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March 13th-14th "Agita" Storm Part II

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Post by lglickman1 Mon Mar 13, 2023 1:13 pm

Scullybutcher wrote:anytime people rely on backend snow and storms stalling they are usually disappointed



sroc4 wrote:
dsix85 wrote:@ Sroc-can we start to get a tad bit excited out in Manorville/Wading River?

That's my experience too. How far west will this back end snow potentially extend if it happens?
I cant get excited yet.  Its likely going to be a nowcast situation.  Will have to watch how the low and meso low all behaves and see how the back end snow bands develop and where they develop as the system matures.  

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Post by sroc4 Mon Mar 13, 2023 1:14 pm

Scullybutcher wrote:anytime people rely on backend snow and storms stalling they are usually disappointed



sroc4 wrote:
dsix85 wrote:@ Sroc-can we start to get a tad bit excited out in Manorville/Wading River?

I cant get excited yet.  Its likely going to be a nowcast situation.  Will have to watch how the low and meso low all behaves and see how the back end snow bands develop and where they develop as the system matures.  

At least there is definite blocking Scully so there there will be a maturing CCB developing and the Low will stall nd even retrograde some.  Its a matter of whether or not the southern energy is too far east or a tad closer to the coast to interact with the energy in the trough later vs sooner.  If sooner like the Nam we are in the game in Suffolk county.   If later...oogatz  I wont hold my breath, but will watch closely.

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Post by heehaw453 Mon Mar 13, 2023 1:22 pm

docstox12 wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:Anytime we see Miller B setups look to I90 corridor ALB-->Berkshires-->Worcester for jackpot. BOS only if it's cold enough which it's not. We see this time and time again.

Ugh, Miller B's, never like them.
I thought this coming storm was going to be a Miller A, but apparently, I was off on that.The March 1993 was a Miller A coming right up the coast.Too bad for my location in Mahwah NJ, it mixed with sleet and there was 17 inches, 3 inches of which on top was sleet.Out by NE PA, they had 36 inches.
Yeah doc. one could argue Miller A since there's already a storm emanating from the gulf.  I think in a truer sense since this depends so heavily on consolidation for deepening between two disparate s/w's it's more of a Miller B setup. By itself the coastal energy is benign and it's only until it meets up with trailing s/w that it starts to deepen.

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Post by billg315 Mon Mar 13, 2023 1:31 pm

heehaw453 wrote:
docstox12 wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:Anytime we see Miller B setups look to I90 corridor ALB-->Berkshires-->Worcester for jackpot. BOS only if it's cold enough which it's not. We see this time and time again.

Ugh, Miller B's, never like them.
I thought this coming storm was going to be a Miller A, but apparently, I was off on that.The March 1993 was a Miller A coming right up the coast.Too bad for my location in Mahwah NJ, it mixed with sleet and there was 17 inches, 3 inches of which on top was sleet.Out by NE PA, they had 36 inches.
Yeah doc. one could argue Miller A since there's already a storm emanating from the gulf.  I think in a truer sense since this depends so heavily on consolidation for deepening between two disparate s/w's it's more of a Miller B setup. By itself the coastal energy is benign and it's only until it meets up with trailing s/w that it starts to deepen.
So typical of this winter. We finally get a Miller A and it decides to dress up as a Miller B; and a hideous one at that.
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Post by heehaw453 Mon Mar 13, 2023 2:08 pm

euro doing this to accumulations NW.


March 13th-14th "Agita" Storm Part II - Page 6 Mev-11112073

March 13th-14th "Agita" Storm Part II - Page 6 Euro137

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Post by rb924119 Mon Mar 13, 2023 2:30 pm

Playing contrarian here, we should start to see the radar fill in now. The red line looks to me to be the back edge associated with the backing mid-level flows (H7 and H5). The yellow line is my estimation of the back edge of the precipitation being forced by the lower-levels H85 and below). The blue line is the back edge that I’m expecting to see emerge over the next several hours. Then as the whole system progresses, some northward progression of the back edge is expected, but it should pivot more than just lift up/out. Will be fun to test this.

March 13th-14th "Agita" Storm Part II - Page 6 C1291110


I’m not giving up on this. If I’m wrong then so be it. But right now, I like what I’m seeing on radar and satellite imagery.

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Post by heehaw453 Mon Mar 13, 2023 2:42 pm

rb924119 wrote:Playing contrarian here, we should start to see the radar fill in now. The red line looks to me to be the back edge associated with the backing mid-level flows (H7 and H5). The yellow line is my estimation of the back edge of the precipitation being forced by the lower-levels H85 and below). The blue line is the back edge that I’m expecting to see emerge over the next several hours. Then as the whole system progresses, some northward progression of the back edge is expected, but it should pivot more than just lift up/out. Will be fun to test this.

March 13th-14th "Agita" Storm Part II - Page 6 C1291110


I’m not giving up on this. If I’m wrong then so be it. But right now, I like what I’m seeing on radar and satellite imagery.
Still remember measuring a 20" spot in Barnegat after your call of the legendary January 2022 pattern evolution. Case study type of thing IMO. I'm heading out to Monticello in a few hours. I fully expect at least 1' after it flips to snow this evening. Just not sure about NEPA right now?

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Post by MattyICE Mon Mar 13, 2023 2:50 pm

heehaw453 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:Playing contrarian here, we should start to see the radar fill in now. The red line looks to me to be the back edge associated with the backing mid-level flows (H7 and H5). The yellow line is my estimation of the back edge of the precipitation being forced by the lower-levels H85 and below). The blue line is the back edge that I’m expecting to see emerge over the next several hours. Then as the whole system progresses, some northward progression of the back edge is expected, but it should pivot more than just lift up/out. Will be fun to test this.

[url=https://servimg.com/view/19130284/596]March 13th-14th "Agita" Storm Part II - Page 6 C1291110[/url

I’m not giving up on this. If I’m wrong then so be it. But right now, I like what I’m seeing on radar and satellite imagery.
Still remember measuring a 20" spot in Barnegat after your call of the legendary January 2022 pattern evolution. Case study type of thing IMO. I'm heading out to Monticello in a few hours. I fully expect at least 1' after it flips to snow this evening. Just not sure about NEPA right now?

I can attest to how amazing he was in I think dec 2020 when he insisted it was a Binghamton jackpot rather than just NW of 95. Sure enough models had be at 2-3x what I got and it played out exactly as he cautioned


Last edited by MattyICE on Mon Mar 13, 2023 2:51 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Mar 13, 2023 2:50 pm

Any chances for NYC area and southern westchester or are we as has been said past few hours ogatz? I see NW NJ is now in WSW, lucky. mugs that's you and dunzoo right?
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Post by docstox12 Mon Mar 13, 2023 2:51 pm

heehaw453 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:Playing contrarian here, we should start to see the radar fill in now. The red line looks to me to be the back edge associated with the backing mid-level flows (H7 and H5). The yellow line is my estimation of the back edge of the precipitation being forced by the lower-levels H85 and below). The blue line is the back edge that I’m expecting to see emerge over the next several hours. Then as the whole system progresses, some northward progression of the back edge is expected, but it should pivot more than just lift up/out. Will be fun to test this.

March 13th-14th "Agita" Storm Part II - Page 6 C1291110


I’m not giving up on this. If I’m wrong then so be it. But right now, I like what I’m seeing on radar and satellite imagery.
Still remember measuring a 20" spot in Barnegat after your call of the legendary January 2022 pattern evolution. Case study type of thing IMO. I'm heading out to Monticello in a few hours. I fully expect at least 1' after it flips to snow this evening. Just not sure about NEPA right now?

Consider Roscoe NY and the Roscoe Motel.There is also the Reynolds House as well.They should do better than Monticello and you have Raimondos, a great Italian Restaurant and the "famous" Roscoe Diner for good breakfasts.Spent many a day and night up there trout fishing the Beaverkill River.Some of the happiest times of my life up there.
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Mar 13, 2023 2:52 pm

I see on models a strip of heavy precip coming through at some pt, could that have embedded t-storms for the coast? And what are the chances we get in on that backend snow, will that be the only shot if anything at all? Honestly I am done wit this storm but am going to keep checking in to see if any nowcast miracles happen.
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Post by TheAresian Mon Mar 13, 2023 2:54 pm

The NWS has me down for a WWA, forecasted totals of 4-7. Then on Thursday and Friday, they have me down for daytime highs in the low 50s. Mother Nature has the damnedest sense of humor sometimes.

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Post by Dunnzoo Mon Mar 13, 2023 3:04 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Any chances for NYC area and southern westchester or are we as has been said past few hours ogatz? I see NW NJ is now in WSW, lucky. mugs that's you and dunzoo right?

jman, mugs and I are in NENJ, in Bergen County near the NYS border. We don't even have the hazardous weather outlook anymore

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Mar 13, 2023 3:11 pm

Dunnzoo wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Any chances for NYC area and southern westchester or are we as has been said past few hours ogatz? I see NW NJ is now in WSW, lucky. mugs that's you and dunzoo right?

jman, mugs and I are in NENJ, in Bergen County near the NYS border. We don't even have the hazardous weather outlook anymore
HWO lol, always means nada to me. Guess that means I am likely out of it too. Ho hum.
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Post by amugs Mon Mar 13, 2023 3:29 pm


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Post by SENJsnowman Mon Mar 13, 2023 3:38 pm

amugs wrote:

Hmmm…I wonder if coastal Ocean and Monmouth stand to benefit from that…it would seem so. I’d have to think that would benefit W LI and NYC immediate suburbs the most…but, we’ll see.

And is this consistent with Rbs posting earlier about the precip re-orienting?

Interesting to say the least…

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Mar 13, 2023 3:48 pm

SENJsnowman wrote:
amugs wrote:

Hmmm…I wonder if coastal Ocean and Monmouth stand to benefit from that…it would seem so. I’d have to think that would benefit W LI and NYC immediate suburbs the most…but, we’ll see.

And is this consistent with Rbs posting earlier about the precip re-orienting?  

Interesting to say the least…
Can someone explain this to me? The X will ride along the purple lines? And this will allow for some surprise snow for NYC suburbs?
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Post by SENJsnowman Mon Mar 13, 2023 3:51 pm

Jman, if I am correctly following what Tony said, it would shift the n/s axis of the wrap-around snow east by as much as 100 miles. And that would favor your latitude I think pretty well.

Any one else care to weigh in on this and correct me if I am wrong (which is obviously most likely the case anyways).

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Post by sroc4 Mon Mar 13, 2023 3:57 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
SENJsnowman wrote:
amugs wrote:

Hmmm…I wonder if coastal Ocean and Monmouth stand to benefit from that…it would seem so. I’d have to think that would benefit W LI and NYC immediate suburbs the most…but, we’ll see.

And is this consistent with Rbs posting earlier about the precip re-orienting?  

Interesting to say the least…
Can someone explain this to me? The X will ride along the purple lines? And this will allow for some surprise snow for NYC suburbs?

If it follows the theta contours I outlined with the yellow arrow it heads east like most modeling has it. If it follows the theta more northernly like he is stating then maybe surprises...and dont ask about surprises in your back yard...just surprises. It sounds like Tony is reaching to me.

March 13th-14th "Agita" Storm Part II - Page 6 Theta10



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Post by heehaw453 Mon Mar 13, 2023 4:02 pm

925's WAA one of the reasons that the surface temps are warm right now. There's really no CAD resisting it. I think it's going to take until late this evening for a lot of NW folks to flip as the ULL approaches the coast. One of the reasons this system is so elevation dependent.

March 13th-14th "Agita" Storm Part II - Page 6 925s17

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Post by docstox12 Mon Mar 13, 2023 4:03 pm

SENJsnowman wrote:Jman, if I am correctly following what Tony said, it would shift the n/s axis of the wrap-around snow east by as much as 100 miles. And that would favor your latitude I think pretty well.

Any one else care to weigh in on this and correct me if I am wrong (which is obviously most likely the case anyways).

I can't say technically SE, but these big storms can throw crazy curve balls , good or bad for an area,as they are happening so stay tuned!!!
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Mar 13, 2023 4:21 pm

sroc4 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
SENJsnowman wrote:
amugs wrote:

Hmmm…I wonder if coastal Ocean and Monmouth stand to benefit from that…it would seem so. I’d have to think that would benefit W LI and NYC immediate suburbs the most…but, we’ll see.

And is this consistent with Rbs posting earlier about the precip re-orienting?  

Interesting to say the least…
Can someone explain this to me? The X will ride along the purple lines? And this will allow for some surprise snow for NYC suburbs?

If it follows the theta contours I outlined with the yellow arrow it heads east like most modeling has it.  If it follows the theta more northernly like he is stating then maybe surprises...and dont ask about surprises in your back yard...just surprises.  It sounds like Tony is reaching to me.

March 13th-14th "Agita" Storm Part II - Page 6 Theta10


So IYBY not mine lol
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Mar 13, 2023 4:58 pm

Remember where EURO and GFS had the heaviest axis of precipitation yesterday? Here is a reminder:

March 13th-14th "Agita" Storm Part II - Page 6 Euro-precip

Now look at todays 12z EURO:

March 13th-14th "Agita" Storm Part II - Page 6 1678827600-s8-HA805-MZGU

Everything has shifted NNE. New snow map coming shortly...

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Mar 13, 2023 5:06 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Remember where EURO and GFS had the heaviest axis of precipitation yesterday? Here is a reminder:

March 13th-14th "Agita" Storm Part II - Page 6 Euro-precip

Now look at todays 12z EURO:

March 13th-14th "Agita" Storm Part II - Page 6 1678827600-s8-HA805-MZGU

Everything has shifted NNE. New snow map coming shortly...
Wow not even a half inch rain for NYC area, if it was going to be all rain I would rather very little. Thats kind of a funny little cut out there. How much can we believe the LR models at this point, what does HRRR show? I have been too busy to look at models. I know your map won't give me anything but am interested to see where its going and I think I know.
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Mar 13, 2023 5:11 pm

Boy I just cannot get anything out of this storm and no this isn't banter cuz it has info. Windadvisory up for coastal northern NJ and LI and coastal CT, not including NYC or westchester boo lol
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Post by SENJsnowman Mon Mar 13, 2023 5:13 pm

I think that NYC area cut out represents the inside of the banding arc…I think!

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Post by SENJsnowman Mon Mar 13, 2023 5:17 pm

Latest hrrr JMan? I’d rather be where you are than where I am, for sure!!

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