our chances of meaningful snowfall. Sure the nuisance snowfall here and there but the big storms will wait until next year. We’ll see if the ensemble outlook changes but for now…not good.

[Irish]

Long range is zapping whatever enthusiasm I have left to give this winter. If or when the negative PNA emerges, along with a continue positive NAO, that will effectively end our chances of meaningful snowfall. Sure the nuisance snowfall here and there but the big storms will wait until next year. We’ll see if the ensemble outlook changes but for now…not good.

Thx for all you guys have done this winter, see you next winter!

[Snow88]

Long range is zapping whatever enthusiasm I have left to give this winter. If or when the negative PNA emerges, along with a continue positive NAO, that will effectively end our chances of meaningful snowfall. Sure the nuisance snowfall here and there but the big storms will wait until next year. We’ll see if the ensemble outlook changes but for now…not good.

A few storm threats in early March then we have to see if the models are right with the AO going negative.

[Snow88]

Long range is zapping whatever enthusiasm I have left to give this winter. If or when the negative PNA emerges, along with a continue positive NAO, that will effectively end our chances of meaningful snowfall. Sure the nuisance snowfall here and there but the big storms will wait until next year. We’ll see if the ensemble outlook changes but for now…not good.

Thx for all you guys have done this winter, see you next winter!

Winter isn't even over yet

[heehaw453]

The you guys have had a crap February so here's a small gift storm?  If this is the 500mb then I'm board for small/mod snow threat.  The AO/NAO is right and this would get squeezed to our South not cut.  The PNA is workable especially if it can link more meridional with the arctic ridge.  It'll come down to if it gets squashed by the TPV and I'd like to see that lift north a bit.  I felt first week of March something could work due to the NAM state starting to turn.  Let's see if the AO/NAO can help us.

[amugs]

How can you give up on March?? It is notorious for massive warm tropical air air and cold arctic air clashes that produce big storms.

Indices have flipped in the AO and NAO to a N to Neutral state and the PV is always a wildcard. Never give up....NEVER.

One thing we need to fix is the trough in the WC, lessen that up and the EPO/WPO/AO/NAO state can bring a good storm.also wavelengths are shortening.

MJO phase 5 ...can not upload any files.

[heehaw453]

How can you give up on March?? It is notorious for massive warm tropical air air and cold arctic air clashes that produce big storms.

Indices have flipped in the AO and NAO to a N to Neutral state and the PV is always a wildcard. Never give up....NEVER.

One thing we need to fix is the trough in the WC, lessen that up and the EPO/WPO/AO/NAO state can bring a good storm.also wavelengths are shortening.

MJO phase 5 ...can not upload any files.

IMO Mugs if we can keep a consistent NAM support for the first 3 weeks of March then the interior and potentially I-95 will have the real threat of a sig snowstorm before we call this a day. If we have to rely on the PAC only in March, then we are done w.r.t. sig snow threats until next year. I'm watching that NAM state and so far I think it's workable for a threat to two.

[dkodgis]

HeeHaw, from your mouth to the groundhog's ears...

[amugs]

End of next week maybe interesting again with EPO, WPO,
AO and NAO going Neutral to Negative. PNA going Neutral

[amugs]

Nice elongation of PV end of next week. Could mean much colder March temps wise.

[heehaw453]

I still like this look for snowfall next Wednesday night (3/2).  The trough has been dropping enough for s/w action to affect the area.  PNA/NAM combo works for these parts for snow and wish I saw more of it this winter. With a PNA pump like that s/w could blow up in time to drop snow.

[heehaw453]

After next Thursday's possible light/moderate snow the PNA goes hostile and I wouldn't expect anything for snow from 3/5-3/10 as the cold air will be prohibited from eastward progression, ala December. It's after 3/10 that possibly the PNA trough swings more eastward and we have the final push from 3/11-3/21 for the interior. I-95 is possible too. That's it IMO and that is the final window for which interior/I95 has a shot. Of course barring a freak post spring event, but I'm not factoring that in.

[dkodgis]

Bad news for the spring early birds; good news for snow lovers. CP is launching a therapy group to talk those of us who feel hurt, betrayed, and bewildered down off the first-floor window ledge regarding this ever so meager winter’s snowfall.

[heehaw453]

Bad news for the spring early birds; good news for snow lovers. CP is launching a therapy group to talk those of us who feel hurt, betrayed, and bewildered down off the first-floor window ledge regarding this ever so meager winter’s snowfall.

[heehaw453]

We need that confluence/trough to lift up a bit as I said before if Thursday is going to work out for us.  They'll be snow, but it just maybe south of Mason Dixon Line. I still like the 500mb look but just need TPV to back off a bit.

But also notice what IMO kills the next 5-7 days after including the March 10 threat as the west coast trough starts its dirty work again.  The air mass will become marginal in east coast and won't support snow well until you get to CNE.  Play it again it Sam...

[SENJsnowman]

As per the TWC app, the dead of winter basically lifts out of here come this Saturday. Nighttime lows stay well above freezing at the coast and daytime highs consistently range from the high 40’s to the high 50’s. Not exactly spring like temps, but a noticeable warm up anyways. Interested to see if this holds…

[heehaw453]

As per the TWC app, the dead of winter basically lifts out of here come this Saturday. Nighttime lows stay well above freezing at the coast and daytime highs consistently range from the high 40’s to the high 50’s. Not exactly spring like temps, but a noticeable warm up anyways. Interested to see if this holds…

100%.
This is consistent with the PNA going hostile and blocking the cold air from eastward progression.  Notice what you see in this picture.  The diagonal hookup with the TPV to the PNA is a kiss of death for cold air progression as the SE ridge can flex it's muscle for long periods.  In this case the -EPO doesn't help us in time.  The trough will probably swing through to clear the SE ridge and cold air can advance with a better PNA during mid-March.  It's not impossible for latter part of March snowstorm for interior, but it's fighting climo and the pattern isn't good enough to produce anything sig after 3/15 IMO expect for CNE/NNE.  Again not impossible just very unlikely...

I'm going to create a meteorological winter retro/grade thread and probably getting ready to close up shop.  

[Wheezer]

Another record day in the life of the PV. One or two more in the coming days before a brief weakening in about a week, with a recovery after that projected .

The strat. vortex is currently stronger than all other years in the ERA interim record!!!
The zonal mean zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N is today (GFS analysis): 54.7 m/s
Weakest zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N in ERA interim record for todays date is: -10.6 m/s 1979
Strongest zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N in ERA interim record for todays date is: 47.3 m/s 1997

[amugs]

Another record day in the life of the PV.  One or two more in the coming days before a brief weakening in about a week, with a  recovery after that  projected .

The strat. vortex is currently stronger than all other years in the ERA interim record!!!
The zonal mean zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N is today (GFS analysis): 54.7 m/s
Weakest zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N in ERA interim record for todays date is: -10.6 m/s 1979
Strongest zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N in ERA interim record for todays date is: 47.3 m/s 1997

Then project tonight is a split starting next week and two lobes protected.

[Wheezer]

Today's PV


The strat. vortex is currently stronger than all other years in the ERA interim record!!!
The zonal mean zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N is today (GFS analysis): 54.1 m/s
Weakest zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N in ERA interim record for todays date is: -11.4 m/s 1999
Strongest zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N in ERA interim record for todays date is: 49.9 m/s 2020

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Today's PV


The strat. vortex is currently stronger than all other years in the ERA interim record!!!
The zonal mean zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N is today (GFS analysis): 54.1 m/s
Weakest zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N in ERA interim record for todays date is: -11.4 m/s 1999
Strongest zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N in ERA interim record for todays date is: 49.9 m/s 2020

I wish I had the slightest idea what this means and in what time frame but I don't.

Could you please explain?

[Wheezer]

It's just a reflection of the ongoing +AO, and although it will weaken in the coming days, it has to right?, models show it being brief and recovering to at least a normal state and thus more +AO in our future, imo

[sroc4]

Today's PV


The strat. vortex is currently stronger than all other years in the ERA interim record!!!
The zonal mean zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N is today (GFS analysis): 54.1 m/s
Weakest zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N in ERA interim record for todays date is: -11.4 m/s 1999
Strongest zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N in ERA interim record for todays date is: 49.9 m/s 2020

I wish I had the slightest idea what this means and in what time frame but I don't.

Could you please explain?

Meh.  The understanding and ability to measure the strat winds etc with any kind of accuracy is in its absolute infancy making a statement like this, with 3 !!! points no less, kind of meaning less IMO.  It just feels wrong to make the statement without adding at the end....

"...but in the grand scheme of things with have no idea what the significance of this is because the record of the strat is like one page worth but the rest of the book is filled with hundreds of millions of blank pages.  Even having a couple of hundreds of those pages filled in may give us a dimple of understanding its past".    

Wheezer Im under the assumption that you did not specifically make the statement. If you did I do not mean any disrespect in my comments, just pointing a few things out.

[Wheezer]

Today's PV


The strat. vortex is currently stronger than all other years in the ERA interim record!!!
The zonal mean zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N is today (GFS analysis): 54.1 m/s
Weakest zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N in ERA interim record for todays date is: -11.4 m/s 1999
Strongest zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N in ERA interim record for todays date is: 49.9 m/s 2020

I wish I had the slightest idea what this means and in what time frame but I don't.

Could you please explain?

Meh.  The understanding and ability to measure the strat winds etc with any kind of accuracy is in its absolute infancy making a statement like this, with 3 !!! points no less, kind of meaning less IMO.  It just feels wrong to make the statement without adding at the end....

"...but in the grand scheme of things with have no idea what the significance of this is because the record of the strat is like one page worth but the rest of the book is filled with hundreds of millions of blank pages.  Even having a couple of hundreds of those pages filled in may give us a dimple of understanding its past".    

Wheezer Im under the assumption that you did not specifically make the statement.  If you did I do not mean any disrespect in my comments, just pointing a few things out.    

Of course, as far as what it means , to me anyway, see my above post

[sroc4]

It's just a reflection of the ongoing +AO, and although it will weaken in the coming days, it has to right?, models show it being brief and recovering to at least a normal state and thus more +AO in our future,  imo

Sorry about that Wheezer. Not sure how I missed this. That is appears now in the modeling I cant argue with your thoughts.

[sroc4]

Yeah with Canada having ample cold air the -EPO would bleed down cold as the SE ridge gets pushed on by TPV in Greenland.  I think that could happen in March but not February because I've seen this look get pushed back several times.  And my concern with March is when it does actually happen it maybe too late for a lot of folks  But let's see if this starts building more consistency and alignment as we get within say 7 days.  Because if it does manifest itself by end February, I-95 would be in the game for its effects.

Ray and Haw great discussions.  I still think we have to watch and worry about the PNA domain.  The "look" at the H5 anomaly maps towards the end of the month does hint at that -EPO but the negative PNA look is also there.  Relative to the previously similar pattern in Dec I certainly recognize climatologically the air mass in Canada headed into March is much colder/denser, and hopefully the extremely anomalous neg PNA (-3 to -4 sigma in Dec) may not be quite as strong; however, that neg PNA may still provides "the trap door" for the coldest anomalies to escape and lead to a storm track less than ideal whenever any amped up energy ejects out of the SW CONUS trough by way of pumping the SE ridge out ahead; esp if interacts/phases with N energy too soon.   I will remain skeptical this far out that we wont see a slightly less pronounced version of the Dec pattern develop if we go back to that -EPO/_PNA couplet without and real help from the NAO or AO domains.  

Of course this may just be me being gun shy.  Ill give it some time before I decide how I overall feel about it.  Centers of the higher and lower height anomalies and of course how the orientations of the ridge/trough axis' evolves will go a long way to making up my mind.

The -PNA look IS there, and WILL BE real. However, this is very different from December with respect to the global and hemispheric forcing. In December, the larger backdrop SUPPORTED the anomalous western trough/eastern ridge regime. This time, however, it doesn’t. Globally and hemispherically, the forcing will be acting to establish the anomalous trough in the eastern CONUS. So what should happen, and I covered this a few days ago, is that the western trough should shear out (leading to the gradient pattern at first), and then eventually, the remnants will fold under the western ridge in an anti-cyclonic wave break event. When that happens, the remains of the Southeast Ridge will retrograde west to fill that void over the Southwest, and a unified western ridge/eastern trough will result. When this occurs, it SHOULD present a storm opportunity, probably between March 6th-10th, if I had to guess. The period we are seeing now on the modeling is the transition period, but we are only seeing the first half - the -PNA pattern will only be transient in my opinion.

In doing a little examining of the March pattern I felt this discussion by Ray back MID FEB should be bumped.

[sroc4]

Yeah with Canada having ample cold air the -EPO would bleed down cold as the SE ridge gets pushed on by TPV in Greenland.  I think that could happen in March but not February because I've seen this look get pushed back several times.  And my concern with March is when it does actually happen it maybe too late for a lot of folks  But let's see if this starts building more consistency and alignment as we get within say 7 days.  Because if it does manifest itself by end February, I-95 would be in the game for its effects.

Ray and Haw great discussions.  I still think we have to watch and worry about the PNA domain.  The "look" at the H5 anomaly maps towards the end of the month does hint at that -EPO but the negative PNA look is also there.  Relative to the previously similar pattern in Dec I certainly recognize climatologically the air mass in Canada headed into March is much colder/denser, and hopefully the extremely anomalous neg PNA (-3 to -4 sigma in Dec) may not be quite as strong; however, that neg PNA may still provides "the trap door" for the coldest anomalies to escape and lead to a storm track less than ideal whenever any amped up energy ejects out of the SW CONUS trough by way of pumping the SE ridge out ahead; esp if interacts/phases with N energy too soon.   I will remain skeptical this far out that we wont see a slightly less pronounced version of the Dec pattern develop if we go back to that -EPO/_PNA couplet without and real help from the NAO or AO domains.  

Of course this may just be me being gun shy.  Ill give it some time before I decide how I overall feel about it.  Centers of the higher and lower height anomalies and of course how the orientations of the ridge/trough axis' evolves will go a long way to making up my mind.

The -PNA look IS there, and WILL BE real. However, this is very different from December with respect to the global and hemispheric forcing. In December, the larger backdrop SUPPORTED the anomalous western trough/eastern ridge regime. This time, however, it doesn’t. Globally and hemispherically, the forcing will be acting to establish the anomalous trough in the eastern CONUS. So what should happen, and I covered this a few days ago, is that the western trough should shear out (leading to the gradient pattern at first), and then eventually, the remnants will fold under the western ridge in an anti-cyclonic wave break event. When that happens, the remains of the Southeast Ridge will retrograde west to fill that void over the Southwest, and a unified western ridge/eastern trough will result. When this occurs, it SHOULD present a storm opportunity, probably between March 6th-10th, if I had to guess. The period we are seeing now on the modeling is the transition period, but we are only seeing the first half - the -PNA pattern will only be transient in my opinion.

Here’s the EPS’ first indication of this:



Note the return of the trough to the southeast of Hawaii. This is present on all guidance at about this time, though with somewhat different location. This indicates that the -PNA is already having energy get drawn westward beneath the ridge, with some also being allowed to escape downstream. You get a trough east or southeast of Hawaii, and that only adds to the forcing acting to kick the trough out of the Southwest.

So should this one.

That is all.

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