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February Obs & Discussions

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nutleyblizzard
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Post by heehaw453 Wed Feb 01, 2023 9:38 am

Snowfall for I-95 corridor has already exceeded January totals.

Rolling Eyes

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Post by amugs Wed Feb 01, 2023 1:33 pm

heehaw453 wrote:Snowfall for I-95 corridor has already exceeded January totals.

Rolling Eyes

Oh boy LOL!!

February Obs & Discussions Fn5q5gxaEAEYyZi?format=jpg&name=4096x4096

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Post by docstox12 Thu Feb 02, 2023 7:06 am

18 degrees, mostly sunny calm winds.
In this miserable winter, I see that the lows on Friday night have gone from -4, to 0 and today to 6 as per NWS,LOL.Can't even get a below zero night in February.Up into the 40's next week burning another week of winter.
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Post by Quietace Thu Feb 02, 2023 8:54 am

amugs wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:Snowfall for I-95 corridor has already exceeded January totals.

Rolling Eyes

Oh boy LOL!!

February Obs & Discussions Fn5q5gxaEAEYyZi?format=jpg&name=4096x4096
I believe the point of this post was that in the past 48 hours, some regions have seen as much snow as the prior 30 days. This interval just happened to be the month of January. In general, it referenced that overall lack of snow in the Northern Mid Atlantic and Southern New England Region so far this winter.

The image included does not have much relevance other than noting what the title states: the climatological month that features the average highest snowfall from GHCNd data over the past 30-years.
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Post by Quietace Thu Feb 02, 2023 9:01 am

Cold, and dry. 29/19. Snow is gone.

Going to have to put the inner CoCoRaHS gauge back out for the rain Sunday.
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Post by amugs Thu Feb 02, 2023 9:29 am

20* and cold. Winter cold for a change.

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Thu Feb 02, 2023 10:29 am

amugs wrote:20* and cold. Winter cold for a change.

Yes, normal temperatures for a couple of days, followed by two days of below normal, followed by weeks of way above normal again. You can't make it up, it's that nightmare you can't wake up from.
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Post by heehaw453 Thu Feb 02, 2023 12:36 pm

My feeling is a one/two more minor events for coastal plain and this season is  a wrap.  Even interior will struggle IMO for anything sig. Not the first stinker and won't be the last. Just have to look forward to getting rid of La Nina.

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Post by amugs Thu Feb 02, 2023 9:54 pm

End of Feb and March 3-5th we can see an intense storm due to a High Energy Cycle of the sun as we had in Dec 22-24th timeframe. But this time way east!!

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Post by rb924119 Fri Feb 03, 2023 12:15 am

heehaw453 wrote:My feeling is a one/two more minor events for coastal plain and this season is  a wrap.  Even interior will struggle IMO for anything sig. Not the first stinker and won't be the last. Just have to look forward to getting rid of La Nina.

La Niña itself isn’t the problem. It’s all about location, location, location Smile

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Post by weatherwatchermom Fri Feb 03, 2023 7:40 am

27* dropped 2 degrees in last hour. winds sustained at 19 nne...sounds like we are in a wind tunnel..
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Post by heehaw453 Fri Feb 03, 2023 8:05 am

rb924119 wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:My feeling is a one/two more minor events for coastal plain and this season is  a wrap.  Even interior will struggle IMO for anything sig. Not the first stinker and won't be the last. Just have to look forward to getting rid of La Nina.

La Niña itself isn’t the problem. It’s all about location, location, location Smile
You're right RB and good to see you post! The east/west based tropical forcing waves not my forte.  Going to get more educated on it, but always seems predicting that is as easy as predicting the stock market.  More often than not though, barring a few exceptional Ninas they tend to be bad news w.r.t. to snowfall south of CNE. And once they start bad it's usually very very ugly.


Last edited by heehaw453 on Fri Feb 03, 2023 8:07 am; edited 1 time in total

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Post by heehaw453 Fri Feb 03, 2023 8:07 am

Snow squall came through around 4ish this morning.  Coated ground, but not enough for measurable.  A trace it is.  

22.3 and today and particular tomorrow morning will feel like winter.

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Post by heehaw453 Fri Feb 03, 2023 8:18 am

IMBY well on track to have two single digit snowfalls in the span of 3 years.  It's probably on average about 1 in 20+ year thing in my parts.  Unreal.

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Fri Feb 03, 2023 8:19 am

16° right now.

With so little to track this winter at least hoping to get below zero tonight for the first time this winter. So far the 1° above zero Christmas Eve morning is the best I could do. Will also be interesting to see if New York City can beat their 7° low from the same morning.

After that it looks like it’s the same old you know what only a little worse. The winter that never was will continue on Sunday for the foreseeable future.
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Post by billg315 Fri Feb 03, 2023 9:51 am

What a wakeup call stepping outside this morning. Nice to be reminded what winter felt like. When it was winter.
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Post by amugs Fri Feb 03, 2023 10:21 am

Here comes the arctic hounds - woof woof!!


February Obs & Discussions Images?q=tbn:ANd9GcRhMQAqLRfF8Nr3Ji7Ip8XCk5PlPZMG0g29KA&usqp=CAU


Temps in tees in WNJ already!!


February Obs & Discussions FoDKhJZacAYytt-?format=jpg&name=small


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Post by rb924119 Fri Feb 03, 2023 10:21 am

heehaw453 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:My feeling is a one/two more minor events for coastal plain and this season is  a wrap.  Even interior will struggle IMO for anything sig. Not the first stinker and won't be the last. Just have to look forward to getting rid of La Nina.

La Niña itself isn’t the problem. It’s all about location, location, location Smile
You're right RB and good to see you post! The east/west based tropical forcing waves not my forte.  Going to get more educated on it, but always seems predicting that is as easy as predicting the stock market.  More often than not though, barring a few exceptional Ninas they tend to be bad news w.r.t. to snowfall south of CNE. And once they start bad it's usually very very ugly.

Thank you, my friend! To say that I’ve been busy would be an understatement, plus, there’s not been much to really get too excited about so far this………eternal Autumn? Early Spring? Lol although, as much as many folks probably don’t want to hear it, me thinks the last week of February (transition), all of March, and opening half of April may be quite exciting. And I mean 2018-style (if I remember correctly?). But don’t quote me on this because I really haven’t been able to do a deep dive.

Anywayyyyyyy lol I agree with you when it comes to trying to forecast ENSO states. Granted, I have never really tried in particular to forecast it at a long lead time (beyond three months, or so), but I know it’s not as “straightforward” (relatively speaking) as forecasting sensible weather even at longer lead times. Slosh mechanics and thermoclines add new levels of complexity when you start considering their relationship and evolution with and within the context of atmospheric evolution and feedback. At least when trying to forecast for an upcoming season (i.e. Spring in this case), the evolution and lag-time of the ENSO base state with respect to its atmospheric influence often makes it a lot easier (comparatively). But beyond that, it starts becoming a different game.

But yeah, obviously climatology must always be considered. But it’s a shame that this evolved into a central-based La Niña, because personally, with how the MJO has behaved, and now the monstrous Stratwarm that’s been taking place (and will re-fire), I think that this could have been a pretty epic winter if the La Niña stayed east-based. No way to know for sure, but it’s my opinion. There’s always next year (if the end of this season doesn’t produce) lol

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Post by amugs Fri Feb 03, 2023 10:49 am

Intetesting that on another board a member posted.

"in new england with the tropopause fold it's still an interesting and rare setup. The fact the stratosphere will fold and come within 1 mile above the surface of new england. Putting mt Washington temporarily in the stratosphere. Also potentially rivaling its highest recorded wind chill. Lots of debbie downers but in a complete shit winter..... you take what you can get

Weather Extremes!!!

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WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
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Post by amugs Fri Feb 03, 2023 10:56 am

rb924119 wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:My feeling is a one/two more minor events for coastal plain and this season is  a wrap.  Even interior will struggle IMO for anything sig. Not the first stinker and won't be the last. Just have to look forward to getting rid of La Nina.

La Niña itself isn’t the problem. It’s all about location, location, location Smile
You're right RB and good to see you post! The east/west based tropical forcing waves not my forte.  Going to get more educated on it, but always seems predicting that is as easy as predicting the stock market.  More often than not though, barring a few exceptional Ninas they tend to be bad news w.r.t. to snowfall south of CNE. And once they start bad it's usually very very ugly.

Thank you, my friend! To say that I’ve been busy would be an understatement, plus, there’s not been much to really get too excited about so far this………eternal Autumn? Early Spring? Lol although, as much as many folks probably don’t want to hear it, me thinks the last week of February (transition), all of March, and opening half of April may be quite exciting. And I mean 2018-style (if I remember correctly?). But don’t quote me on this because I really haven’t been able to do a deep dive.

Anywayyyyyyy lol I agree with you when it comes to trying to forecast ENSO states. Granted, I have never really tried in particular to forecast it at a long lead time (beyond three months, or so), but I know it’s not as “straightforward” (relatively speaking) as forecasting sensible weather even at longer lead times. Slosh mechanics and thermoclines add new levels of complexity when you start considering their relationship and evolution with and within the context of atmospheric evolution and feedback. At least when trying to forecast for an upcoming season (i.e. Spring in this case), the evolution and lag-time of the ENSO base state with respect to its atmospheric influence often makes it a lot easier (comparatively). But beyond that, it starts becoming a different game.

But yeah, obviously climatology must always be considered. But it’s a shame that this evolved into a central-based La Niña, because personally, with how the MJO has behaved, and now the monstrous Stratwarm that’s been taking place (and will re-fire), I think that this could have been a pretty epic winter if the La Niña stayed east-based. No way to know for sure, but it’s my opinion. There’s always next year (if the end of this season doesn’t produce) lol

RAYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY!!!!!!!!!!

Welcome back brother, we missed you and your insight!!
March 2018 redux or close thereto would be an epic turn for this awful winter. 5 straight Nor'easters with the PV sitting in Eastern Canada.

Again I will say this Feb 24-27th and March 3-5th from Jim Witt's planetary cycle predictions are to watch for an intense storminess especially the 3rd to 5th time frame!!! High energy cycle of the sun with other planets coming into play. I'll ask again at our monthly meeting next week what he thinks.

Excellent points that Dec pattern set up screamed cold n snow but the energy did not want to play nice and I am sure we'll find out the what to the why and vice versa in a month or so. Modoki Nina's suck for us ala 72-73, 73-74.

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Post by heehaw453 Fri Feb 03, 2023 11:22 am

Look at this beast.

February Obs & Discussions Gfs153

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Post by phil155 Fri Feb 03, 2023 11:51 am

amugs wrote:Intetesting that on another board a member posted.

"in new england with the tropopause fold it's still an interesting and rare setup. The fact the stratosphere will fold and come within 1 mile above the surface of new england. Putting mt Washington temporarily in the stratosphere. Also potentially rivaling its highest recorded wind chill. Lots of debbie downers but in a complete shit winter..... you take what you can get

Weather Extremes!!!

Mt Washington is amazing, I can not wait to race up it again in August, that mountain is just incredible

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Fri Feb 03, 2023 11:59 am

phil155 wrote:
amugs wrote:Intetesting that on another board a member posted.

"in new england with the tropopause fold it's still an interesting and rare setup. The fact the stratosphere will fold and come within 1 mile above the surface of new england. Putting mt Washington temporarily in the stratosphere. Also potentially rivaling its highest recorded wind chill. Lots of debbie downers but in a complete shit winter..... you take what you can get

Weather Extremes!!!

Mt Washington is amazing, I can not wait to race up it again in August, that mountain is just incredible

Such a great spot. I've been to the peak in July but next trip I want to do in October when the peak will most likely have snow.

When i went in the last week of June a few years ago there was still snow on the north side basin that never gets direct sunlight. Was a balmy 60 for a high that day which is exceptionally mild for the peak. The record high on the peak I believe is 71 or73.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Fri Feb 03, 2023 2:13 pm

Temperature on Mt. Washington right now is -34°. The sustained wind is 92mph giving a wind chill of -90°.

Before they revised the wind chill formula many years ago that would have been about a -180°.
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Post by amugs Fri Feb 03, 2023 2:32 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Temperature on Mt. Washington right now is -34°. The sustained wind is 92mph giving a wind chill of -90°.

Before they revised the wind chill formula many years ago that would have been about a -180°.
Laughing Laughing Laughing

So true it'd be -220 tonight as the wind chill is to reach -100!!

Here are our Wind Chills:

February Obs & Discussions FoECssLWYAAdyE2?format=jpg&name=4096x4096

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