Re: March 13th-14th "Agita" Storm Part II

by **rb924119** Mon Mar 13, 2023 4:44 am

SNOW MAN wrote:
rb924119 wrote:For what little it may be worth, I’m trying to analyze from my phone - I just got to my parents’ place in the Poconos lol I work 11am-9:30pm, in case you were wondering why so late aha

To the point, I’m telling you, DO NOT SLEEP ON THIS IF YOU ARE BETWEEN I-84 and I-78. The more I look at this, the more I see March 2, 2018. Everything is on the EXACT same trajectory. The models are trying to errantly leap frog the main energy to the eastern energy. In my opinion, this is wrong. It’s kind of like putting the cart before the proverbial horse. This storm is developing too-down, not bottom-up. H5 is maturing first, then H7, H850, and finally the surface. This is clearly evident on all models. With that being the case, it makes no sense that all of a sudden the coastal surface low, which is developing IN RESPONSE TO the maturing mid- and low-level cyclones maturing above it FIRST, would start controlling the show. Yes, it will rapidly deepen, but AFTER the cyclones are doing so above it. This evolution has a huge impact on the distribution of precipitation. If you are anywhere north of the H5 trough axis, youre in good shape. Right now, I still stand by what I said earlier. But I am trying to do some further analysis.

rb I think your going to be correct. The NWS has put my area in a WSW for 12-18 inches of snow with higher amounts possible in the higher elevations. I'm in Marshalls Creek PA. just below where your parents live.

Snow Man, good to see ya, brother!! Thanks for the support! I have a 50-50 shot haha

As I continue analyze this, here’s what I’m thinking:

1. We see a sharper height field out ahead of our approaching mid-level cyclone as a result of increased latent heat release from the relatively “warmer” ocean coupled with offshore convection.

2. A slightly southward displacement of the cyclonic evolution based on hemispheric and tropical forcing mechanisms. It won’t be by much, maybe 25-50 miles, but I do think it happens.

As a result of these two in things, I think we will see an overall more robust/earlier/more efficient consolidation of energies and maturation versus what is being currently modeled. Therefore, an enhancement of the forcing mechanisms in play the same ones I mentioned earlier yesterday) should be realized at game time, with a further southwestward displacement of snowfall.

by **docstox12** Mon Mar 13, 2023 6:29 am

36 degrees, cloudy, drizzle calm winds.Upgraded to warning here , anywhere between 4 to 12 inches, higher amounts 500 to 750 feet.I am over 500 feet.Nowcast time, any wobbles can make a difference either way .

7:01 Just checked, elevation of Monroe NY 636 feet.

by **MattyICE** Mon Mar 13, 2023 6:33 am

Well, going to bed last night, most of us were hanging onto the NAM(s) - but even that left us. Now all we have is luck and RB! See if we can go down swinging this winter!

by **phil155** Mon Mar 13, 2023 6:37 am

Luck and rb are better than the models in my opinion. How many times have the models let us down after building us up a few days before an event

by **Radz** Mon Mar 13, 2023 6:37 am

37* light rain, looking at latest guidance, I don’t think I’ll see more than a slushy 1-2” at most here in the valley of northern most Westchester, see how things develop today, would love an upside surprise…

by **jmanley32** Mon Mar 13, 2023 7:06 am

I see the coast lost nam support if we get a earlier maturation as he said is our only hope but pretty sure the ciast is toast except for flooding rains and some gusty winds.

by **jmanley32** Mon Mar 13, 2023 7:08 am

Radz wrote:37* light rain, looking at latest guidance, I don’t think I’ll see more than a slushy 1-2” at most here in the valley of northern most Westchester, see how things develop today, would love an upside surprise…

last i checked you guts had watch for 4 to 7. Ill be lucky to see a ciating to 2.

Oh did not see you were downgraded to a advisory, yeah this is all goingto be well north and the highest will be catskills and berkshires and MA. They will also see high wind warning criteria, lucky them they go have hell of a storm.

heehaw if I were you I would go to central eastern mass but I know you all don't like mass but its go be wild there.

by **dkodgis** Mon Mar 13, 2023 7:26 am

The board has come alive. How nice.

It looks like my totals per NWS are modest-5-8 inches and the action has shifted east but then again, I want to believe I will be snowbombed so the only convincing now I need is to get that snow on the ground and improve my measuring techniques gracias a CP

by **heehaw453** Mon Mar 13, 2023 7:28 am

I don't think this is going to work out for NYC/EPA and possibly NEPA. My thoughts are this ULL closes off too fast thereby brining it too far north. This close off is telling me the energy doesn't consolidate with the offshore energy until its too late. It will catch up but it'll be for Berskshires in Western MA. NW NJ/LHV you'll get yours just don't think it's widespread Godzilla amounts.

March 13th-14th "Agita" Storm Part II - Page 4 Rbs10

by **heehaw453** Mon Mar 13, 2023 7:28 am

dkodgis wrote:The board has come alive. How nice.

It looks like my totals per NWS are modest-5-8 inches and the action has shifted east but then again, I want to believe I will be snowbombed so the only convincing now I need is to get that snow on the ground and improve my measuring techniques gracias a CP

Damian see my post as to why.

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Mar 13, 2023 7:31 am

NAM lost the meso low last night. We now have model consensus, though I can see why Ray feels they are lost. We’ll just have to wait and see.

Central NY and southern NE are going to get slammed with some pretty wet snow. Could be a dangerous situation in some parts. I’ll have an updated snow map this afternoon.

by **heehaw453** Mon Mar 13, 2023 7:38 am

jmanley32 wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:I don't think this is going to work out for NYC/EPA and possibly NEPA. My thoughts are this ULL closes off too fast thereby brining it too far north. This close off is telling me the energy doesn't consolidate with the offshore energy until its too late. It will catch up but it'll be for Berskshires in Western MA. NW NJ/LHV you'll get yours just don't think it's widespread Godzilla amounts.

Headed to work just a normal rainy day in Yonkers, looks like my year end is 4.5 inches, beating out the previous lowest. At this point I have accepted it and am moving on. And it does look like you are right heehaw most has shifted to bershires and further east. Bummer even for those in upper NY.

Yeah. I won't be surprised if Central Park records nothing from this and they are .6" away from epic futility, but IMO that's already been achieved. Had the temps been cold then definitely several inches were on the table with or w/out the dynamics.

by **heehaw453** Mon Mar 13, 2023 7:42 am

SNOW MAN wrote:
rb924119 wrote:For what little it may be worth, I’m trying to analyze from my phone - I just got to my parents’ place in the Poconos lol I work 11am-9:30pm, in case you were wondering why so late aha

To the point, I’m telling you, DO NOT SLEEP ON THIS IF YOU ARE BETWEEN I-84 and I-78. The more I look at this, the more I see March 2, 2018. Everything is on the EXACT same trajectory. The models are trying to errantly leap frog the main energy to the eastern energy. In my opinion, this is wrong. It’s kind of like putting the cart before the proverbial horse. This storm is developing too-down, not bottom-up. H5 is maturing first, then H7, H850, and finally the surface. This is clearly evident on all models. With that being the case, it makes no sense that all of a sudden the coastal surface low, which is developing IN RESPONSE TO the maturing mid- and low-level cyclones maturing above it FIRST, would start controlling the show. Yes, it will rapidly deepen, but AFTER the cyclones are doing so above it. This evolution has a huge impact on the distribution of precipitation. If you are anywhere north of the H5 trough axis, youre in good shape. Right now, I still stand by what I said earlier. But I am trying to do some further analysis.

rb I think your going to be correct. The NWS has put my area in a WSW for 12-18 inches of snow with higher amounts possible in the higher elevations. I'm in Marshalls Creek PA. just below where your parents live.

I think most of your snow comes before midnight tonight. I'll be shocked if Poconos areas picks up anywhere close to 1'.

edit: outside of > 1500' ASL

by **Radz** Mon Mar 13, 2023 7:44 am

jmanley32 wrote:
Radz wrote:37* light rain, looking at latest guidance, I don’t think I’ll see more than a slushy 1-2” at most here in the valley of northern most Westchester, see how things develop today, would love an upside surprise…
last i checked you guts had watch for 4 to 7. Ill be lucky to see a ciating to 2.

Oh did not see you were downgraded to a advisory, yeah this is all goingto be well north and the highest will be catskills and berkshires and MA. They will also see high wind warning criteria, lucky them they go have hell of a storm.

heehaw if I were you I would go to central eastern mass but I know you all don't like mass but its go be wild there.

Yup, and I’m right in that downslope area that usually under performs while the “hills” west of me will accumulate some snow lol

by **rb924119** Mon Mar 13, 2023 7:50 am

heehaw453 wrote:
SNOW MAN wrote:
rb924119 wrote:For what little it may be worth, I’m trying to analyze from my phone - I just got to my parents’ place in the Poconos lol I work 11am-9:30pm, in case you were wondering why so late aha

To the point, I’m telling you, DO NOT SLEEP ON THIS IF YOU ARE BETWEEN I-84 and I-78. The more I look at this, the more I see March 2, 2018. Everything is on the EXACT same trajectory. The models are trying to errantly leap frog the main energy to the eastern energy. In my opinion, this is wrong. It’s kind of like putting the cart before the proverbial horse. This storm is developing too-down, not bottom-up. H5 is maturing first, then H7, H850, and finally the surface. This is clearly evident on all models. With that being the case, it makes no sense that all of a sudden the coastal surface low, which is developing IN RESPONSE TO the maturing mid- and low-level cyclones maturing above it FIRST, would start controlling the show. Yes, it will rapidly deepen, but AFTER the cyclones are doing so above it. This evolution has a huge impact on the distribution of precipitation. If you are anywhere north of the H5 trough axis, youre in good shape. Right now, I still stand by what I said earlier. But I am trying to do some further analysis.

rb I think your going to be correct. The NWS has put my area in a WSW for 12-18 inches of snow with higher amounts possible in the higher elevations. I'm in Marshalls Creek PA. just below where your parents live.

I think most of your snow comes before midnight tonight. I'll be shocked if Poconos areas picks up anywhere close to 1'.

Challenge accepted Wink

hahaha

by **heehaw453** Mon Mar 13, 2023 8:00 am

rb924119 wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:
SNOW MAN wrote:
rb924119 wrote:For what little it may be worth, I’m trying to analyze from my phone - I just got to my parents’ place in the Poconos lol I work 11am-9:30pm, in case you were wondering why so late aha

To the point, I’m telling you, DO NOT SLEEP ON THIS IF YOU ARE BETWEEN I-84 and I-78. The more I look at this, the more I see March 2, 2018. Everything is on the EXACT same trajectory. The models are trying to errantly leap frog the main energy to the eastern energy. In my opinion, this is wrong. It’s kind of like putting the cart before the proverbial horse. This storm is developing too-down, not bottom-up. H5 is maturing first, then H7, H850, and finally the surface. This is clearly evident on all models. With that being the case, it makes no sense that all of a sudden the coastal surface low, which is developing IN RESPONSE TO the maturing mid- and low-level cyclones maturing above it FIRST, would start controlling the show. Yes, it will rapidly deepen, but AFTER the cyclones are doing so above it. This evolution has a huge impact on the distribution of precipitation. If you are anywhere north of the H5 trough axis, youre in good shape. Right now, I still stand by what I said earlier. But I am trying to do some further analysis.

rb I think your going to be correct. The NWS has put my area in a WSW for 12-18 inches of snow with higher amounts possible in the higher elevations. I'm in Marshalls Creek PA. just below where your parents live.

I think most of your snow comes before midnight tonight. I'll be shocked if Poconos areas picks up anywhere close to 1'.

Challenge accepted hahaha

Let's do this Rb! I think that those accumulations in Poconos would be for > 1500' ASL. A lot of that area is < 1000' especially around Stroudsburg. I could see Tobyhanna area getting a 1' and that's where I was for March 2, 2018. It was beautiful watching snow rip off the lake. You think the lower elevated areas in NEPA get a 1'?

edit: This area here maybe a 1'. Outside of that I don't think so.

March 13th-14th "Agita" Storm Part II - Page 4 Pocono10

by **sroc4** Mon Mar 13, 2023 8:05 am

Morning. I've been quiet mostly because since my area has gone to she-ITE, Ive lost some interest and figure id watch a row back with the headset on and the clipboard. Bernie with regards to the NAM yesterday I think said it best. Uncle NAM has def been sipping on the Bourbons, but maybe just maybe there is some brilliance amidst the slurring. LOL What a Face

Back to the head set and clip board.

https://twitter.com/AccuRayno/status/1635001835873521664?cxt=HHwWgMDSpbrg2LAtAAAA

by **rb924119** Mon Mar 13, 2023 8:25 am

I think anywhere near and above 1000 feet would have a chance at double-digit snowfall here in NEPA. I’m currently at about 1750’ where I am, and Tobyhanna sits right around 1900’, on average. So, for sake of argument, let’s call Stroudsburg a push, heehaw, since they’re borderline.

For reference, I think anywhere in the Glaciated Low Plateau and Pocono Plateau sections of this map are solidly in the running for double digits.

March 13th-14th "Agita" Storm Part II - Page 4 C48e5a10

by **rb924119** Mon Mar 13, 2023 8:29 am

sroc4 wrote:Morning. I've been quiet mostly because since my area has gone to she-ITE, Ive lost some interest and figure id watch a row back with the headset on and the clipboard. Bernie with regards to the NAM yesterday I think said it best. Uncle NAM has def been sipping on the Bourbons, but maybe just maybe there is some brilliance amidst the slurring. LOL Back to the head set and clip board.

https://twitter.com/AccuRayno/status/1635001835873521664?cxt=HHwWgMDSpbrg2LAtAAAA

I’ve been wondering where you’ve been!

I guess I’m in good company with the NAM, then, minus the bourbon lol

by **heehaw453** Mon Mar 13, 2023 8:34 am

rb924119 wrote:I think anywhere near and above 1000 feet would have a chance at double-digit snowfall here in NEPA. I’m currently at about 1750’ where I am, and Tobyhanna sits right around 1900’, on average. So, for sake of argument, let’s call Stroudsburg a push, heehaw, since they’re borderline.

For reference, I think anywhere in the Glaciated Low Plateau and Pocono Plateau sections of this map are solidly in the running for double digits.

>= 1000' ASL --> 1' and >= 1500' --> 15" would be my call. I'm not going to be surprised for the areas under say 700' be in the 6-8" range in NEPA.

by **jmanley32** Mon Mar 13, 2023 8:39 am

Saw a highway sign all trailors and tandems banned from berkshires today thrpugh wed. Gonna have some delivery delays up there. Also ive never seen that.

by kalleg Mon Mar 13, 2023 8:40 am

37* light rain in New Hope.
NWS: Today Rain. High near 44. East wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Tonight Rain. Low around 33. Northwest wind 5 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between three quarters and one inch possible.

If only all that rain could be snow....sigh....

by **rb924119** Mon Mar 13, 2023 8:43 am

heehaw453 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:I think anywhere near and above 1000 feet would have a chance at double-digit snowfall here in NEPA. I’m currently at about 1750’ where I am, and Tobyhanna sits right around 1900’, on average. So, for sake of argument, let’s call Stroudsburg a push, heehaw, since they’re borderline.

For reference, I think anywhere in the Glaciated Low Plateau and Pocono Plateau sections of this map are solidly in the running for double digits.

>= 1000' ASL --> 1' and >= 1500' --> 15" would be my call. I'm not going to be surprised for the areas under say 700' be in the 6-8" range in NEPA.

Then we aren’t really any different from each other after all haha it’s a moot point lol sure, we could nitpick over a couple inches, but I think we are largely on the same page. Smile

by **heehaw453** Mon Mar 13, 2023 8:48 am

Latest Euro 06Z snowfall 10:1 map as the ULL continues to be placed further north.

March 13th-14th "Agita" Storm Part II - Page 4 Eurone10

by **docstox12** Mon Mar 13, 2023 8:56 am

heehaw453 wrote:Latest Euro 06Z snowfall 10:1 map as the ULL continues to be placed further north.

Puts me near ten inches ,where do I sign?

by **rb924119** Mon Mar 13, 2023 9:04 am

The atmospheric streamflow is already beginning to reorient itself, as can be seen by the development of parallel banding features and their subsequent motion on radar.

March 13th-14th "Agita" Storm Part II - Page 4 20c1dc10

This is why the precip field is filling on radar - you’re beginning to see the atmosphere “spread apart” in response to the forcing mechanisms in play creating forcing for ascent. Strictly anecdotally, whenever I’ve seen precipitation falling well in advance of a storm, it’s always boded well. At least in my recent working memory, which admittedly, is not all that long haha

by **SENJsnowman** Mon Mar 13, 2023 9:07 am

docstox12 wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:Latest Euro 06Z snowfall 10:1 map as the ULL continues to be placed further north.

Puts me near ten inches ,where do I sign?

And it puts me near/at one inch. Oh well, where did you put the pen Doc?

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