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Long Range Thread 27.0

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Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 5 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 27.0

Post by jmanley32 Tue Nov 21, 2023 9:56 pm

Irish wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
brownie wrote:
Irish wrote:
dkodgis wrote:Ha ha. I don’t know how that spelling got in there. 

“cold” not vlof

Was really hoping that that was a special weather word that meant good things to come. However, now it's even funnier, oh, and cold is coming!

I think that should be a new board term. Like, "Baby, It's vlof outside."
I actually googled it.  To no avail, of course.  LOL

It actually does stand for something. In aviation is means "lift off speed." I seen you continue to have that happen every popst you try to write cold in, maybe its a syntax prank lol

Edit, did not read the rest of the BANTER in long range, hey just calling it like it is haha. You all are too funny.

In all actuality it's probably just him fat-fingering cold. The v is right next to c, he's typing to quickly and switching the l and o and then the f is right next to the d.
I know that all to well, i really liked when phones had actual buttons. I had that sliding sideways one, i forget what it was called but it was great.

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Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 5 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 27.0

Post by rb924119 Thu Nov 23, 2023 12:12 pm

December 5th-9th period may be the next one to watch for an another legitimate shot at a winter storm, folks, but I have to investigate further.

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Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 5 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 27.0

Post by heehaw453 Fri Nov 24, 2023 9:48 am

Overall from what I see folks should much more encouraged than last year as we head into December. Even though we had good HL blocking last December the SER just flexed too much and the western trough was stout (see picture). This December 1-15 we won't contend with a huge trough in the west and a ridge bridge n/s. That being the case though climo is what it is and I could see the EPO/PNA taking a bit to give most folks a shot at something decent. The NAO looks to be heading into a good state, but I believe a shot at something decent may require the usual patience...

December 1-15 (2022) 500mb think very different this year

Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 5 500mb20

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Nov 25, 2023 5:27 pm

The Pacific has been the culprit for our bad winters the last couple of seasons. Let’s see a consistent -EPO and/or +PNA and there will be ample chances for snow this season. The development of El Niño and where it’s concentrating the tropical forcing should put us in a much better position. I don’t think anyone is really debating that at this point. But it goes without saying that you need a lot of pieces to work out, including the NAO and what happens over the Arctic/Stratosphere.

Long range looks interesting. Some conflicting signals with the MJO and NAO. I’m thinking the 2nd week of December will bring a period of persistent below normal temperatures. Snow chances will be elevated as well. That’s a very nice looking +PNA and -NAO. Let’s see if it holds out

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Nov 26, 2023 8:46 am

It is far out into the LR, but the GEFS and EPS look juicy starting in that 2nd week of December. Already a stark contrast to last year as HeeHaw pointed out.


Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 5 Img_6610
Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 5 Img_6611

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Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 5 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 27.0

Post by heehaw453 Tue Nov 28, 2023 8:43 am

Rb had alluded to this period. Do not be surprised if something materializes on 12/4-12/5. I checked the positives and x'd the negative that I see. I believe a s/w is going to track across the US. I don't necessarily think it pulls north of us with this type of setup. The PNA being amplified, west based Baffin Bay block and a 50/50 trough starting to develop.

The issue I see is the antecedent air mass is warm due to a SER flexing on the east coast coupled with a poor EPO. My initial thought is I-84 corridor for a snowfall threat, but those along I78 and northward shouldn't sleep on this setup.

Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 5 12-4-511

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Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 5 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 27.0

Post by amugs Tue Nov 28, 2023 9:11 am

Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 5 GABRhdyWkAAu9Vx?format=jpg&name=large

ENS sniffing out the possibility

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Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 5 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 27.0

Post by amugs Tue Nov 28, 2023 12:05 pm

MJO does into COD which is better than phase or 4 which is a warm, torchy phase. Now we may have a few warmer days followed by a trough for a couple of days but the N NAO may have something to say about this.

Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 5 Mjo10

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Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 5 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 27.0

Post by heehaw453 Tue Nov 28, 2023 2:27 pm

Let's see what the EPS shows in the next few days but I liked the Euro Op model run today for the 12/6 ish period. This is an intriguing setup. Big Rockies ridge and digging EC trough. Get the trough to turn negative a bit sooner then watch out. The lower layer BL yes it's early December so that could be an issue. Got my attention...

Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 5 Euro138

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Post by amugs Tue Nov 28, 2023 8:21 pm

heehaw453 wrote:Let's see what the EPS shows in the next few days but I liked the Euro Op model run today for the 12/6 ish period. This is an intriguing setup. Big Rockies ridge and digging EC trough. Get the trough to turn negative a bit sooner then watch out. The lower layer BL yes it's early December so that could be an issue. Got my attention...

Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 5 Euro138

Totally concur - air mass is plenty cold at -8C at 850, need a bit more trough depper in the EPAC to pump the PNA which would help build, rasie the heights along the EC helping this along to turn more N IMO.
This can be fixed in time. Lets do this.

See the massive arctic air mass building in the LR over CANADA projected at CONUS???
PV gets whacked real good by the mid month and continues on thorugh helping stretch that bad boy and keep it weak.


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Post by amugs Tue Nov 28, 2023 9:43 pm

Stretch that PV baby like a bungee cord holding that rooftop suitecase! Means above average for blocking in the Arctic Region and cold some maybe wicked if pieces break off.

Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 5 Gadt-i10Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 5 Gadt-i10

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Post by amugs Tue Nov 28, 2023 9:46 pm

The EPS is almost there for the 7th storm
Great deeper EPAC trough that pumps the PNA more, better separation between storms and the looks of s 50/50 depending too. Ingredients are there and plenty cold there. NE is favored  UT it's close for LHV and NNJ. 

Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 5 Ecmwf-19

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Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 5 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 27.0

Post by sroc4 Wed Nov 29, 2023 7:48 am

amugs wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:Let's see what the EPS shows in the next few days but I liked the Euro Op model run today for the 12/6 ish period. This is an intriguing setup. Big Rockies ridge and digging EC trough. Get the trough to turn negative a bit sooner then watch out. The lower layer BL yes it's early December so that could be an issue. Got my attention...

Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 5 Euro138

Totally concur - air mass is plenty cold at -8C at 850, need a bit more trough depper in the EPAC to pump the PNA which would help build, rasie the heights along the EC helping this along to turn more N IMO.
This can be fixed in time. Lets do this.

See the massive arctic air mass building in the LR over CANADA projected at CONUS???
PV gets whacked real good by the mid month and continues on through helping stretch that bad boy and keep it weak.


Morning fells.  I hate to be the guy who's glass is half empty while others are trying to be half full but I have to argue a counter point to the optimism.  My concern is that the atmosphere and set up isnt there for this one.  Its starts with the MJO forcing.  It's in and around phase 3 and 4 leading into this time frame neither is a cold phase in general for our region.  The EPO is very strongly in a positive phase, +2-2.5 (+/-), around this time frame.   The result is a mean trough ridge axis forced into a positive tilted progressive state beginning over the Pacific and extending over the entire NA continent.  This looks to translate through the entire configuration of the jet stream mean pattern from WC to the EC.  Im trying to find a mechanism that can buckle the jet along the EC coast, but I am just not seeing it at this point.  This has to happen, (EC trough tilts towards at least neutral to slt neg before it exits the EC), to give our storm system a mechanism to draw cold air into it.  Its going to be extremely difficult to get enough cold air into the system in time to make a difference with such a progressive Atlantic.  Again its the mean ridge trough axis configuration, likely driven by an unfavorable MJO and EPO as stated above that is the preverbal thorn in the side or Achilles heal, despite favorable things like a positive PNA and negative NAO.  Anyway its just how I see it.

Below are the euro op which has support with the ensembles at 500mbs regarding this unfavorable trough/ridge configuration.  GFS Op and ensembles have similar agreement.  Ill include the GEFS below the EPS.  Then below that look at the upper level jet at 200mb is just screaming off the EC leading to the progressive flow.  Now there is enough time between now and then for some of the drivers to evolve and perhaps change for the better, but IMHO the coastal plain should keep an extremely low expectation(ie: no white), and even folks NW should temper the expectation for now as well(ie: slight chance).  

Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 5 Ecmwf143
Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 5 Ecmwf144
Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 5 Gfs-en35

Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 5 Ecmwf145
Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 5 Ecmwf146

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Post by heehaw453 Wed Nov 29, 2023 8:16 am

It's most likely not going to work out for snow on the coastal plain and more immediate suburbs. I could see I-84 corridor in play for a modest accumulation and white rain in coastal plain and more immediate suburbs. The lower level BL is going to be an issue especially towards the coast due to a warm antecedent SER and there's nothing to really scour that out at lower layers. Other than the EPO I like seeing amplified PNA, blocking and a good AO state. It's very early for a decent accumulation for most folks...

Latter part of December I'd bet this works out much better for a lot of folks on this board.

Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 5 Eps83

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Post by amugs Wed Nov 29, 2023 8:25 am

Thakns for the analysis SROC. The map I posted portended to a good possibility as the PNA was further west whch allowed for downstream adjustments. Last nights run at 0Z show the ridge rolling east, that won't cut it. Lets see what subsequent runs say.
The PV is being stretched by mid month of DEC. If true it will do some dirty work in supplying cold air into the CONUS.

Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 5 GAEcoO7WUAADtsK?format=jpg&name=small

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Post by sroc4 Wed Nov 29, 2023 9:06 am

amugs wrote:Thakns for the analysis SROC. The map I posted portended to a good possibility as the PNA was further west whch allowed for downstream adjustments. Last nights run at 0Z show the ridge rolling east, that won't cut it. Lets see what subsequent runs say.
The PV is being stretched by mid month of DEC. If true it will do some dirty work in supplying cold air into the CONUS.

Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 5 GAEcoO7WUAADtsK?format=jpg&name=small

Yeah Mugs, I am really excited about the LT Strat forecasts. That said like any LT potential there is still alot of uncertainty on the details of how is pans out. Potential is def there though for pretty wild end of the year into the first few weeks of next year.

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Post by amugs Wed Nov 29, 2023 10:30 am

@SROC Mid Month thorugh Mid Jan to be much better pattern set up if MJO runs into 7 then traverses into Phase 8,1,2 from COD as projected and the PV weakining and being stretched as projected as well.

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Post by amugs Wed Nov 29, 2023 10:33 am

WOW CRANKY is not so cranky anymore. I like his take, not because it says what can happen, but how meteorological it is and his explanations. He really knows meteorology well as I have found.


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Post by amugs Wed Nov 29, 2023 10:41 am

Minor pertubatoins in the pattern can have a great effect on things as pointed out in this


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Post by heehaw453 Wed Nov 29, 2023 11:39 am

This is an op model so take it with a grain of salt. But there will be several s/w's around and you never know how they will deepen AND/OR slow down due to a 50/50 low and an amplifying western ridge. But clearly there are ingredients for some folks on this board (most likely the interior) to get some accumulating snow next week. Do not be surprised if something more starts to show on the models.

Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 5 Gfs184

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Post by aiannone Wed Nov 29, 2023 2:13 pm

12z euro was interesting for Sunday night

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Post by amugs Wed Nov 29, 2023 2:17 pm

The storm should track on this thermal gradient or close to it, storms love to follow this. Time will tell.

If it does your chance of snow increase into burbs of NYC I'd say.

Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 5 GAG6COKasAAjzZh?format=jpg&name=medium

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Post by amugs Wed Nov 29, 2023 2:22 pm

aiannone wrote:12z euro was interesting for Sunday night

All 3 globals have snows into the HV, Orange County, NWNJ now. Euro has a 50/50 low that blows up and helps with a stronger NAO block drive cold air. interesting.
Only 130 hours hours out.
Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 5 Euro_s10


Going to be an interesting period. Ski resorts should be throttled for the 3 waves/storms in this next weeks period!

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Post by amugs Wed Nov 29, 2023 5:53 pm

Mark my words, as a result of the geomagnetic storm, a trough will form over the Gulf of Alaska between Dec 2-4 and will disrupt the Polar Vortex (more cold temps in North America). 

Mark Adams

The pattern will be energized by these blasts. Huge amount of protons and plasma going to bombard us. Watch the storms intensify.

Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 5 Gaiflp10

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Post by amugs Thu Nov 30, 2023 8:43 am

Interesting we shall see - model chaos, the energy we are discussing with these storms is in the fear east - Japan region

Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 5 GALpztyXwAArGT-?format=jpg&name=large

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Post by aiannone Thu Nov 30, 2023 9:37 am

Updated temp outlook for December from TWC:
Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 5 Captur18

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Post by amugs Thu Nov 30, 2023 12:12 pm

Renken did a whole study on this and it is very interesting.
BSR = Bearing Sea Rule


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