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December 2023 Observations and Discussion

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December 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 9 Empty Re: December 2023 Observations and Discussion

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sat Dec 16, 2023 5:02 pm

heehaw453 wrote:Central Park +3.8 temps for December as of 12/15. It will be ~+5 in a few days. I expect end of month to run at least +2.5. When we lost AO support and have no established cold air that is expected.

December 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 9 Cpk11

And what most people overlook is the normals that we compare it against which are now the 1991 to 2020 30 year period are way above the norm from the period of 1951 to 1980, or any other 30 year average you want to pick previous to this one.

If we compared it to the normal then it would be about 6 1/2° above normal, sad to think about that. We just live in a time where December is just mophing into an extended fall month.

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Post by heehaw453 Sat Dec 16, 2023 7:53 pm

2009 since last white Christmas in Central Park. It's ~9 days away so I shouldn't be too presumptuous on the streak continuing but I feel pretty confident it does.

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Post by weatherwatchermom Sun Dec 17, 2023 12:14 pm

53* calm before the storm..

Lt rain just started 1:15


Last edited by weatherwatchermom on Sun Dec 17, 2023 1:20 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by heehaw453 Sun Dec 17, 2023 12:27 pm

I am premature with even pondering this as the month has not played out yet but here goes.

Cases where CPK had no measurable snowfall in December
It's occurred 16 times since 1900
Average snowfall for the remainder of the season ~14" std 8.75 90th percentile 23.35 (90% less than this)
Largest snowfall rest of season 32.8 occurred during the Super Nino of 2016 when 27.5 occurred in historic blizzard. Take that outlier out and it's 12.8" average with 7.4" std

Cases where CPK had (>= .1" and <= 1") (some measurable snowfall but no more than 1")
It's occurred 25 times since 1900
Average snowfall for remainder of the season ~22.5" std ~14.6" 90th percentile 46.38 (90% less than this)
Largest snowfall remainder of season 53.2" 1907 there was .3" in December
Honorable mentions to above 50.7" 1978 there was .4" in December and 50.3" 2015 there was 1" in December

So I'm a bit superstitious and there's enough data to back up that IMO. If it blanks the entire month the data suggests to expect anomalously low snow fall for the season. However there is some hope if there is some measurable snowfall.

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Post by kalleg Sun Dec 17, 2023 1:08 pm

Light rain in New Hope, a bit foggy, not even a breeze in the trees, 52*
Standing by for what's on the way...

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Dec 19, 2023 2:37 pm

The Christmas Eve and Day forecast is looking ok. No snow, unfortunately Sad

But I think it will be clear with temps in the 40's for most. May push low 50's central/coastal NJ.

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Post by heehaw453 Wed Dec 20, 2023 7:36 am

Low was 26.5 IMBY

Central Park +5.1 as of 12/19. Today they went below freezing (30) for first time this December and third time at or below freezing this December. Probably looking at > +2.5 as it will cool down last few days of December there. Not the torch of December 2015 Super Nino by any stretch but AN nonetheless. That December CPK didn't even get to freezing once in December and it was +12 on temps. Perspective I guess...

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Post by SENJsnowman Wed Dec 20, 2023 7:45 am

heehaw453 wrote:Low was 26.5 IMBY

Central Park +5.1 as of 12/19. Today they went below freezing (30) for first time this December and third time at or below freezing this December. Probably looking at > +2.5 as it will cool down last few days of December there. Not the torch of December 2015 Super Nino by any stretch but AN nonetheless. That December CPK didn't even get to freezing once in December and it was +12 on temps. Perspective I guess...

And that was also the same December ‘torch’ that a month later blessed NYC and the entire tri-state area with the MOAB blizzard of Jan ‘16…

…a harbinger?

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Post by GreyBeard Thu Dec 21, 2023 12:58 pm

Currently 40° with a cloudless sky. Today is the winter solstice, the shortest day of the year, with Winter officially arriving at precisely 10:27 PM. Tomorrow will be the first full day of winter. So in the immortal words of Karen Carpenter...


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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Thu Dec 21, 2023 2:02 pm

A forecast high of 37° today which looks like it will be correct and a forecast low of 17° tonight.

Seems cold compared to what has been but the average high today is 37° and the average low is 19°. As always remember those are as compared to the 30 year average from 1991 to 2020 which is way above the 30 year averages I grew up with. Someone please try to tell me it's not getting warmer? It doesn't mean it won't snow again and there won't be cold periods again, but not nearly as often as it used to be and forget about ice-skating in December now it's almost forgotten.
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Post by amugs Thu Dec 21, 2023 5:55 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:A forecast high of 37° today which looks like it will be correct and a forecast low of 17° tonight.

Seems cold compared to what has been but the average high today is 37° and the average low is 19°. As always remember those are as compared to the 30 year average from 1991 to 2020 which is way above the 30 year averages I grew up with. Someone please try to tell me it's not getting warmer? It doesn't mean it won't snow again and there won't be cold periods again, but not nearly as often as it used to be and forget about ice-skating in December now it's almost forgotten.

In your backyard and there are other areas that have warmed a bit, yes. The climate is always changing and with a megantic pole reversal incoming, well it is happening and has been for teh past 20 yeasr now, the Grand Solar Miniumum and Soalr influences get use to many extremes and record setting ones - cold, heat, storms, hail, rains and floods, snow etc. Many areas are well below normal as well - the Asian conintent for one is and has been getting murdred by the cold and snow. BUT that doesn't matter a world away when in your back yard is how we all measure. Or lack there of the past few winters for sure.

Tonight = welcome to winter

December 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 9 GB574fxWwAAED-H?format=png&name=900x900

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Post by Radz Fri Dec 22, 2023 5:05 am

21* this morning, feels good!
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Post by weatherwatchermom Fri Dec 22, 2023 7:03 am

I second Radz!! 25* low this morning!!
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Post by heehaw453 Fri Dec 22, 2023 7:28 am

Low 18.5 today. CPK hit 25 at 7 AM. It does actually get cold in the city when there's actual cold air pushing down.

December 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 9 Coldai11

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Post by amugs Fri Dec 22, 2023 8:30 am

20* here tis morning!!
BRRRRR!

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Post by dkodgis Fri Dec 22, 2023 8:46 am

17 here at 6. Coldest temp comes mostly at 5:45 am. Mostly.
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Dec 22, 2023 9:22 am

I live on a heat island. 30 degrees

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Post by dkodgis Sat Dec 23, 2023 6:08 am

19 degrees at 5:30 this morning. The dog is ready for her day. Not me. The dog
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Post by amugs Sat Dec 23, 2023 8:03 am

23* here brrrrr.

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Post by SENJsnowman Sat Dec 23, 2023 8:29 am

A balmy 37* degrees at the Shore. 🌴🌞

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Post by amugs Sat Dec 23, 2023 9:13 am

Just some light flurries!!! Xmas Miracle.

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Post by docstox12 Sat Dec 23, 2023 10:36 am

32 ,cloudy calm winds.Got that snow feeling with the cold which makes the Christmas mood good!!
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Dec 23, 2023 11:30 am

amugs wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:A forecast high of 37° today which looks like it will be correct and a forecast low of 17° tonight.

Seems cold compared to what has been but the average high today is 37° and the average low is 19°. As always remember those are as compared to the 30 year average from 1991 to 2020 which is way above the 30 year averages I grew up with. Someone please try to tell me it's not getting warmer? It doesn't mean it won't snow again and there won't be cold periods again, but not nearly as often as it used to be and forget about ice-skating in December now it's almost forgotten.

In your backyard and there are other areas that have warmed a bit, yes. The climate is always changing and with a megantic pole reversal incoming, well it is happening and has been for teh past 20 yeasr now, the Grand Solar Miniumum and Soalr influences get use to many extremes and record setting ones - cold, heat,  storms, hail, rains and floods, snow etc.  Many areas are well below normal as well - the Asian conintent for one is and has been getting murdred by the cold and snow. BUT that doesn't matter a world away when in your back yard is how we all measure. Or lack there of the past few winters for sure.

Tonight = welcome to winter

December 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 9 GB574fxWwAAED-H?format=png&name=900x900
There is absoluterly global warming, i know it is a hot button issue but no one can disagree that the globe isn't warming. I think the big argument that gets so many upset is whether or not it was caused by us and if we could stop it. I am not going to comment on that part.It was somewhere back around 2009 that you could walk on the ice at tibbettes brook parks pond/lake in Yonkers. Since then not even a glaze the sign always says no skating, the sign has a little flap for yes and no. its probably rusted shut by now since no has been flipped so long lol
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Dec 23, 2023 11:36 am

Seeing two possible times on GFS rthat it COULD snow if cold was there but not sure it will be. a LP on 28th and then again around new years but 06z had that ione way ots. Of course thats far off and a lot could change. I think 28th will be rain but new years time frame could be interesting. Happy holidays everyone!
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Post by heehaw453 Sat Dec 23, 2023 4:23 pm

Records in Hartford CT go back to 1905. This is the only the the third time (previous two below) no measurable snowfall has yet to be recorded this deep into the season. It's quite possible they go to January before getting on the board. That seems incredible but is it though after experiencing last season?

                     
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December 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 9 Hartfo10

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sat Dec 23, 2023 5:00 pm

heehaw453 wrote:Records in Hartford CT go back to 1905. This is the only the the third time (previous two below) no measurable snowfall has yet to be recorded this deep into the season. It's quite possible they go to January before getting on the board. That seems incredible but is it though after experiencing last season?

                     
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December 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 9 Hartfo10

Hartford very similar average seasonal snowfall and temperatures to Orange County and most parts of the HV. It's nice to know, misery loves company.
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Dec 23, 2023 5:32 pm

CP I love snow clearly not as much as you but try to rnjoy the holiday. Be greatful we are alive so many much more aweful things going on in the world.
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