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Rocktober Obs & Discussions

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SENJsnowman
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Post by amugs Sun Oct 02, 2022 5:50 am

Well folks we are in the double digit month of the year already!! Where has the time gone so far this year?
Will October be rocking and be ahiled as Rocktober? Or will it be just an old October?
This month will be below normal temperature I would say looking at guidance but one never knows with the weather.

Well we start the month will rawish conditions and it gets even more so as the son of Ian forms a Coastal low, mini Nor' (Nor' Easter) of the Delmarva and Jersey coast batering the entire region and really hammering SNE from Monday thorugh Tuesday Night in it progression. Jersey shore folks will endure strong NE winds 30-35 plus mph winds, some beach erosion, and minor to moderate tidal flooding plus lots of wind swept rains!!! The NYC metro region will have winds about 20-25 plus mph winds, and about 1-2" of wetness. LI gets hamered with 30-40 mph winds plus with beach ersosion, wind swepts rains and coastal flooding. Had this is the Septemeber thread but here we are in Rocktober.

Oh we have what appears to be a two day warm up into the 70's/low 80's Wed and Thursday and then the hammer drops as we see teh first frosts and freeze warnings of the season area wide - well not the UHI of NYC metro but Passaic NW portion id say and even NW Bergen N and W.

Rocktober Obs & Discussions FeEESWnWQAQJXDt?format=jpg&name=large

Rocktober Obs & Discussions FeEESWpXEAAtWXu?format=jpg&name=large

Next Saturday um Houston someone needs to wake up Cp from his slumber??
Rocktober Obs & Discussions Gfs_T2m_neus_30
Rocktober Obs & Discussions FeDEZbHXgAccPeN?format=jpg&name=4096x4096

Rocktober Obs & Discussions FeDEgFkWAAAiK41?format=jpg&name=4096x4096

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
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Post by dkodgis Sun Oct 02, 2022 6:33 am

53

Raining steadily but lightly. I plugged in the guitar this morning and lit the house up. Made the kid and the wife jump out of bed. Great stuff.

I am bringing in the outdoor plants today and setting them up in the basement (house plants, nothing more) with the grow lights. I appreciate the hibiscus blooming and staying around to the top of Feb. I never seem to get past that point. The coleus always winter through. Geranimums too. When the umbrellas dry, they go in. Around this time next month, the cushions come in. The deck furniture gets covered. I all goes to sleep until late April, early May.

Doc, I brought out my old coal skoal. I have it filled with coal. I toss in a handful here and there when the wood is burning brightly to get more heat in the dead of winter.
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Post by amugs Sun Oct 02, 2022 6:39 am

Here's the Ian Fleein Hybrid Coastal as per 6Z Euro

Rocktober Obs & Discussions FeEKHiNXoAAcA8w?format=png&name=medium

Rocktober Obs & Discussions FeEKJKEWYAIIRe7?format=png&name=medium

Waves off shore WOW - Gale Warnings??

Rocktober Obs & Discussions FeEKKc3XkAIME9t?format=png&name=medium

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by frank 638 Sun Oct 02, 2022 10:22 am

Happy October my favorite month and time of the year .
A cool windy day here no rain yet .

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Post by kalleg Sun Oct 02, 2022 10:37 am

Nearly 2.5 inches so far in New Hope since just after 9 this morning...

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Post by amugs Sun Oct 02, 2022 10:58 am

OH SO CLOSE!! MOVE this NW by about 75 miles please!!

Rocktober Obs & Discussions Inxr1Kphla_h

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Oct 02, 2022 12:32 pm

amugs wrote:OH SO CLOSE!! MOVE this NW by about 75 miles please!!

Rocktober Obs & Discussions Inxr1Kphla_h
Why do you want rain? Are we so desperate for precip we have now resorted to rain over snow lol, jk
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Post by amugs Sun Oct 02, 2022 1:21 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
amugs wrote:OH SO CLOSE!! MOVE this NW by about 75 miles please!!

Rocktober Obs & Discussions Inxr1Kphla_h
Why do you want rain? Are we so desperate for precip we have now resorted to rain over snow lol, jk

We are still BN fornprecip by about 3" here plus it makes fall so fallbwhen you have rainy raw conditions brother Jman.

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by amugs Sun Oct 02, 2022 1:24 pm

Okay we may need the LR thread sooner than later this year, we have snow growth, PV, ENSO, PDO, IO Dipole, AMOC, Volcanic effects, signs are abound!!

This is interesting to see this early.


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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by amugs Sun Oct 02, 2022 1:38 pm

Many dips in terms of the jet stream. This is nindicative of frosts and freezes inbound as per Euro. The 15th dip is reminiscent of a Jan and Feb winter arctic blast. That is the 15th far right frame, middle is the 10thish, left is 8th

Rocktober Obs & Discussions Feenam10

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WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Oct 02, 2022 2:04 pm

Look at the radar loop, too cool you can see the onshore flow of precip pushing into the precip over South jersey and fueling it. Its actually moving in 2 diff directions, never seen that b4.

https://sirocco.accuweather.com/nxssa_r1_h_500x620d/r1h/inxr1kphla_h.gif
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Post by Math23x7 Sun Oct 02, 2022 11:45 pm

While the coastal cities have been getting quite a bit of rain from the remnants of Hurricane Ian, here in Albany, we haven’t gotten any rain from it. In fact, the North Country saw some breaks of sun over the weekend. On Sunday, I drove into Hamilton County to see the early stage of the foliage. Here is a picture I took from The Sacandaga River, more specifically, right off NY-30 somewhere between Wells and Speculator:

Rocktober Obs & Discussions Ebcbd310

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Post by frank 638 Mon Oct 03, 2022 2:37 am

Math23x7 wrote:While the coastal cities have been getting quite a bit of rain from the remnants of Hurricane Ian, here in Albany, we haven’t gotten any rain from it.  In fact, the North Country saw some breaks of sun over the weekend.  On Sunday, I drove into Hamilton County to see the early stage of the foliage.  Here is a picture I took from The Sacandaga River, more specifically, right off NY-30 somewhere between Wells and Speculator:

Rocktober Obs & Discussions Ebcbd310
wow beautiful pic I love this time of the year

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Post by docstox12 Mon Oct 03, 2022 2:55 am

Math23x7 wrote:While the coastal cities have been getting quite a bit of rain from the remnants of Hurricane Ian, here in Albany, we haven’t gotten any rain from it.  In fact, the North Country saw some breaks of sun over the weekend.  On Sunday, I drove into Hamilton County to see the early stage of the foliage.  Here is a picture I took from The Sacandaga River, more specifically, right off NY-30 somewhere between Wells and Speculator:

Rocktober Obs & Discussions Ebcbd310

46 degrees, raw, windy.

Math23x7, great picture, reminds me of what I see when I go up to Roscoe NY for trout fishing in the Beaverkill.God's splendor in all it's beauty!

Hey Damian, what do you play, lead or rhythm guitar? I do rhythm, maybe one day we can get together and jam and get you thrown out of the neighborhood.Hey, maybe CP is a drummer?
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Post by billg315 Mon Oct 03, 2022 5:24 am

Was down at the South Jersey Shore all weekend. Had significant tidal flooding in the streets yesterday afternoon and evening; many impassable streets on the island. We had water into our driveway almost to the garage door which is pretty far in from the street.  I’m actually planning my departure soon to coincide with low tide as another round of flooding is expected this afternoon.
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Post by billg315 Mon Oct 03, 2022 5:27 am

Wind has also been whipping since yesterday morning. Took down a stop sign across the street from us yesterday.
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Post by nutleyblizzard Mon Oct 03, 2022 7:29 am

amugs wrote:Many dips in terms of the jet stream. This is nindicative of frosts and freezes inbound as per Euro. The 15th dip is reminiscent of a Jan and Feb winter arctic blast. That is the 15th far right frame, middle is the 10thish, left is 8th

Rocktober Obs & Discussions Feenam10
I don’t ever recall the jet stream being this far south so early. Often October patterns will portend on what will happen the ensuing winter. Just have to wait and see.
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Post by sroc4 Mon Oct 03, 2022 8:06 am

A 1030 HP parked to our north with LP running into it....can we bottle this look for mid Jan??

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 0.00      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
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Post by amugs Mon Oct 03, 2022 9:07 am

Rocktober Obs & Discussions FeJdLuqWIAEbUHd?format=jpg&name=medium

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WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by billg315 Mon Oct 03, 2022 3:20 pm

Heavy rain rolling in from the Atlantic again. And only 47* with a wind chill in the low 40s. Pretty chilly for Oct 3.
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Post by Dunnzoo Mon Oct 03, 2022 3:28 pm

50* and the rain finally got here, been cloudy and cool all day...

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Snowfall winter of 2021-2022  17.6"  1" of sleet 2/25/22

Snowfall winter of 2020-2021        51.1"
Snowfall winter of 2019-2020        8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
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Post by amugs Mon Oct 03, 2022 6:05 pm

Finally some heavier rains. Now NWS says .77 down from 1.78". If this were oh boy!

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by amugs Mon Oct 03, 2022 6:07 pm

https://sirocco.accuweather.com/nxssa_r1_h_500x620d/r1h/inxr1Knyca_h.gif

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by weatherwatchermom Mon Oct 03, 2022 6:29 pm

amugs wrote:https://sirocco.accuweather.com/nxssa_r1_h_500x620d/r1h/inxr1Knyca_h.gif
We've had heavy rain for hours..and windy
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Post by weatherwatchermom Tue Oct 04, 2022 2:35 am

Wow the heavy rain and wind just woke me up..currently 45*rf 38*..wind gusts over 20+..the momma bear in me does not want my 17 yo to drive in this...but I hear my  husband in my head say..."let him be a man" lol
BE SAFE OUT THERE!!

Just under 4 inches with my new weather station..husband installed Sat inbetween rain bouts...so we are def over 4 inches of rain this weekend..
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