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Long Range Thread 24.0

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Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 17 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 24.0

Post by sroc4 Mon Feb 21, 2022 8:26 am

jmanley32 wrote:So im a bit confused the system that may be Sig ice is 26th and then something next day? I'm planning travel to CT thursday and coming back Sat. I can change my plans at latest Thursday evening. What do you guys think?

Lol. I think you should Wait until a Thursday to change your plans.

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Post by heehaw453 Mon Feb 21, 2022 8:44 am

There's nothing to jinx with Friday IMO as expectations are pretty low for most of the forum.  I've started a thread to help filter the conversation better.
>>>Feb 25 Event

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Feb 21, 2022 8:52 am

sroc4 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:So im a bit confused the system that may be Sig ice is 26th and then something next day? I'm planning travel to CT thursday and coming back Sat. I can change my plans at latest Thursday evening. What do you guys think?

Lol. I think you should Wait until a Thursday to change your plans.
Yeah guess that could have waited as a question till Thursday, just sometimes people miss it and I never hear. Good call though.
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Post by amugs Mon Feb 21, 2022 9:21 am

Um Houston this is a bigly cold indicy!indicator!!

EPO Sigma 4!! 2015 had similar signal! Look how that turned out!!

Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 17 Screen11

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Feb 21, 2022 10:40 am

I am also seeing that in the longer range, Mugs.

Decent storm signal toward the second week of March.

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Post by heehaw453 Mon Feb 21, 2022 11:43 am

The Sunday 2/27 potential is being picked up on by more than 1 model.  Low probability threat for now, but don't be surprised in the next few days if this gains momentum. Exponentially better setup with this 500mb look.  Can we catch a break on one of these?

Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 17 Gfs79

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Post by docstox12 Mon Feb 21, 2022 12:06 pm

The long range crew is seeing a lot of fun for the last weeks of winter! Great news.

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Post by heehaw453 Mon Feb 21, 2022 1:52 pm

I liked the 12Z Euro Op for D6/7 on the 2/27ish threat.  Minor adjustments like sharpening up the trough would bring that L up the coast for a nice snowstorm.  The take away is a nice PNA ridge with a lot of energy out ahead of the trough.  We've been playing this game a lot this winter, so why is this different?  One big thing is it's getting towards March and longer wavelengths are not needed as much as December/January/Early February for amplification of a s/w.  That means troughs tend to sharpen faster giving more room for up rather than out.  So my thought this will trend north...

Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 17 Euro60

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Post by sroc4 Mon Feb 21, 2022 1:56 pm

heehaw453 wrote:I liked the 12Z Euro Op for D6/7 on the 2/27ish threat.  Minor adjustments like sharpening up the trough would bring that L up the coast for a nice snowstorm.  The take away is a nice PNA ridge with a lot of energy out ahead of the trough.  We've been playing this game a lot this winter, so why is this different?  One big thing is it's getting towards March and longer wavelengths are not needed as much as December/January/Early February for amplification of a s/w.  That means troughs tend to sharpen faster giving more room for up rather than out.  So my thought this will trend north...

Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 17 Euro60

Or, as per the relatively common trends this season, that energy coming ashore the WC is faster, esp that northern piece in Canada; ruins the party by acting to move things along too quick by knocking down the ridge and everything happens too far off the EC coast. This one looks like a set up similar to past where eastern sections have the best shot or OTS

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
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Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 17 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 24.0

Post by heehaw453 Mon Feb 21, 2022 2:00 pm

sroc4 wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:I liked the 12Z Euro Op for D6/7 on the 2/27ish threat.  Minor adjustments like sharpening up the trough would bring that L up the coast for a nice snowstorm.  The take away is a nice PNA ridge with a lot of energy out ahead of the trough.  We've been playing this game a lot this winter, so why is this different?  One big thing is it's getting towards March and longer wavelengths are not needed as much as December/January/Early February for amplification of a s/w.  That means troughs tend to sharpen faster giving more room for up rather than out.  So my thought this will trend north...

Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 17 Euro60

Or as per the relatively common trends that energy coming ashore the WC is faster, esp that northern piece in Canada, ruins the party that acts to move things along too quick and everything happens off the coast.  

Oh definitely it's low threat for now. Just some of the base componentry is there and this time of year is more conducive to more tucked solutions. We'll need a few days to see if this has legs...

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Post by sroc4 Mon Feb 21, 2022 2:21 pm

heehaw453 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:I liked the 12Z Euro Op for D6/7 on the 2/27ish threat.  Minor adjustments like sharpening up the trough would bring that L up the coast for a nice snowstorm.  The take away is a nice PNA ridge with a lot of energy out ahead of the trough.  We've been playing this game a lot this winter, so why is this different?  One big thing is it's getting towards March and longer wavelengths are not needed as much as December/January/Early February for amplification of a s/w.  That means troughs tend to sharpen faster giving more room for up rather than out.  So my thought this will trend north...

Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 17 Euro60

Or as per the relatively common trends that energy coming ashore the WC is faster, esp that northern piece in Canada, ruins the party that acts to move things along too quick and everything happens off the coast.  

Oh definitely it's low threat for now.  Just some of the base componentry is there and this time of year is more conducive to more tucked solutions.  We'll need a few days to see if this has legs...

Ill tell you what though if that vort max was just a little further NE, like say in the Tenn valley, then that system goes boom.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
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Post by Snow88 Mon Feb 21, 2022 3:03 pm

Sundays storm is back on the models
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Post by heehaw453 Mon Feb 21, 2022 5:27 pm

That's a powder keg on the 18Z GFS for 2/27. At this range I'm quite content with that look.

Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 17 Gfsvor10

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Post by heehaw453 Tue Feb 22, 2022 7:08 am

2/27 threat on ice for now. Doesn't seem as impressive on 500mb for now. However, March is going to offer up another chance or two IMO as cold looks to get established. That doesn't mean a hit for this area as we all know.

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Post by billg315 Tue Feb 22, 2022 10:34 am

I'm still intrigued by this 2/27-2/28 possibility. The upper air pattern looks better to me than the model's surface depiction which makes me not want to write that off just yet. it also would be following a traditional model pattern over the years: Storm ten days out, no storm 7 days out, storm comes back 5 days out. lol. Models seem to love losing storms in that 7 day range.
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Post by heehaw453 Tue Feb 22, 2022 2:25 pm

I've been hoping for a compromise this entire winter between the PAC/NAM.  Maybe it happens in a week.

Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 17 Eps50

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Post by amugs Tue Feb 22, 2022 4:52 pm

N AO with its friend N WPO, N EPO and neutral NAO. Could be lots of fun and very cold if EPS has a clue in this range.

Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 17 Fmozen10

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Post by heehaw453 Tue Feb 22, 2022 5:30 pm

18Z GFS tries resurrecting the 2/27 threat. Just keeps popping up that energy and it wouldn't take much for that to blow up.  Back burner...

Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 17 Gfs81

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Post by heehaw453 Wed Feb 23, 2022 9:44 am

2/27 is probably dead.  No support that I'm aware for it on guidance at D4.  The winter has just been misaligned on the PAC/NAM states.  There is evidence of a better NAM state beginning of March.  We obviously don't want a hostile PNA as that will mitigate cold air and storms opportunities.  If the PNA can remove that trough and pump a bit, then we'd have something.

Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 17 Pna13

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Post by amugs Wed Feb 23, 2022 9:05 pm

Vortex split?? If so Rbs call goes through to the ionosphere!!

Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 17 Ecmwf_deterministic_nhemi_z50_anom_6481600.png.b82a794b4a589fa57cdeaf885cd82d1b

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Post by amugs Wed Feb 23, 2022 9:06 pm

Oh baby look at the positives over the top!!

Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 17 AF2E27ED-2E5A-45F2-8598-69150E1BC3F4.png.067c8db49d99e3112d5ce26928f556a9

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Post by Irish Wed Feb 23, 2022 9:52 pm

I'm happy to see folks pumped for March. However, all I'm seeing is warmer temps into March. What am I missing?
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Post by heehaw453 Thu Feb 24, 2022 10:41 am

Irish wrote:I'm happy to see folks pumped for March. However, all I'm seeing is warmer temps into March. What am I missing?

This picture for early March is the epitome of this winter.  Looks like a good NAM state developing with a very nice -EPO, but now the PNA won't cooperate. That mitigates our chances big time with storms and cold air transfer to east.  This winter hasn't not been able to bring it all together.  It's too bad because with the PAC we've had even slight cooperation from the NAM and I feel most of us would be well above our respective snowfall averages.  Like 150%-175% kind of anomaly across the board.  My optimism isn't good from what I see now, but maybe we get lucky in the next few weeks...

The winter of 2015 had a very good PAC with poor NAM support and produced nicely.  However, that had very fortuitous placement of the TPV to help with blocking.  That doesn't happen often around these parts.  You normally need the AO/NAO support.

Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 17 Ecmwf13

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Post by Irish Thu Feb 24, 2022 12:40 pm

heehaw453 wrote:
Irish wrote:I'm happy to see folks pumped for March. However, all I'm seeing is warmer temps into March. What am I missing?

This picture for early March is the epitome of this winter.  Looks like a good NAM state developing with a very nice -EPO, but now the PNA won't cooperate. That mitigates our chances big time with storms and cold air transfer to east.  This winter hasn't not been able to bring it all together.  It's too bad because with the PAC we've had even slight cooperation from the NAM and I feel most of us would be well above our respective snowfall averages.  Like 150%-175% kind of anomaly across the board.  My optimism isn't good from what I see now, but maybe we get lucky in the next few weeks...

The winter of 2015 had a very good PAC with poor NAM support and produced nicely.  However, that had very fortuitous placement of the TPV to help with blocking.  That doesn't happen often around these parts.  You normally need the AO/NAO support.

Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 17 Ecmwf13


Gotcha, whatever happens, happens. However, at this point, bring on spring!
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Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 17 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 24.0

Post by amugs Thu Feb 24, 2022 3:12 pm

AO looks to get Negative and Neutral from March 3rdish onward along with the NAO

Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 17 1645704000-Q1ho2pigY04grb2

Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 17 1645704000-aYhRrO71uqAgrb2

EPO is negative

Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 17 1645704000-4EJY9g2UGTEgrb2

WPO takes until March 4th to do so but these two can cause widespread cold and a split flow in March is likely with a jet coming out of Baja
Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 17 1645704000-lPIJqFzHvuggrb2



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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Feb 24, 2022 7:39 pm

Long range is zapping whatever enthusiasm I have left to give this winter. If or when the negative PNA emerges, along with a continue positive NAO, that will effectively end our chances of meaningful snowfall. Sure the nuisance snowfall here and there but the big storms will wait until next year. We’ll see if the ensemble outlook changes but for now…not good.

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Post by Irish Thu Feb 24, 2022 8:13 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Long range is zapping whatever enthusiasm I have left to give this winter. If or when the negative PNA emerges, along with a continue positive NAO, that will effectively end our chances of meaningful snowfall. Sure the nuisance snowfall here and there but the big storms will wait until next year. We’ll see if the ensemble outlook changes but for now…not good.

Thx for all you guys have done this winter, see you next winter!
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