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November Obs & Discussions

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Nov 01, 2022 8:19 am

October proved to be colder and wetter than normal for most, especially in southern parts of NJ.

November Obs & Discussions MonthPDeptNRCC

November Obs & Discussions MonthTDeptNRCC

On the contrary, November is shaping up to be a warmer than normal month as we begin to see wave lengths adjust to winter maritime and La Nina-like conditions develop later in the month according to the EPS:

November Obs & Discussions Eps_z500aNormMean_namer_5

November Obs & Discussions Eps_z500aNormMean_namer_7

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Post by amugs Tue Nov 01, 2022 10:26 am

Frank my call 1st half warm then we flip the 3rd week to a colder pattern, many indicators showing so but time will tell. We'll finish AN for the month temps wise by about 2-3 degress possibly. Give me a codl second half as we get to Turkey Day and run it thorugh the holidays, many would be for this.

November Obs & Discussions FgbmugsWQAAe11z?format=png&name=medium

November Obs & Discussions Fgbmvu3XwAsIM31?format=png&name=medium

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Post by amugs Tue Nov 01, 2022 10:45 am

.27" of wetness last night, very fall like morning, dark, drizzling and dreary!

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Post by amugs Tue Nov 01, 2022 11:44 am

This is what wwe want to see - from my buddy on Twitter Weather Willy C

EPO goes Negative which will help drive the colder air into the CONUS and get it east of the continental divide. I have read that that is the cold air daming for bottling up the cold air, once it gets over the rockies it can just bleed and charge eastward.
EURO
November Obs & Discussions FgfRQ6eXgAAD8R3?format=png&name=medium
GEFS
November Obs & Discussions FgfRRCWWIAApItW?format=png&name=medium

I like the look over the EPO region, the PNA should respond asthe heights rise startss dipping South and moves the trough over the PAC NW westward. If this does occur and these heights win out then the PNA goes Positive and that trough pumps the PNA and the EPO regions. This would flip teh pattern bigly and again allow a cross polar flow regime to happen.
Time will tell.

November Obs & Discussions FgfRRKWXgAAFs6P?format=jpg&name=medium

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Post by amugs Tue Nov 01, 2022 12:54 pm

Noting the changes over the EPO and PNA region is key. Should read +PNA not weaker - PNA

November Obs & Discussions Fgacu6BWIAQuoe1?format=jpg&name=medium


Last edited by amugs on Wed Nov 02, 2022 7:58 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Post by billg315 Tue Nov 01, 2022 1:48 pm

Fog yesterday morning was crazy. Was a rare time where I actually couldn't see the road/traffic more than a hundred feet or so ahead. Was not nearly as bad this morning. Hope this is all cleared out tonight.
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Post by amugs Wed Nov 02, 2022 1:08 pm

The longation of the PV will help usher in BN temps as we flip midish month, beofre that its Indian Summer

November Obs & Discussions FgkJXblWAAA9lR_?format=png&name=medium

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Post by Quietace Wed Nov 02, 2022 2:46 pm

Agree with Mugs; going to have to watch the back end of the month for a good 180. 1st half will be well well above-normal, but we will likely then get a few potential BN shots and then chances for the first snow near Thanksgiving.
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Post by amugs Fri Nov 04, 2022 2:35 pm

Cattle Prod as the Great Joe Bastardi says to teh atmosphere - the SOI - Southern Osciallting Index is decresing which should allow for a MJO progression into phase 8 and allow a Negative EPO and Nuetral to Positive PNA to form and push the trough just E of Hawaii. All good news to a pattern change to more November like and below normal temps. Startiing next weekendish.

November Obs & Discussions FgunEGHWIAAEAYj?format=jpg&name=large

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Post by amugs Fri Nov 04, 2022 2:37 pm

The post above results in the GEPS - 1st image cut off and last image  EPS - USA wide cold!! GEFS isn't far off!
November Obs & Discussions FgvFokYWAAAirCM?format=jpg&name=large

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Post by Dunnzoo Fri Nov 04, 2022 9:33 pm

Glorious day today! Took a ride to Newburgh NY for lunch. Taking advantage of the next few beautiful days...

November Obs & Discussions Hudson10

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Post by HectorO Sat Nov 05, 2022 11:32 am

Definitely taking advantage and using it as clean up days. But it does feel ominous😂
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Post by Dunnzoo Sat Nov 05, 2022 12:51 pm

Hit 75* today, clouds now moving in so I think we've topped out for today. I have all the windows open airing out the house. 2 more days and the heat will be back on! geek

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Post by frank 638 Sat Nov 05, 2022 1:33 pm

74 * cant wait till the cooler weather to warm for me

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Nov 05, 2022 6:54 pm

I just can't with this crazy weather. Anyone says theres no global warming is wrong. 80 degrees Nov. 5th, Christmas music in Starbucks (can't even wait till mid November?!!) and a potential hurricane for FL and nor-easter for us from the remnants. And looks like it may be another crummy winter? Of course far to early to tell but aren't la nina winters usually really warm and snowless or lots precip but to warm for snow? I hope it gets cool again soon, I have had enough of this weather.
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Post by weatherwatchermom Sat Nov 05, 2022 7:58 pm

80* today drove around with roof down ..except when I had to take son to dr...he was cold  November Obs & Discussions 1f62a
FLU is rampant right now...
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Post by amugs Sat Nov 05, 2022 10:23 pm

This is one hellnof an EPO ridge and PNA
November Obs & Discussions Fg127y10

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Post by docstox12 Sun Nov 06, 2022 5:45 am

Could have used AC yesterday in the house.Right now 68 degrees, very high for this time of year, up to 73 with showers on tap.
Agree with J man on the early Christmas ads.Started seeing them right after Halloween.Back in the stone age, those ads started right after Thanksgiving.
I can see why people get sick like Weathermom's son, with these crazy temp swings.Hope he gets better fast,MOM.
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Post by weatherwatchermom Sun Nov 06, 2022 11:40 am

docstox12 wrote:Could have used AC yesterday in the house.Right now 68 degrees, very high for this time of year, up to 73 with showers on tap.
Agree with J man on the early Christmas ads.Started seeing them right after Halloween.Back in the stone age, those ads started right after Thanksgiving.
I can see why people get sick like Weathermom's son, with these crazy temp swings.Hope he gets better fast,MOM.
The craft stores start with Christmas in August...lol I just ignore until after Halloween...the AC was definitely cranking yesterday... it's already 75* outside..a bit breezy...

Thank you, I hope so too..he went to a friends for Halloween and almost everyone that was there has the flu.. Shocked Shocked
(he has his shot..and the doc said he should not have it as bad..hopefully we turn the corner today and it does not spread to his dad and I) The nurse at school and the doctor said it's rampant right now.
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Post by docstox12 Sun Nov 06, 2022 7:21 pm

68 degrees, partly cloudy.Heavy shower around noon today.Once again, winter storm warnings and watches in NW Central areas, day after day.
Wow,Mom, this flu sounds bad.Had my shot and a bad reaction the next day, felt like I had a mild case.Take plenty of Vitamin C, always helped me when I had my Dental Office 25 years to avoid colds and flu.When you are self employed, there are no sick days.LOL.
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Post by amugs Sun Nov 06, 2022 8:48 pm

We have a MASSIVE cold intrusion for the entire country starting Saturday. And we have a nice elongation of the PV starting the 13th and stretching even further on the 19th.

November Obs & Discussions Fg5-np10
November Obs & Discussions Fg5vvz10

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Post by amugs Sun Nov 06, 2022 9:02 pm

NAVGEM IS AMPED = Sign for other models to follow suite but not nearly as intense.

November Obs & Discussions Fg6uzk10

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Post by GreyBeard Mon Nov 07, 2022 12:50 pm

Currently 77° and sunny. What's not to like about a day like this? Plenty of cold weather will be here soon enough. Just finished some yard work and gave the car a bath. Looks like the bottom drops out tonight though, predicting lows in the 40's, so at least a 30° swing.

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Post by Sparky Sparticles Mon Nov 07, 2022 3:45 pm

GreyBeard wrote:Looks like the bottom drops out tonight though, predicting lows in the 40's, so at least a 30° swing.

My adult son just had the flu last week and still isn't 100%.

He works nights, so later today it'll still be near 80º when he goes in, but when he comes home at 6am it'll be closer to 40º. He's hoping he doesn't get sick all over again. Sad
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Post by docstox12 Mon Nov 07, 2022 6:43 pm

Sparky Sparticles wrote:
GreyBeard wrote:Looks like the bottom drops out tonight though, predicting lows in the 40's, so at least a 30° swing.

My adult son just had the flu last week and still isn't 100%.

He works nights, so later today it'll still be near 80º when he goes in, but when he comes home at 6am it'll be closer to 40º. He's hoping he doesn't get sick all over again. Sad

64 on the way down to 36, clear and calm winds.
These temperature swings do not help with colds and flu for sure.
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