Re: Long Range Thread 28.0

[Irish]

Look at the bottom left of screen and see the tremendous sudden warmth over Eastern Australia Waters. That’s a massive monkey wrench in the cog and predictions for the weather pattern this winter that needs to be investigated. Why did the waters warm so incredibly fast? Summations by some and are valid say underwater volcanoes are to be responsible and JB has a map that shows this.



You can also see the Nino weakening and moves west. Only if this was occurring in Sept or Oct. Timing and Space mean everything.

Fascinating GIF.

Why does it seems like ocean temps are above normal EVERYWHERE. Good grief

Global warming?  I know banter.

Def banter  

I think judging by the lack of winter the last few years, all the threads will be banter soon. Unless tracking rain is fun.

  that they will be!  Guys, there's gonna be 3 days this winter where we hit 32 degrees, prepare yourselves!

[heehaw453]

So…uhh I think we may all need to go into hibernation for a couple of weeks based on latest long range projections

I respectfully disagree, Frank. I think that we are going to be in a very active, pseudo-gradient pattern overall starting next week and going through February, and then I think the last week of February through March features an overall better pattern. During the gradient pattern, I think we will be very close to the R/S line, though biased on the cold side.

I’ll elaborate more in the next day or two, but I’m actually kind of optimistic. Gradient patterns can produce in a big way, as long as you’re on the right/cold side of them.

Rb. Any updated thoughts?

[amugs]

@Frank the ocean temps are a massive byproduct of the thermal infusion of the solar influx of flares and CME ejections the past 30  years since we reachws solar maximum and are have been declining towards a solar minimum. Also, as numerous papers have been written and one recent that even NOAA agreed with about the numerous underwater Volcanoes in the ring of fire region, over 10k active. You think they could warm the waters faster than the sun andan? Hell yeah.
 A true cycle of the sun as well factored on this activity and planet that at 11 year intervals and earth cycles, ,Milankovitch ,that run every 100k years and your Dansgaard events that run....every 6&12k years intervals with 1/2 cycles every 3k years.. Last one was 3K years ago and we are n that cycle right now of 3 n 6 k. Not to mention the magnetic reversal of the planet that coincided with these events. Tjis will cause many different effects on our ecosystems as well for the migration of animals will be thrown off in wild ways. Due to the magnetic poles shifting and moving to areas 100' s to future 1k's of miles from the normal magnetic pole. 

Fascinating and buckle up as I have been harping on the planet extremes will only grow bigger and stronger from number to size to strength = storms, amount of precipitation, hail, wild extreme temperatures cold n hot, earthquakes and Volcanoes. 

Does anyone know of the gigantic solar flare emitted from the sun 24 hours ago? Of course not, we may get a very small glancing blow but IF it was earthquake directed we'd have literally 24 more hours of technology advancements before we probably wouldn't.  Not be nhilistic but truthful, even NOAA made mention. It's not a matter of if but when peeps.
Lastly when the solar eclipse happens on April 8th criss crossing our county with the last one it'll be interesting to see what the earth has in store not to mention the square effect of the 4 gas giants come October on our planet.

I can go much deeper but that is a long end of a short to this.  The oceans absorb all the sun's flares protons and plasma ejections 100 fold greater than the land and stores it to release it later . Compound that with UWV and you have a recipe for pasta cooking waters.

[amugs]

JMA weeks 3 -4 - are mint patterns for cold, maybe absurd cold east of the Mississippi and stormy - Higher pressures over Alaska, West Coast and Arctic region with lower pressures a trough over the east coast. Does it come to fruition??



MJO phase 8




BOMM shows this

[phil155]

What are the odds of a storm on Superbowl Sunday ?

[dkodgis]

Let’s start a pool

[MattyICE]

What are the odds of a storm on Superbowl Sunday ?

This year I’d say pretty damn good honestly. That Super Bowl - Valentines - Presidents week.

[heehaw453]

There is model suggestion that February h5 pattern is conducive to big ticket items on the east coast. This pattern provides an active yet suppressed subtropical jet coupled with HL blocking to plug the Atlantic. I would expect parts of the east coast to have AN to possibly significantly AN snowfall and normal to BN temps.
I put on the MJO RMM plot as there is evidence that it goes into phase 8 but starts to become muted which IMO is a good thing.

Does this mean a repeat of February 2010 for parts of the east coast where a similar setup occurred? I wouldn't go anywhere near there yet. That year PHL received 52" of snow in February alone and there was some suppression issues as CPK received a mere 37".

Personally I'm hoping to match the 10" I received in January and if I can do that with a snow pack that lasts for a week or two then that's a win for me in these difficult to produce snow times...

[amugs]

A couple of other MJO type wave anigs to tjis is 1993 and 1978 both big ricket Deb through Mid March patterns. Will it happen, time will tell but the potential exists.  
On March 15/20th we shall recap and see how we did and compare. We just need ro get one friggin area wide snowstorm to build off of, is that too much to ask??

[heehaw453]

IMO if Feb is going to be special it'll let us know sooner rather than later. My first window of interest is Feb 5-6.

Omega Block suppression as shown? Don't have a nicely placed western ridge, but you do have a ridge and the possibility of Atlantic blocking to keep things closer to the coast than would normally be seen. It's time for Old Man Winter to put up or shut up IMO.

[amugs]

Things get interesting as ee open the QST Week of Feb. Thaw basically gets nullified and c ro. About the 4/5th onward as I said in a group text thread was when this starts to go.

MJO correctng bigly last 5 days. A the prolonged torch calls like Dec are not happening for this region, NYCish. 

Red dot is here we are in phase 6 and then we get into 7 which is a really pretty good for Feb and in El Nino. And it looks to be going to phase 8 with all those green dots on that phase as forecasted. Phase 8 is great for Feb. Time will tell but we just have to get one area wide s owstorm down and I believe we'll be off n run ing for a good stretch of winter through midish March.

[dkodgis]

Pretty. Looks like a gumball machine

[Carvin]

Somewhere back I said nyc and surrounding area would not see much of anything until feb and we soon get in a 20 day or more so cold period winters coming backend loaded

[heehaw453]

Somewhere back I said nyc and surrounding area would not see much of anything until feb and we soon get in a 20 day or more so cold period winters coming backend loaded

Nice call and no disrespect intended, but I probably would want to see NYC receive some say 4" or 5" snowfall for starters to see things start going in the right direction before thinking it's going to get out of its snow drought. This is rather unprecedent for them at this point and sometimes the atmosphere can be very stubborn to get out of it.

[phil155]

Bobby Martrich over at epawa is very keen on rhebrime period from just Fter valentine's day, he seems to think we have a lot of winter still to come

[heehaw453]

Bobby Martrich over at epawa is very keen on rhebrime period from just Fter valentine's day, he seems to think we have a lot of winter still to come

Highly respected Met. I think he's seeing the same things we are. But i do feel February has the potential to be localized in nature meaning it might be Va/DC getting a lot of the action depending how blocking sets up. I'm skeptical of the DC-->BOS crush job storm.

[phil155]

It would be nice to get a few decent systems, don’t need to be huge systems but decent

[amugs]

A week from now. key is the upper low across New Eng. Does it drive the southern piece out to sea or up the coast. the circle along the western end of the trough currently drives the storm out to sea.If the mean trough is further west then its up the coast and a big snowstorm pic.twitter.com/cDcBN69NPf

— Bernie Rayno (@AccuRayno) January 28, 2024

[heehaw453]

A week from now. key is the upper low across New Eng. Does it drive the southern piece out to sea or up the coast. the circle along the western end of the trough currently drives the storm out to sea.If the mean trough is further west then its up the coast and a big snowstorm pic.twitter.com/cDcBN69NPf

— Bernie Rayno (@AccuRayno) January 28, 2024

I think the ULL to the north has to slide into the 50/50 which may be tough with an Omega block. If not it's going to just be in the way of the southern storm which is a mature one. Slingshot up the coast I doubt it with a big omega block and an east placed ridge. It's feasible but kind of weird IMO.

[sroc4]

Last 3-5days the SOI has flipped from a positive La Nina like state for most of January, back to a negative more El Nino state. https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/   In the words of JB this tends to be a "cattle prod" to the atmosphere reshuffling things; esp if it persists for a little while longer. The MJO is moving from phase 6 to 7 this week.  While it may be collapsing, there is a chance the MJO makes into phase 8 as well as we enter the 7-10th time frame.  Phase 7 of the MJO in Feb during El Nino winters, while not a severe cold phase, is def not a warm phase.  Phase 8 is an all out arctic intrusion east of the Rockies in the month of Feb.    

In my experience when we have transitions like this even ensemble mean forecasts have a tough time figuring out exactly where to place the mean trough and ridge axis; therefore Id expect quite a bit of back and forth, inconstancy, and evolution in the modeling this week.  Be patient

[Frank_Wx]

I originally thought the pattern will flip around Feb 10th. We’re seeing signs that will be the case, but probably closer to Feb 12th. Regardless I think we’re heading in the right direction thanks for the MJO wave Scott talked about.

We didn’t capitalize much with the opportunities we had in January when the pattern was pretty good. Let’s hope for better luck in Feb..

[heehaw453]

I'll take a double shot of caution and give me a half shot of optimism.

We have a clipper coming down the pike in a few days. Nice strong s/w with a strong ridge behind it which is the start of the Omega block. We now have a decent air mass in place but height fields are going to be compressed from the departing storm that managed to deny snowfall for most. The gift that keeps giving...

I don't see this Omega block doing much for us so IMO that means you potentially write off first 10-12 days of February. Short month folks and the long wave pattern is a very delicate balance. Just put a stubborn trough OR a ridge in the wrong place and see what happens.

My point is this. The winter IMO has kind of shown us its cards especially now a decent chunk of February may very well go snowless before things get "serviceable".  I kind of feel if the winter is going to ante up it's going to start sooner in Feb than waiting until the post 2/15 period.

We shall see...

[Frank_Wx]

Looks like a Rex Block to me.

But yea, that won’t do much for our area. Everything will be suppressed.

[heehaw453]

Looks like a Rex Block to me.

But yea, that won’t do much for our area. Everything will be suppressed.

I see your point Frank, but to me this looks more Omega...





https://www.noaa.gov/jetstream/upper-air-charts/basic-wave-patterns

[heehaw453]

Slim chance for 2/5 period. IMO the storm will need to get tugged on by the n/s. I am ok with the 50/50 where it is, but its corresponding trough is going to need to pick up the S/S. That will do 2 things 1/provide additional cold air, 2/allow the southern trough to further tilt and raise heights for a NE motion as opposed to ENE OTS. If things broke right with this you are talking a monster snow storm. I'm expecting OTS for now.

Canadian 12Z h5 vorticity and 250mb jet streak

[amugs]

El Nino is fading - little to late for our needs this winter...as usual!!
As Damien said" Can't catch a break!!"

3.4



1.2 All but gone


This is very interesting and what screwed up (kind language here) our winter in January!!! The massive warming of the Pac off the East Coast of Australia that promoted the phase of the MJO going to 4,5,6 - ARGGHH! - AGAIN CAN'T FRIGGING WIN....NOT ONE , ONE MODEL SAW THIS OR HAD THIS EVEN THORUGH DEC!!!!!

Predictions in Nov by Euro Seasonal Forecast SST


Close Up




What happened - REALLY?? One explanation is the uptick in underwater, submarine level volcanoes as JB points out



CLOSE UP

[dkodgis]

Volcanoes are off model. Models are iterations but do not have all variables considered because of the ongoing complexity of forecasting. Only Doc knows all. He is older than Google

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