September Obs & Discussions

jmanley32 wrote:

amugs wrote:This is more in line I'd day overall look.

Mother nature just likes playing games lol, that little yellow dot and yonkers 3.7 is just a kick, i know most is supposed to be on friday and thank god I work from home but still. We went from a a few inches to as much as a high end 6-8 inchnes low end 3 inches.

Holy crap that is insane I hope this not true having a great time but need to come home to my furbabies on Sat..

amugs wrote:Jesus please be wrong!

Crap I just said to jman I hoped his map was wrong this is worse...I want to come home sat to my furbabies...we had remenents here from our us storm was named..Angnes.lots of rain and wind yesterday winds were 60 plus miles a little south of us ..here in Dublin over 30

Looking at some of the recent hrrr model runs it seems to keep the heaviest rains to our east

OH LORD NO!!! WE NEED AN ARK LITERALLY IF this were top happen - lets hope UKIE and EURO have a better handle and keep teh heaviest east - over the ocean!!! I'll take 2-3" and run at ths point with these latest maps from MEESO. HRRR I owuld not use yet with this for it will swing bigly.

amugs wrote:OH LORD NO!!! WE NEED AN ARK LITERALLY IF this were top happen - lets hope UKIE and EURO have a better handle and keep teh heaviest east - over the ocean!!! I'll take 2-3" and run at ths point with these latest maps from  MEESO. HRRR I owuld not use yet with this for it will swing bigly.

If this is correct there will be very serious flooding, some of that is almost Ida like rainfall totals

3km nam at 12z has storms training to the north almost the whole state on NJ, with a break Sunday and then the LP sends precip back in all day Sunday. total rain, 7-8". GFS and 12km Nam have a more reasonable 3-4".

This moisture fetch is very concnerning for flooding

amugs wrote:OH LORD NO!!! WE NEED AN ARK LITERALLY IF this were top happen - lets hope UKIE and EURO have a better handle and keep teh heaviest east - over the ocean!!! I'll take 2-3" and run at ths point with these latest maps from  MEESO. HRRR I owuld not use yet with this for it will swing bigly.

Umm Lets hope the UKIE  DOES NOT have a better handle  LOL

sroc4 wrote:

amugs wrote:OH LORD NO!!! WE NEED AN ARK LITERALLY IF this were top happen - lets hope UKIE and EURO have a better handle and keep teh heaviest east - over the ocean!!! I'll take 2-3" and run at ths point with these latest maps from  MEESO. HRRR I owuld not use yet with this for it will swing bigly.

Umm  Lets hope the UKIE  DOES NOT have a better handle  LOL

These maps are all nuts, even if more east, theres 10.6 inches in LI. My guess is tomorrow we see at least some places see severe to devastating flooding. I knowe SR models can be inaccurate but we are within 12 hrs or so to onset. What is the RRFS model?

NWS, bottom is very concerning.

Flood Watch
National Weather Service New York NY
248 PM EDT Thu Sep 28 2023

CTZ005-006-009-010-NJZ002-004-006-103>107-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-
290300-
/O.CON.KOKX.FA.A.0010.230929T0600Z-230930T1000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Southern Fairfield-Southern
New Haven-Western Passaic-Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-
Eastern Bergen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Union-Orange-
Putnam-Rockland-Northern Westchester-Southern Westchester-New
York (Manhattan)-Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-
Northwest Suffolk-Northeast Suffolk-Southwest Suffolk-Southeast
Suffolk-Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern
Nassau-
248 PM EDT Thu Sep 28 2023

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM EDT FRIDAY THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall possible.

* WHERE...Portions of southern Connecticut, including the following
 areas, Northern Fairfield, Northern New Haven, Southern Fairfield
 and Southern New Haven. Portions of northeast New Jersey,
 including the following areas, Eastern Bergen, Eastern Essex,
 Eastern Passaic, Hudson, Western Bergen, Western Essex, Western
 Passaic and Western Union. Portions of southeast New York,
 including the following areas, Bronx, Kings (Brooklyn), New York
 (Manhattan), Northeast Suffolk, Northern Nassau, Northern Queens,
 Northern Westchester, Northwest Suffolk, Orange, Putnam, Richmond
 (Staten Island), Rockland, Southeast Suffolk, Southern Nassau,
 Southern Queens, Southern Westchester and Southwest Suffolk.

* WHEN...From 2 AM EDT Friday through late Friday night.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers,
 creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations.
 Extensive street flooding and flooding of creeks and rivers are
 possible.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
 - 2 to 4 inches of rain, with localized amounts in excess of 5
   inches possible. Rainfall rates in excess of 1 inch per hour
   possible.
 - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

Flood watch up for my area.Right now, cloudy, 61 degrees and calm.With the ground already saturated, this will be a real rough ride around these parts.

Ground is already so saturated. Hoping 5 inches of rainfall does not verify.

I know the HRRR is going to widely range but my god 10-14 inches of rain, this would be devastating. This also shifted west. Yonkers wasn't hit that bad by Ida, I think he had 6-7.

jmanley32 wrote:I know the HRRR is going to widely range but my god 10-14 inches of rain, this would be devastating. This also shifted west. Yonkers wasn't hit that bad by Ida, I think he had 6-7.

Yeah these maps have super strong Ida vibes. There we saw them all generally align around 5-6 hours before the main event, so I’m guessing picture becomes pretty clear by the 00z runs this evening

This is telling. They nailed basically except for a few isolated spots the last map they produced. Jesus this is NG.

Disclaimer: I do not believe this happens verbatim

sroc4 wrote:Disclaimer:  I do not believe this happens verbatim

If it did this would be a epic disaster under those 10-15 inch areas which are very close to me, cut this in half it will still be awrful for some.

How does a nontropical system generate so much moisture?

lglickman1 wrote:How does a nontropical system generate so much moisture?

I think it has to do with the jet stream mugs was talking about it earlier, it is also just going to sit and rotate, alot of training or stationary areas of rain from what I can see on simulated radars. Just started raining here I am on Huguenot, see your in NR too.

amugs wrote:This is telling. They nailed basically except for a few isolated spots the last map they produced. Jesus this is NG.

Is there one for upton?

jmanley32 wrote:

amugs wrote:This is telling. They nailed basically except for a few isolated spots the last map they produced. Jesus this is NG.

Is there one for upton?

This would truly be a disaster for many locations, this would likely cause destructive flooding

amugs wrote:

This would be biblical if it happened, sadly not in a good way like it would be with snow....The fact that NWS is going with 6+ is scary. They always err on the lower end, they are taking a blend of the LR and SR. IMO some places may end up with a foot of rain...And the HREF and the NWS map match up nearly perfectly, just HREF is more extreme. At the very least we are going to see moderate to major flooding. If HREF verifies for NYC metro area this will be a epic disaster.

What did I say this morning, if these models continue to show what they do this will go to high IMO. Not good. Glad I am home tomorrow but am concerned for my wife who will be driving through areas that are prone to flooding in the morning and evening. I know parents that are keeping their kids home.



It is good we do not have any wind with this, or if we do its going to be lights out as many many big trees will be easily uprooted, might even happen without wind just from the weight of the rain on trees.

OT but did you all know t-mobile and samsung phones even though they have the emergency alrt system notification option it will not go off on your phone!@ Explains why I no longer see flood warnings etc on my phone. My phone used to. I will have to set up my weather radio but I think those are off air still are they not?

Prepare if you have not done so!!

amugs wrote:

Seems very much like the type of situation where we may very likely have big differences in totals over a relatively small area