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Monitoring February 4th

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Monitoring February 4th - Page 2 Empty Re: Monitoring February 4th

Post by amugs Mon Jan 31, 2022 6:26 pm

NAM showing the trend moving colder in the LR here


Monitoring February 4th - Page 2 Nam_1810

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Post by amugs Mon Jan 31, 2022 8:43 pm

EURO makes a move to GFS and its colder solutions.
One thing we must ALWAYS be aware of...a big snow pack up North, very cold dense arctic air overhead and climo = models under doing this cold or CAD = cold air daming. Temps crashing at 7am with a TON of moisture streaming up. Made about a 75  mile jump SE.
0Z will be very interesting and I'll see it when I get up tomorrow morning
Monitoring February 4th - Page 2 BE3A3F77-7D65-41BE-BB72-5EA054C32D89.png.d9412e911bd6f0137b77e8c2a1a5fed2

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Jan 31, 2022 9:00 pm

If this were to fall all as snow down to coast would it be a area wide godzilla? I seen snow maps that show 12+ but i know right now that includes other types precip, what is the upper end of snowfall potential on this if it were to remain cold enough, or is that not possible?
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Post by aiannone Mon Jan 31, 2022 9:15 pm

amugs wrote:EURO makes a move to GFS and its colder solutions.
One thing we must ALWAYS be aware of...a big snow pack up North, very cold dense arctic air overhead and climo = models under doing this cold or CAD = cold air daming. Temps crashing at 7am with a TON of moisture streaming up. Made about a 75  mile jump SE.
0Z will be very interesting and I'll see it when I get up tomorrow morning
Monitoring February 4th - Page 2 BE3A3F77-7D65-41BE-BB72-5EA054C32D89.png.d9412e911bd6f0137b77e8c2a1a5fed2

Kind of skeptical the coast and CNJ even gets to 50. I think low to mid 40s will do it. Very cold snowpack on the ground
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Post by amugs Mon Jan 31, 2022 9:16 pm

aiannone wrote:
amugs wrote:EURO makes a move to GFS and its colder solutions.
One thing we must ALWAYS be aware of...a big snow pack up North, very cold dense arctic air overhead and climo = models under doing this cold or CAD = cold air daming. Temps crashing at 7am with a TON of moisture streaming up. Made about a 75  mile jump SE.
0Z will be very interesting and I'll see it when I get up tomorrow morning
Monitoring February 4th - Page 2 BE3A3F77-7D65-41BE-BB72-5EA054C32D89.png.d9412e911bd6f0137b77e8c2a1a5fed2

Kind of skeptical the coast and CNJ even gets to 50. I think low to mid 40s will do it. Very cold snowpack on the ground

Absolutely Alex it is overdoing the warmth. Heat Miser commandeered this model!!!

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Post by aiannone Mon Jan 31, 2022 9:53 pm

Well 0z NAM is quite north. Mid 40s into southern Vermont.
Monitoring February 4th - Page 2 85f8e410
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jan 31, 2022 11:00 pm

GFS is trending even colder for Friday’s storm

The High Pressure is actually in a similar position to the 18z run, but the cold press is a lot stronger.

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jan 31, 2022 11:08 pm

Monitoring February 4th - Page 2 1643954400-6HkBwuPkSZQ

Monitoring February 4th - Page 2 1643997600-WtzHIcviKow

Monitoring February 4th - Page 2 Zr_acc.us_ne

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jan 31, 2022 11:10 pm

Based off of soundings the GFS for NYC showed:

*.50” rain
*.50” freezing rain
*2” sleet
*3” snow

Foggetaboutit

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Post by heehaw453 Tue Feb 01, 2022 6:46 am

GFS aggressive on the frozen still at 06Z.  I'm a bit skeptical because at this range it's quite misaligned with other guidance.

Monitoring February 4th - Page 2 Snow11
Monitoring February 4th - Page 2 Sleet10
Monitoring February 4th - Page 2 Gfsfz10

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Post by amugs Tue Feb 01, 2022 6:49 am

EURO made a step again to GFS. That 1048 HP over OH CAnada is gonna drill the NE with cold dense arctic air. Just look at the source region and it tells you all you need to know.
1994, 1978, 1994 repeater.
Everyone wants winter weather, storms until it gets bad and then they want out.

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Post by heehaw453 Tue Feb 01, 2022 6:59 am

amugs wrote:EURO made a step again to GFS. That 1048 HP over OH CAnada is gonna drill the NE with cold dense arctic air. Just look at the source region and it tells you all you need to know.
1994, 1978, 1994 repeater.
Everyone wants winter weather, storms until it gets bad and then they want out.

Euro definitely making more of a move with stronger H and weaker L, but I think GFS cold, snow and ice numbers are too aggressive. 1/4" ice possibly down to I95 and off immediate coast threat on the table with some sleet on top of that. Snow 2-4" NW of I-95 and maybe C-1" on the 95.

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Feb 01, 2022 7:05 am

amugs wrote:EURO made a step again to GFS. That 1048 HP over OH CAnada is gonna drill the NE with cold dense arctic air. Just look at the source region and it tells you all you need to know.
1994, 1978, 1994 repeater.
Everyone wants winter weather, storms until it gets bad and then they want out.
I'm in for whatever mother nature brings. We can't control if there's go b a ice storm but let's hope it snows. Or sleet is better than ice. The out p it's of frz are a but rediculous but we will see.
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Feb 01, 2022 7:07 am

heehaw453 wrote:GFS aggressive on the frozen still at 06Z.  I'm a bit skeptical because at this range it's quite misaligned with other guidance.

Monitoring February 4th - Page 2 Snow11
Monitoring February 4th - Page 2 Sleet10
Monitoring February 4th - Page 2 Gfsfz10
Yikes and in in the bullseye tgere for the ice.
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Post by docstox12 Tue Feb 01, 2022 7:16 am

-2 degrees,clear calm wind.
Seeing the two words I hate for later in the week on NWS "wintry mix".Hoping for mostly snow or mostly rain.Weds and Thurs 40 or above here they say.
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Post by TheAresian Tue Feb 01, 2022 7:36 am

Winter storm watch is out for here. As for what's coming, it's a battle with the GFS and Euro (who are both calling for mostly,if not all snow)on one side and the NAM and CMC (who have it as mostly sleet)on the other. Normally, I'd assume the former is a lock, but again I seem to be within 50 miles of mix zone so neither side can be ruled out. Whatever happens out west, I hope the ice isn't as bad as they're calling for out your way.

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Post by richb521 Tue Feb 01, 2022 7:38 am

Good morning crew! I have a Poconos trip planned this Wed. to Fri. Returning home back to CNJ Friday morning. In your opinion, could travel be treacherous? I’m thinking of postponing the trip. Any advice is appreciated!

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Post by amugs Tue Feb 01, 2022 8:02 am

richb521 wrote:Good morning crew! I have a Poconos trip planned this Wed. to Fri. Returning home back to CNJ Friday morning. In your opinion, could travel be treacherous? I’m thinking of postponing the trip. Any advice is appreciated!

Friday morning will be a tough go in those mountains my man. Where about Rt80, 78? Those roads are treacherous during any winter storm in that region Rich. Bette to be safe from what is being shown by models. Give it another day if you can to see how things take shape.

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Post by frank 638 Tue Feb 01, 2022 8:03 am

Do you think this will be more like a sleet storm for me or a ice storm

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Post by heehaw453 Tue Feb 01, 2022 9:25 am

12Z NAM getting more aligned to GFS. Low pressure more suppressed and H pushing down more.  I would expect some backend frozen out of this type of setup.

Edit. It's definitely not where GFS is at just yet, but the idea of stronger H pushing down and more suppressed L pressure is there.

Monitoring February 4th - Page 2 Nam33

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Post by billg315 Tue Feb 01, 2022 9:55 am

No thanks on the ice. If it isn't going to be snow, I'll take 50* and rain.
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Post by richb521 Tue Feb 01, 2022 10:06 am

amugs wrote:
richb521 wrote:Good morning crew! I have a Poconos trip planned this Wed. to Fri. Returning home back to CNJ Friday morning. In your opinion, could travel be treacherous? I’m thinking of postponing the trip. Any advice is appreciated!

Friday morning will be a tough go in those mountains my man. Where about Rt80, 78? Those roads are treacherous during any winter storm in that region Rich. Bette to be safe from what is being shown by models. Give it another day if you can to see how things take shape.

Thank you! Will probably postpone today to another time next month then. Normally the route I take is I-80 to I-78 via I-287 to home. Have to adjust work schedules today. Appreciate the advice!

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Post by heehaw453 Tue Feb 01, 2022 10:11 am

billg315 wrote:No thanks on the ice. If it isn't going to be snow, I'll take 50* and rain.

I think some ice is coming with this setup. I'm hoping 1/4" max which is much different than 1/2" w.r.t. impacts.

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Post by SoulSingMG Tue Feb 01, 2022 10:24 am

We've seen this movie before... Suspect

Monitoring February 4th - Page 2 Eaa71b10
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Post by SENJsnowman Tue Feb 01, 2022 10:33 am

SoulSingMG wrote:We've seen this movie before... Suspect

Monitoring February 4th - Page 2 Eaa71b10

Wow, that's a huge shift south in one run!

Is this type of setup ripe for a significant amount of add'l southern suppression? I thought I've seen several times where a strong cold front that keeps pressing down from Canada from day 3-5 ends up marching south at a breakneck rate starting at about 3 days out and especially at 2 days out.

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