Re: September Obs & Discussions

by **jmanley32** Fri Sep 22, 2023 1:07 pm

rb924119 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:12z CMC is on board the GFS in giving half as much rain 1.5-2 inches and taking that sharp left and going well inland. Rb not sure if your ideas can still hold without the CMC, unless we need to start watching the SR models. Not saying you couldn't still be right but model guidance appears against it.

I don’t agree with that left hook, but we’ll see. I agree with you on all accounts here, though.

Well as long as it stays north track the better looks for you. What is supposed to draw it westward?

by **amugs** Fri Sep 22, 2023 1:24 pm

rb924119 wrote:
amugs wrote:Who wants to do this all again next weekend???? pattern recognition says so peeps!!

I was waiting to get through this one before talking about the next one, but yes, we may very well do this again aha

Rb I hear ya but you know - i multiwxtask - whats on deck as "we" collectively take this one on LOL!!
It is this storm that actually loops back SW and regenerates into another hybrid Noreaster next weekend..... if ONLY in winter it be WOWZA!!
This is like an olympic 3 round fight, ding ding!!

@IsaacWxObserver @SteveOweathaguy @USAwx this weekend storm loops SW and the reintensifies. Imagine if winter?!! I saw you post about this earlier upon review it seems as it is just this? pic.twitter.com/rDVgDFr2Mt
— Al Mugno (@MugnoaAl) September 22, 2023

by **sroc4** Fri Sep 22, 2023 1:53 pm

jmanley32 wrote:The LLC looks impressive but we need that upper level to fill in with convection, looks like it may be starting to RI. NHC now has it getting to 65mph TS.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=16L&product=vis

Yes but its naked. All the convection is to the W and NW. Hard to RI without the mid level circulation over top. What intensification takes place is likely a result of Upper level jet dynamics IMO with of course of the warm waters beneath playing its part too. And Jon what turns it west is the upper level trough I outlined in the WV sat image a few posts back...again IMO

Blue shaded area is where landfall most likely occurs IMO. Not much time before it does.

September Obs & Discussions - Page 9 Landfa10

by **amugs** Fri Sep 22, 2023 2:12 pm

West, it will be more inland so it seems.

September Obs & Discussions - Page 9 175144_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind

by **phil155** Fri Sep 22, 2023 2:15 pm

It look like some of the meso models have backed off on the higher rain totals a bit

by **amugs** Fri Sep 22, 2023 2:15 pm

amugs wrote:West, it will be more inland so it seems.

September Obs & Discussions - Page 9 F6pfrwBXYAApYWP?format=webp&name=900x900

by **jmanley32** Fri Sep 22, 2023 2:29 pm

Ha we have a named storm, scott pretty sure you are right in terms of track, and everything else you said. I know it is named I said it needed to become vertically stacked I think. And it is looking less impactful for up here even jersey in terms of rain and winds, but still time for changes but I dont think landfall point will change much, unless rays thoughts pan out and that west turn does not happen but I know you guys disagree on that and I can see why.

by **amugs** Fri Sep 22, 2023 2:32 pm

September Obs & Discussions - Page 9 Qpf_acc-imp.us_ne

EURO gives us a soaking rain - not flooding but nothing to sneeze on a 2" plus rain.

by **phil155** Fri Sep 22, 2023 2:47 pm

amugs wrote:

EURO gives us a soaking rain - not flooding but nothing to sneeze on a 2" plus rain.

Thanks, I was looking at some of the newer meso models and it appeared to my that they had backed off a bit, which I for one was not at all upset about but it looks like a solid rainfall and maybe another one next week.

I wonder if we will see the coastal systems continue into the winter

by **billg315** Fri Sep 22, 2023 4:01 pm

Couple quick thoughts:
1. Radar is really flourishing and looking impressive at the moments. Lots of moisture here and what is becoming a defined circulation center;
2. It is already 60 mph and not expected to make landfall until about 6-8 a.m. tomorrow. In that warm bath water off the NC coast, I wouldn't rule out @rb924119 suggestion that this could hit hurricane strength before reaching land. 12 hours is a long time for that storm to develop from 60 mph winds in that warm water.
3. Interesting that the current forecast track from the NHC is a jog further east from the path the models are showing, also closer to what rb had mentioned.

Either way, tomorrow should be interesting around these parts. Coastal flooding at the shore? Likely. Heavy Rain? Likely. Gusty Winds? Likely. Good day to stay home and stay dry.

by **jmanley32** Fri Sep 22, 2023 4:11 pm

billg315 wrote:Couple quick thoughts:
1. Radar is really flourishing and looking impressive at the moments. Lots of moisture here and what is becoming a defined circulation center;
2. It is already 60 mph and not expected to make landfall until about 6-8 a.m. tomorrow. In that warm bath water off the NC coast, I wouldn't rule out @rb924119 suggestion that this could hit hurricane strength before reaching land. 12 hours is a long time for that storm to develop from 60 mph winds in that warm water.
3. Interesting that the current forecast track from the NHC is a jog further east from the path the models are showing, also closer to what rb had mentioned.

Either way, tomorrow should be interesting around these parts. Coastal flooding at the shore? Likely. Heavy Rain? Likely. Gusty Winds? Likely. Good day to stay home and stay dry.

last i looked 2 hrs ago looked like convection was trying to wrap around the southern side. If she gets to can strength msy be a minimal ts by time gets up this way instead a depression especially if stays on eastern part of cone.

by **amugs** Fri Sep 22, 2023 4:46 pm

September Obs & Discussions - Page 9 F6pn5610

Solid rainstorm. 2 part event.
Round 1 Saturday
Round 2 Sunday and maybe into earlier afternoon Mon.
Round 3....next Fridayish

by **amugs** Fri Sep 22, 2023 4:59 pm

by **billg315** Fri Sep 22, 2023 5:40 pm

amugs wrote:NAM

This is what concerns me. I remember in Ida there was forecast heavy rain and flood watches, but the 4-5" projections quickly became 8, 9" rainfalls. When I see a model like that, the 2-3" projections I'm seeing elsewhere seem conservative. Maybe correct in the end, but conservative.

by **billg315** Fri Sep 22, 2023 5:44 pm

Ophelia's winds now at 70 mph after being 60 mph at 2 p.m.. Anyone willing to bet against them increasing by at least 5 mph in that warm water before tomorrow a.m.? I think the odds favor this achieving hurricane status before landfall.

by **jmanley32** Fri Sep 22, 2023 5:48 pm

billg315 wrote:Ophelia's winds now at 70 mph after being 60 mph at 2 p.m.. Anyone willing to bet against them increasing by at least 5 mph in that warm water before tomorrow a.m.? I think the odds favor this achieving hurricane status before landfall.

At this rate, and now winds have wrapped around the center she may become a moderate cat 1. Scott since this is officially Ophelia shouldnt we movie to tropics? not clog up the sept. thread with 30 pages lol.

by **jmanley32** Fri Sep 22, 2023 5:49 pm

billg315 wrote:
amugs wrote:NAM

This is what concerns me. I remember in Ida there was forecast heavy rain and flood watches, but the 4-5" projections quickly became 8, 9" rainfalls. When I see a model like that, the 2-3" projections I'm seeing elsewhere seem conservative. Maybe correct in the end, but conservative.

Thats a decent increase since 12z, I agree with Bill this has reminders of Ida all over it expect with Ida the only threat was rain and tornadoes.

by **billg315** Fri Sep 22, 2023 5:50 pm

Hurricane Watch now issued for NC shore.

by **billg315** Fri Sep 22, 2023 5:58 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
billg315 wrote:Ophelia's winds now at 70 mph after being 60 mph at 2 p.m.. Anyone willing to bet against them increasing by at least 5 mph in that warm water before tomorrow a.m.? I think the odds favor this achieving hurricane status before landfall.
At this rate, and now winds have wrapped around the center she may become a moderate cat 1. Scott since this is officially Ophelia shouldnt we movie to tropics? not clog up the sept. thread with 30 pages lol.

Started a separate thread as I'm sure there will be more discussion of this over the next 48 hours.

by **dkodgis** Sat Sep 23, 2023 6:08 pm

The sun sets at 6:55 pm today as if that mattered with the cloudy skies. 55. Steady rain. I picked up two inches so far. 15 mph with gusts double that. I had to turn the heat on for a bit. My hands were icing. It is still too warm for a fire. One last thing. My elec bill says it has been five degrees cooler this past month than on average. So with this storm and next weekend we have plenty of moisture. With El Niño we have plenty of moisture but like now if the temp is too high, our hopes are dashed for snow

by **amugs** Sun Sep 24, 2023 4:41 pm

September Obs & Discussions - Page 9 F6zwx-10

Next weekend. GFS showed it backed off now Canadian is on it. Need to watch this.

by **dkodgis** Sun Sep 24, 2023 11:31 pm

From late last night until this morning, I had about 1/8 inch of rain. Today especially starting around noon, it started raining pretty good and from about 7 pm for sure it opened up and is still pouring. The rain gauge has three inches in it for today and it is still raining. So the two from yesterday and today = five inches. More than I expected. 57 degrees at 11 pm which is about as cold as it will get tonight.

by **Dunnzoo** Mon Sep 25, 2023 9:27 am

Just a miserable few days here. Not much wind, and 2.15" since the start on the 23rd. Can't wait to see the sun again.

by **phil155** Mon Sep 25, 2023 10:15 am

this is just plain dreary

by **billg315** Mon Sep 25, 2023 11:23 am

Cloudy, chilly, drizzly. Weather in a word: Yuck. Bring back the sun.

by **docstox12** Mon Sep 25, 2023 11:38 am

55 degrees, steady light to moderate rain, slight breeze.

by **frank 638** Mon Sep 25, 2023 11:46 am

This weather is depressing still drizzling misty yucky feels like Seattle weather

by Sponsored content