March 13th-14th "Agita" Storm Part II

Woah 00z NAM holds serve and is 10mb stronger 974 at 37 hrs, still gives NYC area decent snow, It just doesn't want to let go.

Wow, 971mb..

amugs wrote:Hi Tes backs it up.
Sorry buy globals can not figure out all the convection and latent heat release.  Keep riding the terrible swing in GFS, that model is notoriously bad with coastal.

Just remember it’s not just the GFS but all of the globals against the NAM. The NAM doesn’t even have support from other hi res models. But, it would be quite something to see the EURO tonight go back to showing last nights solution.

You see the difference between the nuke run 12Z and the other stuff? The sharpness of the trough kicks start the consolidation earlier.  Allows for consolidated mid-level energy.

nuke run

Stalls for 3 hrs pluss over Cape cod at 968mb, they are going to have a crushing storm, rain and close to hurricane winds if that happens.

It's all about having enough time for maturation and consolidation. Can't do that with dilly dally.

Meso low looks stalled just south of Long Island per latest NAM. IF true, this would deliver snow into NYC 

Hi Res Models duo and winds are gonna crank
Sorry who cares about Bastaan this is a different region here. They ate gonna get crushed. This area is what we are trying to reel this in

Frank_Wx wrote:Meso low looks stalled just south of Long Island per latest NAM. IF true, this would deliver snow into NYC 

The ULL was slightly better than 18Z a bit lower and sharper. Not as good as 12Z. 12Z run is the nirvana.

Frank_Wx wrote:Meso low looks stalled just south of Long Island per latest NAM. IF true, this would deliver snow into NYC 

I just posted above frank the whole system stalls over cape cod for hrs. Even before then shows 10-15 inches IMBY, do I believe it nope. I am inclined to believe your map, it would be quite something to have to drop your snow map 100 miles south lol

Is the meso stalling because the mail LP stalls? This almost looks like a partial fujiwara.

See what the 0Z suite has to say.
Let's EURO supports this then now.

amugs wrote:Hi Res Models duo and winds are gonna crank
Sorry who cares about Bastaan this is a different region here. They ate gonna get crushed. This area is what we are trying to reel this in

Well I like cape cod excuse me, didnt say beantown. But yeah this run was wild.

Hey we can dream still.

jmanley32 wrote:Hey we can dream still.

Too bad more websites don’t offer options to look at 5:1 or 7:1 ratio outputs. I guess that is what Kuchera is supposed to do? NYC won’t have 10:1 ratios this storm.

Frank_Wx wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Hey we can dream still.

Too bad more websites don’t offer options to look at 5:1 or 7:1 ratio outputs. I guess that is what Kuchera is supposed to do? NYC won’t have 10:1 ratios this storm.

I get that, do any sites offer lower ratios? Well I can tell you I have had snow when NYC has not so there can be ever so slight cut offs, I will remember one night I was driving home from Harlem in puring rain got to yonkers heavy snow.

Still a respectable amount 6-8ish, if the kuchera is correct, about 5:1 or 7:1 as you said.

And thats IF the NAM is right, which I still am very skeptical as you all are. That line of storms coming off the ocean looks like what came off that TS we had, I wonder if we see some intense winds and lightning with that. Please something interesting lol

The 3k Nam is on crack. There is no way in hell that NYC is going to get more snow than me 20 miles north of 84. The models have been atrocious with this storm. I could see NYC metro and Long Island in the c-2 range but anything more is highly unlikely.

The beauty of being out of the running on this storm is watching the excitement grow with every passing minute. It's a bit like watching a bunch of Bingo addicts. "I'm this close on this map card. Even closer on that one. That other one is hopeless." Having said that, I'm cheering for all you. It's been a brutal winter and hopefully a lot of you can have it end on a high note.

I tell you what we are go need wind headlines if the NAM plays out seeing some sites showing gusts to 50mph and LI 55 and to the "I don't care land of MA 75-95...

I am still one letter away from a warning. Two miles away there is one.

https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/03122023_pm.pdf

Note the red area stating about the potential for more sig snow into city uncertain, seems like NWS is looking at NAM but not biting yet, is likely go be a nowcast for city and northern suburbs and NE NJ.

For what little it may be worth, I’m trying to analyze from my phone - I just got to my parents’ place in the Poconos lol I work 11am-9:30pm, in case you were wondering why so late aha

To the point, I’m telling you, DO NOT SLEEP ON THIS IF YOU ARE BETWEEN I-84 and I-78. The more I look at this, the more I see March 2, 2018. Everything is on the EXACT same trajectory. The models are trying to errantly leap frog the main energy to the eastern energy. In my opinion, this is wrong. It’s kind of like putting the cart before the proverbial horse. This storm is developing too-down, not bottom-up. H5 is maturing first, then H7, H850, and finally the surface. This is clearly evident on all models. With that being the case, it makes no sense that all of a sudden the coastal surface low, which is developing IN RESPONSE TO the maturing mid- and low-level cyclones maturing above it FIRST, would start controlling the show. Yes, it will rapidly deepen, but AFTER the cyclones are doing so above it. This evolution has a huge impact on the distribution of precipitation. If you are anywhere north of the H5 trough axis, youre in good shape. Right now, I still stand by what I said earlier. But I am trying to do some further analysis.

In my opinion, the NAM makes the most synoptic sense right now.

I wish I had my computer here so I could make a video to explain myself, but the internet here is so slow you all wouldn’t see it until after whatever is going to happen happens aha it would take until next March to render

rb924119 wrote:For what little it may be worth, I’m trying to analyze from my phone - I just got to my parents’ place in the Poconos lol I work 11am-9:30pm, in case you were wondering why so late aha

To the point, I’m telling you, DO NOT SLEEP ON THIS IF YOU ARE BETWEEN I-84 and I-78. The more I look at this, the more I see March 2, 2018. Everything is on the EXACT same trajectory. The models are trying to errantly leap frog the main energy to the eastern energy. In my opinion, this is wrong. It’s kind of like putting the cart before the proverbial horse. This storm is developing too-down, not bottom-up. H5 is maturing first, then H7, H850, and finally the surface. This is clearly evident on all models. With that being the case, it makes no sense that all of a sudden the coastal surface low, which is developing IN RESPONSE TO the maturing mid- and low-level cyclones maturing above it FIRST, would start controlling the show. Yes, it will rapidly deepen, but AFTER the cyclones are doing so above it. This evolution has a huge impact on the distribution of precipitation. If you are anywhere north of the H5 trough axis, youre in good shape. Right now, I still stand by what I said earlier. But I am trying to do some further analysis.

rb I think your going to be correct. The NWS has put my area in a WSW for 12-18 inches of snow with higher amounts possible in the higher elevations. I'm in Marshalls Creek PA. just below where your parents live.

Snowing 32 degrees, 1 inch on ground, sticking to roads and everything

SNOW MAN wrote:

rb924119 wrote:For what little it may be worth, I’m trying to analyze from my phone - I just got to my parents’ place in the Poconos lol I work 11am-9:30pm, in case you were wondering why so late aha

To the point, I’m telling you, DO NOT SLEEP ON THIS IF YOU ARE BETWEEN I-84 and I-78. The more I look at this, the more I see March 2, 2018. Everything is on the EXACT same trajectory. The models are trying to errantly leap frog the main energy to the eastern energy. In my opinion, this is wrong. It’s kind of like putting the cart before the proverbial horse. This storm is developing too-down, not bottom-up. H5 is maturing first, then H7, H850, and finally the surface. This is clearly evident on all models. With that being the case, it makes no sense that all of a sudden the coastal surface low, which is developing IN RESPONSE TO the maturing mid- and low-level cyclones maturing above it FIRST, would start controlling the show. Yes, it will rapidly deepen, but AFTER the cyclones are doing so above it. This evolution has a huge impact on the distribution of precipitation. If you are anywhere north of the H5 trough axis, youre in good shape. Right now, I still stand by what I said earlier. But I am trying to do some further analysis.

rb I think your going to be correct. The NWS has put my area in a WSW for 12-18 inches of snow with higher amounts possible in the higher elevations. I'm in Marshalls Creek PA. just below where your parents live.

Snow Man, good to see ya, brother!! Thanks for the support! I have a 50-50 shot haha

As I continue analyze this, here’s what I’m thinking:

1. We see a sharper height field out ahead of our approaching mid-level cyclone as a result of increased latent heat release from the relatively “warmer” ocean coupled with offshore convection.

2. A slightly southward displacement of the cyclonic evolution based on hemispheric and tropical forcing mechanisms. It won’t be by much, maybe 25-50 miles, but I do think it happens.

As a result of these two in things, I think we will see an overall more robust/earlier/more efficient consolidation of energies and maturation versus what is being currently modeled. Therefore, an enhancement of the forcing mechanisms in play the same ones I mentioned earlier yesterday) should be realized at game time, with a further southwestward displacement of snowfall.

36 degrees, cloudy, drizzle calm winds.Upgraded to warning here , anywhere between 4 to 12 inches, higher amounts 500 to 750 feet.I am over 500 feet.Nowcast time, any wobbles can make a difference either way .

7:01 Just checked, elevation of Monroe NY 636 feet.