Re: Banter Thread 8.0

by **jmanley32** Mon Mar 13, 2023 7:35 am

Headed to work just a normal rainy day in Yonkers, looks like my year end is 4.5 inches, beating out the previous lowest. At this point I have accepted it and am moving on. And it does look like you are right heehaw most has shifted to bershires and further east. Bummer even for those in upper NY.

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by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Mon Mar 13, 2023 8:59 am

I started to get the sense on Saturday that this was not going to be one to two to three feet of snow in my area that many of the models, Euro, NAM, UKIE, even a couple of CMC runs, were outputting. I wish there was a way to punish them all for stupidity, especially the Euro and NAM but would that really bring the storm back? We expect stupidity from the NAM and everyone ignores it accordingly, the Euro should just be taken out back and put out of its misery.

The more modest forecast amounts now, 4-12 in the WSW for Orange County, was always in the range I assumed would actually happen but on the higher end of that range. I'm now convinced, at least where I am at 600 feet elevation 3 miles north of Woodbury Common, that even 4 inches will be tough to achieve.

Part of me, even though I love snow, is now hoping this is a total failure snow wise. Why not remember this Winter that never was as the epic failure that it should be remembered as. Let's go out with a gang buster of a bust and wake up Wednesday morning with a half inch of backend slush. It's the only way for this miserable season that wasn't to end.

Sitting at 18.5 inches for the season and need less than 4.5 inches from this storm to keep my snowfall futility record for a season. Part of me hoping for that.

by **heehaw453** Mon Mar 13, 2023 9:33 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:I started to get the sense on Saturday that this was not going to be one to two to three feet of snow in my area that many of the models, Euro, NAM, UKIE, even a couple of CMC runs, were outputting. I wish there was a way to punish them all for stupidity, especially the Euro and NAM but would that really bring the storm back? We expect stupidity from the NAM and everyone ignores it accordingly, the Euro should just be taken out back and put out of its misery.

The more modest forecast amounts now, 4-12 in the WSW for Orange County, was always in the range I assumed would actually happen but on the higher end of that range. I'm now convinced, at least where I am at 600 feet elevation 3 miles north of Woodbury Common, that even 4 inches will be tough to achieve.

Part of me, even though I love snow, is now hoping this is a total failure snow wise. Why not remember this Winter that never was as the epic failure that it should be remembered as. Let's go out with a gang buster of a bust and wake up Wednesday morning with a half inch of backend slush. It's the only way for this miserable season that wasn't to end.

Sitting at 18.5 inches for the season and need less than 4.5 inches from this storm to keep my snowfall futility record for a season. Part of me hoping for that.

I've never seen a season this bad IMBY. Single digits in 2019/20 and now I'm on track for encore. This year much worse than 2019/20 IMBY. At least that year I had snow that stuck around more than 12 hours. There's really not much difference this year than what I'd get in Raleigh, NC in a bad year.

by **dkodgis** Mon Mar 13, 2023 9:41 am

At least it is not a mini ice age

by **heehaw453** Mon Mar 13, 2023 9:42 am

Getting pretty cranky about these winters lately.

Banter Thread 8.0 - Page 18 Giphy

by **sroc4** Mon Mar 13, 2023 9:58 am

I have a trip to St Thomas planned for exactly one month from now. I am officially moving on to that.

by **crippo84** Mon Mar 13, 2023 10:10 am

I agree with CP. Go big or go home and this year we're going big on futility. As much as I love snow (I'm confident that the withdrawal symptoms and frustration experienced this year took a year or two off my life expectancy) I was sour when the Central Park snowless record was lost over a small dusting. Deal with the full pain of this season and welcome next season with widely open arms.

Regardless - continued hats off to our meteorologists, forecasters, and enthusiasts on this board. As much as this season sucked, you all continue to help me learn and enjoy this weird hobby we all love.

by **SENJsnowman** Mon Mar 13, 2023 10:11 am

So far...Big Momma has always come back strong within one at most 2 winters of a super lame one.

I've counted 4 super lame winters for Ocean County since moving up here in May of 2012 from Broward County/Fort Lauderdale. They were 2012-13 (8-10" total), 2018-19 (5-6" total), 2019-20 (maybe 2-3" total) and this year 2022-23 (maybe a half-inch total so far). Seasonal average down here is between 20 inches and 2 feet I'd say.

Since 2012-13, we have had 3 acceptable, but no where near great winters down here: 2014-2015, 2016-2017 and 2020-21. And we've had 4 amazing winters down here in Ocean County in the past decade: 2013-14, 2015-16, 2017-18 and my favorite of all, last winter, 2021-22.

So, as someone who literally does not expect great snowfall every winter, I do expect and always seem to receive great snowfall every 2-3 years at least. And I have learned (mostly from all of you) to shift this year's frustrations into next years expectations. And of course there is some risk there, but it definitely works out well on the whole.

Maybe we'll all have just a bit more to be excited for this upcoming winter than we did heading into this winter...ie, the Big Reversion!! Maybe even a nice El Nino to go with it, too!

And before we know it, it will be October, anyways. Around here, that's when hope springs eternal!

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Mar 13, 2023 10:28 am

I can't believe the incompetence performance the EURO had with this one. Really really poor.

The NAM does not surprise me with its incompetence anymore, but I will say if you know how to use it, it's not a bad model.

by **billg315** Mon Mar 13, 2023 10:36 am

Well, in a winter where I had learned to set my expectations low to begin with, this appears likely to be the most spectacular disappointment of this winter's many disappointments. To have multiple models barking a big storm just 48-72 hours out, and then all of them to cave to the ever-reliable . . . . GFS. Rolling Eyes

Somebody just hit me over the head with a shovel.

by **jmanley32** Mon Mar 13, 2023 11:39 am

I agree with all the above, at work no time to give a more in depth though. Onto spring and garage sale hunting for me, I need to beef up on some hot items.

by **essexcountypete** Mon Mar 13, 2023 12:05 pm

billg315 wrote:Well, in a winter where I had learned to set my expectations low to begin with, this appears likely to be the most spectacular disappointment of this winter's many disappointments. To have multiple models barking a big storm just 48-72 hours out, and then all of them to cave to the ever-reliable . . . . GFS. Somebody just hit me over the head with a shovel.

I need to borrow that shovel when you're done Bill.

A godzilla-level psych-out perfectly encapsulates this horrible winter.

by **essexcountypete** Mon Mar 13, 2023 12:28 pm

crippo84 wrote:I agree with CP. Go big or go home and this year we're going big on futility. As much as I love snow (I'm confident that the withdrawal symptoms and frustration experienced this year took a year or two off my life expectancy) I was sour when the Central Park snowless record was lost over a small dusting. Deal with the full pain of this season and welcome next season with widely open arms.

Regardless - continued hats off to our meteorologists, forecasters, and enthusiasts on this board. As much as this season sucked, you all continue to help me learn and enjoy this weird hobby we all love.

Here here!!!

Many thanks to my weather peeps for the high quality weather discussion, but most importantly, the positive, good natured spirit of all the people here. While the this winter was a dud, I'm still so grateful for this community.

by **jmanley32** Mon Mar 13, 2023 9:57 pm

Alex, I need help figuring out how to have the right amount of taxes taken out at my and my wifes job to cover the taxes and self-employment tax for my ebay business so i can avoid paying quarterlies, or do you recommend paying quarterlies? I am good at keeping my books for the business that's not the issue. Turbotax did the calulations and will print slips for quaterlies to pay estimated based on last years taxable income from ebay. My only thing is 2022 was a exceptional year for me, I never know if I will have as a good a year this year. I mean i understand if I overpay then I will get a refund but why spend money I do not have to. I had a lot extra taken out of our salary jobs this year (2022) and I am still in for a world of hurt I am not sure I will make happen by the 18th (anyone want a kidney?). Feel free to PM me.

by **jmanley32** Tue Mar 14, 2023 4:26 pm

Okay well now that this junk of a storm is over and gave me what would likely been 6+ with how heavy the snow was onto spring. I do not want to hear we have anymore storms to track unless it is t-storms, wind storms or hurricanes. For the love of god let this be the last. Probably will be another teaser for the last week of March or worse april 2-4th, as I am planning a family trip to CT to see family and again on that following sat.

by **dkodgis** Tue Mar 14, 2023 8:22 pm

by **dkodgis** Tue Mar 14, 2023 8:23 pm

My wife just showed me this. Exact same date as today but in 2017

by JT33 Tue Mar 14, 2023 10:29 pm

I've asked before, and I apologize for asking again... but how do you post pictures here? I even managed to do it once before, but I can't remember what I did. Banter Thread 8.0 - Page 18 1f605

by **dkodgis** Tue Mar 14, 2023 10:33 pm

Fifth icon from the right, top row

Choose (I guess) photo library. Pick your photo. After selecting, choose insert. You will see what looks like three different lines in your message box. Don’t be spooked by that. That is correct. Then add a comment, and send your msg. My instructions are approximate. Try it and see

by JT33 Tue Mar 14, 2023 11:04 pm

Ok, I think I got it. Let's see.

by JT33 Tue Mar 14, 2023 11:05 pm

Aaaarrggghhh! I saw the pictures on "SERVING" or something, but they didn't post. I'll try again tomorrow when I can think straight. Thanks, Damian!

by **sroc4** Wed Mar 15, 2023 6:49 am

JT33 wrote:Aaaarrggghhh! I saw the pictures on "SERVING" or something, but they didn't post. I'll try again tomorrow when I can think straight. Thanks, Damian!

Uploading a picture……

After this click on the photo library and choose the photo you want. Note: you can only upload 2-3 at a time. At least that been my experience based on the size of the file.

Next click the little blue box and wait for them to fully up load

Then hit “insert all“ just once. Then you can go back up and click the icon circled in image one to close it out. Preview if you want and send.

by JT33 Wed Mar 15, 2023 10:45 am

Thanks, SRoc! I'll give it one more shot!

by JT33 Wed Mar 15, 2023 10:51 am

A bit late but thanks to Damian and SROC for all of their help!

by **sroc4** Wed Mar 15, 2023 10:56 am

Beautiful pics JT!!

by **nutleyblizzard** Wed Mar 15, 2023 12:16 pm

What a downright crap winter. Worst one for futility that I’ve ever seen. Every time there was a potential storm, there was something in the pattern to muck things up. The ongoing -PNA, the SE ridge, lack of a cold high. I can go on and on. I ended up with a paltry 4 1/2 inches of snowfall where I get 30 in a normal season. The silver lining in all of this is the demise of the 3 year La Niña. I’m looking forward to a pattern reshuffle next season.

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Wed Mar 15, 2023 12:19 pm

nutleyblizzard wrote:What a downright crap winter. Worst one for futility that I’ve ever seen. Every time there was a potential storm, there was something in the pattern to muck things up. The ongoing -PNA, the SE ridge, lack of a cold high. I can go on and on. I ended up with a paltry 4 1/2 inches of snowfall where I get 30 in a normal season. The silver lining in all of this is the demise of the 3 year La Niña. I’m looking forward to a pattern reshuffle next season.

NYC's average is 30 inches so I would think yours is a little above that.

Of course that has nothing to do with it being a crap winter which it most definitely has been.

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