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February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential

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Post by billg315 Mon Feb 12, 2024 6:51 am

I also should add as a third caveat as the storm takes on a classic wrap around, rotating bands look, some dry slotting could develop somewhere.

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Post by heehaw453 Mon Feb 12, 2024 6:52 am

If this works out thank the n/s. It's truly the reason why this has a chance. It's been digging more south run2run.

Last night's Euro h3 jet.

February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential - Page 10 Euro233

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Post by docstox12 Mon Feb 12, 2024 6:57 am

Well, one map has me 6 inches and the other 12,LOL.I am now in nowcast mode, and will know tomorrow am looking at the radar and seeing the rate of snowfall where my area stands .
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Post by heehaw453 Mon Feb 12, 2024 7:04 am

Couple questions I have. How much more is the n/s going to dig and how fast is this going to bomb. Both are critical to sensible weather. Based on the PNA/EPO a busy n/s makes sense.


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Post by heehaw453 Mon Feb 12, 2024 7:14 am

A very humbling storm for pro mets.

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Feb 12, 2024 7:18 am

Ill take 06z gfs plz. Just saw news gave blanket 8 to 12 for entire area. Was on phone not sure what channel it was. They mention st i didnt think sbout. 40mph winds and heavy wet snow on trees...power outages possible. Sometimes that can be worse than a high wind event.
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Post by MattyICE Mon Feb 12, 2024 7:21 am

Wow. We’re 18ish hours out from the onset of precip. I like that on some models - most notably the euro - there’s even wiggle room to absorb some northern correction ticks and still see significant snow for most. The HRRR really for me only starts to get into the range we need from noon and on today. For me this all comes down to a point that Homenuk (earthlight) made and Mugs referenced which is the convection to the south. How many times have we seen or even relied on convection down south to be STRONGER than modeled to help pump heights and latent heat release to force storms more north into our area? Other times we have looked great (Dec 2020 or March 2017) and those trends pushed the best axis of snow north. Yesterdays positive trends were directly correlated to OPPOSITE trends. The severe weather busted low and in this case that helps. There is a whole day left of more convection today and that is the wildcard. Does it bust low? Does it overperform unlike yesterday and move things north like we have seen in the past? Or have we built in enough insurance with yesterday south trends to absorb SOME northern ticks without sacrificing significant snow? I’m hoping for option 3!

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Post by Irish Mon Feb 12, 2024 7:51 am

I'm currently under an Advisory here in Old Bridge with 5-8 inches predicted. Should be interesting...
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Post by sroc4 Mon Feb 12, 2024 7:53 am

heehaw453 wrote:If this works out thank the n/s. It's truly the reason why this has a chance. It's been digging more south run2run.

Last night's Euro h3 jet.

February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential - Page 10 Euro233

Yes but why is the n/s digging more and more.  It all starts with the big picture stuff we have been discussing out over the Pac.  SOI crash/MJO are the big ones IMO.  This reshuffled the pattern.  It made its way to our neck of the woods.  It lead to the energy in the N Pac that I had been calling he 50/50ish low to buckle the jet to our NE; combined with the -EPO ridge going up to our NW, effectively pinning a deep cold air source into S Canada.  The stout -EPO in turn dug energy on its eastern flank which lead to our "mogul" to pop, which was the remnant of our nice +PNA ridge from a few days ago that started the cold air mass into Canada and our n/s digging.  This little mogul feature was critical in helping press the n/s energy around the back side of the lobe of the TPV sitting just SE of the Hudson Bay.  Its everything together that has this working.  While that n/s energy is def a key piece, it doesn't do its dirty work without everything else well oiled and tuned up the way it is.  

For all the folks who gave up on this, THIS is why we point out the pieces to the puzzle and discuss how things need to come together in order for this soln or that soln can work.  THIS is why most of us do what we do.  In recent past when we have talked about the players things haven't worked out, but every now and then things do come together just right.  Now that said obv nothing has happened yet so take this for what its worth.

February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential - Page 10 Ecmwf183

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Post by sroc4 Mon Feb 12, 2024 7:55 am

I will also make a separate thread for Snow maps only for people to post a map if they wish to make one.


February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential - Page 10 Snow_m10

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Post by MattyICE Mon Feb 12, 2024 8:13 am

Gonna need the deamping/southern shift trend on the Euro to stop now! Thanks! I think it’ll come back, but it’s a new wrinkle for now.

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Post by heehaw453 Mon Feb 12, 2024 8:19 am

the 06Z euro was a bit less intense than 00Z mostly due to a slightly later development of the storm. If the ULL closes before hitting the coast it's going to make a big difference in how far north the axis of heavy snow gets northward. Right now that's my big wild card is how fast that can close off. By the nature of the n/s I'd sooner than later. There's just to steep a ridge in the PNA to think otherwise IMO.

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Post by heehaw453 Mon Feb 12, 2024 8:22 am

MattyICE wrote:Gonna need the deamping/southern shift trend on the Euro to stop now! Thanks! I think it’ll come back, but it’s a new wrinkle for now.

The ULL has got to close off before hitting the coast. That's why the 06Z Euro was a bit less than 00Z. I'm leaning to early close off due to the ridging in the PNA that slides the n/s energy quickly to meet the s/s.

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Post by aiannone Mon Feb 12, 2024 8:36 am

Frank_Wx wrote:There’s a - what *COULD BE* - a nod back to the north track happening. Although the 6z NAM was south, the latest HRRR and 6z Icon bumped the low back to the north. This puts NYC out of major snowfall, while everyone south of there sees little to no accumulation.  


February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential - Page 10 Img_7025


12z HRR went back south. Looks like last night's output

February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential - Page 10 Sn10_a89

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Feb 12, 2024 8:42 am

So less concerned about a northern track but more concerned about this becoming a “southern slider”

6z euro ensembles…

February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential - Page 10 Img_7027
February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential - Page 10 Img_7028

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Post by heehaw453 Mon Feb 12, 2024 8:46 am

Yeah. Look at the ULL closed off and mature and the cyclonic curve on 12Z HRRR.  That's going to have banding in it with very intense rates as shown. That precip will get thrown back inland quite a ways due to the tilt. Also any storm that closes off and you think you have a handle on it. Nope. Stalling is always an option for something that is cut off.

February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential - Page 10 12zhrr11

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Post by docstox12 Mon Feb 12, 2024 8:47 am

sroc4 wrote:I will also make a separate thread for Snow maps only for people to post a map if they wish to make one.  


February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential - Page 10 Snow_m10

Great map Doc!
Curious ,though, about the latest big southern shifts in the models.My area in the LHV you have 12 to 18 would be getting 6 to 8 or less with that shift.You don't seem to be buying that in your map.
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Post by Irish Mon Feb 12, 2024 8:51 am

docstox12 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:I will also make a separate thread for Snow maps only for people to post a map if they wish to make one.  


February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential - Page 10 Snow_m10

Great map Doc!
Curious ,though, about the latest big southern shifts in the models.My area in the LHV you have 12 to 18 would be getting 6 to 8 or less with that shift.You don't seem to be buying that in your map.
Yeah, if the shift continues south, there might need to be a revisit on the 1st call.
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Post by docstox12 Mon Feb 12, 2024 8:56 am

Irish wrote:
docstox12 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:I will also make a separate thread for Snow maps only for people to post a map if they wish to make one.  


February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential - Page 10 Snow_m10

Great map Doc!
Curious ,though, about the latest big southern shifts in the models.My area in the LHV you have 12 to 18 would be getting 6 to 8 or less with that shift.You don't seem to be buying that in your map.
Yeah, if the shift continues south, there might need to be a revisit on the 1st call.

Right, the 6OZ Euro now has me at 2 to 4,LOL.These wonderful Miller B's....I hate and detest them! A narrow band of heavy snow with sharp cut offs.Give me a multistate 20 inch plus Miller A please!
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Feb 12, 2024 9:01 am

A madonne-like 12z NAM run incoming...

The surface low - for the most part - is following the same path as 6z run but the ULL seems to be slightly more south. Much more expansive precip field as well, which compensates areas to the north.

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Feb 12, 2024 9:04 am

February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential - Page 10 Namconus_ref_frzn_neus_23

February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential - Page 10 Namconus_ref_frzn_neus_24

February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential - Page 10 Namconus_ref_frzn_neus_25

February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential - Page 10 Namconus_ref_frzn_neus_26

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Post by billg315 Mon Feb 12, 2024 9:08 am

Frank_Wx wrote:So less concerned about a northern track but more concerned about this becoming a “southern slider”

6z euro ensembles…

February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential - Page 10 Img_7027
February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential - Page 10 Img_7028
Which would be ironic since that's what the GFS had last week. Doesn't seem likely to me though. I think the northern extent of the snow is being limited by the more south positioning of the storm, but I don't think it goes completely south on us. I don't think . . . .
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Feb 12, 2024 9:10 am

February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential - Page 10 Namconus_asnow_neus_16

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Post by billg315 Mon Feb 12, 2024 9:12 am

Looks like the 12z NAM actually came a bit back north from the previous run. Still a lot of waffling and uncertainty with these models. Nothing written in stone yet for sure.
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Post by essexcountypete Mon Feb 12, 2024 9:13 am

Frank_Wx wrote:So less concerned about a northern track but more concerned about this becoming a “southern slider”

6z euro ensembles…

February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential - Page 10 Img_7027
February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential - Page 10 Img_7028

My mental health would slide right out with it. But I appreciate the warning that that's not out of the realm of possibilities. Staying grounded is hard on a morning like this.
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Post by billg315 Mon Feb 12, 2024 9:18 am

12z NAM (current)
February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential - Page 10 Img_2943

6z NAM (previous)
February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential - Page 10 Img_2944
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Post by Irish Mon Feb 12, 2024 9:29 am

billg315 wrote:12z NAM (current)
February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential - Page 10 Img_2943

6z NAM (previous)
February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential - Page 10 Img_2944
Definitely slid north from those maps. Took me from a foot to 7-8.  Should be in the goods either way. I hope for a solution that works best for all and not one shafting a good chunk.
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