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Tropics

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GreyBeard
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Sep 29, 2022 11:33 am

Almost a hurricane again, now headed for SC, this is just one of the records, awful. Technically already had two landfalls, the small island and then mainland FL.  Also a cat 1 again winds 70 mph. I find it crazy theres been no talk of Cuba, they must have had pretty bad damage, I know the US is main focus but dang they don't care about Cuba at all.
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Post by weatherwatchermom Thu Sep 29, 2022 11:35 am

Cyanide02Z06 wrote:My parents rode out Ian in Punta Gorda.  They are on a canal.  Just spoke to them.  Wind damage but no flooding.  For taking a direct hit, they got lucky.
Thank goodness 😊
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Post by amugs Thu Sep 29, 2022 11:56 am

jmanley32 wrote:Almost a hurricane again, now headed for SC, this is just one of the records, awful. Technically already had two landfalls, the small island and then mainland FL.  Also a cat 1 again winds 70 mph.  I find it crazy there's been no talk of Cuba, they must have had pretty bad damage, I know the US is main focus but dang they don't care about Cuba at all.

True the whole islands grid failed -11 million wout any power!!

Great point JMAN, Bastardi said 3 landfalls on USA soil!
He will strengthen to a CAT 1 before wrecking havoc on SC coastline - its different when you have a strengthening Hurricane/tropical cyclone than a weakening one.

Jman no I do not believe but maybe who knows, he's a menace!!

Tremendous amount of military aircraft flying over for surveillance the Ft Meyers area - they are using Chinooks now, ex military said that's not a good sign at all. Did not elaborate but I'll take his word.


Last edited by amugs on Thu Sep 29, 2022 1:04 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Post by amugs Thu Sep 29, 2022 12:18 pm

Oh man watch for RI = rapid intensification for this bad boy over the warm,  low shear water of the atlantic again!!
South Carolina get ready!!

Tropics - Page 16 Fd1VpyQWIAMjVWe?format=jpg&name=medium

This would be damaging for the lowlands of SC and GA - I've been through and it did not get its name for nothing!! Swamp and marsh land for miles!

Tropics - Page 16 Fd1XuLaWQAAoEBC?format=jpg&name=900x900


Last edited by amugs on Thu Sep 29, 2022 1:04 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Post by brownie Thu Sep 29, 2022 12:30 pm

I just want to wish good thoughts for all the friends and family members of the posters here who had to experience this storm.  So far it sounds like everyone is physically okay? But lots of catastrophic property damage, which will be so difficult to endure.

@Joe Snow , how are you?

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Post by amugs Thu Sep 29, 2022 1:07 pm

Tropics - Page 16 Fd1hlKlXoAcb0k6?format=jpg&name=medium

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Post by amugs Thu Sep 29, 2022 1:59 pm

St Augustine seeing widespread flooding on the east coast from Ian




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Post by Cyanide02Z06 Thu Sep 29, 2022 2:50 pm

Woah...

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Post by dkodgis Thu Sep 29, 2022 4:54 pm

https://twitter.com/mesomax919/status/1575511789386833923?s=42&t=BAeNLcotRYD5pm4nMQtF3A
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Post by Dunnzoo Thu Sep 29, 2022 5:28 pm

Just talked to my brother, in Cape Coral, had most of his shingles blown off, his neighbor lost their roof. They had no street flooding, but raining inside the house, he has a 1 story ranch. Palm trees in his yard destroyed. Some people are already approaching homeowners with contracts to help them file paperwork with FEMA and their insurance companies, but they are charging a 10% fee regardless if the homeowner gets money or not! My brother told them to get lost, got his guns loaded and is keeping them handy. He and his wife won't have jobs to go to for weeks, maybe months if the businesses come back at all. Such a mess, but glad they are ok.

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Post by amugs Thu Sep 29, 2022 8:13 pm

The best of humanity comes out when people are in need and some of the evil as well. Thank Goodness Janet he is okay and SROC your freind I'd as well.

Officials said members of about 200 households declined to evacuate, and 12 people were taken off the island with injuries. Only 12 accounted for so far........

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Sep 29, 2022 9:26 pm

Dunnzoo wrote:Just talked to my brother, in Cape Coral, had most of his shingles blown off, his neighbor lost their roof. They had no street flooding, but raining inside the house, he has a 1 story ranch. Palm trees in his yard destroyed. Some people are already approaching homeowners with contracts to help them file paperwork with FEMA and their insurance companies, but they are charging a 10% fee regardless if the homeowner gets money or not! My brother told them to get lost, got his guns loaded and is keeping them handy. He and his wife won't have jobs to go to for weeks, maybe months if the businesses come back at all. Such a mess, but glad they are ok.
Ugg life is just so no fair sometimes, not only lose everything but then no income either. I hope they are go be okay. Scammers profitting from this I would headbutt them.
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Post by amugs Thu Sep 29, 2022 9:26 pm

92mph winds - ready for take off part 2

down to 987 mb

Tropics - Page 16 Fd3ue610
Tropics - Page 16 Screen15

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Sep 29, 2022 9:33 pm

amugs wrote:92mph winds - ready for take off part 2

down to 987 mb

Tropics - Page 16 Fd3ue610
Tropics - Page 16 Screen15
That windfield is insane, for a fully tropical system, reminds me of about sandy's size. would not take much of a jog north to get the area into TS winds but that isnt' going to happen, I do see it looks like rain now sat which sux. HWRF is a lot of rain. And a number of models spin off a LP or TS early next week? Is that related to Ian at all or seperate? We may have to watch that one.
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Post by amugs Fri Sep 30, 2022 8:48 am

Here he comes - Myrtle Beach storm surge iup through Wilmington

Tropics - Page 16 Fd53-iHWQAIDOlj?format=jpg&name=900x900

Power outages too
Tropics - Page 16 Fd53-iGWIAMvef9?format=jpg&name=medium

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Post by amugs Fri Sep 30, 2022 11:47 am

Tropics - Page 16 Fd6gEeBXoAYl7lN?format=jpg&name=small

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Post by amugs Fri Sep 30, 2022 1:10 pm

Myrtle Beach Major Storm Surge Flooding
Tropics - Page 16 Fd6zbhpX0AsAwic?format=jpg&name=large

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Post by amugs Fri Sep 30, 2022 1:12 pm


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Post by GreyBeard Fri Sep 30, 2022 2:43 pm

amugs wrote:Hundreds dead. Cape Coral, Port Charlotte, etc -- very populated area with lots of seniors. Death toll might be in the thousands.

Where did you get this information?  As it stands as of the time of this post, the death toll is at 14, but possibly as high as 21, but it hasn't been confirmed if all were storm related. I urge you to be more cautious and do a bit of fact checking before you make statements like that. No need to cause people any more undue stress.

This:
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/live-blog/hurricane-ian-live-updates-rcna50130



Or this:


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Post by sroc4 Fri Sep 30, 2022 3:18 pm

GreyBeard wrote:
amugs wrote:Hundreds dead. Cape Coral, Port Charlotte, etc -- very populated area with lots of seniors. Death toll might be in the thousands.

Where did you get this information?  As it stands as of the time of this post, the death toll is at 14, but possibly as high as 21, but it hasn't been confirmed if all were storm related. I urge you to be more cautious and do a bit of fact checking before you make statements like that. No need to cause people any more undue stress.

This:
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/live-blog/hurricane-ian-live-updates-rcna50130



Or this:



Here are two of multiple sources for the original fears that hundreds were dead.  The sheriff of Ft Meyers made the statement yesterday before anyone could get in to certain areas still This statement has since been walked back a little.  Given how many people did not evacuate and the extent of the obliteration it wasn't unreasonable for the sheriff to make the statement that he believed hundreds would be dead.  Its not unreasonable for Mugs to pass along the info given by a high ranking official in the Ft Meyers area.  I seriously doubt Mugs made it up.  There is a good chance the century mark is reached before all is said and done once they dig through all the ruble.  There are still thousands unaccounted for.   https://people.com/human-interest/hurricane-ian-at-least-21-dead-thousands-unaccounted-for/


https://www.newsweek.com/hurricane-ian-death-toll-hundreds-florida-sheriff-1747511
https://people.com/human-interest/hurricane-ian-death-toll-may-be-in-the-hundreds-sheriff-fears/

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WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
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Post by GreyBeard Fri Sep 30, 2022 3:37 pm

I never said he made it up, I asked where he got that information. I saw the statement the sheriff made which the governor later said "had not been confirmed". Nowhere did I see anyone say that the death toll may be in the thousands.

20 minutes ago:

https://news.yahoo.com/hurricane-ian-kills-hundreds-fort-122930890.html

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Post by sroc4 Fri Sep 30, 2022 3:57 pm

GreyBeard wrote:I never said he made it up, I asked where he got that information. I saw the statement the sheriff made which the governor later said "had not been confirmed". Nowhere did I see anyone say that the death toll may be in the thousands.

20 minutes ago:

https://news.yahoo.com/hurricane-ian-kills-hundreds-fort-122930890.html

I was pointing out that thousands are still unaccounted for.  Not necessarily that they are all dead.  For some perspective the red cross reported 117 dead from Sandy: https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/mm6220a1.htm

This storm had much higher surge for a much longer duration, much higher winds, and many more who did not leave.  Lets just hope and pray the numbers don't rise much more but I will remain pessimistic on this one.  Again Im hoping im proven wrong.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 0.00      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
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Post by GreyBeard Fri Sep 30, 2022 4:48 pm

Like you, and many members of the forum, we all know or have friends and family living in Florida. Mine are all on the south east coast which was spared this go round. We can only hope and pray that the numbers stay low. Property damage is devastating enough,but I could not and would not want to imagine ever losing a friend or loved one like that.

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Post by Dunnzoo Fri Sep 30, 2022 4:51 pm

sroc4 wrote:
GreyBeard wrote:I never said he made it up, I asked where he got that information. I saw the statement the sheriff made which the governor later said "had not been confirmed". Nowhere did I see anyone say that the death toll may be in the thousands.

20 minutes ago:

https://news.yahoo.com/hurricane-ian-kills-hundreds-fort-122930890.html

I was pointing out that thousands are still unaccounted for.  Not necessarily that they are all dead.  For some perspective the red cross reported 117 dead from Sandy: https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/mm6220a1.htm

This storm had much higher surge for a much longer duration, much higher winds, and many more who did not leave.  Lets just hope and pray the numbers don't rise much more but I will remain pessimistic on this one.  Again Im hoping im proven wrong.

Also, the officials were saying they don't know how many residents evacuated, so until they are all accounted for, no one will know what the toll will be. People evacuated to so many places across the state, and probably still can't get back to their homes. No one should be saying or guestimating anything at this point...

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Snowfall winter of 2020-2021        51.1"
Snowfall winter of 2019-2020        8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by GreyBeard Fri Sep 30, 2022 5:08 pm

Dunnzoo wrote:

Also, the officials were saying they don't know how many residents evacuated, so until they are all accounted for, no one will know what the toll will be. People evacuated to so many places across the state, and probably still can't get back to their homes. No one should be saying or guestimating anything at this point...

Good point. Undoubtably, it will be some time before the final numbers are in.

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