Grinch storm of 2022

Frank_Wx wrote:The NAM wants nothing to do with frontal snow

Truly a Grinch storm

Yeah Im not sure Frank.  If I showed you this image from the 3k NAM what might you think????




BUT what If I showed you these images?  Exact same time stamp and model.   QPF, surface temps, 925mb, 850mb in that order. There is a lot of green in the image above in areas where temp profiles don't support green. If you just looked at the images below you would swear that QPF would be all snow across the board. There is QPF, albeit light, for like 3more hours after this time stamp. Just saying...

.18" of rain so far, temp at 42.6 Wind has been picking up, gusts to 15 mph

Just looking at the 0z NAM. I've seen some cold winter days in my life, but looking at the wind chills and seeing 3 hr block after 3 hr block go by with wind chills in the negative teens and twenties is the worst.

Temp rising, up to 45* now, wind gusts to 18 mph, .26" of rain so far. Jets stink. Correction: Zach Wilson stinks.

sroc4 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:The NAM wants nothing to do with frontal snow

Truly a Grinch storm

Yeah Im not sure Frank.  If I showed you this image from the 3k NAM what might you think????

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/nam-nest/nyc/instant_ptype/1671732000/1671832800-7FAZbGiVXe4.png

BUT what If I showed you these images?  Exact same time stamp and model.   QPF, surface temps, 925mb, 850mb in that order.   There is a lot of green in the image above in areas where temp profiles don't support green.  If you just looked at the images below you would swear that QPF would be all snow across the board.  There is QPF, albeit light, for like 3more hours after this time stamp.    Just saying...

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/nam-nest/nyc/t850_mslp_prcp6hr/1671732000/1671832800-oFBngYQgjrA.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/nam-nest/nyc/t850/1671732000/1671832800-95pZrbtLez0.png

I don’t believe there’s any precip falling after 18z tomorrow. If there’s precip around that time, or before then, I think interior NJ has a good shot at some snow bursts.

Temps 10am Saturday

A crazy squall line just blew through, 56* and pouring rain, wind gusts to 27 mph. Total rainfall so far 1.32"

56* heavy rain and thunder

57 deg heavy rain winds are howling so sad this ain’t snow

57*. Sustained winds mid 30’s Gusts over 50. Incredible winds out here

45 degrees, cloudy.
My pre white Christmas snow pack is history.
"Help us, backend, you're our only hope"!

52* Cloudy. 1.15” of rain here so far. Probably get close to 2” or more with more rain now approaching with the frontal passage. Some heavy rain showers to our west moving in and, hopefully, a little snow at the back end as temps plummet around midday. Just how strong is this storm?  Barometer at 29.24 and falling. Here is the barometric pressure chart showing the drop from the last couple days:

Have gotten little to no wind here except with the passage of the semi-squall line earlier

Temp up to 54 here and wind howling now.Mostly cloudy but see some breaks to the north.

Temp at 53* (high of 58* earlier) so far rain of 1.78" since yesterday. Highest wind gust was 27 mph at 3:30 am.

sroc4 wrote:57*. Sustained winds mid 30’s Gusts over 50. Incredible winds out here

wanna switch? Dead calm here. Barely rained. Lol

Cold air advection is rapidly pushing east.  I'm at 44 and temp is falling rapidly.  The purple line is freezing surface temps as of 8 AM near Harrisburg. You'll notice winds pick up transporting that air.

Since this storm didn't have much if any connection to the southern stream the precip amounts were rather modest.  I recorded .85" so far in rain gauge.  Normally when you get prodigious amounts of precip there's sub tropical feed from southern stream.  The SOI index being very high now it's not really in play.

Really bad in CT, 100,000 people without power and rapidly climbing, somehow my parents arent one of them. up to 103,000 as i typed this, wonder why so bad in CT and not in MA or NY, MA is only 10k.

Temperatures now beginning their descent here even ahead of the next batch of precip. Have dropped several degrees to 46*. Gives me some hope that I will see some snow when these showers to the west move through.

Oh nvm my parents are without power, ugg I hope restored in time for us to go tomorrow. 100k is probably going to take days eversource sucks.

Does anyone know why CT was hit so particularly hard versus just west and just east? I am hearing CT could be days b4 restored, our xmas plans will be ruined with 3rd yr not seeing parents and no xmas dinner as we did not plan anything. I hopoe they get restored but they live in the places they restore last.

Was 57 now 50 and 2.25" of drought busting rains.

And buddy who works for Con Ed,an engineer in charge of their gas division said they are anticipating 100k in NJ wout power and 250 in CT /RI. Buckle up.

jmanley32 wrote:Does anyone know why CT was hit so particularly hard versus just west and just east? I am hearing CT could be days b4 restored, our xmas plans will be ruined with 3rd yr not seeing parents and no xmas dinner as we did not plan anything. I hopoe they get restored but they live in the places they restore last.

Significant low level jet associated with frontogenesis which included my area.  As the heavy bands pushed through from S to N it brought those winds down to the surface.  I easy had wind gusts into the 50's.

amugs wrote:Was 57 now 50 and 2.25" of drought busting rains.

And buddy who works for Con Ed,an engineer in charge of their gas division said they are anticipating 100k in NJ wout power and 250 in CT /RI. Buckle up.

What about NY? CT is already 103k as i posted, another 140k yikes. Is it calm because we are between the two areas of the storm?

sroc4 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Does anyone know why CT was hit so particularly hard versus just west and just east? I am hearing CT could be days b4 restored, our xmas plans will be ruined with 3rd yr not seeing parents and no xmas dinner as we did not plan anything. I hopoe they get restored but they live in the places they restore last.

Significant low level jet associated with frontogenesis which included my area.  As the heavy bands pushed through from S to N it brought those winds down to the surface.  I easy had wind gusts into the 50's.

But it missed westchester somehow?

The next batch precip with embedded lines headed into NJ looks like the real deal. Looks like will impact all this time, hope you all stay safe and don't lose power, luckily Coned pretty much removed every tree in my area (but looks awful without them) but it is errily quiet right now.

Was that earlier line that sroc wrote of when the 60mph brief period the NWS said was possible was or is that still to come, im hoping it doesn't get worse in CT my daughter is really counting on seeing her g-parents tomorrow. Scott do you have power out there on LI?