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November Obs & Discussions

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Post by dkodgis Tue Nov 15, 2022 8:38 pm

Snowing still 

30 degrees. About two inches
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Post by amugs Tue Nov 15, 2022 9:06 pm

Not a warm look AT ALL. Friday 25th.
November Obs & Discussions - Page 5 Fhn8zt10

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Post by amugs Wed Nov 16, 2022 8:44 am

Recieved .7" of cold rain overnight and a drizzle this morning at 39*.
This is just magnificent!! Live CAM of the Adirondacks snowfall. Natures beauty!
https://www.camp-of-the-woods.org/camp-cam

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Nov 16, 2022 11:16 am

I saw some snow pics, nice!! What did the northern members end up with?

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Nov 16, 2022 11:32 am

Just a cold rain last might and cold misting drizzle this morning which to me is worse than a steady rain. Hoping for something soon.
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Post by Dunnzoo Wed Nov 16, 2022 11:34 am

Road trip anyone??? Laughing
November Obs & Discussions - Page 5 Snowma10

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Post by frank 638 Wed Nov 16, 2022 11:42 am

Dunnzoo wrote:Road trip anyone??? Laughing
November Obs & Discussions - Page 5 Snowma10
i am in I will pay for the gas 😂

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Nov 16, 2022 11:44 am

frank 638 wrote:
Dunnzoo wrote:Road trip anyone??? Laughing
November Obs & Discussions - Page 5 Snowma10
i am in I will pay for the gas 😂
Oh yeah, I think they are supposed to get more than that too over the next week or two, insane.
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Post by amugs Wed Nov 16, 2022 12:05 pm

BOOYAAAHHH!!

November Obs & Discussions - Page 5 Fhr51wZWYAEJIh5?format=jpg&name=medium

Next one - If this isn't the Arkansas Razorback Full Court Press I do not know. A 1042 HP is stout and will take over large swath of territory with cold!!

November Obs & Discussions - Page 5 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_37

Verbatim its ice to rain to snow at this time. Let's see if the storm is delayed and or the HP speeds up. If either happens the window is open for a snowstorm along the major city corridor. I mean by about 6 hours is all we are looking at.

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Nov 16, 2022 3:31 pm

amugs wrote:BOOYAAAHHH!!

November Obs & Discussions - Page 5 Fhr51wZWYAEJIh5?format=jpg&name=medium

Next one - If this isn't the Arkansas Razorback Full Court Press I do not know. A 1042 HP is stout and will take over large swath of territory with cold!!

November Obs & Discussions - Page 5 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_37

Verbatim its ice to rain to snow at this time. Let's see if the storm is delayed and or the HP speeds up. If either happens the window is open for a snowstorm along the major city corridor. I mean by about 6 hours is all we are looking at.
Man oh man a difference of 25-30 miles on that run is 25 inches to 3 for coast, thats going to be really hard to bite my tongue on and not get upset lol. Lets hope for that 6 hrs. Either way I will be driving 90 miles back from CT to NY that day....
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Post by weatherwatchermom Wed Nov 16, 2022 5:08 pm




https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11435055/Paralyzing-lake-storm-effect-set-hit-upper-New-York-state-Buffalo-set-buried-snow.html
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Nov 16, 2022 8:24 pm

weatherwatchermom wrote:


https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11435055/Paralyzing-lake-storm-effect-set-hit-upper-New-York-state-Buffalo-set-buried-snow.html
Insane, especially this early. 4-6 ft, if thats impossible travel up there imagine what that would be here, we would be stranded home probably till spring.
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Post by SENJsnowman Wed Nov 16, 2022 8:55 pm

I remember when this also happened about 8-10 yrs ago...the one local weather guy here Nick George (?) talking about a 'fire hose' of lake effect snow about to hit Buffalo and they literally got 4-5 feet. I heard a story the following JUNE that there were still some large piles that hadn't fully melted!  November Obs & Discussions - Page 5 1f602  November Obs & Discussions - Page 5 1f602  November Obs & Discussions - Page 5 1f602

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Post by amugs Wed Nov 16, 2022 10:11 pm

EPS is coming around to GEFS. We have a NAO block setting up, a 50/50 low, almost a ridge bridge over the Arctic region, a steep trough, a Negative AO big HP over Hudson Bay south western Shore. Ingredients are there. Let's see what happens as we move up in time. Still 8 days away.

November Obs & Discussions - Page 5 2d491210

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Nov 17, 2022 2:57 am

Humina 00z gfs! Tri state gets hit with 42 hrs of precip lol damn too bad it's 210 plus hours out
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Post by amugs Thu Nov 17, 2022 9:51 am

jmanley32 wrote:Humina 00z gfs! Tri state gets hit with 42 hrs of precip lol damn too bad it's 210 plus hours out

It shows the potential of the pattern - EURO is a monster rainstorm. It originates from teh Bay of Tampico in Mexico.

Great read from Will C - the ridge axis but more so the EPO is so importnat - it is MUCh stronger than modeled which will have dwosntream efects from coast to coast

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Nov 17, 2022 10:13 am

amugs wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Humina 00z gfs! Tri state gets hit with 42 hrs of precip lol damn too bad it's 210 plus hours out

It shows the potential of the pattern - EURO is a monster rainstorm. It originates from teh Bay of Tampico in Mexico.

Great read from Will C - the ridge axis but more so the EPO is so importnat - it is MUCh stronger than modeled which will have dwosntream efects from coast to coast
ya gfs 06z is also huge rain and wind storm 976mb over cape cod. Normal noreastsr what do we need to get signed snow to coast or is that even posdible?
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Post by amugs Thu Nov 17, 2022 10:51 am

November Obs & Discussions - Page 5 FhwcmvXWAAcD32y?format=jpg&name=large

For Friday - some graupel, sleet and snow!!

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Post by sroc4 Thu Nov 17, 2022 11:28 am

jmanley32 wrote:
amugs wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Humina 00z gfs! Tri state gets hit with 42 hrs of precip lol damn too bad it's 210 plus hours out

It shows the potential of the pattern - EURO is a monster rainstorm. It originates from teh Bay of Tampico in Mexico.

Great read from Will C - the ridge axis but more so the EPO is so importnat - it is MUCh stronger than modeled which will have dwosntream efects from coast to coast
ya gfs 06z is also huge rain and wind storm 976mb over cape cod. Normal nor'easter what do we need to get signed snow to coast or is that even possible?

You need the PNA ridge to trend stronger, and or there to be well timed confluence, ie: in the form of a 50/50 low or something similar, to the NE, ahead of the system.  This will aid in reinforcing a Polar HP to our north keeping the cold air in place deterring the primary LP from cutting N and west which would shift the mid level winds off the anomalously warm ocean waters bringing the rain, sleet, Zr, slop into the equation.

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Post by algae888 Thu Nov 17, 2022 12:34 pm

New gefs trended stronger and West with the 50/50 low. As Sroc mentioned its one of the key factors. Old run on top.
November Obs & Discussions - Page 5 Gfs-en10
November Obs & Discussions - Page 5 Gfs-en11
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Nov 17, 2022 1:36 pm

sroc4 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
amugs wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Humina 00z gfs! Tri state gets hit with 42 hrs of precip lol damn too bad it's 210 plus hours out

It shows the potential of the pattern - EURO is a monster rainstorm. It originates from teh Bay of Tampico in Mexico.

Great read from Will C - the ridge axis but more so the EPO is so importnat - it is MUCh stronger than modeled which will have dwosntream efects from coast to coast
ya gfs 06z is also huge rain and wind storm 976mb over cape cod. Normal nor'easter what do we need to get signed snow to coast or is that even possible?

You need the PNA ridge to trend stronger, and or there to be well timed confluence, ie: in the form of a 50/50 low or something similar, to the NE, ahead of the system.  This will aid in reinforcing a Polar HP to our north keeping the cold air in place deterring the primary LP from cutting N and west which would shift the mid level winds off the anomalously warm ocean waters bringing the rain, sleet, Zr, slop into the equation.
12z GFS was a good hit for far northern people and NW jersey verbatim some see 1.5 ft. Coast sees maybe a few inches verbatim and a ton rain/wind. I still find that hard to believe this early but man that is a intense LP and models are consistent on something happening, it is just a matter of what sroc and Al just said. Long ways to go. I would prefer it to come on Saturday as will be traveling a fairly long distance Friday in the tri-state. Rain no problem, dumping snow more than wel come but would make travel hard.
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Post by sroc4 Thu Nov 17, 2022 2:16 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
amugs wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Humina 00z gfs! Tri state gets hit with 42 hrs of precip lol damn too bad it's 210 plus hours out

It shows the potential of the pattern - EURO is a monster rainstorm. It originates from teh Bay of Tampico in Mexico.

Great read from Will C - the ridge axis but more so the EPO is so importnat - it is MUCh stronger than modeled which will have dwosntream efects from coast to coast
ya gfs 06z is also huge rain and wind storm 976mb over cape cod. Normal nor'easter what do we need to get signed snow to coast or is that even possible?

You need the PNA ridge to trend stronger, and or there to be well timed confluence, ie: in the form of a 50/50 low or something similar, to the NE, ahead of the system.  This will aid in reinforcing a Polar HP to our north keeping the cold air in place deterring the primary LP from cutting N and west which would shift the mid level winds off the anomalously warm ocean waters bringing the rain, sleet, Zr, slop into the equation.
12z GFS was a good hit for far northern people and NW jersey verbatim some see 1.5 ft. Coast sees maybe a few inches verbatim and a ton rain/wind. I still find that hard to believe this early but man that is a intense LP and models are consistent on something happening, it is just a matter of what sroc and Al just said. Long ways to go. I would prefer it to come on Saturday as will be traveling a fairly long distance Friday in the tri-state. Rain no problem, dumping snow more than wel come but would make travel hard.


Ehhh Im not looking at hit no hit or who see what with precip types. That's all banter at this lead time IMO. Just focused on 500mb and timing and positioning and strength of the key pieces of energy. Still huge differences between models and within a given model from one run to the next. Nothing to get excited about yet.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 0.00      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Nov 17, 2022 2:44 pm

sroc4 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
amugs wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Humina 00z gfs! Tri state gets hit with 42 hrs of precip lol damn too bad it's 210 plus hours out

It shows the potential of the pattern - EURO is a monster rainstorm. It originates from teh Bay of Tampico in Mexico.

Great read from Will C - the ridge axis but more so the EPO is so importnat - it is MUCh stronger than modeled which will have dwosntream efects from coast to coast
ya gfs 06z is also huge rain and wind storm 976mb over cape cod. Normal nor'easter what do we need to get signed snow to coast or is that even possible?

You need the PNA ridge to trend stronger, and or there to be well timed confluence, ie: in the form of a 50/50 low or something similar, to the NE, ahead of the system.  This will aid in reinforcing a Polar HP to our north keeping the cold air in place deterring the primary LP from cutting N and west which would shift the mid level winds off the anomalously warm ocean waters bringing the rain, sleet, Zr, slop into the equation.
12z GFS was a good hit for far northern people and NW jersey verbatim some see 1.5 ft. Coast sees maybe a few inches verbatim and a ton rain/wind. I still find that hard to believe this early but man that is a intense LP and models are consistent on something happening, it is just a matter of what sroc and Al just said. Long ways to go. I would prefer it to come on Saturday as will be traveling a fairly long distance Friday in the tri-state. Rain no problem, dumping snow more than wel come but would make travel hard.


Ehhh  Im not looking at hit no hit or who see what with precip types.  That's all banter at this lead time IMO.  Just focused on 500mb and timing and positioning and strength of the key pieces of energy.  Still huge differences between models and within a given model from one run to the next.  Nothing to get excited about yet.  
10-4 boss lol
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Post by weatherwatchermom Fri Nov 18, 2022 7:51 am

Was watching thunder snow videos from upstate NY.. here no thundersnow, but we hit a low of 31*
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Post by amugs Fri Nov 18, 2022 9:16 am

29* here and snwo squalls tonightish around 8PM some are pronounced - maybe a quick coating to 1/4 for some

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