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September Obs & Discussions

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Grselig
dsix85
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sroc4
Math23x7
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phil155
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jmanley32
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Dunnzoo
weatherwatchermom
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September Obs & Discussions - Page 13 Empty Re: September Obs & Discussions

Post by amugs Thu Sep 28, 2023 8:46 pm

September Obs & Discussions - Page 13 Qpf_0411
September Obs & Discussions - Page 13 Hrdps_11

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Post by phil155 Thu Sep 28, 2023 9:00 pm

amugs wrote:September Obs & Discussions - Page 13 Qpf_0411
September Obs & Discussions - Page 13 Hrdps_11

Seems very much like the type of situation where we may very likely have big differences in totals over a relatively small area

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Post by SENJsnowman Thu Sep 28, 2023 9:43 pm

Dang, it's been raining really hard at the Shore for the past hour already. Only 48 more hours of this to go as per the latest forecasts!

And for us Jews in the tri-state area, looks like there is zero chance of eating in the Sukkah tomorrow tonight.   Sad     It's said that this is an omen for a tough year ahead. We'll see...

I'm living in Long Branch now (exit 105 on the GSP) and by the looks of the maps that have been posted in the past 24 hours, my new spot just might be in the 'jackpot' zone. Yay! More like the jackpit zone in this case. lol

What's gonna be will be, but I hope everyone stays dry and safe! On the bright side, come Sunday we could be in for a pretty spectacular week! Just got to stay afloat until then...

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Post by Bkdude Thu Sep 28, 2023 9:46 pm




Never heard that before about An omen for a tough year.
And tough in what way?

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Sep 28, 2023 10:01 pm

phil155 wrote:
amugs wrote:September Obs & Discussions - Page 13 Qpf_0411
September Obs & Discussions - Page 13 Hrdps_11

Seems very much like the type of situation where we may very likely have big differences in totals over a relatively small area
yes but I think it appears that NE NJ, westchester county, NYC parts of western LI and fairfield CT are in for the bullseye and parts of the shore.
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Post by SENJsnowman Thu Sep 28, 2023 10:23 pm

Bkdude wrote:


Never heard that before about An omen for a tough year.
And tough in what way?

BK- I just followed up with you in the banter section.


Are these storm or storms the past two weekends the result of El Nino? I haven't been following the forum in the past few days so sorry if it was discussed already.

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Sep 28, 2023 10:26 pm

SENJsnowman wrote:
Bkdude wrote:


Never heard that before about An omen for a tough year.
And tough in what way?

BK- I just followed up with you in the banter section.


Are these storm or storms the past two weekends the result of El Nino? I haven't been following the forum in the past few days so sorry if it was discussed already.
They are remnants of TS Ophelia.
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Post by weatherwatchermom Fri Sep 29, 2023 4:20 am

sroc4 wrote:Disclaimer:  I do not believe this happens verbatim

September Obs & Discussions - Page 13 1696075200-JmqKovb2RaQ

Omg I hope not
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Sep 29, 2023 7:39 am

Judging by models and the rain falling i think they overplayed this. Sr models now show another inch or 2 of rain so other than localized doesnt look like there will be lots of flooding. Its also falling over a long period of time not 1 or 2 hrs. I did see querns had a ffw.
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Post by amugs Fri Sep 29, 2023 7:43 am

1.40" as of 7AM this morning at 57*

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Sep 29, 2023 8:01 am

On the otherhand looking at radar now from staten to central LI is really getting smacked. If that ever moves north we could be in trouble here. That map scott posted could verify for LI or pretty close.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Sep 29, 2023 8:57 am

here we go. Also up for all boroughs until 11:45am, is it supposed to lighten by then? Will there be a second round or is this morning it and it clears later today?

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service New York NY
847 AM EDT Fri Sep 29 2023

The National Weather Service in Upton has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
Southern Fairfield County in southern Connecticut...
Northern Bergen County in northeastern New Jersey...
Rockland County in southeastern New York...
Southern Westchester County in southeastern New York...

* Until 1145 AM EDT.

* At 847 AM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing
heavy rain across the warned area. Between 1 and 2.5 inches of
rain have fallen. The expected rainfall rate is 1 to 2 inches in 1
hour. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are possible in
the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin
shortly.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Radar.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban
areas, highways, streets and underpasses as well as
other poor drainage and low-lying areas.

* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
Yonkers, New Rochelle, White Plains, New City, Port Chester,
Monsey, Nanuet, Rye, Ramsey, Tarrytown, Dobbs Ferry, Suffern,
Nyack, Tappan, Greenwich, Harrison, Scarsdale, Pearl River,
Bronxville and Norwood.
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Post by amugs Fri Sep 29, 2023 9:27 am

Absoluetly pouring up here in Allendale before - freind in Ramsey has 2.82" so far!!

FDR drive closed both directions now at Delancey

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by amugs Fri Sep 29, 2023 9:28 am



Last edited by amugs on Fri Sep 29, 2023 10:28 am; edited 1 time in total

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Sep 29, 2023 9:36 am

amugs wrote:September Obs & Discussions - Page 13 Image.thumb.jpeg.3ddcbf2c8d7cdd69c8fe20552722593b
It didnt post mugs. Pouring here too, wish I had a way to measure the rain but not allowed put anything on fire escape.
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Post by Dunnzoo Fri Sep 29, 2023 9:43 am

jmanley32 wrote:
amugs wrote:September Obs & Discussions - Page 13 Image.thumb.jpeg.3ddcbf2c8d7cdd69c8fe20552722593b
It didnt post mugs. Pouring here too, wish I had a way to measure the rain but not allowed put anything on fire escape.

Where in Yonkers are you Jon, closer to the Bronx or farther north? A station in Bryn Mawr Park recorded 4.44", near Mount Vernon 2.41"

_________________
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Snowfall winter of 2023-2024  17.5"    

Snowfall winter of 2022-2023       6.0"
Snowfall winter of 2021-2022     17.6"    1" sleet 2/25/22
Snowfall winter of 2020-2021     51.1"
Snowfall winter of 2019-2020       8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Sep 29, 2023 9:48 am

Dunnzoo wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
amugs wrote:September Obs & Discussions - Page 13 Image.thumb.jpeg.3ddcbf2c8d7cdd69c8fe20552722593b
It didnt post mugs. Pouring here too, wish I had a way to measure the rain but not allowed put anything on fire escape.

Where in Yonkers are you Jon, closer to the Bronx or farther north? A station in Bryn Mawr Park recorded 4.44", near Mount Vernon 2.41"
right on border of bronx, 2 min walk. Mt. Vernon is a few miles away.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Sep 29, 2023 9:54 am

Radar and report from me it is a tourant of rain and its just training.
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Post by frank 638 Fri Sep 29, 2023 10:09 am

Last time we saw heavy rain was like this was in 2021 in September when we had Ida nonstop heavy rain. I hope everyone’s doing OK. Stay safe, everyone.

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Sep 29, 2023 10:11 am

frank 638 wrote:Last time we saw heavy rain was like this was in 2021 in September when we had Ida nonstop heavy rain. I hope everyone’s doing OK. Stay safe, everyone.
I am actually surprised no flooding on the parkways over here, any by you? It really is coming down, but I think Ida was heavier and shorter duration which is what added to the severity of that flooding.
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Post by Dunnzoo Fri Sep 29, 2023 10:15 am

Brooklyn

https://x.com/volcaholic1/status/1707750680964845859?s=20

https://x.com/ReedTimmerAccu/status/1707756723186946227?s=20

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Snowfall winter of 2023-2024  17.5"    

Snowfall winter of 2022-2023       6.0"
Snowfall winter of 2021-2022     17.6"    1" sleet 2/25/22
Snowfall winter of 2020-2021     51.1"
Snowfall winter of 2019-2020       8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by frank 638 Fri Sep 29, 2023 10:28 am

jmanley32 wrote:
frank 638 wrote:Last time we saw heavy rain was like this was in 2021 in September when we had Ida nonstop heavy rain. I hope everyone’s doing OK. Stay safe, everyone.
I am actually surprised no flooding on the parkways over here, any by you? It really is coming down, but I think Ida was heavier and shorter duration which is what added to the severity of that flooding.
I’m at work in Midtown and I’m constantly checking my cameras. No flooding yet. Thank God I hope you guys are doing well. Stay safe.

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Post by amugs Fri Sep 29, 2023 10:35 am



AS per reports NYC declared state of emergency - CALL OUT THE GUARD FOR GOODNESS SAKE AND GET THESE STRANDED PEEPS !!! FDNY is overloaded and can't get to all water rescues.
Cuz is a Deputy Chief.

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WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by amugs Fri Sep 29, 2023 10:38 am


_________________
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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by docstox12 Fri Sep 29, 2023 10:41 am

54 degrees, moderate rain, no wind.Sharp cutoff on the radar, nothing in Port Jervis.I am on the western edge of this.Those videos of areas East of me tell me the brunt of this is East of the Hudson River.
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Post by dkodgis Fri Sep 29, 2023 11:20 am

Same for up-county. Maybe a thimble-full of rain
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Sep 29, 2023 11:26 am

Umm yeah okay, major flooding check, saw mill parkway is under water, I finally called 911 because after 2 hrs no one was coming. MTA complete shutdown.
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