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Feb 2024 Observations and Discussion

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phil155
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Feb 2024 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Empty Re: Feb 2024 Observations and Discussion

Post by heehaw453 Thu Feb 15, 2024 8:48 am

13.3 was the low. Nice snow pack to cool the air.

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Post by heehaw453 Thu Feb 15, 2024 8:52 am

06Z Euro. There's more interaction with the subtropical jet. If that continues folks will be looking at 3-6" with this system.

Feb 2024 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Euro157

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Feb 15, 2024 8:59 am

heehaw453 wrote:06Z Euro. There's more interaction with the subtropical jet. If that continues folks will be looking at 3-6" with this system.

Feb 2024 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Euro157
blanket area or what locations approx?
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Post by sroc4 Thu Feb 15, 2024 9:09 am

jmanley32 wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:06Z Euro. There's more interaction with the subtropical jet. If that continues folks will be looking at 3-6" with this system.

Feb 2024 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Euro157
blanket area or what locations approx?


How far N precip makes it is still up in the air. As of now points just N of the Bronx, and 5-6 miles east and west of the Hudson River and points a mile or two N of the Tarry town area are likely to see close to 6". In between those locations its going to rain. At least thats how it looks to me Very Happy

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
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Feb 2024 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Empty Re: Feb 2024 Observations and Discussion

Post by aiannone Thu Feb 15, 2024 9:11 am

NWS Upton latest thoughts:

Another low will move off the southern Mid Atlantic coast late
Fri night and pass well south of Long Island into early
Saturday afternoon, but perhaps still close enough to produce a
period of light snow, more so across the NYC metro area and
Long Island where an inch of accumulation appears likely.

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Feb 2024 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Empty Re: Feb 2024 Observations and Discussion

Post by billg315 Thu Feb 15, 2024 9:40 am

Morning models for Friday night/Saturday morning system:
GFS is too far south for much snow north of the South Jersey area. Would bring a nice 1-3" snowfall across South Jersey primarily south of the AC Expressway, with a coating to an inch for the rest of the state. 2-4" across the Delmarva.
EURO is further north and brings a statewide 2-4" type event from I-80 south with an inch or so north of that.

The 12z NAM just came in and is coming in on the side of the GFS at the moment maybe a tick further north with the 1-3' up to Route 70 (If you've never lived in South Jersey, you probably don't even know where that is but is farther north than the AC Expressway roughly Philly to Lakewood).

Prospects for accumulating snow right now: Advantage far South Jersey.
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Feb 2024 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Empty Re: Feb 2024 Observations and Discussion

Post by heehaw453 Thu Feb 15, 2024 9:56 am

Feel like this has 3-6" written all over it especially along and SE of I95. Based on h7,h850 temps I would multiply by 15 ish

Feb 2024 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Regem10

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Feb 2024 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Empty Re: Feb 2024 Observations and Discussion

Post by jmanley32 Thu Feb 15, 2024 11:22 am

sroc4 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:06Z Euro. There's more interaction with the subtropical jet. If that continues folks will be looking at 3-6" with this system.

Feb 2024 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Euro157
blanket area or what locations approx?


How far N precip makes it is still up in the air.  As of now points just N of the Bronx, and 5-6 miles east and west of the Hudson River and points a mile or two N of the Tarry town area are likely to see close to 6".  In between those locations its going to rain.  At least thats how it looks to me  Very Happy
haha, you almost had me till I put together the mapping in my head (I def know it's not gonna rain). but in all seriousness can the 3-6 get into the NYC metro area, that appears right now to be really far south of here. We track.
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Feb 2024 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Empty Re: Feb 2024 Observations and Discussion

Post by jmanley32 Thu Feb 15, 2024 11:24 am

I did not read the posts after yours scott, I see the answer as of rn.
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Feb 2024 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Empty Re: Feb 2024 Observations and Discussion

Post by MattyICE Thu Feb 15, 2024 12:15 pm

I know it’s a different setup than last time - but it just FEELS like there’s been a persistent de-amping trend all winter as storms approach. Definitely hope the RGEMs more northern solution works out - but I’m setting my expectations pretty low north of 78 in nj into the general metro area. I mean like a slushy inch…maybe 2. More would be nice but there is a limit to how far northward a SLP can trend or a precip shield can trend. While there will be great ratios I can imagine there not being a lot of QPF or intensity and some issues with virga. Whatever CAN fall will stick though as temps and timing are favorable.

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Post by amugs Thu Feb 15, 2024 12:27 pm

Models have been awful this these last few storms for many areas not just ours

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WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Feb 2024 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Empty Re: Feb 2024 Observations and Discussion

Post by heehaw453 Thu Feb 15, 2024 1:30 pm

Euro would be a nice event (3-6") south I78

Feb 2024 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Euroqp10

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Post by heehaw453 Thu Feb 15, 2024 2:08 pm

EPS TTN on south is where the axis of heavier precip is. A nice event for those folks.

Feb 2024 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Epsaxo10

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Feb 2024 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Empty Re: Feb 2024 Observations and Discussion

Post by SENJsnowman Thu Feb 15, 2024 2:18 pm

So, the models have this as a Jersey Shore ‘Special’. I put special in quotes there, cuz it just ain’t that special. And the models seems to be split into two camps:

Jersey Shore ‘Special’:
Euro, CMC, RGEM, HRDPS all put 3-4” (@ 10-1 ratio) up and down the Jersey coast. The HRDPS seems to be the most souped up. RGEM brings up to 2” into the boards northern zones as well.

Big Fat Nothing Burger:
GFS, Ikon and 12k NAM all show 1” or less once you reached central Ocean County.

1st pic is RGEM surface map and 2nd pic is HRDPS snowfall map.


Feb 2024 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Img_2715
Feb 2024 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Img_2716


Edit: I have to walk back my editorial there a little bit: 5-6” (which is depicted for the Shore on both maps above at 15/20-1 ratio) would certainly feel special if it were to happen.

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Post by heehaw453 Thu Feb 15, 2024 2:34 pm

SNEJ there's upside potential with this as shown with the 12Z Euro. There is a n/s partial phase as the mid-levels approach the coast.  Watch the 850's close-off as a result. Trust me when I tell you that if that phase happens early enough your area is going to get clipped with heavy snow. Like 6-8" worth. Big IF, but this can bust big time on the upside.



Feb 2024 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Europa10

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Feb 2024 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Empty Re: Feb 2024 Observations and Discussion

Post by heehaw453 Thu Feb 15, 2024 3:34 pm

The 18Z NAM is aggressive! Getting a kick from the n/s as the L approaches the coast and some better STJ interaction. Getting a feeling some folks are going to do quite well with this. Sucks I'm not around for this one...

Feb 2024 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Nam1810

Feb 2024 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Nam18210

Feb 2024 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Nam18310

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Feb 2024 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Empty Re: Feb 2024 Observations and Discussion

Post by billg315 Thu Feb 15, 2024 3:38 pm

Going to be in South Jersey at the shore this weekend so I'm not opposed to SNJ jackpotting. lol. But hopefully it is nice event statewide and into the NYC/LI area so everyone can freshen up their snowpack! I think everyone would be happy with a 2-4" event after Tuesday. Anything above that from a system like this is a big bonus.
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Post by docstox12 Thu Feb 15, 2024 3:45 pm

heehaw453 wrote:The 18Z NAM is aggressive! Getting a kick from the n/s as the L approaches the coast and some better STJ interaction. Getting a feeling some folks are going to do quite well with this. Sucks I'm not around for this one...

Feb 2024 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Nam1810

Feb 2024 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Nam18210

Feb 2024 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Nam18310

Looks nice for the Central NJ and Shore folks and LI too!!!Enjoy!
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Feb 2024 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Empty Re: Feb 2024 Observations and Discussion

Post by SoulSingMG Thu Feb 15, 2024 3:53 pm

Hot off the press from Mount Holly:

Feb 2024 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Img_3011
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Post by heehaw453 Thu Feb 15, 2024 4:27 pm

18Z Icon.  Very aggressive.

Feb 2024 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 18zico10

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Feb 2024 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Empty Re: Feb 2024 Observations and Discussion

Post by billg315 Thu Feb 15, 2024 4:44 pm

NWS Mt Holly for SNJ:
.WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AMEST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 3 inches with locally higher amounts up to 4 inches.

* WHERE...Portions of central and northern Delaware, northeast Maryland and southern New Jersey.

* WHEN...From 10 PM Friday to 10 AM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Periods of light to moderate snowfall is expected Friday night into Saturday. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1. &&
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Feb 2024 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Empty Re: Feb 2024 Observations and Discussion

Post by SENJsnowman Thu Feb 15, 2024 4:49 pm

heehaw453 wrote:18Z Icon.  Very aggressive.

Feb 2024 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 18zico10


That’s at least 3 models now (Ikon, RGEM and HRDPS) that shoot a streak of heavy snow west to east across Monmouth County. Basically coming down my chimney like Santa. Sadly though, we still have over 24 hours before kickoff, so no reason to just assume that will hold. Still, a beautiful sight to behold and plenty of cause for cautious optimism!

For all of you more north (which is the vast majority of the forum), we’ve all seen how these southern specials tend to expand their precip shield N and W at game time, no matter how much the models agree before hand that it won’t happen. Especially for southern and eastern LI.

Time to track! What a Face

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Post by SENJsnowman Thu Feb 15, 2024 4:52 pm

billg315 wrote:NWS Mt Holly for SNJ:
.WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AMEST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 3 inches with locally higher amounts up to 4 inches.

* WHERE...Portions of central and northern Delaware, northeast Maryland and southern New Jersey.

* WHEN...From 10 PM Friday to 10 AM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Periods of light to moderate snowfall is expected Friday night into Saturday. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1. &&

My Holly is super conservative when forecasting expected snowfall for the Shore. You can always apply a multiplier of 1.5 or 2 to their forecast in terms of what the upside potential is.

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Feb 2024 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Empty Re: Feb 2024 Observations and Discussion

Post by Irish Thu Feb 15, 2024 4:54 pm

What would .59 equate to?
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Feb 2024 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Empty Re: Feb 2024 Observations and Discussion

Post by sroc4 Thu Feb 15, 2024 4:56 pm

Irish wrote:What would .59 equate to?

assuming 10:1 ratio 5.9"
assuming 15-20:1 ratio 8.85-11.8"

S and central NJ will not likely see those higher end ratios IMO.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
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Feb 2024 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Empty Re: Feb 2024 Observations and Discussion

Post by phil155 Thu Feb 15, 2024 6:25 pm

SENJsnowman wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:18Z Icon.  Very aggressive.

Feb 2024 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 18zico10


That’s at least 3 models now (Ikon, RGEM and HRDPS) that shoot a streak of heavy snow west to east across Monmouth County. Basically coming down my chimney like Santa. Sadly though, we still have over 24 hours before kickoff, so no reason to just assume that will hold. Still, a beautiful sight to behold and plenty of cause for cautious optimism!

For all of you more north (which is the vast majority of the forum), we’ve all seen how these southern specials tend to expand their precip shield N and W at game time, no matter how much the models agree before hand that it won’t happen. Especially for southern and eastern LI.

Time to track! What a Face

Even Middlesex County according to this get .44 or so which even at an 8:1 ratio would get 3 inches or so which is ok

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Feb 2024 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Empty Re: Feb 2024 Observations and Discussion

Post by docstox12 Thu Feb 15, 2024 6:39 pm

SENJsnowman wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:18Z Icon.  Very aggressive.

Feb 2024 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 18zico10


That’s at least 3 models now (Ikon, RGEM and HRDPS) that shoot a streak of heavy snow west to east across Monmouth County. Basically coming down my chimney like Santa. Sadly though, we still have over 24 hours before kickoff, so no reason to just assume that will hold. Still, a beautiful sight to behold and plenty of cause for cautious optimism!

For all of you more north (which is the vast majority of the forum), we’ve all seen how these southern specials tend to expand their precip shield N and W at game time, no matter how much the models agree before hand that it won’t happen. Especially for southern and eastern LI.

Time to track! What a Face

It has expanded North, I may squeeze out a few inches at 10:1 ratios, nice snowpack refresh.
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