Re: Long Range Thread 24.0

[sroc4]

GFS maybe seeing the phase 3 of the MJO which coincides to the map with the NAO blocking

Man, I never know what the hell these maps are trying to tell me.

Irish ask and yee shall receive. Click on the link below. Several years ago I did a write up on what the MJO is. Read through. I hope it answers at least some questions.

https://www.njstrongweatherforum.com/t511-what-is-the-mjo-really

[amugs]

GFS maybe seeing the phase 3 of the MJO which coincides to the map with the NAO blocking

Man, I never know what the hell these maps are trying to tell me.

It means a cold n stormy pattern for the east

[heehaw453]

GFS on its own on w.r.t. to most guidance for 2/6 threat window.  Good antecedent cold, but retreating H pressure.  I'd be skeptical until other guidance comes on board.

[heehaw453]

And the 12Z GFS still trying to push the idea of snow threat window for 2/6. It has a decent s/w to start with, but decaying as it comes up the coast with retreating H pressure. It doesn't feel to me like a sig snow threat yet and it needs more support before taken seriously IMO.

[amugs]

And the 12Z GFS still trying to push the idea of snow threat window for 2/6.  It has a decent s/w to start with, but decaying as it comes up the coast with retreating H pressure.  It doesn't feel to me like a sig snow threat yet and it needs more support before taken seriously IMO.  

GFS has sniffed out these storms in the 7 -8 day range all year and then backs off and then comes about 3/4 to 1/2 way - an interesting set up.

[rb924119]

Extended range is looking scrumptious. After this brief period of moderation that we are seeing now, we should lock right back in until the closing days of February (last week, MAYBE last ten days) when we go through another moderation period similar to what we will see over the next few days. Then we should rock again once we get to the opening of March

[amugs]

EPS says hello

[heehaw453]

The threat for 2/6. There will be a decent s/w that tries to come up the coast, but it'll get squashed by a nearby disturbance. As the heights dampen on EC so will the storm and drift OTS IMO.

We most likely go through first 10 ten days of February w/out too much w.r.t. snowfall. Hopefully February can produce after that to give folks along 95, EPA/NEPA/LHV a shot at normal snowfall. That really is my goal in EPA just try to get to normal seasonal snowfall which I'm about 1/2 way there.

[amugs]

Cont'd...Hard to even call this a mild spell after the cold spell later this week, more like a brief break between cold shots. Really going to test the whole "La Ninas are mild in February" idea this year. pic.twitter.com/6cPBdROSKl

— Jim Sullivan (@JimSullivan92) February 2, 2022

[dkodgis]

Hmmmm. The ice thing is looming larger for Thurs evening into Fri.

Close to an inch of ice up here?

[amugs]

MJO



6 GEFS - lets get going here!!! he elusive NAO Westward Block showing up - only 10 days away of course!


EPS

[amugs]

GFS says hold my beer - 10 days away of course

[Frank_Wx]

GFS says hold my beer - 10 days away of course

Valentines Day storm possible

Mother Natures way of expressing love

[heehaw453]

Whatever snow chances we get in February will be well after 2/10 IMO.  I do think it'll be cold enough for stretches as the lobe of the TPV is around Hudson Bay and the PNA/EPO will be favorable.  I'm in favor of a bear case for a big snow producing month in February.  I think BN is more likely than AN. Also keep in mind February is climatologically the largest snow producing month for I-95.

bear case
1/ gets going late
2/ wave spacing issues as n/s TPV will be close by
3/ Atlantic/arctic are not in very favorable conditions (my biggest concern)

[amugs]

This is what we want to see for our CHANCES. A stretched PV.

[Frank_Wx]

Periods of interest:

*Monday-Tuesday next week especially for SNJ and Mid-Atlantic
*February 11th-15th - possible coastal system

[heehaw453]

GFS says I may be wrong about no meaningful snowfall chances before 2/10. Please prove me wrong and actually be sniffing something out at D5 that doesn't hook wide right into the Atlantic. The EPS are also a bit more enthused about this time frame as well. We shall see.

[phil155]

Periods of interest:

*Monday-Tuesday next week especially for SNJ and Mid-Atlantic
*February 11th-15th - possible coastal system

I just need decent weather for my super bowl party so I respectfully ask that any potential storm in the 11th-15th time period not happen on the 13th but with my luck consider the 13 nearly a lock for a storm

[Frank_Wx]

Periods of interest:

*Monday-Tuesday next week especially for SNJ and Mid-Atlantic
*February 11th-15th - possible coastal system

I just need decent weather for my super bowl party so I respectfully ask that any potential storm in the 11th-15th time period not happen on the 13th but with my luck consider the 13 nearly a lock for a storm

A Super Bowl and/or V-Day storm is entirely possible

We'll see what happens over the next week with modeling.

[heehaw453]

EPS is a bit more enthused about 2/8 threat.  I'd keep this as minimal threat for now.  There is agreement on the energy on GEFS/EPS in the general vicinity at D5.  If this is legit, I'd expect general trends to continue the next few days, otherwise just another phantom.

GFS run/run continues to move in the right direction with this threat.  If the western ridge doesn't get squashed quickly then this will be a legit threat.  

[Koroptim]

I can’t remember a winter with more disappointments in terms of day 10 vs actual. I always think of March 1st as generally the end of good snow pack building, so starting to wind down. Let’s just have an early spring so we can actually do stuff outside again

[amugs]

I can’t remember a winter with more disappointments in terms of  day 10 vs actual.  I always think of March 1st as generally the end of good snow pack building, so starting to wind down.  Let’s just have an early spring so we can actually do stuff outside again

Day 5 and in has been a rug pulled out from under our feet a bunch of times this winter for many on this board. Unreal.

[Irish]

I can’t remember a winter with more disappointments in terms of  day 10 vs actual.  I always think of March 1st as generally the end of good snow pack building, so starting to wind down.  Let’s just have an early spring so we can actually do stuff outside again

Agreed!  Anything we get in March is just cherry on top stuff and usually doesn't hang around long anyhow. So, in my eyes we have 3-4 good weeks left and then I start thinking about the garden and being outside.  Every February day that goes by without snow is a lost day and getting a giant rain storm in the heart of winter, lasting 2 days is just a kick to the nuts.

[heehaw453]

I may be wrong about no snowfall until 2/10.  I like model agreement on this at D4+ and if this western ridge can just hold w/out getting squashed by n/s energy we could have a moderate storm which I will gladly take.  Of course we need to get in closer for confidence, but this look is decent at this range and there is a path for this s/w to come up and not out.  

Edit. Retreating H is not a recipe for anything large scale. So this is moderate at best IMO.

[amugs]

Neutral El Nino to very weak next fall winter??
Think what you want but always one eye on the horizon.

Here the pattern around the 10/11th and forward to 15th

[Frank_Wx]

Nice maps Al. I personally think the pattern for the first half of February isn’t bad, but we’ll enter a dry stretch after tonight’s storm passes.

[dsix85]

Frank or whoever can answer this…when does the sun angle start impacting accumulating snow?

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