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Feb 2024 Observations and Discussion

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phil155
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Feb 2024 Observations and Discussion - Page 4 Empty Re: Feb 2024 Observations and Discussion

Post by phil155 Thu Feb 15, 2024 6:25 pm

SENJsnowman wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:18Z Icon.  Very aggressive.

Feb 2024 Observations and Discussion - Page 4 18zico10


That’s at least 3 models now (Ikon, RGEM and HRDPS) that shoot a streak of heavy snow west to east across Monmouth County. Basically coming down my chimney like Santa. Sadly though, we still have over 24 hours before kickoff, so no reason to just assume that will hold. Still, a beautiful sight to behold and plenty of cause for cautious optimism!

For all of you more north (which is the vast majority of the forum), we’ve all seen how these southern specials tend to expand their precip shield N and W at game time, no matter how much the models agree before hand that it won’t happen. Especially for southern and eastern LI.

Time to track! What a Face

Even Middlesex County according to this get .44 or so which even at an 8:1 ratio would get 3 inches or so which is ok

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Feb 2024 Observations and Discussion - Page 4 Empty Re: Feb 2024 Observations and Discussion

Post by docstox12 Thu Feb 15, 2024 6:39 pm

SENJsnowman wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:18Z Icon.  Very aggressive.

Feb 2024 Observations and Discussion - Page 4 18zico10


That’s at least 3 models now (Ikon, RGEM and HRDPS) that shoot a streak of heavy snow west to east across Monmouth County. Basically coming down my chimney like Santa. Sadly though, we still have over 24 hours before kickoff, so no reason to just assume that will hold. Still, a beautiful sight to behold and plenty of cause for cautious optimism!

For all of you more north (which is the vast majority of the forum), we’ve all seen how these southern specials tend to expand their precip shield N and W at game time, no matter how much the models agree before hand that it won’t happen. Especially for southern and eastern LI.

Time to track! What a Face

It has expanded North, I may squeeze out a few inches at 10:1 ratios, nice snowpack refresh.

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Thu Feb 15, 2024 6:50 pm

31.3° and snowing.

I love it when winter actually acts like winter. It's been a rarity the last couple years.
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Post by amugs Thu Feb 15, 2024 7:08 pm

North Tend has been this whole winter.
still 24chours before its starts.
Rations from about CNJ on N will 15:1 to 20:1 I'd say.

Feb 2024 Observations and Discussion - Page 4 1708160400-sXGqGfOEJJY

Feb 2024 Observations and Discussion - Page 4 1708160400-uNaxAVTKIUU

Feb 2024 Observations and Discussion - Page 4 1708160400-QAUDK8dh7Gs

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by amugs Thu Feb 15, 2024 7:37 pm

New Experimental Hi Res Model RRFS that will take over for the 5 SR models starting this spring. It did well with last storm as the EURO crapped the bed bigly!

Feb 2024 Observations and Discussion - Page 4 1708203600-IKxJOBl6PZM

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WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by weatherwatchermom Thu Feb 15, 2024 7:40 pm

Normally I sit back and wait for the snow..but best friends father passed this week and the service is Sat morning...can someone give an idea of the timing? TIA
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Post by 1190ftalt Thu Feb 15, 2024 7:44 pm

Lightly snowing, 29 degrees at 7:35 in the PM sticking to everything, still have 8 inches left from previous snow, amazing the snow shrunk and condensed 7 inches in 2 days!
   Good Luck !Feb 2024 Observations and Discussion - Page 4 D242e210
Feb 2024 Observations and Discussion - Page 4 Ecbdd310
Feb 2024 Observations and Discussion - Page 4 C0995010
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Feb 15, 2024 9:52 pm

amugs wrote:New Experimental Hi Res Model RRFS that will take over for the 5 SR models starting this spring. It did well with last storm as the EURO crapped the bed bigly!

Feb 2024 Observations and Discussion - Page 4 1708203600-IKxJOBl6PZM
So by that at 15-20:1 most areas are looking at warning level snowfall? Replace as in there will be no more NAM, HRRR, SREF etc? Do you buy this cuz this looks kinda crazy compared to all the others.
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Post by Coachgriff Fri Feb 16, 2024 4:22 am

Mercer County has a WWA for 1-4 inches….I always thought it was 1-3 or 2-4….I guess the string of model misses is starting to weigh on Mount Holly..
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Feb 2024 Observations and Discussion - Page 4 Empty Re: Feb 2024 Observations and Discussion

Post by phil155 Fri Feb 16, 2024 5:40 am

Coachgriff wrote:Mercer County has a WWA for 1-4 inches….I always thought it was 1-3 or 2-4….I guess the string of model misses is starting to weigh on Mount Holly..

Same here in Middlesex

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Post by dkodgis Fri Feb 16, 2024 6:20 am

32 degrees but at about 5:30 am what a gust of wind for about a minute. The weather station showed 53 mph. Otherwise a steady 20 with 33 mph gusts as per NWS. Yep. Some “meh” snow forecast for tonight. Of course I’ll take it.
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Post by SENJsnowman Fri Feb 16, 2024 6:49 am

dkodgis wrote:32 degrees but at about 5:30 am what a gust of wind for about a minute. The weather station showed 53 mph. Otherwise a steady 20 with 33 mph gusts as per NWS. Yep. Some “meh” snow forecast for tonight. Of course I’ll take it.

Meh…but I’ll take it.
That about sims it up. Seems like the Dec-mid Jan was all about cutters and rain and mid Jan through Feb has been about weaker southern storms that have sprinkled modest amounts throughout with the only real jackpot actually being N and W in this last storm.

But tonight figures to be the fourth snowfall imby of 2” or more this winter, so that’s a positive for sure. Beats 3 of the last 4 winters for the Shore.


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Post by larryrock72 Fri Feb 16, 2024 7:07 am

I'll take it down here along the coast in southern ocean county NJ. Most times than not while everyone is getting white gold we get a ice cold rain, just like Tuesday. We walk a thin line between rain and snow. Anytime we can get 100% snow with no rain or rain/mix is a win. I hope everyone gets a little something tonight/tomorrow.

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Post by docstox12 Fri Feb 16, 2024 7:22 am

32 degrees, mostly sunny, windy with gusts.
Maybe an inch or two tonight up here.
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Post by amugs Fri Feb 16, 2024 12:12 pm

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Starting to see the new 12z models coming in showing a bump north with slightly higher liquid equivalents and more organized lift. Will be assessing the rest of the 12z guidance and any expansion of the Advisory will occur with the afternoon package.

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Post by Artingerb Fri Feb 16, 2024 2:34 pm

I felt left out on Tuesday at home, only really got 3 or so.
1450' in poconos southern wayne county, hoping this one comes my way with good news Smile

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Post by aiannone Fri Feb 16, 2024 2:35 pm

18Z HRRR What a Face

Feb 2024 Observations and Discussion - Page 4 Qpf_ac18

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Post by docstox12 Tue Feb 20, 2024 6:09 am

12 degrees, I think the lowest morning temp so far here, clear and calm.Looks like rain at the end of the week.Enjoying the remaining snowpack here, around 6 inches still.
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Post by dkodgis Tue Feb 20, 2024 8:02 am

‘Twas 10 here. My expectations for the warm up: sit outside with a beer. The board is welcome to join in about 10 days when it may reach 60. That’s all I got. Holding out for mid March snow.
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Post by billg315 Tue Feb 20, 2024 9:13 am

19* when I got up this morning. Will warm up quickly with the sun up. That late February sun is starting to mean business. Cutting through the snowpack like a hot knife through butter. Or snow. I guess a hot knife would cut through snow also.
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Post by heehaw453 Tue Feb 20, 2024 9:54 am

12.5 was the low. 7 consecutive days with a solid snow pack OTG and a few more at least where there is no direct sunlight exposure. Again when I look at last February this one seems epic.

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Post by Dunnzoo Tue Feb 20, 2024 10:54 am

dkodgis wrote:‘Twas 10 here. My expectations for the warm up:  sit outside with a beer. The board is welcome to join in about 10 days when it may reach 60. That’s all I got.  Holding out for mid March snow.

I think you, me and doc need to meet at the Warwick Winery next week, enjoy the early spring!

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Snowfall winter of 2023-2024  17.5"    

Snowfall winter of 2022-2023       6.0"
Snowfall winter of 2021-2022     17.6"    1" sleet 2/25/22
Snowfall winter of 2020-2021     51.1"
Snowfall winter of 2019-2020       8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by weatherwatchermom Tue Feb 20, 2024 5:27 pm

26* for a low this morning and high 35* for a high today...chilly day but at least sunny
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Post by dkodgis Tue Feb 20, 2024 6:11 pm

I am down with the winery
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Post by weatherwatchermom Thu Feb 22, 2024 3:48 pm

Sunny this morning and early afternoon the gloom is setting in and the chill is in the air. 30 for a low and high 43...good afternoon to sit with the pups... and rain started..still have some snow pack..but sure it will be gone soon.. Sad
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Post by Dunnzoo Thu Feb 22, 2024 4:48 pm

40* and rain has started, sucks for February.

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Snowfall winter of 2023-2024  17.5"    

Snowfall winter of 2022-2023       6.0"
Snowfall winter of 2021-2022     17.6"    1" sleet 2/25/22
Snowfall winter of 2020-2021     51.1"
Snowfall winter of 2019-2020       8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by 1190ftalt Thu Feb 22, 2024 7:20 pm

Snowing real hard at 7:16 in the pm, 33 degrees, not sticking to roads or sidewalks but sticking to the 3 inches of snow still on the ground,
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