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March 13th-14th "Agita" Storm Part II

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Post by rb924119 Sun Mar 12, 2023 6:42 pm

rb924119 wrote:Uhhhh heehaw……very interesting that you just brought that up. What a friggin analog lol

March 13th-14th "Agita" Storm Part II - Page 2 1ec63e10

March 13th-14th "Agita" Storm Part II - Page 2 355e6610


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Post by rb924119 Sun Mar 12, 2023 6:44 pm

I thought this setup looked familiar, but I couldn’t place it haha

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Post by rb924119 Sun Mar 12, 2023 6:51 pm

Even trippier, check out this link, set the date to March 2, select surface radar composite, and then Nee England composite and watch. EERILY SIMILAR to the hi-res models.

https://www2.mmm.ucar.edu/imagearchive/

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Post by rb924119 Sun Mar 12, 2023 6:58 pm

HMMMMMMMMM

Reanalysis of 3/2/18:

March 13th-14th "Agita" Storm Part II - Page 2 19912a10

Current H5 forecast:

March 13th-14th "Agita" Storm Part II - Page 2 B96f3d10

Interesting……


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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sun Mar 12, 2023 7:00 pm

heehaw453 wrote:@rb924119 going to chase this one in Middleton NY ~600'+ ASL.  Good locale?

Middletown is where Damian (Dkdodgis) lives Heehaw, he had six inches in the storm the other day. It’s about 15 Miles NW of where The towns Doc and I are in Docs in Monroe I’m in Highland Mills.


Last edited by CPcantmeasuresnow on Sun Mar 12, 2023 7:49 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Mar 12, 2023 7:12 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:@rb924119 going to chase this one in Middleton NY ~600'+ ASL.  Good locale?

Middletown is where Damian (Dkdodgis) lives Heehaw, he hit six inches in the storm the other day. It’s about 15 Miles NW of where The towns Doc and I are in Docs in Monroe I’m in Highland Mills.
Well my wifes job's head's are coming down tomorrow from Middletown for a training and will be leaving late in the day, hopefully they beat it back. Or maybe they won't come at all (her hope lol).
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Post by dkodgis Sun Mar 12, 2023 7:45 pm

I am 7 miles NW of Middletown. Just 2 miles from Sullivan county
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sun Mar 12, 2023 7:51 pm

I’d take a March 2018 again. We received 24 inches from that storm. It was a beauty. I don’t think that’s happening here for this one through. I’ll be happy with 10-12.
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Mar 12, 2023 8:01 pm

18z EURO is worse than 12z.

Man the EURO performed horribly with this. Big W for the GFS.

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Post by MattyICE Sun Mar 12, 2023 8:03 pm

Time for a BDB miracle reversal starting at 0z…

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Post by heehaw453 Sun Mar 12, 2023 8:09 pm

I'm going all in. Monticello will be the destination. 110 miles from my hood. 

RGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
702 PM EDT Sun Mar 12 2023

NYZ009-036-037-045-046-057-062-PAZ040-132315-
/O.CON.KBGM.WS.W.0006.230313T1800Z-230315T1200Z/
Northern Oneida-Madison-Southern Oneida-Chenango-Otsego-Delaware-
Sullivan-Northern Wayne-
Including the cities of Boonville, Hamilton, Oneida, Rome, Utica,
Norwich, Oneonta, Delhi, Walton, Monticello, Damascus,
and Equinunk
702 PM EDT Sun Mar 12 2023

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM MONDAY TO
8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 10 to
20 inches. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...In New York, Northern Oneida, Madison, Southern
Oneida, Chenango, Otsego, Delaware and Sullivan counties. In
Pennsylvania, Northern Wayne county.

* WHEN...From 2 PM Monday to 8 AM EDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The
hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening
commute. Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce
visibility Tuesday night.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Light to moderate snow moves across the
area on Monday, some rain could mix in for the valleys. The
snow then becomes heavy at times Monday evening through
Tuesday. Snowfall rates of 1 to 3 inches per hour are possible
at times. Northwest winds increase later Tuesday into Tuesday
night which may cause areas of blowing and drifting snow.
Scattered power outages are possible from a combination of the
heavy snow and gusty winds.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency.

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

The Pennsylvania Department of Transportation and Pennsylvania
Turnpike Commission strongly encourage motorist to heed all
travel restrictions and delay unnecessary travel. Visit
www.511pa.com for the latest travel, roadways, and traffic
conditions.

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Mar 12, 2023 8:09 pm

MattyICE wrote:Time for a BDB miracle reversal starting at 0z…
Ha I said this earlier.
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Post by heehaw453 Sun Mar 12, 2023 8:11 pm

I think if you're not where there is a current WSW (watch or warning) this ain't your storm.

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Post by dkodgis Sun Mar 12, 2023 8:25 pm

No warning for me. I am 23 miles away by car from Montecello

Somebody better make a few calls on my behalf
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Mar 12, 2023 8:26 pm

heehaw453 wrote:I'm going all in. Monticello will be the destination. 110 miles from my hood. 

RGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
702 PM EDT Sun Mar 12 2023

NYZ009-036-037-045-046-057-062-PAZ040-132315-
/O.CON.KBGM.WS.W.0006.230313T1800Z-230315T1200Z/
Northern Oneida-Madison-Southern Oneida-Chenango-Otsego-Delaware-
Sullivan-Northern Wayne-
Including the cities of Boonville, Hamilton, Oneida, Rome, Utica,
Norwich, Oneonta, Delhi, Walton, Monticello, Damascus,
and Equinunk
702 PM EDT Sun Mar 12 2023

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM MONDAY TO
8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 10 to
20 inches. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...In New York, Northern Oneida, Madison, Southern
Oneida, Chenango, Otsego, Delaware and Sullivan counties. In
Pennsylvania, Northern Wayne county.

* WHEN...From 2 PM Monday to 8 AM EDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The
hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening
commute. Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce
visibility Tuesday night.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Light to moderate snow moves across the
area on Monday, some rain could mix in for the valleys. The
snow then becomes heavy at times Monday evening through
Tuesday. Snowfall rates of 1 to 3 inches per hour are possible
at times. Northwest winds increase later Tuesday into Tuesday
night which may cause areas of blowing and drifting snow.
Scattered power outages are possible from a combination of the
heavy snow and gusty winds.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency.

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

The Pennsylvania Department of Transportation and Pennsylvania
Turnpike Commission strongly encourage motorist to heed all
travel restrictions and delay unnecessary travel. Visit
www.511pa.com for the latest travel, roadways, and traffic
conditions.

I think this is a good spot. Although, my feeling is “bullseye” will be east of there

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Mar 12, 2023 8:26 pm

dkodgis wrote:No warning for me. I am 23 miles away by car from Montecello

Somebody better make a few calls on my behalf
I got you beat, watch is 9 or so miles north of me.
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Post by Dunnzoo Sun Mar 12, 2023 8:33 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
dkodgis wrote:No warning for me. I am 23 miles away by car from Montecello

Somebody better make a few calls on my behalf
I got you beat, watch is 9 or so miles north of me.

Haha! I win 6 miles west of me there is a WWA, I get a hazardous weather outlook

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Snowfall winter of 2021-2022     17.6"    1" sleet 2/25/22
Snowfall winter of 2020-2021     51.1"
Snowfall winter of 2019-2020       8.5"
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Post by rb924119 Sun Mar 12, 2023 9:15 pm

If a contest to see who can be the closest to a winter weather advisory of any form without actually being in one themself doesn’t exemplify the patheticness of this……..season, then i don’t know what else would hahahaha

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Post by heehaw453 Sun Mar 12, 2023 9:22 pm

dkodgis wrote:No warning for me. I am 23 miles away by car from Montecello

Somebody better make a few calls on my behalf
What's your elevation?

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Post by heehaw453 Sun Mar 12, 2023 9:29 pm

Here is the trough and ULL. It's a decent ridge, but look how far north it is.

General room of thumb from what I have seen. You don't want that crossing that far north of Chicago for NYC area. The ridge is the only thing making it even close. Not sure it can save this for NYC on south.

March 13th-14th "Agita" Storm Part II - Page 2 Ull24

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Post by dkodgis Sun Mar 12, 2023 9:30 pm

Heehaw, about 750 ft
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Mar 12, 2023 9:31 pm

heehaw453 wrote:Here is the trough and ULL. It's a decent ridge, but look how far north it is.

General room of thumb from what I have seen. You don't want that crossing that far north of Chicago for NYC area. The ridge is the only thing making it even close. Not sure it can save this for NYC on south.

March 13th-14th "Agita" Storm Part II - Page 2 Ull24

Sad that we have the MJO in our favor yet we can get a ridge out of it 😣

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Post by heehaw453 Sun Mar 12, 2023 9:35 pm

And I go back to where the energy came ashore.  I like s/w's that come onshore around San Francisco or may a bit north of there.  I hate fighting uphill battles with ULL's.

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Post by amugs Sun Mar 12, 2023 10:13 pm

NAM improves to almost earlier 12Z runs..!!!

March 13th-14th "Agita" Storm Part II - Page 2 Namcon18
March 13th-14th "Agita" Storm Part II - Page 2 Image010

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Post by amugs Sun Mar 12, 2023 10:17 pm

Hi Tes backs it up.
Sorry buy globals can not figure out all the convection and latent heat release.  Keep riding the terrible swing in GFS, that model is notoriously bad with coastal.

March 13th-14th "Agita" Storm Part II - Page 2 Nam-2111
March 13th-14th "Agita" Storm Part II - Page 2 B672de10

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Mar 12, 2023 10:19 pm

Woah 00z NAM holds serve and is 10mb stronger 974 at 37 hrs, still gives NYC area decent snow, It just doesn't want to let go.
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Mar 12, 2023 10:22 pm

Wow, 971mb..

March 13th-14th "Agita" Storm Part II - Page 2 Ref1km11
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