NJ Strong Weather Forum


Join the forum, it's quick and easy

NJ Strong Weather Forum
NJ Strong Weather Forum
Would you like to react to this message? Create an account in a few clicks or log in to continue.

February Obs & Discussions

+30
nutleyblizzard
richb521
aiannone
SENJsnowman
GreyBeard
essexcountypete
Dunnzoo
Frozen.9
crippo84
jmanley32
Grselig
Math23x7
Frank_Wx
brownie
frank 638
hyde345
1190ftalt
sroc4
kalleg
Radz
dkodgis
phil155
billg315
weatherwatchermom
rb924119
CPcantmeasuresnow
Quietace
docstox12
amugs
heehaw453
34 posters

Page 11 of 12 Previous  1, 2, 3 ... , 10, 11, 12  Next

Go down

February Obs & Discussions - Page 11 Empty Re: February Obs & Discussions

Post by aiannone Sun Feb 26, 2023 2:50 pm

18Z HRRR is COLD!

February Obs & Discussions - Page 11 Sn10_a56

Also good video from Bernie. Talks about NYC metro in great detail
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i4Dv3_dY4YQ&t=18s

aiannone
Senior Enthusiast - Mod
Senior Enthusiast - Mod

Posts : 4814
Join date : 2013-01-07

Back to top Go down

February Obs & Discussions - Page 11 Empty Re: February Obs & Discussions

Post by heehaw453 Sun Feb 26, 2023 3:12 pm

aiannone wrote:18Z HRRR is COLD!

February Obs & Discussions - Page 11 Sn10_a56

Also good video from Bernie. Talks about NYC metro in great detail
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i4Dv3_dY4YQ&t=18s
The 18Z HRRR has a closed off 850mb low.  That's what it's going to take for amounts > 4".  Fast consolidation and slow movement.

heehaw453
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 3906
Join date : 2014-01-20

Back to top Go down

February Obs & Discussions - Page 11 Empty Re: February Obs & Discussions

Post by SENJsnowman Sun Feb 26, 2023 3:17 pm

Hee Haw- thanks so much for the follow up. Your season-long dedication to posting helpful and honest info has been all the more impressive considering how most of the reporting has been about why it won't snow. Tough to stay motivated, but you do it! Thanks! And SROC, that was an awesome expo- very informative and detailed, but easy peasy to read and understand!

As far as tomorrow night...for sure the Jersey Shore has a tough road to see any accumulating snowfall. Is it even possible given the set-up? Maybe not.

But, in my never-ending search for reasons to believe that it WILL in fact snow at GSP Exit 80, things are definitely still heading South and East.

From the last few posts we can see that 48 hours ago, the r/s line extended all the way up to the City- north of Brooklyn and Queens even!

February Obs & Discussions - Page 11 Rgem110


And now it's literally attacking the Ocean County line:
February Obs & Discussions - Page 11 Rgem210

And the NW corner of Ocean County got some decent love in the snowfall map that Ainnone just posted.
February Obs & Discussions - Page 11 Hrrr10

So, even given this trend, I am expecting zero. And hoping for 4-5 inches!!! Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy

SENJsnowman
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 1186
Reputation : 61
Join date : 2017-01-06
Age : 51
Location : Bayville, NJ

Back to top Go down

February Obs & Discussions - Page 11 Empty Re: February Obs & Discussions

Post by billg315 Sun Feb 26, 2023 3:20 pm

I think this is my first official Winter Weather Advisory of the year: WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM MONDAY TO 5 AM ESTTUESDAY...

* WHAT...Wet snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches.

* WHERE...In New Jersey, Hunterdon and Somerset. In Pennsylvania, Lehigh and Upper Bucks.

* WHEN...From 5 PM Monday to 5 AM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday evening commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snowfall rates could exceed one inch per hour at times Monday night. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.
billg315
billg315
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 4475
Reputation : 185
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 50
Location : Flemington, NJ

Back to top Go down

February Obs & Discussions - Page 11 Empty Re: February Obs & Discussions

Post by billg315 Sun Feb 26, 2023 3:23 pm

They are on the conservative side of this (I have my area in the 2-4” zone, so not too far off), but only if the low closes off and enhances the totals as a couple of the models are showing. If not this is probably the right call. My experience is in an uncertain situation like this the NWS starts cautious and then upgrades if the models start aligning that way tomorrow.
billg315
billg315
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 4475
Reputation : 185
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 50
Location : Flemington, NJ

heehaw453 likes this post

Back to top Go down

February Obs & Discussions - Page 11 Empty Re: February Obs & Discussions

Post by amugs Sun Feb 26, 2023 3:28 pm

Upton concurs!! Also this mostly falls in the cloak of darkness....... overnight!
February Obs & Discussions - Page 11 StormTotalSnow

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 15093
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

February Obs & Discussions - Page 11 Empty Re: February Obs & Discussions

Post by amugs Sun Feb 26, 2023 3:29 pm

Mt. Holly

February Obs & Discussions - Page 11 DF3BE154-7165-41E1-93D6-949044932571.png.ebfeb6564dc9fbb83688f29220475487

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 15093
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

February Obs & Discussions - Page 11 Empty Re: February Obs & Discussions

Post by jmanley32 Sun Feb 26, 2023 3:34 pm

I love how the models snow maps just flat out lie 24 hrs b4. Im not be a debbie downer. Im be a realist. im setting my expectations at a nice soaking cold rain 287 and south. How islip sees 3 to 5 snd nyc and surrounding areas may see a inch or two then rain is beyond me. Congrats nw folks. Why would anything change. This year has and needs to be done. If we get a inch or two with rain id rather all rain i hate slop.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 20519
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

February Obs & Discussions - Page 11 Empty Re: February Obs & Discussions

Post by amugs Sun Feb 26, 2023 3:34 pm

February Obs & Discussions - Page 11 Image.png.a5c6d770fa5e45698e4228c91f00109e

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 15093
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

February Obs & Discussions - Page 11 Empty Re: February Obs & Discussions

Post by jmanley32 Sun Feb 26, 2023 3:37 pm

amugs wrote:Upton concurs!! Also this mostly falls in the cloak of darkness....... overnight!
February Obs & Discussions - Page 11 StormTotalSnow
sorry not buying 4 to 6 imby after franks and the follow up posts. A lot of big ifs.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 20519
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

February Obs & Discussions - Page 11 Empty Re: February Obs & Discussions

Post by jmanley32 Sun Feb 26, 2023 3:38 pm

amugs wrote:February Obs & Discussions - Page 11 Image.png.a5c6d770fa5e45698e4228c91f00109e
i dont know what to think im lost ad im in orange but where i work in new rochelle 6 miles to east isnt?
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 20519
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

February Obs & Discussions - Page 11 Empty Re: February Obs & Discussions

Post by amugs Sun Feb 26, 2023 3:42 pm

jmanley32 wrote:I love how the models snow maps just flat out lie 24 hrs b4. Im not be a debbie downer. Im be a realist. im setting my expectations at a nice soaking cold rain 287 and south. How islip sees 3 to 5 snd nyc and surrounding areas may see a inch or two then rain is beyond me. Congrats nw folks. Why would anything change. This year has and needs to be done. If we get a inch or two with rain id rather all rain i hate slop.

Jon I am sorry but what scientific explanation do you have from this view other than fear of the seasonal trend? And you want this winter over? We have explained, SROC did at length in great KISS details, of how this is a complex but different set up we are seeing than we did for the past 3 months of storms which cut. Hunch? Gut feeling? Maybe NYC S sees a slop fest after a coupleof inches with sleet and then rain to end but it is coming in at night which helps as well.
And yes you are being a Debbie Downer Laughing Laughing
Upton thinks the low end of 2-3” N of Rt 80 high end 5-6”.
287 N it has low end of 4” and high end of 8”

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 15093
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

CPcantmeasuresnow and WinterColdandSnowisamyth like this post

Back to top Go down

February Obs & Discussions - Page 11 Empty Re: February Obs & Discussions

Post by jmanley32 Sun Feb 26, 2023 3:47 pm

amugs wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:I love how the models snow maps just flat out lie 24 hrs b4. Im not be a debbie downer. Im be a realist. im setting my expectations at a nice soaking cold rain 287 and south. How islip sees 3 to 5 snd nyc and surrounding areas may see a inch or two then rain is beyond me. Congrats nw folks. Why would anything change. This year has and needs to be done. If we get a inch or two with rain id rather all rain i hate slop.

Jon I am sorry but what scientific explanation do you have from this view other than fear of the seasonal trend? And you want this winter over? We have explained, SROC did at length in great KISS details, of how this is a complex but different set up we are seeing than we did for the past 3 months of storms which cut. Hunch? Gut feeling? Maybe NYC S sees a slop fest after a coupleof inches with sleet and then rain to end but it is coming in at night which helps as well.
And yes you are being a Debbie Downer  Laughing  Laughing
Upton thinks the low end of 2-3” N of Rt 80 high end 5-6”.
287 N it has low end of 4” and high end of 8”
fine ok ill just wait snd see. I dont have the scientific evidence except this years trends. Im reading some of our experts are more intrigued thsn others. But i guess makes sense cant all be on same page. Heres to hoping my nws 4 to 6 pans out. Ok back to positivity.


Last edited by jmanley32 on Sun Feb 26, 2023 3:57 pm; edited 1 time in total
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 20519
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

February Obs & Discussions - Page 11 Empty Re: February Obs & Discussions

Post by dkodgis Sun Feb 26, 2023 3:51 pm

In seven weeks the season will wrap. The weeks know many things the days do not.

Jon, I am curious. If there is some snow tomorrow night and Fri, will this be fortunate weather events for you?
dkodgis
dkodgis
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 2519
Reputation : 98
Join date : 2013-12-29

Back to top Go down

February Obs & Discussions - Page 11 Empty Re: February Obs & Discussions

Post by jmanley32 Sun Feb 26, 2023 3:51 pm

It def does help go b overnight. Its currently 45. Its gonna have snow hard to stick to roads and man did they salt here roads are white. After that debacle in i think 2017 i think they never tak8ng chsnces again. Not like they running low on supply lol
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 20519
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

February Obs & Discussions - Page 11 Empty Re: February Obs & Discussions

Post by jmanley32 Sun Feb 26, 2023 3:53 pm

dkodgis wrote:In seven weeks the season will wrap. The weeks know many things the days do not.

Jon, I am curious. If there is some snow tomorrow night and Fri, will this be fortunate weather events for you?
yes if i even see a few inches ill be happy. I realize im not in the best nor the worst spot. What i dont want is slop especially since its overnight i may not even get to see it. Lets not begin on friday yet lol. Im not even look at lr to see till tuesday. There were def some crazy runs for that one over past week.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 20519
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

February Obs & Discussions - Page 11 Empty Re: February Obs & Discussions

Post by jmanley32 Sun Feb 26, 2023 4:08 pm

Yay my first wwa 3 to 5. Im perfectly pleased if that happens.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 20519
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

February Obs & Discussions - Page 11 Empty Re: February Obs & Discussions

Post by billg315 Sun Feb 26, 2023 4:44 pm

18z GFS running. The 18z NAM actually showed a very subtle jog to the south - a nudge if you will toward the GFS and Euro. Is that the start of a trend that leads to all 3 being on the same page tomorrow? Maybe. As of now it is still the least aggressive on the southward extent of the snow accumulation, but, if it takes another jog south tonight, that would be closer to what we need.
One other thing about the NAM I've noticed the last few years. It loves sleet. That model can pump out some prodigious sleet fields. lol.
billg315
billg315
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 4475
Reputation : 185
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 50
Location : Flemington, NJ

Back to top Go down

February Obs & Discussions - Page 11 Empty Re: February Obs & Discussions

Post by billg315 Sun Feb 26, 2023 5:02 pm

Beginning of a NAM shift south toward gfs/euro? Maybe. Maybe not, but it’s a start:
12z NAM
February Obs & Discussions - Page 11 9b261a10
18z NAM:
February Obs & Discussions - Page 11 D63f6610

12z NAM:
February Obs & Discussions - Page 11 6b827710
18z NAM:
February Obs & Discussions - Page 11 7ea21410

12z NAM:
February Obs & Discussions - Page 11 0876d710
18z NAM:
February Obs & Discussions - Page 11 7c072c10

Subtle, but that’s how the gfs trend stated too.
billg315
billg315
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 4475
Reputation : 185
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 50
Location : Flemington, NJ

sroc4 and kalleg like this post

Back to top Go down

February Obs & Discussions - Page 11 Empty Re: February Obs & Discussions

Post by billg315 Sun Feb 26, 2023 5:14 pm

The fact that all of this precipitation is to fall at night after sunset and before sunrise can't be underestimated too. That helps tremendously this time of year with temps and snow accumulations
billg315
billg315
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 4475
Reputation : 185
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 50
Location : Flemington, NJ

Back to top Go down

February Obs & Discussions - Page 11 Empty Re: February Obs & Discussions

Post by billg315 Sun Feb 26, 2023 5:22 pm

Annnd if you can believe it, the 18z GFS is even a tick south of the 12z. Keeps the brunt of the heaviest snow accumulation across the same parts of NEPA, NNJ, LHV, NYC metro and LI, but actually brings measurable snow further south into SNJ as far south as parts of Ocean and Burlington Counties (maybe not quite to you SENJ Snowman, but closer!).
Also the 500mb energy now dives through Maryland and the southern Delmarva a bit south of last run and in line with Euro.
billg315
billg315
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 4475
Reputation : 185
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 50
Location : Flemington, NJ

weatherwatchermom and WinterColdandSnowisamyth like this post

Back to top Go down

February Obs & Discussions - Page 11 Empty Re: February Obs & Discussions

Post by WinterColdandSnowisamyth Sun Feb 26, 2023 5:40 pm

Still a winter storm watch in Orange County for 5-8 inches. Wonder when the warnings coming?

WinterColdandSnowisamyth

Posts : 23
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2023-02-26

Back to top Go down

February Obs & Discussions - Page 11 Empty Re: February Obs & Discussions

Post by heehaw453 Sun Feb 26, 2023 6:02 pm

We need that ULL to be robust as it approaches the coast.  That'll tug slightly north, but consolidation offsets the northward placement. I really think this needs that close off to be decent for many on this board.

heehaw453
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 3906
Reputation : 86
Join date : 2014-01-20
Location : Bedminster Township, PA Elevation 600' ASL

WinterColdandSnowisamyth likes this post

Back to top Go down

February Obs & Discussions - Page 11 Empty Re: February Obs & Discussions

Post by WinterColdandSnowisamyth Sun Feb 26, 2023 6:08 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Yay my first wwa 3 to 5. Im perfectly pleased if that happens.

I would temper my excitement if I were you. You do have to realize you are the southernmost part of that advisory area and would be more in line for the 3 inches than anything else.

WinterColdandSnowisamyth

Posts : 23
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2023-02-26

Back to top Go down

February Obs & Discussions - Page 11 Empty Re: February Obs & Discussions

Post by Frank_Wx Sun Feb 26, 2023 6:46 pm

amugs wrote:Question what models are you guys looking at that show the primary goes to far North after the 12Z run that will cause this to be a nuisance type storm for anyone N of I80? I am seeing a sl=olid 3-5". NYC and a bit South a nuisance maybe but the CAD is darn hard for the models to pick up on. Seasonal trends and FEAR of are the only two aspects that I see becasue every major model shows the press of the NAO and confluence over the NE region incerasing since Thursday aagin for I78 N. It was a HV storm that has trended a good 100 miles south since then. If that is not a trend?? I do not know what is. CMC shows what I am talking about in the GIF and the EURO has been on this for days now and all models are coming around to it...cough cpough GFS, NAM. My .02 here but the potential is exciting from what we have had fro NYC on N. Coastal plain sorry folks, the spoils of the last 20 years are put on hold. MAYBE the MARCH 3rd storm will deliver. Time will tell.

CMC from CCB 33n rain

February Obs & Discussions - Page 11 624f88d0-ce80-4301-b72b-e0762e2b4067.gif.f5eb05e397d74b0a0d03668a387ea78e

Here is your HREF that is a darn good SR model - composite of all SR models. Great starting point for this. Elevations will be doing better and their maybe a warm nose around I78 to I80 but N of their it looks to be mostly snow.

February Obs & Discussions - Page 11 Snowfall_024h_pmm_ne.f04800.png.35043c8c744904e2bb51ead8e8c4fc6c


My reference of a nuisance was purely for NYC and points S&E. Also, here is your primary and secondary lows.

February Obs & Discussions - Page 11 6b64f410

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 21305
Reputation : 328
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 32
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

February Obs & Discussions - Page 11 Empty Re: February Obs & Discussions

Post by jmanley32 Sun Feb 26, 2023 6:57 pm

WinterColdandSnowisamyth wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Yay my first wwa 3 to 5. Im perfectly pleased if that happens.

I would temper my excitement if I were you. You do have to realize you are the southernmost part of that advisory area and would be more in line for the 3 inches than anything else.
Aware, you never know, I have had it snow heavily here and rain 15 mins into the bronx. Even 3 inches is better than calling a winter with nothing, I am not exactly excited but my daughter really wants to go sledding so im hoping it'll be enough for that 3-5 is just barely enough. If not then oh well, maybe Friday something will happen but that one seems less likely. BTW welcome to the forum and love the username lol
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 20519
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

February Obs & Discussions - Page 11 Empty Re: February Obs & Discussions

Post by WinterColdandSnowisamyth Sun Feb 26, 2023 7:13 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
WinterColdandSnowisamyth wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Yay my first wwa 3 to 5. Im perfectly pleased if that happens.

I would temper my excitement if I were you. You do have to realize you are the southernmost part of that advisory area and would be more in line for the 3 inches than anything else.
Aware, you never know, I have had it snow heavily here and rain 15 mins into the bronx. Even 3 inches is better than calling a winter with nothing, I am not exactly excited but my daughter really wants to go sledding so im hoping it'll be enough for that 3-5 is just barely enough. If not then oh well, maybe Friday something will happen but that one seems less likely. BTW welcome to the forum and love the username lol

Thank you I appreciate it.

WinterColdandSnowisamyth

Posts : 23
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2023-02-26

Back to top Go down

February Obs & Discussions - Page 11 Empty Re: February Obs & Discussions

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 11 of 12 Previous  1, 2, 3 ... , 10, 11, 12  Next

Back to top


 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum