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December 2023 Observations and Discussion

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December 2023 Observations and Discussion Empty December 2023 Observations and Discussion

Post by heehaw453 Thu Nov 30, 2023 10:25 am

I feel this December +2 AN on temps and near average snowfall.  Let's see!

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Post by amugs Thu Nov 30, 2023 10:47 am

heehaw453 wrote:I feel this December +2 AN on temps and near average snowfall.  Let's see!

TWC says otherwise as Alex posted in the LR thread LOL!!! They roll over like a Panda playing in a pile of leaves!

Think Near Normal Temps to BN with AN snowfall.

All it takes is one SECS storm (4"-8" variety) and a clipper thrown in and we go over average in many areas.

I like Mid December thorugh the end of the month (into Mid January for a strong winter pattern)for this to occur as far as current model projections are for MJO, EAMT, PV, NINO forecasts.

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Post by sroc4 Thu Nov 30, 2023 10:51 am

heehaw453 wrote:I feel this December +2 AN on temps and near average snowfall.  Let's see!

Someone cant wait for December to arrive. LOL

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
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Post by heehaw453 Thu Nov 30, 2023 11:25 am

Not much change on my thoughts for 12/5-12/6. It needs to be watched. The s/w interactions at play are complex. The initial s/w could usher in a good thermal profile and become a 50/50 road block. And if (BIG IF) there is a trailing s/w with enough space it could easily intensify due to atlantic blocking and a western ridge and be something to behold.

I'm not hyping this as it all depends on the s/w's which cannot be understood clearly this far out. it may be nothing...

December 2023 Observations and Discussion Gfs185

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Post by sroc4 Thu Nov 30, 2023 12:09 pm

heehaw453 wrote:Not much change on my thoughts for 12/5-12/6. It needs to be watched. The s/w interactions at play are complex. The initial s/w could usher in a good thermal profile and become a 50/50 road block. And if (BIG IF) there is a trailing s/w with enough space it could easily intensify due to atlantic blocking and a western ridge and be something to behold.

I'm not hyping this as it all depends on the s/w's which cannot be understood clearly this far out. it may be nothing...

December 2023 Observations and Discussion Gfs185


Its interesting how thus far the GFS wants to focus on that second wave around 5th-6th as the bigger threat with the 4th as a nothing burger but used to set up the second wave in the form of the 50/50; whereas, the Euro wants the first wave around the 4th to be the bigger deal.  Obv this far out it all is nothing ore than something to follow because like you said, if you get the right timing, positioning, and wave spacing either scenario could pan out for some.  I personally still believe it has to be perfect so my money is tracking with nothing too significant in the end for either wave, but by no means is there a zero threat here.  Excited that its early Dec and we are tracking.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
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December 2023 Observations and Discussion Empty Re: December 2023 Observations and Discussion

Post by heehaw453 Thu Nov 30, 2023 4:17 pm

This is some serious AN temps in the AO domain as head in December. Usually a good sign in these parts for winter weather due to ridging displacing cold air.

The current temperature is about 12 above the average high is about 12 below.

December 2023 Observations and Discussion Aodoma10

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Post by aiannone Fri Dec 01, 2023 1:21 pm

12z Euro
December 2023 Observations and Discussion Pratep24

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Post by heehaw453 Fri Dec 01, 2023 2:15 pm

For next week probably don't have enough wave space between the s/w's as modelled. If the trailing s/w cannot increase heights enough out ahead then the 500mb trough won't go negative and it'll push everything off the coast. I still say it bears watching as this could change as we get closer.

December 2023 Observations and Discussion Gfs186

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Post by dkodgis Sat Dec 02, 2023 7:12 am

A low of 36 this morning. Could be a nice day today of 56  Where is CP
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Post by heehaw453 Sat Dec 02, 2023 12:47 pm

One hell of el Nino now. 2002 seemed similar at the most general level of course.

2023
December 2023 Observations and Discussion Nino10

2002
December 2023 Observations and Discussion Nino2010

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Post by amugs Sat Dec 02, 2023 3:54 pm

Mid month phase 8

December 2023 Observations and Discussion Gaxbo910

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Post by dkodgis Sat Dec 02, 2023 9:01 pm

Sigh. Tomorrow plenty of moisture. Not enough cold air. Always the bridesmaid and never the bride
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Post by heehaw453 Sun Dec 03, 2023 11:19 am

If we don't get lucky with snowfall next week then this most likely gets passed for many folks and some are already passed their average first snowfall. I'd have to believe LHV usually sees measurable snowfall by latter part of November. I guess some folks got a bit so far but probably very localized...

December 2023 Observations and Discussion Averag10
December 2023 Observations and Discussion Snowfa20

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Post by docstox12 Sun Dec 03, 2023 6:57 pm

dkodgis wrote:Sigh. Tomorrow plenty of moisture. Not enough cold air. Always the bridesmaid and never the bride

43, cloudy, calm wind.
Had periods of heavy rain today.
Your right, Damian.The moisture has been cooperating since October and we have had cold air.I suspect these storms are a bit west of us and dragging in warm air.Not liking that at all and hope that pattern changes soon.
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Post by amugs Sun Dec 03, 2023 9:34 pm

43* and rainy
.67" today and .95" in 24 hrs here.

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Post by Dunnzoo Sun Dec 03, 2023 9:38 pm

ick, so miserable out today. Got my chores done and was a good day to watch football all day and not feel guilty! #gopack #eaglesgotsmoked

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Snowfall winter of 2023-2024  17.5"    

Snowfall winter of 2022-2023       6.0"
Snowfall winter of 2021-2022     17.6"    1" sleet 2/25/22
Snowfall winter of 2020-2021     51.1"
Snowfall winter of 2019-2020       8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by amugs Mon Dec 04, 2023 9:07 am

UHI effect much??

December 2023 Observations and Discussion GAgH6Z8WsAA1cau?format=jpg&name=medium

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Post by amugs Mon Dec 04, 2023 11:55 am

If this energy doesn't phase over the Miss Valley as outlined in teh circles and stays seperated then we may see the lead energy travel to the coast, it would be snows for the interior. It is in sparse ROAB region off the Aluetians. The time we don't want a phase it happens and when we do we are off by hours. Just an observations. No one can say definitively this will occur either way at this point in time.

December 2023 Observations and Discussion Tomniz10



Tom Nizzoil credit for GIF

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Post by heehaw453 Tue Dec 05, 2023 10:07 am

Some snow tonight? I might stay up for this one. Mid levels appear saturated enough for it to make it to the surface. Elevated areas in Poconos may pick up a quick inch...

December 2023 Observations and Discussion Hrrr16

December 2023 Observations and Discussion Hrrrhu10

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Post by heehaw453 Tue Dec 05, 2023 3:40 pm

Thursday late morning/early afternoon there might enough instability via a disturbance coming through to provide light snows.

mid level air mass will be good. surface marginal and will depend on when precip comes through.

After last year it's kind of nice to see snow not battle mid-level warmth.

December 2023 Observations and Discussion Nam66
December 2023 Observations and Discussion Nam92511
December 2023 Observations and Discussion Radarn10
December 2023 Observations and Discussion Namsur10

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Post by SENJsnowman Tue Dec 05, 2023 7:12 pm

December 2023 Observations and Discussion Radarn10

The NAM within its range is showing snow to the coast?! In early December?! That by itself is enough to give a winter weather weenie like me Goose Bumps!!!  😀😍❄

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Dec 05, 2023 8:07 pm

Be cool to see if Thursday pans out. I would settle for some mood flakes without rain. Sunday/Mon looks aweful per GFS torrential rain and high winds (I don't have access to wxbell anymore but some other sites show a pretty long duration 6+ hrs of gusts (surface) of 50-75mph verbatim on Euro and GFS) is that overdone I would highly guess yes but it is for sure something to watch. Does bring in some good cold behind it. Don't think theres any way that one can turn into a snow storm. around 19-21st looks like possible coastal, with inland snow?
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Post by amugs Wed Dec 06, 2023 9:29 am

jmanley32 wrote:Be cool to see if Thursday pans out. I would settle for some mood flakes without rain. Sunday/Mon looks aweful per GFS torrential rain and high winds (I don't have access to wxbell anymore but some other sites show a pretty long duration 6+ hrs of gusts (surface) of 50-75mph verbatim on Euro and GFS) is that overdone I would highly guess yes but it is for sure something to watch. Does bring in some good cold behind it. Don't think theres any way that one can turn into a snow storm. around 19-21st looks like possible coastal, with inland snow?

December 2023 Observations and Discussion GAqd7kmWAAATYB_?format=jpg&name=large

Great call by Niziol on Monday - Polar energy isnt cathing up to the Southern Vort until its over Johnson City Tenn instead of Mississippi!

December 2023 Observations and Discussion Seckha10

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Post by heehaw453 Wed Dec 06, 2023 9:49 am

Flurries in the air. Second observed snowfall in a week (a coating with the first). What's going on here Shocked Shocked Shocked

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Post by kalleg Wed Dec 06, 2023 9:53 am

A few lazy flakes drifting down in New Hope, 35*

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