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Long Range Thread 24.0

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Post by amugs Wed Mar 02, 2022 9:30 am

ST Paddys Day Green ?? More ways than one possibly!!
Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 19 Ecmwf_ensemble_avg_nhemi_z500_anom_7475200(1)

Well there is green in the temps below normal for sure .....if it verifies - watch this happen and we are 34* and wet pasty snow!!!!

Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 19 Ecmwf_ensemble_avg_nhemi_t850_anom_1day_7475200

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Post by sroc4 Wed Mar 02, 2022 9:40 am

amugs wrote:ST Paddys Day Green ?? More ways than one possibly!!
Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 19 Ecmwf_ensemble_avg_nhemi_z500_anom_7475200(1)

Well there is green in the temps below normal for sure .....if it verifies - watch this happen and we are 34* and wet pasty snow!!!!

Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 19 Ecmwf_ensemble_avg_nhemi_t850_anom_1day_7475200

OBV its way out there, but keeping in mind this is the avg of many individual runs, IF some of the negative along the WC of Canada end up further west and east then the PNA ridge would have a chance to go up. A PNA ridge axis in this vicinity would sharpen the eastern trough and lead to a storm chance.

Again fun to think about but way to far off to take serious at this time. That said the stuff I posted above lends credence to this sort of thing developing mid to late March. Mayb I recall this image in 10days Wink

Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 19 What_i10

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Post by sroc4 Wed Mar 02, 2022 10:31 am

Id also like to point out the current MJO forecast. The MJO wave which was prev forecast, not more than 3-5 days ago, to go into the wearmer phases of 4,5, and possibly 6. It has collapsed into the NUL phase. So to piggy back on Rays' thoughts form last month the likely hood of a re-emergence into the colder phases seems likely now and may coordinate nicvely with the Strat PV elongation or possible split forecast for mid month




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Post by amugs Wed Mar 02, 2022 12:50 pm

This is mid month that can bring in some goods - too bad it was not now so we do not have to fight sun angle and the longer sunlight days.
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Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 19 FM2moHBWYA0dx7O?format=jpg&name=medium


Last edited by amugs on Thu Mar 03, 2022 2:46 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Post by amugs Wed Mar 02, 2022 7:42 pm

Scott you wanted that WC trough to scattadle right? Wooop there it is!!

Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 19 C6C45816-2490-47C0-A6D1-08E196985C5B.jpeg.fe74abfa4425fd7fb50df71e6f8886b7

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Post by amugs Thu Mar 03, 2022 9:20 am

Only 8 days away!! After we feel spring this weekend. Winter wants to return. Beware of teh Ides of March!

Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 19 FM7DS89WYAANXUb?format=jpg&name=medium

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Post by sroc4 Thu Mar 03, 2022 10:02 am

There is def a storm signal mid month.

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Post by sroc4 Thu Mar 03, 2022 12:46 pm

sroc4 wrote:There is def a storm signal mid month.  


To be more specific 12th-18th. At least one opportunity IMO

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Post by phil155 Thu Mar 03, 2022 2:35 pm

I hope march is at least interesting and that we have something to track

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Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 19 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 24.0

Post by amugs Thu Mar 03, 2022 2:47 pm

From JB Wx Bell

YIKES

Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 19 FM8s-DpXwAEqLUc?format=png&name=medium

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Post by amugs Thu Mar 03, 2022 9:18 pm


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Post by Radz Fri Mar 04, 2022 6:33 am

We can hope for something big to go along with the cold. 14* this morning- are we waiting to start a March obs thread until we see a KU modeled for mid-month? 🤣
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Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 19 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 24.0

Post by amugs Fri Mar 04, 2022 11:49 am

MJO if this is correct with the wave going into phase 2 and then 3 is a cold look for March - it is not going to be Morch (March Torch) but for a a day or two. That torch has been totally muted yet again.

Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 19 Diagram_40days_forecast_GEFSBC_member(187)

Temps outlook in these phases

Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 19 Combined_image


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Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 19 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 24.0

Post by amugs Fri Mar 04, 2022 11:54 am

Can these tele's actually verify - if so BEWARE OF THE IDES OF MARCH!!

AO Negative (N)

Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 19 1646373600-Y2o0yM4zybQgrb2

NAO N
Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 19 1646373600-RdmphT1Iq4Ugrb2

EPO N
Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 19 1646373600-MshbqgsD6xQgrb2

PNA N to Positive
Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 19 1646373600-obQm0GhaoPAgrb2

WPO N the whole time
Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 19 1646373600-OepAsrH90Ekgrb2

Remember the WPO and EPO couplet when negative will drive the cross polar flow into the US and East


Last edited by amugs on Fri Mar 04, 2022 3:00 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 19 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 24.0

Post by amugs Fri Mar 04, 2022 11:55 am

Could be??
Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 19 1646956800-FNTqgVhZgIM

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Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 19 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 24.0

Post by sroc4 Fri Mar 04, 2022 12:53 pm

amugs wrote:Can these tele's actually verify - if so BEQWARE OF TEH IDES OF MARCH!!

AO Negative (N)

Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 19 1646373600-Y2o0yM4zybQgrb2

NAO N
Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 19 1646373600-RdmphT1Iq4Ugrb2

EPO N
Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 19 1646373600-MshbqgsD6xQgrb2

PNA N to Positive
Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 19 1646373600-obQm0GhaoPAgrb2

WPO N the whole time
Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 19 1646373600-OepAsrH90Ekgrb2

Remember the WPO and EPO couplet when negative will drive the cross polar flow into the US and East



Correlates nicely with the 12th-18th time frame for at least one storm opportunity.  





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Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 19 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 24.0

Post by sroc4 Fri Mar 04, 2022 12:54 pm

Mugs this is the time of year where many of the board members become conflicted.  You get the occasional days in the upper 40's or 50's and people see another cold spell and storm opportunity in the LR, and the little devil and angel pop up on the shoulder.  Each whispering in the ear like " just bring on spring already. Im done with Winter!"  vs "Well one more storm would be nice, but its the LR so it probably wont happen anyway"  

But we all know the truth....once we get to about day 5-7 slowly but surely the frequency at which we start checking in with the board begins to creep up.  "Is there still a threat for snow?  Hmm there is.  Ehh I dont care anyway, the warmth feels too good and its still most likely wont happen. Ill check back again in a day or two" 

Then we get to 5days out and you realize the cold air looks real, and the surface maps are showing 6"+ on random runs.  Even though Its gone on the next run you cant help but start checking in more frequently to see if subsequent runs, or if the other models start showing it too.  

Now we are inside 5days and the mind numbing desire for one last snowstorm takes back over and we all start checking in again beginning with when we wake up, followed by around noon ish give or take, and then again before bed....at a minimum.  

Once inside day 3 if its still there then it doesn't matter, March or January, we are all in.

About 3-4days before we start looking into the details....

We Track!!! What a Face

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Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 19 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 24.0

Post by rb924119 Fri Mar 04, 2022 2:26 pm

rb924119 wrote: Can’t understand all the talk of “winter cancel” from other places. I’m doubling down on my call for March - it looks quite January-esque to me with respect to H5. In my opinion, the MJO is going to pull the same stunt that it did in December, though on the opposite side of the world. I think this MJO pulse is going to be stuck in Phase 2/3 for a while (several weeks), which bodes well for our March prospects (in addition to other factors that I’m looking at. It’s what happens after that that’s going to be interesting from a meteorological perspective. My earlier call for a west-based NAO to develop in March *might be*  a little too fast, and it may hold off until late-month (this requires further thought over coming days), but I do like my initial call for an ugly and unsettled opening to April.The pattern will flip in April, and once it does, it’s going to get warm in a hurry. But when that flip should occur also requires further hypothesizing. That said, I also like the initial idea of an early and fast start to the severe weather season for the CONUS, mainly once we get to April, but this should also prevent any early-season tropical development, at least anywhere near the mainland U.S. I’ll add further insights into the thoughts that require more brainpower at some point haha

Bolded part for my man mugsy Wink

Original post was made February 10th, for reference.

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Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 19 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 24.0

Post by amugs Fri Mar 04, 2022 2:59 pm

^^^^^^^^^Rb thank you for the rewind - friggin PHENOMONAL CALL BROTHER!!

@SROC absolutely. AS I have said ....BEWARE OF THE IDES OF MARCH!!

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Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 19 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 24.0

Post by sroc4 Mon Mar 07, 2022 11:35 am

heehaw453 wrote:Saturday is about the SE ridge as it has been since beginning of February.  It's a nice PNA as shown on the GEFS so i do think a sig storm will develop.  But this is unconventional for sig snow for these parts.  I'd much rather have -NAO more westward beating down that ridge and forcing the storm underneath us than rely on the east based TPV which failed to do this in several times in February. It just doesn't seem to get the job done.  I think this weekend isn't much white unfortunately.  Also keep in mind GEFS is the best look for snow out of all major guidance ATM.

Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 19 Gefs42

I dont think we are close to seeing how this one plays out just yet.  Of all variations in the modeling now it appears there is nothing but warm solns for most of our coverage area as the interaction between the N and S energy is too far west.  And like as stated there is nothing on the Atlantic side to prevent it from cutting.  However; I could see a scenario where a left over piece of energy hanging back ends up being what gives us a shot with a well times 50/50 low vs the southern energy can get out ahead delaying the phase a bit.  Either N energy trends further back and delayed and or the southern energy trends faster; ahead of the N piece.   Only chance we have for this one, but again unlikely ATT 



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Post by heehaw453 Mon Mar 07, 2022 11:51 am

sroc4 wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:Saturday is about the SE ridge as it has been since beginning of February.  It's a nice PNA as shown on the GEFS so i do think a sig storm will develop.  But this is unconventional for sig snow for these parts.  I'd much rather have -NAO more westward beating down that ridge and forcing the storm underneath us than rely on the east based TPV which failed to do this in several times in February. It just doesn't seem to get the job done.  I think this weekend isn't much white unfortunately.  Also keep in mind GEFS is the best look for snow out of all major guidance ATM.

Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 19 Gefs42

I dont think we are close to seeing how this one plays out just yet.  Of all variations in the modeling now it appears there is nothing but warm solns for most of our coverage area as the interaction between the N and S energy is too far west.  And like as stated there is nothing on the Atlantic side to prevent it from cutting.  However; I could see a scenario where a left over piece of energy hanging back ends up being what gives us a shot with a well times 50/50 low vs the southern energy can get out ahead delaying the phase a bit.  Either N energy trends further back and delayed and or the southern energy trends faster; ahead of the N piece.   Only chance we have for this one, but again unlikely ATT 



Right.  the cutting is one aspect but it's just as much about the crap antecedent air mass due to that SE ridge. It's been an Achilles heal for us for 5/6 weeks and this is more of the same non favorable synoptic setups.  IMO best case is c-1" well north/west of I-95 and maybe I-81 corridor can get a little goodness, but anything south of Scranton area doubt it.  Just a little Atlantic help here would make a world of difference.  But I certainly won't tell Mother Nature what she can and cannot do, so let's see.
Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 19 1f609

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Post by heehaw453 Tue Mar 08, 2022 6:34 am

If we get mid-level energy as shown by 00Z Euro like this then it'll thump on Saturday.  You'd have rapidly deepening LP combined with much colder temps to the west.  The entire column would go below freezing rapidly.  There is some very HL blocking to potentially force the TPV a bit more south to potentially keep the LP to the east.  I think very low chances for something like this.  I would want to see much better HL blocking and further south.  To me the antecedent SE ridge is going to mitigate this potential big time as is the speed of the system.

Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 19 Ecmwf16
Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 19 Ecmwf510

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Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 19 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 24.0

Post by dkodgis Wed Mar 09, 2022 7:29 am

Looks like Fri/Sat falling into place a bit more?
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Post by heehaw453 Wed Mar 09, 2022 8:06 am

dkodgis wrote:Looks like Fri/Sat falling into place a bit more?

My opinion is no.  Without the SE ridge being beaten down we just have a very poor antecedent air mass.  That is a function of a poor Atlantic among other things.  We won't get the storm to slow down for aforementioned reasons to allow colder air to work in and outside of I81 Binghamton area I don't see this having a chance for any meaningful snow.  Maybe some c-1" further west in NEPA, EPA.

Our snow valve turned off end of January   Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 19 1f612 It happens...

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Post by SoulSingMG Wed Mar 09, 2022 9:17 am

While this weekend's storm is unlikely to bring notable snowfall to our area, the potential exists for strong to perhaps even damaging winds late Saturday as the low bombs out over the Gulf of Maine and temps free-fall behind it.
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