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Long Range Thread 24.0

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Post by heehaw453 Tue Feb 01, 2022 6:48 am

GFS on its own on w.r.t. to most guidance for 2/6 threat window.  Good antecedent cold, but retreating H pressure.  I'd be skeptical until other guidance comes on board.

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Post by heehaw453 Tue Feb 01, 2022 11:40 am

And the 12Z GFS still trying to push the idea of snow threat window for 2/6. It has a decent s/w to start with, but decaying as it comes up the coast with retreating H pressure. It doesn't feel to me like a sig snow threat yet and it needs more support before taken seriously IMO.

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Post by amugs Tue Feb 01, 2022 11:57 am

heehaw453 wrote:And the 12Z GFS still trying to push the idea of snow threat window for 2/6.  It has a decent s/w to start with, but decaying as it comes up the coast with retreating H pressure.  It doesn't feel to me like a sig snow threat yet and it needs more support before taken seriously IMO.  

GFS has sniffed out these storms in the 7 -8 day range all year and then backs off and then comes about 3/4 to 1/2 way - an interesting set up.

Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 4 FKhnRhbXsAkJ2Df?format=jpg&name=medium

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Post by rb924119 Tue Feb 01, 2022 3:37 pm

Extended range is looking scrumptious. After this brief period of moderation that we are seeing now, we should lock right back in until the closing days of February (last week, MAYBE last ten days) when we go through another moderation period similar to what we will see over the next few days. Then we should rock again once we get to the opening of March Smile

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Post by amugs Tue Feb 01, 2022 3:50 pm

EPS says hello

Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 4 Fkh5xy10

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Post by heehaw453 Wed Feb 02, 2022 7:09 am

The threat for 2/6. There will be a decent s/w that tries to come up the coast, but it'll get squashed by a nearby disturbance. As the heights dampen on EC so will the storm and drift OTS IMO.

We most likely go through first 10 ten days of February w/out too much w.r.t. snowfall. Hopefully February can produce after that to give folks along 95, EPA/NEPA/LHV a shot at normal snowfall. That really is my goal in EPA just try to get to normal seasonal snowfall which I'm about 1/2 way there.

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Post by amugs Wed Feb 02, 2022 8:06 am


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Post by dkodgis Wed Feb 02, 2022 8:17 am

Hmmmm. The ice thing is looming larger for Thurs evening into Fri.

Close to an inch of ice up here?
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Post by amugs Wed Feb 02, 2022 9:41 am

MJO

Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 4 Diagram_40days_forecast_GEFS_member

6 GEFS - lets get going here!!! he elusive NAO Westward Block showing up - only 10 days away of course!

Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 4 Gfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-z500_anom-4667200.png.e160119e7f91c44012bc6f7cfc134f1d
EPS
Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 4 Ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom-4645600.png.8480cf55419962bbcf58ae958b215738

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Post by amugs Wed Feb 02, 2022 12:01 pm

GFS says hold my beer - 10 days away of course

Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 4 Gfs_z500a_namer_43

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Feb 02, 2022 12:37 pm

amugs wrote:GFS says hold my beer - 10 days away of course

Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 4 Gfs_z500a_namer_43

Valentines Day storm possible

Mother Natures way of expressing love

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Post by heehaw453 Thu Feb 03, 2022 7:10 am

Whatever snow chances we get in February will be well after 2/10 IMO.  I do think it'll be cold enough for stretches as the lobe of the TPV is around Hudson Bay and the PNA/EPO will be favorable.  I'm in favor of a bear case for a big snow producing month in February.  I think BN is more likely than AN. Also keep in mind February is climatologically the largest snow producing month for I-95.

bear case
1/ gets going late
2/ wave spacing issues as n/s TPV will be close by
3/ Atlantic/arctic are not in very favorable conditions (my biggest concern)

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Post by amugs Thu Feb 03, 2022 9:41 am

This is what we want to see for our CHANCES. A stretched PV.

Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 4 FKraZ61XoAM0F9J?format=jpg&name=4096x4096

Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 4 FKrabsZXsAYAcuk?format=jpg&name=4096x4096

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Feb 03, 2022 11:40 am

Periods of interest:

*Monday-Tuesday next week especially for SNJ and Mid-Atlantic
*February 11th-15th - possible coastal system

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Post by heehaw453 Thu Feb 03, 2022 11:41 am

GFS says I may be wrong about no meaningful snowfall chances before 2/10. Please prove me wrong and actually be sniffing something out at D5 that doesn't hook wide right into the Atlantic. The EPS are also a bit more enthused about this time frame as well. We shall see.

Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 4 Gfspng10



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Post by phil155 Thu Feb 03, 2022 12:15 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Periods of interest:

*Monday-Tuesday next week especially for SNJ and Mid-Atlantic
*February 11th-15th - possible coastal system


I just need decent weather for my super bowl party so I respectfully ask that any potential storm in the 11th-15th time period not happen on the 13th but with my luck consider the 13 nearly a lock for a storm Sad

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Feb 03, 2022 2:10 pm

phil155 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:Periods of interest:

*Monday-Tuesday next week especially for SNJ and Mid-Atlantic
*February 11th-15th - possible coastal system


I just need decent weather for my super bowl party so I respectfully ask that any potential storm in the 11th-15th time period not happen on the 13th but with my luck consider the 13 nearly a lock for a storm Sad

A Super Bowl and/or V-Day storm is entirely possible

We'll see what happens over the next week with modeling.

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Post by heehaw453 Thu Feb 03, 2022 2:49 pm

EPS is a bit more enthused about 2/8 threat.  I'd keep this as minimal threat for now.  There is agreement on the energy on GEFS/EPS in the general vicinity at D5.  If this is legit, I'd expect general trends to continue the next few days, otherwise just another phantom.

GFS run/run continues to move in the right direction with this threat.  If the western ridge doesn't get squashed quickly then this will be a legit threat.  

Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 4 Gfsthr10


Last edited by heehaw453 on Thu Feb 03, 2022 5:50 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Post by Koroptim Thu Feb 03, 2022 5:18 pm

I can’t remember a winter with more disappointments in terms of day 10 vs actual. I always think of March 1st as generally the end of good snow pack building, so starting to wind down. Let’s just have an early spring so we can actually do stuff outside again

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Post by amugs Thu Feb 03, 2022 5:45 pm

Koroptim wrote:I can’t remember a winter with more disappointments in terms of  day 10 vs actual.  I always think of March 1st as generally the end of good snow pack building, so starting to wind down.  Let’s just have an early spring so we can actually do stuff outside again
Day 5 and in has been a rug pulled out from under our feet a bunch of times this winter for many on this board. Unreal.

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Post by Irish Thu Feb 03, 2022 7:45 pm

Koroptim wrote:I can’t remember a winter with more disappointments in terms of  day 10 vs actual.  I always think of March 1st as generally the end of good snow pack building, so starting to wind down.  Let’s just have an early spring so we can actually do stuff outside again

Agreed!  Anything we get in March is just cherry on top stuff and usually doesn't hang around long anyhow. So, in my eyes we have 3-4 good weeks left and then I start thinking about the garden and being outside.  Every February day that goes by without snow is a lost day and getting a giant rain storm in the heart of winter, lasting 2 days is just a kick to the nuts.

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Post by heehaw453 Thu Feb 03, 2022 8:55 pm

I may be wrong about no snowfall until 2/10.  I like model agreement on this at D4+ and if this western ridge can just hold w/out getting squashed by n/s energy we could have a moderate storm which I will gladly take.  Of course we need to get in closer for confidence, but this look is decent at this range and there is a path for this s/w to come up and not out.  

Edit. Retreating H is not a recipe for anything large scale. So this is moderate at best IMO.

Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 4 Eps40

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Post by amugs Thu Feb 03, 2022 9:24 pm

Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 4 Fktx5_10
Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 4 Fktx5_11

Neutral El Nino to very weak next fall winter??
Think what you want but always one eye on the horizon.

Here the pattern around the 10/11th and forward to 15th
Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 4 Fkt3ox10
Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 4 Fktq3v10
Long Range Thread 24.0 - Page 4 Fktq3v11




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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Feb 03, 2022 9:43 pm

Nice maps Al. I personally think the pattern for the first half of February isn’t bad, but we’ll enter a dry stretch after tonight’s storm passes.

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Post by dsix85 Fri Feb 04, 2022 11:57 am

Frank or whoever can answer this…when does the sun angle start impacting accumulating snow?

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