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Feb 2024 Observations and Discussion

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phil155
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Feb 2024 Observations and Discussion Empty Feb 2024 Observations and Discussion

Post by amugs Thu Feb 01, 2024 8:15 am

Folks,

We have made it to the shortest calendar month of the year even if it is a leap year LOL!!
What will this month bring?
What will the Groundhogs: Phil, Chuck and Emily have to say for our areas??
Feb 2024 Observations and Discussion Punxsutawney_Phil_2018_%28cropped%29

31* this morning with some patchy frost as I made my way to the Highlands.
I heard the birds chirping this morning - amazing, right on cue for 2-1 for my area each year!!!

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by amugs Thu Feb 01, 2024 8:27 am

AND we gain the most amount of sunlight as we move through this month - gaining 2 minutes per day then 3 minutes per day once we get to Feb 15th - this is when the sun angle starts to kick in for snowstorms making it harder for the snow stick if it is light and marginal temperatures during the day.
We are slowly coming out of low Vitamin D season peeps!!

For NYC
Sunrise Sunset
Feb 1 7:06 am ↑ (112°) 5:13 pm ↑ (248°)

Feb 29 6:30 am ↑ (99°) 5:46 pm ↑ (261°)

Gaining ~ one hour and 7 minutes over the course of the month if my math is correct LOL!!

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Feb 01, 2024 8:39 am

Thanks Mugs!! Our temps have already been marginal in storms this year. Adding sun angle into the mix kinda BLOWS! But a favorable wind direction and track of mid-level lows will always beat sun angle. So let's see how it plays out.

Here are my usual reflection maps. I don't remember if I posted December.

Precip departures from normal

DEC

Feb 2024 Observations and Discussion Dec23PDeptNRCC

JAN

Feb 2024 Observations and Discussion YearPDeptNRCC

Temp departures from normal

DEC

Feb 2024 Observations and Discussion Dec23TDeptNRCC

JAN

Feb 2024 Observations and Discussion YearTDeptNRCC

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Post by hyde345 Thu Feb 01, 2024 1:08 pm

It's been a mild winter so far no doubt. Up here in the MHV January wound up 5.5 above normal after a December that was 7.2 above normal. We managed 15.5 inches of snow in January which is average for the month. Feb. looks like it may finish above normal as well thanks to the first 10-14 days. I'm hoping for an active and colder second half of the month continuing into early March. Fingers crossed.
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Post by weatherwatchermom Thu Feb 01, 2024 1:08 pm

The sun came out for half and hour the dogs ran to the sun spot it was so funny I guess they noticed as well and then I took us all outside to feel it!! It was 49.* Now mostly cloudy again and temp dropped to 47* but we had a few min of sun!!
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Post by docstox12 Fri Feb 02, 2024 5:58 am

36 degrees and something new and different.....cloudy.Calm winds.Looks like the sun comes back Sat, Sun and Mon with fair weather.
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Feb 2024 Observations and Discussion Empty Re: Feb 2024 Observations and Discussion

Post by dkodgis Fri Feb 02, 2024 8:55 am

Feb 2024 Observations and Discussion Img_4910
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Post by frank 638 Fri Feb 02, 2024 9:15 am

Happy Groundhog Day unfortunately I don’t believe it that we’re having an early spring. We all know what’s gonna happen when we get into late March April May it’s cold raw rainy conditions then we get into summer it’s hot

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Post by docstox12 Sat Feb 03, 2024 8:43 am

29 degrees, sunny (glory be) and calm winds.The sun and blue skies drove the dark clouds away!
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Post by weatherwatchermom Sat Feb 03, 2024 12:23 pm

Feb 2024 Observations and Discussion Img_2117
Beautiful site!! I might have to drive with the top down..cold be damned!

UPDATE:a little chilly but wow felt wonderful flying down the highway with the wind blowing and the sun shining!!
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Post by heehaw453 Mon Feb 05, 2024 9:40 am

Nova Scotia (particularly NW areas) is ground zero for a historic blizzard that closed off its ULL and cutoff. It's been stuck under a block for several days. Parts of the island have received over 3' of snow with the system and likely another 1'+ still to come. Winds at time well over 60 mph so you can imagine some of the drifts exceeding 20'. It's that same Omega block that prevented our eastern zones from a major snowstorm.





Feb 2024 Observations and Discussion Novasc10

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Post by aiannone Mon Feb 05, 2024 1:09 pm

Hopefully the mid month pattern change occurs because right now you can really feel the strong sun and now the early flowers are popping up

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Post by billg315 Mon Feb 05, 2024 1:17 pm

Sun is definitely getting stronger, can start to feel it if you're out in the sun. And can really feel it now if your car is parked in the sun for a few hours even on a cold day.

Of course this will eventually herald "sun-angle" issues with daytime storms later this month and March. But my thought on that has always been that the sun usually only hinders marginal events anyway. If you get a real snowstorm, it is going to overcome the sun angle issues anyway.
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Post by jurzdevil Mon Feb 05, 2024 1:51 pm

aiannone wrote:Hopefully the mid month pattern change occurs because right now you can really feel the strong sun and now the early flowers are popping up

this is going to start messing with the maple trees too. last year was already a couple weeks early for the sap to start running and this warm stretch might just start the flow even earlier.

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Post by docstox12 Fri Feb 09, 2024 6:20 am

30 degrees, clear , calm winds.On the way to 53 today, a heat wave.
NWS improving here, rain to snow late Monday night into Tuesday morning.Temps are colder after the storm so may get a snowpack back.Trend is our friend right now.
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Post by crippo84 Fri Feb 09, 2024 7:59 am

Is anyone able to comment on the chance for rain tomorrow? Things seemed like they were looking good up until yesterday. Trying to decide if a hike is doable or if I should skip that and head straight for the brewery...
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Post by 1190ftalt Tue Feb 13, 2024 11:24 pm

Snowing hard at 11:20 in the PM, sticking to everything, 30 degreees, didn’t expect this!
     Good Luck !Feb 2024 Observations and Discussion C3a35210
Feb 2024 Observations and Discussion 94b19b10
Feb 2024 Observations and Discussion Fe9a8510
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Post by dkodgis Tue Feb 13, 2024 11:28 pm

Same. 31 and driveway is coated
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Post by dkodgis Tue Feb 13, 2024 11:29 pm

Feb 2024 Observations and Discussion Img_1614
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Wed Feb 14, 2024 12:01 am

Totals from todays storm.

Lot's of 1 foot plus amounts North of the city. Most places there were pegged for 1-3 inches by the models at this time last night.

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&product=PNS&issuedby=OKX
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Post by weatherwatchermom Wed Feb 14, 2024 5:29 am

dkodgis wrote:Feb 2024 Observations and Discussion Img_1614
Is that whole road your driveway??!! What a Face
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Post by weatherwatchermom Wed Feb 14, 2024 5:32 am

Currently 31* was wondering where the winds were yesterday..they are here now 21 mph and the gust that just woke me up was 30..
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Post by docstox12 Wed Feb 14, 2024 6:19 am

25 degrees, clear, windy.Howling winds last night woke me up.
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Post by dkodgis Wed Feb 14, 2024 7:25 am

Mom, yes. It is my driveway. 225 feet.
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Feb 2024 Observations and Discussion Empty Re: Feb 2024 Observations and Discussion

Post by Frank_Wx Wed Feb 14, 2024 8:22 am

The next potential threat of snow comes Saturday.

This will be a baroclinic driven system where we have a deep arctic air mass clashing with a sub-tropical one.

Feb 2024 Observations and Discussion Gfs_z500a_namer_14

Check out this western ridge extension. Over the last couple of days we have seen this ridge trend stronger. In tandem with a -NAO (notice ridging over Greenland), its causing the Polar Vortex to stretch south and for the polar jet to sink into the eastern CONUS. We have the right signals. A -EPO, +PNA and -NAO.

Feb 2024 Observations and Discussion Screenshot-2024-02-14-081447

A look at the 500mb energy shows the pieces needed to come together for a storm to develop. We're tracking the sub-tropical energy, the pacific energy and the polar energy. These pieces are trying to consolidate near the Mid-Atlantic and models show a formidable storm system. Whether it comes up the coast or stays to our south is the question. Additionally, the size of the precip field, aka, how far north the snow gets, depends on dynamics and mid level lift. As of now, this is a system that favors southern portions of our area from DC-Philly to SNJ and as far north as Trenton.

Here is the Icon model's depiction of the snow threat. The timing is early Saturday morning (after Midnight) to 8am.

Feb 2024 Observations and Discussion Image-thumb-png-9e37f86d1cb22b54870754d998f5ad6e

There is a CHANCE, we can see a better consolidation of all these piece of upper energy which could yield a much larger storm system. The timing for this one would be more Sunday into Monday. Not many models show this happening right now, but based on what I see aloft, its something we should keep an eye on.

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