November Obs & Discussions

Approaching 3/4 inch on ground in Stillwater, Temperature dropped one degree to 32 degrees, sticking to the road now. Road Department just went thru and put down A lot of Salt.

34* currently with sleet, started as rain, switched to sleet, then snow, now back to sleet

Snowing still 

30 degrees. About two inches

Not a warm look AT ALL. Friday 25th.

Recieved .7" of cold rain overnight and a drizzle this morning at 39*.
This is just magnificent!! Live CAM of the Adirondacks snowfall. Natures beauty!
https://www.camp-of-the-woods.org/camp-cam

I saw some snow pics, nice!! What did the northern members end up with?

Just a cold rain last might and cold misting drizzle this morning which to me is worse than a steady rain. Hoping for something soon.

Road trip anyone???

Dunnzoo wrote:Road trip anyone???

i am in I will pay for the gas

frank 638 wrote:

Dunnzoo wrote:Road trip anyone???

i am in I will pay for the gas

Oh yeah, I think they are supposed to get more than that too over the next week or two, insane.

BOOYAAAHHH!!



Next one - If this isn't the Arkansas Razorback Full Court Press I do not know. A 1042 HP is stout and will take over large swath of territory with cold!!



Verbatim its ice to rain to snow at this time. Let's see if the storm is delayed and or the HP speeds up. If either happens the window is open for a snowstorm along the major city corridor. I mean by about 6 hours is all we are looking at.

amugs wrote:BOOYAAAHHH!!



Next one - If this isn't the Arkansas Razorback Full Court Press I do not know. A 1042 HP is stout and will take over large swath of territory with cold!!



Verbatim its ice to rain to snow at this time. Let's see if the storm is delayed and or the HP speeds up. If either happens the window is open for a snowstorm along the major city corridor. I mean by about 6 hours is all we are looking at.

Man oh man a difference of 25-30 miles on that run is 25 inches to 3 for coast, thats going to be really hard to bite my tongue on and not get upset lol. Lets hope for that 6 hrs. Either way I will be driving 90 miles back from CT to NY that day....

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11435055/Paralyzing-lake-storm-effect-set-hit-upper-New-York-state-Buffalo-set-buried-snow.html

weatherwatchermom wrote:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11435055/Paralyzing-lake-storm-effect-set-hit-upper-New-York-state-Buffalo-set-buried-snow.html

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11435055/Paralyzing-lake-storm-effect-set-hit-upper-New-York-state-Buffalo-set-buried-snow.html

Insane, especially this early. 4-6 ft, if thats impossible travel up there imagine what that would be here, we would be stranded home probably till spring.

I remember when this also happened about 8-10 yrs ago...the one local weather guy here Nick George (?) talking about a 'fire hose' of lake effect snow about to hit Buffalo and they literally got 4-5 feet. I heard a story the following JUNE that there were still some large piles that hadn't fully melted!      

EPS is coming around to GEFS. We have a NAO block setting up, a 50/50 low, almost a ridge bridge over the Arctic region, a steep trough, a Negative AO big HP over Hudson Bay south western Shore. Ingredients are there. Let's see what happens as we move up in time. Still 8 days away.

Humina 00z gfs! Tri state gets hit with 42 hrs of precip lol damn too bad it's 210 plus hours out

jmanley32 wrote:Humina 00z gfs! Tri state gets hit with 42 hrs of precip lol damn too bad it's 210 plus hours out

It shows the potential of the pattern - EURO is a monster rainstorm. It originates from teh Bay of Tampico in Mexico.

Great read from Will C - the ridge axis but more so the EPO is so importnat - it is MUCh stronger than modeled which will have dwosntream efects from coast to coast

2/6 We will use Euro ensemble 24 hr trends for today's discussion...starting above at 500mb there are two key features to watch, the ridge out west and where the vortex sets up over ECAN 48 hrs prior to storm..left new, right old..the more it presses south the more it... pic.twitter.com/CEtc1QqFoV

— Will C (@weatherwilly) November 17, 2022

amugs wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Humina 00z gfs! Tri state gets hit with 42 hrs of precip lol damn too bad it's 210 plus hours out

It shows the potential of the pattern - EURO is a monster rainstorm. It originates from teh Bay of Tampico in Mexico.

Great read from Will C - the ridge axis but more so the EPO is so importnat - it is MUCh stronger than modeled which will have dwosntream efects from coast to coast

2/6 We will use Euro ensemble 24 hr trends for today's discussion...starting above at 500mb there are two key features to watch, the ridge out west and where the vortex sets up over ECAN 48 hrs prior to storm..left new, right old..the more it presses south the more it... pic.twitter.com/CEtc1QqFoV

— Will C (@weatherwilly) November 17, 2022

ya gfs 06z is also huge rain and wind storm 976mb over cape cod. Normal noreastsr what do we need to get signed snow to coast or is that even posdible?

For Friday - some graupel, sleet and snow!!

jmanley32 wrote:

amugs wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Humina 00z gfs! Tri state gets hit with 42 hrs of precip lol damn too bad it's 210 plus hours out

It shows the potential of the pattern - EURO is a monster rainstorm. It originates from teh Bay of Tampico in Mexico.

Great read from Will C - the ridge axis but more so the EPO is so importnat - it is MUCh stronger than modeled which will have dwosntream efects from coast to coast

2/6 We will use Euro ensemble 24 hr trends for today's discussion...starting above at 500mb there are two key features to watch, the ridge out west and where the vortex sets up over ECAN 48 hrs prior to storm..left new, right old..the more it presses south the more it... pic.twitter.com/CEtc1QqFoV

— Will C (@weatherwilly) November 17, 2022

ya gfs 06z is also huge rain and wind storm 976mb over cape cod. Normal nor'easter what do we need to get signed snow to coast or is that even possible?

You need the PNA ridge to trend stronger, and or there to be well timed confluence, ie: in the form of a 50/50 low or something similar, to the NE, ahead of the system.  This will aid in reinforcing a Polar HP to our north keeping the cold air in place deterring the primary LP from cutting N and west which would shift the mid level winds off the anomalously warm ocean waters bringing the rain, sleet, Zr, slop into the equation.

New gefs trended stronger and West with the 50/50 low. As Sroc mentioned its one of the key factors. Old run on top.

sroc4 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

amugs wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Humina 00z gfs! Tri state gets hit with 42 hrs of precip lol damn too bad it's 210 plus hours out

It shows the potential of the pattern - EURO is a monster rainstorm. It originates from teh Bay of Tampico in Mexico.

Great read from Will C - the ridge axis but more so the EPO is so importnat - it is MUCh stronger than modeled which will have dwosntream efects from coast to coast

2/6 We will use Euro ensemble 24 hr trends for today's discussion...starting above at 500mb there are two key features to watch, the ridge out west and where the vortex sets up over ECAN 48 hrs prior to storm..left new, right old..the more it presses south the more it... pic.twitter.com/CEtc1QqFoV

— Will C (@weatherwilly) November 17, 2022

ya gfs 06z is also huge rain and wind storm 976mb over cape cod. Normal nor'easter what do we need to get signed snow to coast or is that even possible?

You need the PNA ridge to trend stronger, and or there to be well timed confluence, ie: in the form of a 50/50 low or something similar, to the NE, ahead of the system.  This will aid in reinforcing a Polar HP to our north keeping the cold air in place deterring the primary LP from cutting N and west which would shift the mid level winds off the anomalously warm ocean waters bringing the rain, sleet, Zr, slop into the equation.

12z GFS was a good hit for far northern people and NW jersey verbatim some see 1.5 ft. Coast sees maybe a few inches verbatim and a ton rain/wind. I still find that hard to believe this early but man that is a intense LP and models are consistent on something happening, it is just a matter of what sroc and Al just said. Long ways to go. I would prefer it to come on Saturday as will be traveling a fairly long distance Friday in the tri-state. Rain no problem, dumping snow more than wel come but would make travel hard.

jmanley32 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

amugs wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Humina 00z gfs! Tri state gets hit with 42 hrs of precip lol damn too bad it's 210 plus hours out

It shows the potential of the pattern - EURO is a monster rainstorm. It originates from teh Bay of Tampico in Mexico.

Great read from Will C - the ridge axis but more so the EPO is so importnat - it is MUCh stronger than modeled which will have dwosntream efects from coast to coast

2/6 We will use Euro ensemble 24 hr trends for today's discussion...starting above at 500mb there are two key features to watch, the ridge out west and where the vortex sets up over ECAN 48 hrs prior to storm..left new, right old..the more it presses south the more it... pic.twitter.com/CEtc1QqFoV

— Will C (@weatherwilly) November 17, 2022

ya gfs 06z is also huge rain and wind storm 976mb over cape cod. Normal nor'easter what do we need to get signed snow to coast or is that even possible?

You need the PNA ridge to trend stronger, and or there to be well timed confluence, ie: in the form of a 50/50 low or something similar, to the NE, ahead of the system.  This will aid in reinforcing a Polar HP to our north keeping the cold air in place deterring the primary LP from cutting N and west which would shift the mid level winds off the anomalously warm ocean waters bringing the rain, sleet, Zr, slop into the equation.

12z GFS was a good hit for far northern people and NW jersey verbatim some see 1.5 ft. Coast sees maybe a few inches verbatim and a ton rain/wind. I still find that hard to believe this early but man that is a intense LP and models are consistent on something happening, it is just a matter of what sroc and Al just said. Long ways to go. I would prefer it to come on Saturday as will be traveling a fairly long distance Friday in the tri-state. Rain no problem, dumping snow more than wel come but would make travel hard.

Ehhh Im not looking at hit no hit or who see what with precip types. That's all banter at this lead time IMO. Just focused on 500mb and timing and positioning and strength of the key pieces of energy. Still huge differences between models and within a given model from one run to the next. Nothing to get excited about yet.

sroc4 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

amugs wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Humina 00z gfs! Tri state gets hit with 42 hrs of precip lol damn too bad it's 210 plus hours out

It shows the potential of the pattern - EURO is a monster rainstorm. It originates from teh Bay of Tampico in Mexico.

Great read from Will C - the ridge axis but more so the EPO is so importnat - it is MUCh stronger than modeled which will have dwosntream efects from coast to coast

2/6 We will use Euro ensemble 24 hr trends for today's discussion...starting above at 500mb there are two key features to watch, the ridge out west and where the vortex sets up over ECAN 48 hrs prior to storm..left new, right old..the more it presses south the more it... pic.twitter.com/CEtc1QqFoV

— Will C (@weatherwilly) November 17, 2022

ya gfs 06z is also huge rain and wind storm 976mb over cape cod. Normal nor'easter what do we need to get signed snow to coast or is that even possible?

You need the PNA ridge to trend stronger, and or there to be well timed confluence, ie: in the form of a 50/50 low or something similar, to the NE, ahead of the system.  This will aid in reinforcing a Polar HP to our north keeping the cold air in place deterring the primary LP from cutting N and west which would shift the mid level winds off the anomalously warm ocean waters bringing the rain, sleet, Zr, slop into the equation.

12z GFS was a good hit for far northern people and NW jersey verbatim some see 1.5 ft. Coast sees maybe a few inches verbatim and a ton rain/wind. I still find that hard to believe this early but man that is a intense LP and models are consistent on something happening, it is just a matter of what sroc and Al just said. Long ways to go. I would prefer it to come on Saturday as will be traveling a fairly long distance Friday in the tri-state. Rain no problem, dumping snow more than wel come but would make travel hard.

Ehhh  Im not looking at hit no hit or who see what with precip types.  That's all banter at this lead time IMO.  Just focused on 500mb and timing and positioning and strength of the key pieces of energy.  Still huge differences between models and within a given model from one run to the next.  Nothing to get excited about yet.  

10-4 boss lol

Was watching thunder snow videos from upstate NY.. here no thundersnow, but we hit a low of 31*

29* here and snwo squalls tonightish around 8PM some are pronounced - maybe a quick coating to 1/4 for some