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November Obs & Discussions

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Post by weatherwatchermom Fri Nov 11, 2022 11:06 pm

Currently 70 degrees at 11 pm...eeww
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Post by SENJsnowman Fri Nov 11, 2022 11:47 pm

Could be some rough stuff still incoming tonight.

November Obs & Discussions - Page 3 D7c1f310

There is definitely some rough stuff happening to my east tonight in beautiful downtown central Virginia
November Obs & Discussions - Page 3 0e818c10

And it almost took a bite out of me. Near miss to the north…but a direct hit for Richmond.
November Obs & Discussions - Page 3 B4c2a110

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Post by brownie Sat Nov 12, 2022 6:03 am

68°F here at 6 am and still raining.  The rain woke me at 4 am.  It lightened up for a while, but there is a torrential downpour happening right now.

Yesterday late afternoon (4-6 pm) seemed to be the worst of the sustained rain.

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Post by dkodgis Sat Nov 12, 2022 11:39 am

The rain fell apart last night. Just .25 more for 1.5 inches. I saw it in the radar but poof!  62 at home; 68 in the Bronx where I am
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Post by docstox12 Sat Nov 12, 2022 12:07 pm

60 degrees, partly cloudy and breezy.Looks like 20's-40's next week with a chance of seeing some flakes Tuesday night.
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Post by amugs Sun Nov 13, 2022 6:08 pm

Oy vey but what a flip i fthis happens indeed inside 180 so LOL!!
Anyway we have ana ctive STJ = Southern Jet Stream that will send impulses of Low Pressure Systems up along tehbpuondary front, ones ets up to our west Tuesday into Wed and soem nback end snows in dem hills, wet flakes to teh coast is possible.
Then again Friday and the Sunday into Monday possibly could be wouldnt surprise me:
November Obs & Discussions - Page 3 Prateptype_cat_ecmwf.us_ne.thumb.png.9302f0b1f4449bb47b526c483c460b54

and tihs

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Post by amugs Sun Nov 13, 2022 8:55 pm

Holy MOTHER OF Negative EPO's 13 -14 n 14-15 shades!!

November Obs & Discussions - Page 3 Fhffd210
November Obs & Discussions - Page 3 Image_11

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Post by amugs Sun Nov 13, 2022 10:29 pm

The warm up is going to be muted or negated when you have an elongation of the PV.

November Obs & Discussions - Page 3 Fhfclj10

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Nov 14, 2022 8:22 am

After a mild last few days we're looking at a pretty significant drop in temperatures. The cold weather will last up to Thanksgiving. Looks like it turns mild again for the holiday.

November Obs & Discussions - Page 3 Gfs-ens_T2maMean_us_4

November Obs & Discussions - Page 3 Gfs-ens_T2maMean_us_6

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Nov 14, 2022 8:25 am

The NAM shows a burst of snow working its way into NW NJ and SNY late Tuesday before it changes over to rain.

November Obs & Discussions - Page 3 Namconus_ref_frzn_neus_38

Pretty soggy Wednesday with about 1 inch or less of rain expected. However, would not be surprised areas N&W of NYC, especially toward Albany, to see their first accumulations of the season. Maybe a few inches!!

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Post by amugs Mon Nov 14, 2022 9:32 am

BOOOYAHHH!
November Obs & Discussions - Page 3 Fhf8IF3XgAEPhgS?format=jpg&name=medium

November Obs & Discussions - Page 3 Fhf8I8RXwAIyfpM?format=jpg&name=medium

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Post by amugs Mon Nov 14, 2022 9:33 am

November Obs & Discussions - Page 3 FhhpUA_XEAEZYlO?format=jpg&name=medium

_________________
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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by amugs Mon Nov 14, 2022 9:34 am

November Obs & Discussions - Page 3 FhhpHreXwAE7Fll?format=jpg&name=small

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by sroc4 Mon Nov 14, 2022 11:36 am

Looks like this Wednesday's system is setting up to be our first Miller B type set up of the season. As has been stated there is energy that is trying to cut to the west but gets booted to the coast because it runs into some confluence to the NE and a 1030 +/- HP to the North. The positioning of the HP is a tad too far N IMO to have major impacts for our area for for sure our NW folks could see some accumulation. Id say for now best guess without a ton of detailed analysis brings the initial front end R/S line perhaps as far south as the LHV. Maybe brief flakes as far south as the I-95. Yes I said it.

That said its very early in the season so the waters off the coast are still very warm relatively speaking. So ANY winds coming off the water will quickly warm the mid layers. Also the flow out in the North Atlantic is progressive so there isn't a whole lot preventing the HP from getting booted and the initial LP cuts to the west. Eventually the energy phases and gets transferred off the coast and gives N NE a decent snow event, but this one will happen too late for anything sign around these parts...at least IMO and at least as is currently modeled.

Cold air damning is a real thing and can lead to surprise accumulation, but temper expectations, even if you are N&W. I brief period of sleet or even ZR is possible in some areas N&W.

Something to track!

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 0.00      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
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Post by sroc4 Mon Nov 14, 2022 12:02 pm

I dare to say the north Shore of LI is still in play for a few wet flakes too.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 0.00      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
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Post by aiannone Mon Nov 14, 2022 12:07 pm

sroc4 wrote:I dare to say the north Shore of LI is still in play for a few wet flakes too.  

Scott is feeling lucky Very Happy
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Post by sroc4 Mon Nov 14, 2022 12:32 pm

aiannone wrote:
sroc4 wrote:I dare to say the north Shore of LI is still in play for a few wet flakes too.  

Scott is feeling lucky Very Happy

November Obs & Discussions - Page 3 ?u=https%3A%2F%2Fmedia1.tenor.com%2Fimages%2F8a0b712edafd89dfbedf4e9121d5bfc4%2Ftenor

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 0.00      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
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Post by dkodgis Mon Nov 14, 2022 12:45 pm

(Scott blows on the dice)

“Baby needs a new pair of shoes”
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Post by amugs Mon Nov 14, 2022 12:52 pm

The coldish mo renormal temps looks to stick around Turkey day and weekend from the looks of this map and teleconnections of the AO and NAO.

GEFS
Trough over the EC Black Friday
November Obs & Discussions - Page 3 Gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_45

Sunday Travel Day Trough still there - potential coastal storm
November Obs & Discussions - Page 3 Gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_52

NAO

November Obs & Discussions - Page 3 FhiODJqXEAAeV4o?format=jpg&name=small






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Post by billg315 Mon Nov 14, 2022 2:04 pm

The surface temperatures are really cold during the initial stages of this storm Tuesday night, but the 850s get above freezing pretty quick. The NAM does show the potential for some freezing rain across a good chunk of Northwest NJ, far North Jersey, and the Hudson Valley while the GFS and the Euro have slightly higher surface temps at that time.
I think if you are north of I-80 there is a good chance you see some snowflakes at the start of this (not a lock, just a decent chance). As for the ice threat, that is usually overdone, but the surface temps do make me wonder if some areas may be susceptible to icing.
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Post by docstox12 Mon Nov 14, 2022 2:40 pm

dkodgis wrote:(Scott blows on the dice)

“Baby needs a new pair of shoes”

LOL, "roll dem bones" Doc

42, partly sunny, breezy.Nice Fall day, trees bare and a hint of some snow tuesday night!
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Nov 14, 2022 7:29 pm

Hoping those to the N/W see their first accumulation, asking for snow down to the coast is asking too much but I will be happy to even see some flakes. Looks like theres a big storm potential around thanksgiving, looks like mostly rain but far north gets snow in ft!
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Post by docstox12 Mon Nov 14, 2022 7:41 pm

WWA up for my area 2 inches possible.Think Damian will see that maybe an inch in my area of the LHV.
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Post by amugs Mon Nov 14, 2022 8:51 pm

This is a perfectly fine map for mid November . We have an anomalous warm ocean that will keep temps above freezing. We need an anomalous cold air mass to overcome this in Nov.

November Obs & Discussions - Page 3 Fhkofn10

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Post by Grselig Mon Nov 14, 2022 9:20 pm

docstox12 wrote:WWA up for my area 2 inches possible.Think Damian will see that maybe an inch in my area of the LHV.

Ahh. Good luck Doc. May it snow early. And often (for all of us).
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