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July 2023 Observations and Discussion

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Zhukov1945
jmanley32
Dunnzoo
weatherwatchermom
frank 638
rb924119
dkodgis
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docstox12
kalleg
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July 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 4 Empty Re: July 2023 Observations and Discussion

Post by docstox12 Sun Jul 16, 2023 6:03 am

Woke up to something new and different at 5:40 am-------a T Storm!
72 degrees ,heavy rain. Multiple warnings up here.Soutwest of me a bit is a tornado warning! At this juncture, an eyedropper full of water will cause flash flooding.Be careful, anybody coming up here.Thankfully,thank the Good Lord,yesterday was a nice day, my Sister and two nephews,one with his wife, visited.My one nephew took his usual route, the Palisades Parkway exiting on the 7 Lakes Drive traffic circle, but that area of the Palisades Parkway was still closed from the flooding last week.He was re routed to get to Monroe.

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Jul 16, 2023 8:58 am

Amazing how sputhern westchester and nyc always seem.to stay out of any exciting weather. Looks like its over except for LI snd CT. Dunno why a tornado watch was just issued for westchester the line has moved east. Did it even rain here i just woke up. LI is getting pummeled up to 7 inches+ with the training storms off the atlantic. Major flooding in Philly 3 dead, this is all so nots all this rain, I do see that future cast has the area filling in from west so it is not close to over.

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Post by dkodgis Sun Jul 16, 2023 10:23 am

I was in bed so I missed the heavy rain; the rain gauge shows 3 inches! My university-student son had a few mates over last night and as near 20 somethings, they were out on the deck kicking it. The rain did not seem to bother them. Goofballs. Ah to be young again. However, judging from the look of things...they are paying dearly this morning.

The curtain drains have water steadily draining out of them as does the foundation drain. The stream is finally up and pooling. I think with more rain today, I do not see how we can avoid flooding in some areas. I hope anyone blasted by the last week's rainfall is getting a reprieve.
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Post by frank 638 Sun Jul 16, 2023 11:40 am

Sun is trying to come out before more rounds of heavy rains and thunderstorms ⛈.it’s so humid I never remember seeing this amount of weeks of humidity

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Post by kalleg Sun Jul 16, 2023 12:05 pm

Flash floods in southern Bucks County swept cars off the road when up to 7 inches of rain fell in less than an hour; three people drowned, four are missing:

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2023/07/16/bucks-county-flooding-pennsylvania-upper-makefield/70417889007/

https://www.phillyburbs.com/story/news/local/2023/07/16/upper-makefield-delaware-river-flooding-fatal-bucks-county/70417523007/

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Post by essexcountypete Sun Jul 16, 2023 12:12 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
essexcountypete wrote:Mammatus clouds?
July 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 4 Img_2015
July 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 4 Img_2016
I saw those the other day creepy clouds but cool too. Do they suggest heavy rain? Why and what forms them like that?

I've only seen them after a storm. They form under anvil clouds. This link suggests they come from pockets of cold air dropping...
https://www.ksat.com/weather/2023/06/20/bubbly-mammatus-clouds-explained/
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Post by frank 638 Sun Jul 16, 2023 12:41 pm

Pouring like crazy over here

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Post by dkodgis Sun Jul 16, 2023 12:49 pm

The security cameras show the rain started at 3:10 am and ended before 5:30 am. So a two-hour rain of three inches. I’ve got water streaming on top of the ground coming down a four foot hill
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Post by GreyBeard Sun Jul 16, 2023 1:50 pm

What radar sites do you folks find reliable? the ones linked at the top of the page either are inaccurate or don't work at all.
1-Accuweather-shows it raining but it isn't
2NWS northeast regional,link is dead
3NWS NYC Metro,link dead
4wunderground shows a date of march 2 2022
5 UW-Madison Eastern U.S.,dead link
6 COD Meteorology NYC Metro-false readings
7Meteocentre Northeast Regional-only one close to working

Guess nobody monitors this area of the forum. Do you guys use phone apps to check radar for your area?
Weather Channel keeps blasting out warning for flash flood for my area but it isn't even raining. Western Long Island has been on the short end of the stick rain-wise, most activity seems to always be north and west, or out east. Right now, sun is out by me. scratch

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Jul 16, 2023 2:29 pm

frank 638 wrote:Pouring like crazy over here
Really? Not here just basically light rain (zzzz boring, said training t-storms, never had one thunderstorm) and the sun has now come out, flash flood warning went up (still active till 4) for why I have no clue I saw no signs of any flooding. Odd that my phone no longer goes off for flash flood warnings does anyone know why? Does Emergency system no longer do such? Highest rainfall total for area was in LI short of 5 inches, nothing to write home about, this was luckily way over exaggerated event). I guess better safe than sorry, PA was not so lucky I see but that was very localized to one small area. Seems over now. No tornadoes either or even warnings so that watch appears it was unnecessary too.
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Jul 16, 2023 2:30 pm

GreyBeard wrote:What radar sites do you folks find reliable? the ones linked at the top of the page either are inaccurate or don't work at all.
1-Accuweather-shows it raining but it isn't
2NWS northeast regional,link is dead
3NWS NYC Metro,link dead
4wunderground shows a date of march 2 2022
5 UW-Madison Eastern U.S.,dead link
6 COD Meteorology NYC Metro-false readings
7Meteocentre Northeast Regional-only one close to working

Guess nobody monitors this area of the forum. Do you guys use phone apps to check radar for your area?
Weather Channel keeps blasting out warning for flash flood for my area but it isn't even raining. Western Long Island has been on the short end of the stick rain-wise, most activity seems to always be north and west, or out east. Right now, sun is out by me. scratch
Same here as I said below this was all pretty much unecessary.
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Jul 16, 2023 4:03 pm

The rain training from eastern LI into CT, RI and MA is unreal, multiple major flash flood reports with some areas seeing 6+ so far with several more possible. I would not be surprised to see some totals near a foot when all is said and done.
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Post by Dunnzoo Mon Jul 17, 2023 9:03 pm

GreyBeard wrote:What radar sites do you folks find reliable? the ones linked at the top of the page either are inaccurate or don't work at all.
1-Accuweather-shows it raining but it isn't
2NWS northeast regional,link is dead
3NWS NYC Metro,link dead
4wunderground shows a date of march 2 2022
5 UW-Madison Eastern U.S.,dead link
6 COD Meteorology NYC Metro-false readings
7Meteocentre Northeast Regional-only one close to working

Guess nobody monitors this area of the forum. Do you guys use phone apps to check radar for your area?
Weather Channel keeps blasting out warning for flash flood for my area but it isn't even raining. Western Long Island has been on the short end of the stick rain-wise, most activity seems to always be north and west, or out east. Right now, sun is out by me. scratch


I have the radarscope app that I like. It has different layers, like watches & warnings, different reflectivity, lightning and storm cell direction. The basic version is free I think, I paid a little bit for it as I am the Deputy OEM Coordinator for my town and need a good radar to watch where the heaviest rains are since we are prone to flooding from upstream in the Hudson Valley.

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Snowfall winter of 2023-2024  17.5"    

Snowfall winter of 2022-2023       6.0"
Snowfall winter of 2021-2022     17.6"    1" sleet 2/25/22
Snowfall winter of 2020-2021     51.1"
Snowfall winter of 2019-2020       8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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July 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 4 Empty Re: July 2023 Observations and Discussion

Post by sroc4 Tue Jul 18, 2023 7:07 am

I too use radar scope. I pay for the pro level though. It has a bunch of cool features as Janet says.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=local-New_Jersey-comp_radar-24-1-100-1&checked=map-ww&colorbar=undefined

https://www.wunderground.com/maps/radar/current

https://www.wunderground.com/maps/radar/current/hfd

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
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Post by GreyBeard Tue Jul 18, 2023 10:01 am

I did find a site that I had bookmarked that I liked in wintertime because it clearly showed what was actually falling be it rain, sleet or snow, as well as the intensity it was falling at.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/WXTYPE/loop25ne.html

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Post by amugs Tue Jul 18, 2023 4:31 pm

July 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 4 Inxr1Kphla_h
Training over NYC

Incoming for me and Zoo again

7.34" for the month

.55 from the morning storms

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WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by weatherwatchermom Tue Jul 18, 2023 6:53 pm

What a crazy couple of hours!!
2.25 inches of rain in a couple of hours....it was insane.heard seaside might have had a tornado?
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Post by dkodgis Tue Jul 18, 2023 7:38 pm

It was the same deal here a couple of days ago. A couple of inches in two hrs from very intense rain. And early Sun morning, almost three inches in a couple of hrs. My drains are moving water from around the house like nobody’s business
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Post by dkodgis Tue Jul 18, 2023 7:49 pm

And now st 7:45 pm, a cloudburst. Very heavy rain, wind gusts, lightning, thunder
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Jul 18, 2023 7:52 pm

Brief rain showers in new rochelle, ny at work today, that was it.
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Post by dkodgis Thu Jul 20, 2023 6:04 pm

Well ... does anyone have an estimate on the Hudson Valley area rainfall that is coming? Another 5 inches?
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Post by billg315 Fri Jul 21, 2023 3:25 am

Looks like a line of strong to severe storms rolling in from PA. Should be some more heavy rain with these and with everything already saturated I’d suspect some more flooding. Also looks to catch the early part of AM rush hour for some folks to the east.
July 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 4 Img_2611
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Post by rb924119 Fri Jul 21, 2023 5:17 am

I know we are in the middle of Summer, and Winter is about as far as possible from everybody’s mind, but I am REALLY, *REALLY* starting to like what I’m seeing evolve in real time. I’m not one to really hype things unless I see a reason to, especially with something that I’m not too skilled with like seasonal forecasting………buttttttttt I’m growing increasingly excited and confident that we will, at the very least, have our shot at something pretty spectacular this year. Whether or not we can run the table is something that I’m not sure of yet, but I think we have a serious chance to challenge Novembers of ‘89 and ‘14, and December ‘89 this year based on some of the early, real-time data and medium-range guidance.

In case you don’t remember, here’s what they looked like:

November:

July 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 4 Img_1713
July 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 4 Img_1712
July 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 4 Img_1717

July 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 4 Img_1714

December:

July 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 4 Img_1716
July 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 4 Img_1715

I realize the extremity of this opinion, but those of you who know me understand that I’m not afraid to voice my opinion when I feel strongly enough about it. And right now, I think we could be setting up for Winter to start with quite a bang.

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Post by amugs Sun Jul 23, 2023 4:26 pm

I had a moderate dew on my lawn the past two mornings!! I usually do not start to get this until mid - latish 3rd week of August!!

Anyone see Dr. Ryan Maue write up on Hunga Tonga Volcanic Eruption?? The new estimates are 150 Trullion gallons of salt water vapor was discharges 34 miles up into the Mesopshere during that eruption in hours.  What does this equate to.....Lakes Erie and George being evaporated in a few hours.

Why is so humid and so much rain.......signs point to this, wildfires and Kamchatka 60-72k foot eruptions back in April, early  May.
All cause cloud nucleation. Get ready much more of this to come peeps.

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WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by dkodgis Tue Jul 25, 2023 8:01 am

Seattle has had much less rain this year

https://www.king5.com/article/weather/seattle-six-inch-rain-deficit-after-dry-warm-may/281-e486d9b0-b376-4aa1-bc7e-284b91df22ca

I know it is not supposed to rain everywhere the same all the time but here in the Hudson Valley for example, charting the data shows much more rain in the last decade. And then there is the eruption. Mugs, here I can' cut the grass until 1-2 pm or later because it seems every morning the grass is soaked from dew. I have to wear mud ducks to walk on it. Never dry in the morning.
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Post by billg315 Tue Jul 25, 2023 3:58 pm

Had a severe thunderstorm roll through here between 2 and 3 p.m. Heavy rain and pretty strong winds. Has moved east into the NYC metro area although doesn't look as intense on the radar now as it did when it passed here.
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Post by amugs Tue Jul 25, 2023 5:25 pm

Torrential rains pocked up .75" from tstorms. Not severe.

@Damian moderate dew here all weekend as well. NEVER have I experienced dew at this point in mid summer, dog days as I have these past 5 days

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WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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