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Grinch storm of 2022

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frank 638
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Frank_Wx
hyde345
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Post by heehaw453 Thu Dec 22, 2022 7:20 am

Seems a similar theme around these parts.  Another Christmas and another pre-Christmas powerhouse of a storm cutting to our west. Why is it going to cut? The ULL matured too quickly with northern energy dropping into it coupled with a PNA ridge a bit too far west. 

Expect a rapid rise in temps coupled with a soaking rain (1-2") and strong wind gusts followed by a sharp drop in temperatures after 7 AM on Friday morning.  There is the potential for anafrontal snow accumulations on Friday late morning.  Yes it's like trying to catch a unicorn with anafrontal snows, but there is the potential for a C-1" NW of I-95.

06Z GFS snow accumulations positive snow depth seems about right to me.  Will start looking at the meso's today for better handle on that part. 


Grinch storm of 2022 Gfs118

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Post by TheAresian Thu Dec 22, 2022 7:47 am

Sacrilege though it may be, I'd gladly give up a future snowstorm if it meant I could miss out on everything about this storm. The idea of rain, followed by a flash freeze, bitter cold and strong gusty winds holds less than zero appeal. Wind chills in the negative teens and twenties are the wrong time to have to be thinking about potential power outages.

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Grinch storm of 2022 Empty A wild few hours setting up with wind and falling temps

Post by mmanisca Thu Dec 22, 2022 8:31 am

6 z Euro showing some pretty strong winds around 18z Friday on Long Island. Interestingly showing them more inland..Should be pretty wild with strong winds, rapidly dropping temperatures and maybe a little snow..
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Post by sroc4 Thu Dec 22, 2022 9:36 am

mmanisca wrote:6 z Euro showing some pretty strong winds around 18z Friday on Long Island. Interestingly showing them more inland..Should be pretty wild with strong winds, rapidly dropping temperatures and maybe a little snow..

With SST in the LI Sound still mid to upper 40's and the winds and air mass descending I fully expect LI Sound effects snow squalls

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 0.25"      
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Post by mikeypizano Thu Dec 22, 2022 9:53 am

At this point, I couldn't care less about the snow. I am far more worried about the flash freeze, single digit temps, and high ends. I have the generators prepped, and a bunch of batteries charged.
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Post by weatherwatchermom Thu Dec 22, 2022 9:55 am

Currently -7 and blizzard warnings where my in-laws live in Iowa..37* here in nj
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Post by SENJsnowman Thu Dec 22, 2022 10:35 am

If I may partake in the misery of this storm for a moment- I have a lovely drive from the Shore to the Poconos and back, scheduled to being in about an hour. Me, my 12 yr old on her way to winter camp, my little Forte and the Prayer of the Traveler.

My thoughts on the matter...remember Big Al from Happy Days: YEAH, yea, yea, yea...

Then on Saturday at 6 am, me and my 9 and 7 year olds hit the road at 10* degrees outside to go down to Florida. If that rain stops soon enough on Friday to allow that stiff wind to dry the ground before the freeze, I'll be quite grateful.  YEAH, yea, yea, yea...

I hope that everyone stays safe and dry and warm, and that you all still have/continue to have an amazing holiday season!

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Post by heehaw453 Thu Dec 22, 2022 11:12 am

I'm calling it.  NYC and PHL both get measurable snow from the anafrontal.  c-1".

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Post by heehaw453 Thu Dec 22, 2022 11:17 am

Low level warmth surging about 2000' ASL.  My guess is it's mixed or turned over to freezing rain for most in the immediate area. I had a bit of freezing rain at the onset.  32.5

Grinch storm of 2022 Meso10

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Post by billg315 Thu Dec 22, 2022 11:39 am

Started the morning at 28*. Sure felt like snow, but alas, now up to 36* as the precipitation is starting and the temp will only rise from here until mid-morning tomorrow, so lots of rain and wind on tap. I do agree with heehaw that there will be snowflakes flying before this all wraps up Friday. It's not much, but maybe at least a little something to head into the Christmas weekend.
Aside from the rain, wind, snow, flash freeze issues tomorrow . . . Just WOW on those Saturday and Saturday night temps. Going to take a lot of motivation to get me out the door of my warm home and to my Christmas Eve service Saturday night.
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Post by mikeypizano Thu Dec 22, 2022 11:59 am

We have like an inch here so far, too bad it'll change to rain and be gone soon. Can we just go straight to spring?
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Post by GreyBeard Thu Dec 22, 2022 12:28 pm

With the arctic cold coming, you can impress your neighbors and be the only one on the block with snow in your yard. How? you ask. Simply follow this procedure. Might take a while though. Merry Christmas to all! santa



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Post by weatherwatchermom Thu Dec 22, 2022 1:04 pm

43* heavy rain...watching the videos from wyoming and the mid west...just wild 70 degree swing in a day..
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Post by docstox12 Thu Dec 22, 2022 1:05 pm

34 degrees, light rain has started.Calm winds.
Not even a compensatory snowflake or sleet pellet!
What a Mr.Scrooge storm! Hope he has his epiphany tonight and gives me a few inches in snow showers tomorrow!
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Post by mikeypizano Thu Dec 22, 2022 1:19 pm

34, changing to rain now.
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Dec 22, 2022 2:54 pm

Was raining here, lull now. Looking out my office window the trees are blowing around a bit already.
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Post by hyde345 Thu Dec 22, 2022 3:02 pm

34 with mixed snow and rain. It was almost a moderate snow for a while and was sticking but now a mix and soon to be just rain. I have about an inch still OTG from previous snows but that should be gone by midnight. I'm hoping for a C-1 with cold front passage tomorrow.
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Dec 22, 2022 3:13 pm

Wow this is pretty nuts, pushing 80-90kts (easily 55mph gusts if not higher, why I said Advisories may be raised to warnings) at 850s during heaviest precip over night. Looks like this will be more the intense period than the actual front. The front only has 50 kt 850s.

Grinch storm of 2022 Nam3km31


Last edited by jmanley32 on Thu Dec 22, 2022 3:17 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Dec 22, 2022 3:15 pm

GFS has a decent amount of backend snow, 3km nam does not dries up super quick.
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Post by docstox12 Thu Dec 22, 2022 3:30 pm

jmanley32 wrote:GFS has a decent amount of backend snow, 3km nam does not dries up super quick.

Always a crapshoot depending on backend snow,jman, but with so much instability and the crashing temps, hoping area wide can pick up an inch or two.The bitter cold temps would keep it around.
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Post by heehaw453 Thu Dec 22, 2022 3:39 pm

There's the ULL.  It's closed off already and the ridge to its west isn't really that steep.  Even though we have strong resistance to the north it won't stop the ULL from beating against it.  Besides the ridge not being ideal the key also to this cutting is the cyclonic feed (see second picture) from the north which is amping this thing up.  It's what sroc was concerned about not having the ridge bridge between the two blocks (Alaska/Greenland).  But also note the eastern ridge which cooks the air mass.  Ideally we'd want a trough in the 50/50 to stop any ridge from forming. There are good pieces on the board, but enough bad pieces to make this toast for us.  When I look at this with perspective this really isn't that close to a big dog if that's any consolation.  it's not like this was perfect and just went offshore a bit or something.

Grinch storm of 2022 Ull17


Grinch storm of 2022 Cyclon10

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Post by heehaw453 Thu Dec 22, 2022 4:28 pm

There's a lot of energy that seems to be lurking just off shore on Saturday evening.  Cape Cod, LI need to watch for some action on this I think.  It it misses it'll be really close.

Grinch storm of 2022 Euro81
Grinch storm of 2022 Euro218

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Dec 22, 2022 4:58 pm

The NAM wants nothing to do with frontal snow

Truly a Grinch storm Twisted Evil

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Post by sroc4 Thu Dec 22, 2022 6:53 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:The NAM wants nothing to do with frontal snow

Truly a Grinch storm Twisted Evil

Yeah Im not sure Frank.  If I showed you this image from the 3k NAM what might you think????




BUT what If I showed you these images?  Exact same time stamp and model.   QPF, surface temps, 925mb, 850mb in that order. There is a lot of green in the image above in areas where temp profiles don't support green. If you just looked at the images below you would swear that QPF would be all snow across the board. There is QPF, albeit light, for like 3more hours after this time stamp. Just saying...



Grinch storm of 2022 1671832800-HBUt418A8Yw
Grinch storm of 2022 1671832800-pJk3rkPEZ9I

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 0.25"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
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Post by Dunnzoo Thu Dec 22, 2022 7:22 pm

.18" of rain so far, temp at 42.6 Wind has been picking up, gusts to 15 mph

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