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Long Range Thread 27.0

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Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 37 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 27.0

Post by heehaw453 Sat Jan 13, 2024 3:52 pm

The 18Z NAM IMO shows how a few inches are possible with this Tuesday.  The more that 500mb trough digs the higher the heights on the EC which will bring the energy more up and not out. The other models are close enough with energy to warrant attention IMO. The trough has to dig for anything meaningful IMO.

Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 37 Nam18z12

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Post by heehaw453 Sat Jan 13, 2024 4:01 pm

The SREFs are sniffing out a weak wave too. If 500mb trough is able to dig then a weak wave it all it would take for decent QPF with mid-level energy close to the coast.

Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 37 Sref10

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Post by heehaw453 Sat Jan 13, 2024 4:09 pm

As another positive. Outside of the immediate coast temps will probably be mid 20's which is ideal for snow to stick. IT would be wonderful if we had steady light/moderate snowfall that paints the landscape and sticks around for many days. I'm hoping we can pick up a few inches for everyone's sentiment...

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Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 37 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 27.0

Post by heehaw453 Sat Jan 13, 2024 4:55 pm

This is a much better look on the 18Z GFS. Note the trough has space at its base and it's neutral tilt allows heights to rise. This run might not get it done, but it's better.

Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 37 18zgfs12

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Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 37 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 27.0

Post by heehaw453 Sat Jan 13, 2024 5:04 pm

That look has moderate upside event written on it IMO.

Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 37 Gfs196

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Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 37 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 27.0

Post by dkodgis Sat Jan 13, 2024 5:07 pm

This looks a bit better for South Jersey but I’ll take a few inches here
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Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 37 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 27.0

Post by SENJsnowman Sat Jan 13, 2024 5:11 pm

Great to see the GFS improve over previous runs. Latest NAM run is also encouraging, esp for those who missed out on any snow last week.

Maybe the wipers are heading back in the positive direction. I'm certainly not saying the windshield wiper effect is in play, as the setup might not improve beyond what it's presently showing, buuuuuuut, if it is, now is the time for the pendulum to start swinging back.

I have noticed, at least I think I've noticed, that most folk lose sight of the windshield wiper effect as it's happening, and take a more deterministic view of the bad trend. Of course, the flip side to that is people like me who use the wiper effect to hold on to false hope instead of accepting the reality of the situation. But either way, what will be, will be, and...

We Track! What a Face

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Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 37 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 27.0

Post by heehaw453 Sat Jan 13, 2024 5:16 pm

dkodgis wrote:This looks a bit better for South Jersey but I’ll take a few inches here

Not sure I agree with that. IMO the Jetstreak being maxed out north portends best rates will be more northerly. We have to watch the jet streak to see where it orients itself.

Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 37 Jetstr11

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Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 37 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 27.0

Post by heehaw453 Sat Jan 13, 2024 5:20 pm

SENJsnowman wrote:Great to see the GFS improve over previous runs. Latest NAM run is also encouraging, esp for those who missed out on any snow last week.

Maybe the wipers are heading back in the positive direction. I'm certainly not saying the windshield wiper effect is in play, as the setup might not improve beyond what it's presently showing, buuuuuuut, if it is, now is the time for the pendulum to start swinging back.

I have noticed, at least I think I've noticed, that most folk lose sight of the windshield wiper effect as it's happening, and take a more deterministic view of the bad trend. Of course, the flip side to that is people like me who use the wiper effect to hold on to false hope instead of accepting the reality of the situation. But either way, what will be, will be, and...

We Track! What a Face

The data will and is getting more fidelity so to me this is much better than having great runs yesterday and starting to go off a cliff today. But I believe tomorrow much more truth will be told.

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Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 37 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 27.0

Post by Irish Sat Jan 13, 2024 5:32 pm

Certainly trending better. Was a dustng to an inch, now showing 2-4.
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Jan 13, 2024 6:23 pm

Irish wrote:Certainly trending better. Was a dustng to an inch, now showing 2-4.  
Is that TWC? Pointless to use them, or NWS for that. It changes ona dime. I am purely just going to wait and seee what happens, thats all we can do with the way things are. It is what it is as they say.
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Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 37 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 27.0

Post by Irish Sat Jan 13, 2024 6:27 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
Irish wrote:Certainly trending better. Was a dustng to an inch, now showing 2-4.  
Is that TWC? Pointless to use them, or NWS for that. It changes ona dime. I am purely just going to wait and seee what happens, thats all we can do with the way things are. It is what it is as they say.
Yes, and I agree. The only reason I look is to see if any change has occurred. Even if it's TWC, It's rather see totals go up, than down.
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Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 37 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 27.0

Post by hyde345 Sat Jan 13, 2024 8:09 pm

I think this is going to be a 1-3/2-4 type event for basically everybody. Another light/moderate event possible on Friday.
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Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 37 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 27.0

Post by heehaw453 Sat Jan 13, 2024 10:21 pm

00Z RGEM. There is a fair amount of mid-level energy tucked into the coast. I think it'll create a baroclinc zone and if you are on the cold side of it this has 3-5" potential. Have to watch the mid-level energy with this one. My guess is RGEM just a bit too tucked as there is TPV pressing as well as 500mb trough is more neutral tilt. I would air on the side of colder thermals than warmer ones with this setup.



Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 37 Rgem23

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Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 37 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 27.0

Post by heehaw453 Sat Jan 13, 2024 11:07 pm

The GEM feels more right to me on the mid-level placements. Much colder. A nice little event...

Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 37 Ggem11

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Post by heehaw453 Sat Jan 13, 2024 11:14 pm

And as for Thursday night/Friday. The trough will need to dig and go neutral to force heights more NE. If that happens it'll be a big deal and slow moving. BIG IF

Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 37 Gfs238

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Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 37 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 27.0

Post by sroc4 Sun Jan 14, 2024 9:00 am

Things slowly cont to juice up ever so slightly along the coast regarding QPF. And It could be my bias speaking here but Nam looks to be holding some energy back and trying to interact. Northern and southern streams.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
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Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 37 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 27.0

Post by heehaw453 Sun Jan 14, 2024 9:28 am

The mesos are tucked on the mid-level energy. For I95 and points SE it'll be important that it stays a bit more offshore. The precip will be there just a matter of mid-level energy placement on this...

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Post by Irish Sun Jan 14, 2024 9:36 am

heehaw453 wrote:The mesos are tucked on the mid-level energy. For I95 and points SE it'll be important that it stays a bit more offshore. The precip will be there just a matter of mid-level energy placement on this...

Just trying to understand, so we're getting a shot of arctic air and the coast still might allow warmth in to taint?
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Post by phil155 Sun Jan 14, 2024 9:39 am

Irish wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:The mesos are tucked on the mid-level energy. For I95 and points SE it'll be important that it stays a bit more offshore. The precip will be there just a matter of mid-level energy placement on this...

Just trying to understand, so we're getting a shot of arctic air and the coast still might allow warmth in to taint?


Honestly I am not concerned about rain in this one up here in north central nj. Not really in the least I think it is snow or nothing for the vast overwhelming majority of us

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Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 37 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 27.0

Post by heehaw453 Sun Jan 14, 2024 9:40 am

We don't have a strong H anchored over Quebec pumping in fresh cold air with this. There will be a tendency for the storm to want to warm areas closer to the surface on its approach. Still think I95 sees an inch or two at least. But I believe the 3"+ will be NW of I95.



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Post by heehaw453 Sun Jan 14, 2024 9:43 am

Irish wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:The mesos are tucked on the mid-level energy. For I95 and points SE it'll be important that it stays a bit more offshore. The precip will be there just a matter of mid-level energy placement on this...

Just trying to understand, so we're getting a shot of arctic air and the coast still might allow warmth in to taint?

There's no strong H to the north pumping in fresh cold air. If the storm approaches closely like mesos are progged then it will taint especially I95 and points SE.

Where the circle is you'd want some H pumping in cold air on the storm's approach to reinforce the cold air.

Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 37 Euroh10

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Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 37 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 27.0

Post by heehaw453 Sun Jan 14, 2024 9:47 am

Another point is the mesos are at odds with the global models on that warming aspect, but mesos are normally the ones you'd rely on for granular temperature assessment.

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Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 37 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 27.0

Post by sroc4 Sun Jan 14, 2024 10:31 am

heehaw453 wrote:Another point is the mesos are at odds with the global models on that warming aspect, but mesos are normally the ones you'd rely on for granular temperature assessment.

Mesos are still just atthe edge of their wheel house; esp for the nuanced temp profiles. A quick glance at some of the dew points and if there is enough dbz overhead it will cool the column. And the euro should have the resolution to see this and I believe is. Well see. By 12z tomorrow we will stat to fine tune some of those details.

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Post by sroc4 Sun Jan 14, 2024 10:34 am

A general 1-3 seems very reasonable to me; with a ceiling of about 4-5" isolated Maybe depending on some nuance and trends.  

Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 37 StormTotalSnowWeb
Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 37 StormTotalSnowWeb

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Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 37 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 27.0

Post by dkodgis Sun Jan 14, 2024 10:51 am

Small amplification above I95
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Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 37 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 27.0

Post by heehaw453 Sun Jan 14, 2024 11:07 am

I think the 12Z Canadian Global has the right idea with the track. There will be some resistance to pull north due to the TPV and the storm is not going to want to go into that resistance, but avoid it. I see slightly inside BM track but not coastal hugger like some of the meso's are showing.  That being the case the immediate Jersey Shore will mix due to an easterly fetch but if that gets to I95 I have doubts. Just think the Canadian has been making most sense.

Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 37 Canadi21

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