Monitoring February 4th

TheAresian wrote:Thanks, hee. You all are the best for helping out those that don't know much and not making us feel bad about it.

Your area to Binghamton to Catskills is going to do quite well with this storm I think. Still think our immediate area can get decent accumulations NW I95 as the cold press will be strong. But definitely not confident in that.

I'm about 70 miles west of Binghamton, way out on the western front.

NAM showing the trend moving colder in the LR here

EURO makes a move to GFS and its colder solutions.
One thing we must ALWAYS be aware of...a big snow pack up North, very cold dense arctic air overhead and climo = models under doing this cold or CAD = cold air daming. Temps crashing at 7am with a TON of moisture streaming up. Made about a 75  mile jump SE.
0Z will be very interesting and I'll see it when I get up tomorrow morning

If this were to fall all as snow down to coast would it be a area wide godzilla? I seen snow maps that show 12+ but i know right now that includes other types precip, what is the upper end of snowfall potential on this if it were to remain cold enough, or is that not possible?

amugs wrote:EURO makes a move to GFS and its colder solutions.
One thing we must ALWAYS be aware of...a big snow pack up North, very cold dense arctic air overhead and climo = models under doing this cold or CAD = cold air daming. Temps crashing at 7am with a TON of moisture streaming up. Made about a 75  mile jump SE.
0Z will be very interesting and I'll see it when I get up tomorrow morning

Kind of skeptical the coast and CNJ even gets to 50. I think low to mid 40s will do it. Very cold snowpack on the ground

aiannone wrote:

amugs wrote:EURO makes a move to GFS and its colder solutions.
One thing we must ALWAYS be aware of...a big snow pack up North, very cold dense arctic air overhead and climo = models under doing this cold or CAD = cold air daming. Temps crashing at 7am with a TON of moisture streaming up. Made about a 75  mile jump SE.
0Z will be very interesting and I'll see it when I get up tomorrow morning

Kind of skeptical the coast and CNJ even gets to 50. I think low to mid 40s will do it. Very cold snowpack on the ground

Absolutely Alex it is overdoing the warmth. Heat Miser commandeered this model!!!

Well 0z NAM is quite north. Mid 40s into southern Vermont.

GFS is trending even colder for Friday’s storm

The High Pressure is actually in a similar position to the 18z run, but the cold press is a lot stronger.

Based off of soundings the GFS for NYC showed:

*.50” rain
*.50” freezing rain
*2” sleet
*3” snow

Foggetaboutit

GFS aggressive on the frozen still at 06Z.  I'm a bit skeptical because at this range it's quite misaligned with other guidance.

EURO made a step again to GFS. That 1048 HP over OH CAnada is gonna drill the NE with cold dense arctic air. Just look at the source region and it tells you all you need to know.
1994, 1978, 1994 repeater.
Everyone wants winter weather, storms until it gets bad and then they want out.

amugs wrote:EURO made a step again to GFS. That 1048 HP over OH CAnada is gonna drill the NE with cold dense arctic air. Just look at the source region and it tells you all you need to know.
1994, 1978, 1994 repeater.
Everyone wants winter weather, storms until it gets bad and then they want out.

Euro definitely making more of a move with stronger H and weaker L, but I think GFS cold, snow and ice numbers are too aggressive. 1/4" ice possibly down to I95 and off immediate coast threat on the table with some sleet on top of that. Snow 2-4" NW of I-95 and maybe C-1" on the 95.

amugs wrote:EURO made a step again to GFS. That 1048 HP over OH CAnada is gonna drill the NE with cold dense arctic air. Just look at the source region and it tells you all you need to know.
1994, 1978, 1994 repeater.
Everyone wants winter weather, storms until it gets bad and then they want out.

I'm in for whatever mother nature brings. We can't control if there's go b a ice storm but let's hope it snows. Or sleet is better than ice. The out p it's of frz are a but rediculous but we will see.

heehaw453 wrote:GFS aggressive on the frozen still at 06Z.  I'm a bit skeptical because at this range it's quite misaligned with other guidance.

Yikes and in in the bullseye tgere for the ice.

Winter storm watch is out for here. As for what's coming, it's a battle with the GFS and Euro (who are both calling for mostly,if not all snow)on one side and the NAM and CMC (who have it as mostly sleet)on the other. Normally, I'd assume the former is a lock, but again I seem to be within 50 miles of mix zone so neither side can be ruled out. Whatever happens out west, I hope the ice isn't as bad as they're calling for out your way.

Good morning crew! I have a Poconos trip planned this Wed. to Fri. Returning home back to CNJ Friday morning. In your opinion, could travel be treacherous? I’m thinking of postponing the trip. Any advice is appreciated!

richb521 wrote:Good morning crew! I have a Poconos trip planned this Wed. to Fri. Returning home back to CNJ Friday morning. In your opinion, could travel be treacherous? I’m thinking of postponing the trip. Any advice is appreciated!

Friday morning will be a tough go in those mountains my man. Where about Rt80, 78? Those roads are treacherous during any winter storm in that region Rich. Bette to be safe from what is being shown by models. Give it another day if you can to see how things take shape.

Do you think this will be more like a sleet storm for me or a ice storm

12Z NAM getting more aligned to GFS. Low pressure more suppressed and H pushing down more.  I would expect some backend frozen out of this type of setup.

Edit. It's definitely not where GFS is at just yet, but the idea of stronger H pushing down and more suppressed L pressure is there.

No thanks on the ice. If it isn't going to be snow, I'll take 50* and rain.

amugs wrote:

richb521 wrote:Good morning crew! I have a Poconos trip planned this Wed. to Fri. Returning home back to CNJ Friday morning. In your opinion, could travel be treacherous? I’m thinking of postponing the trip. Any advice is appreciated!

Friday morning will be a tough go in those mountains my man. Where about Rt80, 78? Those roads are treacherous during any winter storm in that region Rich. Bette to be safe from what is being shown by models. Give it another day if you can to see how things take shape.

Thank you! Will probably postpone today to another time next month then. Normally the route I take is I-80 to I-78 via I-287 to home. Have to adjust work schedules today. Appreciate the advice!

billg315 wrote:No thanks on the ice. If it isn't going to be snow, I'll take 50* and rain.

I think some ice is coming with this setup. I'm hoping 1/4" max which is much different than 1/2" w.r.t. impacts.

We've seen this movie before...

SoulSingMG wrote:We've seen this movie before...

Wow, that's a huge shift south in one run!

Is this type of setup ripe for a significant amount of add'l southern suppression? I thought I've seen several times where a strong cold front that keeps pressing down from Canada from day 3-5 ends up marching south at a breakneck rate starting at about 3 days out and especially at 2 days out.