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December 2023 Observations and Discussion

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December 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 10 Empty Re: December 2023 Observations and Discussion

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sat Dec 23, 2023 5:00 pm

heehaw453 wrote:Records in Hartford CT go back to 1905. This is the only the the third time (previous two below) no measurable snowfall has yet to be recorded this deep into the season. It's quite possible they go to January before getting on the board. That seems incredible but is it though after experiencing last season?

                     
2006-2007
1927-1928

December 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 10 Hartfo10

Hartford very similar average seasonal snowfall and temperatures to Orange County and most parts of the HV. It's nice to know, misery loves company.

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December 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 10 Empty Re: December 2023 Observations and Discussion

Post by jmanley32 Sat Dec 23, 2023 5:32 pm

CP I love snow clearly not as much as you but try to rnjoy the holiday. Be greatful we are alive so many much more aweful things going on in the world.

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December 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 10 Empty Re: December 2023 Observations and Discussion

Post by docstox12 Sun Dec 24, 2023 5:53 am

32 degrees, cloudy,calm winds. Possible FR up to 10 am in showers.

To all in the NJ Strong community, the merriest of Christmases!
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December 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 10 Empty Re: December 2023 Observations and Discussion

Post by dkodgis Sun Dec 24, 2023 7:03 am

Same to you doc, and to the board. Here 32, with flurries

December 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 10 Img_6910
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December 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 10 Empty Re: December 2023 Observations and Discussion

Post by amugs Sun Dec 24, 2023 10:14 am

As SROC, Hee Haw, RB have been saying, don't punt December.  Tjis could be a minor snowstorm if it plays out as GEFS show.
Medium Range here not LR.

December 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 10 Gchqgt10

_________________
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AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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December 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 10 Empty Re: December 2023 Observations and Discussion

Post by heehaw453 Sun Dec 24, 2023 11:37 am

For ELI/SNE the threat is shown well on GFS.

Two air masses clashing, steep ridge, strong ULL with polar get infusing cold air in. The threat is feasible IMO for eastern zones.

December 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 10 Eli11

December 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 10 Eli12

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December 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 10 Empty Re: December 2023 Observations and Discussion

Post by jmanley32 Sun Dec 24, 2023 9:09 pm

As long as it does not come on the 29th around 1pm as I will be in eastern CT at the fams. Probably leaving around 1pm. I can handle driving in a light snow, even heavy but would prefer not to.
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December 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 10 Empty Re: December 2023 Observations and Discussion

Post by sroc4 Mon Dec 25, 2023 9:24 am

I was debating “weather” to post this in banter or observations thread. I decided here because the image below pretty much sums up most of our observations over the last few years.

I hope everyone has a very Merry Christmas….Buon Natale!!

December 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 10 Img_7211

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
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December 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 10 Empty Re: December 2023 Observations and Discussion

Post by dkodgis Mon Dec 25, 2023 10:06 am

That’s funny. I especially like the “You are here”. A good chuckle.
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December 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 10 Empty Re: December 2023 Observations and Discussion

Post by SENJsnowman Mon Dec 25, 2023 11:21 am

sroc4 wrote:I was debating “weather” to post this in banter or observations thread. I decided here because the image below pretty much sums up most of our observations over the last few years.

I hope everyone has a very Merry Christmas….Buon Natale!!

December 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 10 Img_7211

Oh my goodness, so funny…and so accurate! My personal favorite is #1, and #2, and really #3-6 also.

Merry Christmas to all and to all an actually and imminently occurring pattern change for the better!!!

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December 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 10 Empty Re: December 2023 Observations and Discussion

Post by docstox12 Mon Dec 25, 2023 12:10 pm

sroc4 wrote:I was debating “weather” to post this in banter or observations thread. I decided here because the image below pretty much sums up most of our observations over the last few years.

I hope everyone has a very Merry Christmas….Buon Natale!!

December 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 10 Img_7211

This chart is the bread and butter for OTI when masses of confused and disappointed Mainlanders come flocking in!

45 degrees, partly cloudy and calm winds.Nice safe driving day today.My relatives due in 45 minutes for Christmas dinner.Enjoy all and God Bless!
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December 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 10 Empty Re: December 2023 Observations and Discussion

Post by dkodgis Mon Dec 25, 2023 12:27 pm

I want to add 13a. “Read The Ode of Othelia” dramatically, with gravitas, and hope for the best.
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December 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 10 Empty Re: December 2023 Observations and Discussion

Post by heehaw453 Tue Dec 26, 2023 9:30 am

Central Park running 4.3 AN temps as of Christmas Day. It's very likely ~ 4.5 AN for the month. That exceeded my worst case of +3 without AO support. It's also looking increasing likely that there will be no measurable snowfall for the second consecutive December there.

We will be challenging the December futility stats this year more than likely. What does that mean? If past performance is any indicator expect < 20"  for the remainder of the season at CPK


Last edited by heehaw453 on Tue Dec 26, 2023 9:43 am; edited 1 time in total

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December 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 10 Empty Re: December 2023 Observations and Discussion

Post by dkodgis Tue Dec 26, 2023 9:38 am

and leave it to me to point out the one cloud in the sky. Each period of time there is above freezing temps, there is moisture. Each period of time there is below 32 like in the 20s, there is no moisture.

This from a non-knowledgeable person with a food pyramid of pizza and beer
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December 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 10 Empty Re: December 2023 Observations and Discussion

Post by heehaw453 Tue Dec 26, 2023 11:38 am

I don't have the stats, but not sure the last time NNE mountains had no base of snow as we approach January.  Also Marquette (UP Michigan) where they average ~ 200"/year (40" in December)  December 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 10 1f625

December 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 10 Snowde15

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December 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 10 Empty Re: December 2023 Observations and Discussion

Post by docstox12 Tue Dec 26, 2023 2:21 pm

heehaw453 wrote:I don't have the stats, but not sure the last time NNE mountains had no base of snow as we approach January.  Also Marquette (UP Michigan) where they average ~ 200"/year (40" in December)  December 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 10 1f625

December 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 10 Snowde15

42 degrees, mostly cloudy, calm winds damp and raw.

That map says it all heehaw on the terrible (so far) snow totals in our area.I've been concerned since Dec 1 of the pattern since Nov 1 that has produced abundant moisture but nothing as far as snow.Miserable week for snow lovers coming as well.Hoping for a better January.
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December 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 10 Empty Re: December 2023 Observations and Discussion

Post by Radz Wed Dec 27, 2023 5:05 am

42* and foggy- miserable late December weather
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December 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 10 Empty Re: December 2023 Observations and Discussion

Post by docstox12 Wed Dec 27, 2023 8:41 am

40 degrees, light rain, light fog.Miserable week for snow lovers but driving will be good for the New Years Holiday.
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December 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 10 Empty Re: December 2023 Observations and Discussion

Post by weatherwatchermom Wed Dec 27, 2023 8:44 am

I wish I had my phone on me last night when Dash walked out into the fog to go potty that surrounded us.He completely disappeared....all I could think of was the movie "The Mist"...I locked the door while I waited for him to come back.. Very Happy currently miserable and gloomy at 44*
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December 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 10 Empty Re: December 2023 Observations and Discussion

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Wed Dec 27, 2023 10:59 am

We had always talked about moving south after retirement. Now that a sustained winter no longer exists in most of the northeast it will make that move much easier. We basically live in a Virginia climate now much to my chagrin. .
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Wed Dec 27, 2023 11:21 am

Great snow map of the white Christmas, or lack thereof, in the continental United States this year. Other than the usual high mountain spots in the west, almost the entire country had no snow cover.
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December 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 10 Empty Re: December 2023 Observations and Discussion

Post by docstox12 Wed Dec 27, 2023 12:17 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:We had always talked about moving south after retirement. Now that a sustained winter no longer exists in most of the northeast it will make that move much easier. We basically live in a Virginia climate now much to my chagrin. .

46 degrees, light rain, calm wind.
I feel after reading this post, my good man, there is a need for a virtual intervention here.
You do realize that the winter after you move south, Central park will record over 150 inches of snow that started falling November 15th and was OTG until the end of April.That's 150 inches UNDERMEASURED, mind you.I, up here close to you, will have over 250 inches.Are you willing to submit to the torture of reading all the happy winter posts of our crew here while you wallow in 80 degree temperatures with sand in your sneakers ducking Palmetto bugs? You KNOW that is your fate so rather than risking that ,stay put and endure a lifetime of miserable winters up here because that will be easier to handle than what is in store for you if you move!!
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December 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 10 Empty Re: December 2023 Observations and Discussion

Post by heehaw453 Wed Dec 27, 2023 12:56 pm

December as of 12/26 +4.5 AN temps at CPK. Based on remaining few days there's no reason to think +5 isn't feasible. CPK cannot catch 2015 super torch, but very comfortable thinking second warmest December on record is a lock. As an aside that's 150+ years of record keeping...

Top 3 warmest December mean temperatures
2015 50.8
2023 44.2
2001 44.1

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Post by dkodgis Wed Dec 27, 2023 1:00 pm

Heehaw, when you show 2001, is that 2000-2001 winter or 2001 as a 12 month period, Jan 2001 through Dec 20001
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Post by heehaw453 Wed Dec 27, 2023 1:04 pm

dkodgis wrote:Heehaw, when you show 2001, is that  2000-2001 winter or 2001 as a 12 month period, Jan 2001  through Dec 20001

Hi Damian. That is December of the year specified.

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December 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 10 Empty Re: December 2023 Observations and Discussion

Post by jmanley32 Wed Dec 27, 2023 11:25 pm

Hi all, enjoying my time off until the 2nd, havent checked in in a day or two but many people are getting un hinged. But I believe when I did so right before xmas all I got was sarcasm and that I was being a downer...just saying. This is a bleek looking winter IMO, maybe it changes maybe it doesn't. But the feel of the forum ATM is of absolute pain. CP don't move, because it will suddenly make for a epic winter topping all winters in hx. Then again,,,ya go move yes please do actually lol (jk).

Just realized 21 more posts and I crack 20k...do I get some sort of celebration for the most posts of everyone? lol
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December 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 10 Empty Re: December 2023 Observations and Discussion

Post by weatherwatchermom Thu Dec 28, 2023 1:09 am

Heavy rain just woke me up. Flood watch for area...
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