March 13th-14th "Agita" Storm Part II

Scullybutcher wrote:anytime people rely on backend snow and storms stalling they are usually disappointed

sroc4 wrote:

dsix85 wrote:@ Sroc-can we start to get a tad bit excited out in Manorville/Wading River?

That's my experience too. How far west will this back end snow potentially extend if it happens?
I cant get excited yet.  Its likely going to be a nowcast situation.  Will have to watch how the low and meso low all behaves and see how the back end snow bands develop and where they develop as the system matures.  

Scullybutcher wrote:anytime people rely on backend snow and storms stalling they are usually disappointed

sroc4 wrote:

dsix85 wrote:@ Sroc-can we start to get a tad bit excited out in Manorville/Wading River?

I cant get excited yet.  Its likely going to be a nowcast situation.  Will have to watch how the low and meso low all behaves and see how the back end snow bands develop and where they develop as the system matures.  

docstox12 wrote:

heehaw453 wrote:Anytime we see Miller B setups look to I90 corridor ALB-->Berkshires-->Worcester for jackpot. BOS only if it's cold enough which it's not. We see this time and time again.

Ugh, Miller B's, never like them.
I thought this coming storm was going to be a Miller A, but apparently, I was off on that.The March 1993 was a Miller A coming right up the coast.Too bad for my location in Mahwah NJ, it mixed with sleet and there was 17 inches, 3 inches of which on top was sleet.Out by NE PA, they had 36 inches.

heehaw453 wrote:

docstox12 wrote:

heehaw453 wrote:Anytime we see Miller B setups look to I90 corridor ALB-->Berkshires-->Worcester for jackpot. BOS only if it's cold enough which it's not. We see this time and time again.

Ugh, Miller B's, never like them.
I thought this coming storm was going to be a Miller A, but apparently, I was off on that.The March 1993 was a Miller A coming right up the coast.Too bad for my location in Mahwah NJ, it mixed with sleet and there was 17 inches, 3 inches of which on top was sleet.Out by NE PA, they had 36 inches.

Yeah doc. one could argue Miller A since there's already a storm emanating from the gulf.  I think in a truer sense since this depends so heavily on consolidation for deepening between two disparate s/w's it's more of a Miller B setup. By itself the coastal energy is benign and it's only until it meets up with trailing s/w that it starts to deepen.

rb924119 wrote:Playing contrarian here, we should start to see the radar fill in now. The red line looks to me to be the back edge associated with the backing mid-level flows (H7 and H5). The yellow line is my estimation of the back edge of the precipitation being forced by the lower-levels H85 and below). The blue line is the back edge that I’m expecting to see emerge over the next several hours. Then as the whole system progresses, some northward progression of the back edge is expected, but it should pivot more than just lift up/out. Will be fun to test this.




I’m not giving up on this. If I’m wrong then so be it. But right now, I like what I’m seeing on radar and satellite imagery.

heehaw453 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:Playing contrarian here, we should start to see the radar fill in now. The red line looks to me to be the back edge associated with the backing mid-level flows (H7 and H5). The yellow line is my estimation of the back edge of the precipitation being forced by the lower-levels H85 and below). The blue line is the back edge that I’m expecting to see emerge over the next several hours. Then as the whole system progresses, some northward progression of the back edge is expected, but it should pivot more than just lift up/out. Will be fun to test this.

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I’m not giving up on this. If I’m wrong then so be it. But right now, I like what I’m seeing on radar and satellite imagery.

Still remember measuring a 20" spot in Barnegat after your call of the legendary January 2022 pattern evolution. Case study type of thing IMO. I'm heading out to Monticello in a few hours. I fully expect at least 1' after it flips to snow this evening. Just not sure about NEPA right now?

heehaw453 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:Playing contrarian here, we should start to see the radar fill in now. The red line looks to me to be the back edge associated with the backing mid-level flows (H7 and H5). The yellow line is my estimation of the back edge of the precipitation being forced by the lower-levels H85 and below). The blue line is the back edge that I’m expecting to see emerge over the next several hours. Then as the whole system progresses, some northward progression of the back edge is expected, but it should pivot more than just lift up/out. Will be fun to test this.




I’m not giving up on this. If I’m wrong then so be it. But right now, I like what I’m seeing on radar and satellite imagery.

Still remember measuring a 20" spot in Barnegat after your call of the legendary January 2022 pattern evolution. Case study type of thing IMO. I'm heading out to Monticello in a few hours. I fully expect at least 1' after it flips to snow this evening. Just not sure about NEPA right now?

jmanley32 wrote:Any chances for NYC area and southern westchester or are we as has been said past few hours ogatz? I see NW NJ is now in WSW, lucky. mugs that's you and dunzoo right?

Dunnzoo wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Any chances for NYC area and southern westchester or are we as has been said past few hours ogatz? I see NW NJ is now in WSW, lucky. mugs that's you and dunzoo right?

jman, mugs and I are in NENJ, in Bergen County near the NYS border. We don't even have the hazardous weather outlook anymore

amugs wrote:

Wx Geek Post! Plot of current Theta-E advection. :point_down: It's "potential energy". Nor'Easters like Theta-E. The storm (Red X) will likely follow that path. It's a little closer to the coast than most modeling. Upstream impact? 🤨 Maybe! Stay tuned. :snowflake::steam_locomotive: pic.twitter.com/npVEfe3Lk0

— Tony Pann (@TonyPannWBAL) March 13, 2023

SENJsnowman wrote:

amugs wrote:

Wx Geek Post! Plot of current Theta-E advection. :point_down: It's "potential energy". Nor'Easters like Theta-E. The storm (Red X) will likely follow that path. It's a little closer to the coast than most modeling. Upstream impact? 🤨 Maybe! Stay tuned. :snowflake::steam_locomotive: pic.twitter.com/npVEfe3Lk0

— Tony Pann (@TonyPannWBAL) March 13, 2023

Hmmm…I wonder if coastal Ocean and Monmouth stand to benefit from that…it would seem so. I’d have to think that would benefit W LI and NYC immediate suburbs the most…but, we’ll see.

And is this consistent with Rbs posting earlier about the precip re-orienting?  

Interesting to say the least…

jmanley32 wrote:

SENJsnowman wrote:

amugs wrote:

Wx Geek Post! Plot of current Theta-E advection. :point_down: It's "potential energy". Nor'Easters like Theta-E. The storm (Red X) will likely follow that path. It's a little closer to the coast than most modeling. Upstream impact? 🤨 Maybe! Stay tuned. :snowflake::steam_locomotive: pic.twitter.com/npVEfe3Lk0

— Tony Pann (@TonyPannWBAL) March 13, 2023

Hmmm…I wonder if coastal Ocean and Monmouth stand to benefit from that…it would seem so. I’d have to think that would benefit W LI and NYC immediate suburbs the most…but, we’ll see.

And is this consistent with Rbs posting earlier about the precip re-orienting?  

Interesting to say the least…

Can someone explain this to me? The X will ride along the purple lines? And this will allow for some surprise snow for NYC suburbs?

SENJsnowman wrote:Jman, if I am correctly following what Tony said, it would shift the n/s axis of the wrap-around snow east by as much as 100 miles. And that would favor your latitude I think pretty well.

Any one else care to weigh in on this and correct me if I am wrong (which is obviously most likely the case anyways).

sroc4 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

SENJsnowman wrote:

amugs wrote:

Wx Geek Post! Plot of current Theta-E advection. :point_down: It's "potential energy". Nor'Easters like Theta-E. The storm (Red X) will likely follow that path. It's a little closer to the coast than most modeling. Upstream impact? 🤨 Maybe! Stay tuned. :snowflake::steam_locomotive: pic.twitter.com/npVEfe3Lk0

— Tony Pann (@TonyPannWBAL) March 13, 2023

Hmmm…I wonder if coastal Ocean and Monmouth stand to benefit from that…it would seem so. I’d have to think that would benefit W LI and NYC immediate suburbs the most…but, we’ll see.

And is this consistent with Rbs posting earlier about the precip re-orienting?  

Interesting to say the least…

Can someone explain this to me? The X will ride along the purple lines? And this will allow for some surprise snow for NYC suburbs?

If it follows the theta contours I outlined with the yellow arrow it heads east like most modeling has it.  If it follows the theta more northernly like he is stating then maybe surprises...and dont ask about surprises in your back yard...just surprises.  It sounds like Tony is reaching to me.

Frank_Wx wrote:Remember where EURO and GFS had the heaviest axis of precipitation yesterday? Here is a reminder:



Now look at todays 12z EURO:



Everything has shifted NNE. New snow map coming shortly...