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FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II

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Post by heehaw453 Mon Feb 12, 2024 10:00 pm

Hi Res 00Z GFS. Huggable for many even if taking 20% off the top.

FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II - Page 4 Fv312

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Feb 12, 2024 10:03 pm

00z RGEM

FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II - Page 4 Image-png-e3e3f168c31c905b9e574a7537cd71bb

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Post by heehaw453 Mon Feb 12, 2024 10:03 pm

if folks can get 4-6" out of this with the way the past several winters have gone, it's a big win IMO. Just to get to this point to a quite bit to align.

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Feb 12, 2024 10:06 pm

Frank wheres your final call?
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Post by billg315 Mon Feb 12, 2024 10:10 pm

heehaw453 wrote:if folks can get 4-6" out of this with the way the past several winters have gone, it's a big win IMO. Just to get to this point to a quite bit to align.

Definitely true for me. Probably depends where you’re at. Anyone in NJ should be happy with 4-6” out of this because five days ago this was forecast to be just rain. If I were north of NYC I’d probably consider 4-6 (or less) a let down as they were consistently forecast for more than that up until the last 24 hours or so. On the other hand after the last two winters 4-6” anywhere should probably just be taken as a positive.
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Post by amugs Mon Feb 12, 2024 10:12 pm

3K NAM

FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II - Page 4 Nam-ne11

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WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by heehaw453 Mon Feb 12, 2024 10:15 pm

Current snow depth across the northeast.  Binghamton, Syracuse, Rochester, Berkshires, Albany, Burlington, Buffalo. Nothing. It's just perspective maybe belongs in observations page, but sometimes just go be happy for what you get.

FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II - Page 4 Snowde16

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Feb 12, 2024 10:19 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Frank wheres your final call?

Here

FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II - Page 4 Final

Ultimately decided I do have the right maxima (though isolated 10-11" spots not out of question). I just had to extend the zone further west-northwest to account for better ratios and frontogenesis in those areas than I initially thought.

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Post by NJBear Mon Feb 12, 2024 10:22 pm

The NWS is perplexed on the outcome of the storm.

NWS Discussion

Here's my prediction. Wed morning we'll seen massive amounts of Ice Cement.
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Feb 12, 2024 10:30 pm

02z HRRR - looks pretty good

FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II - Page 4 IMG-1715-thumb-gif-2314159c189aebffd0a3674095ca5148

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Feb 12, 2024 10:34 pm

From mt. Holly disco..Sheesh 95 coridor 1 to 4 inches...wow does that include nyc arwa or is that 95 along jersey heading south? Does upton have similar thoughts?
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Feb 12, 2024 10:37 pm

One of my highlights already with this storm - besides it being my biggest snowfall in 2 years - is Boston getting absolutely shafted muhahaha

FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II - Page 4 GGLcNSJWgAAxmIc?format=jpg&name=medium

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Feb 12, 2024 10:39 pm

NBC's latest map actually looks like my first map. I think they will regret not extending that 5-8" zone more west into PA as well

FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II - Page 4 GGL7Gt5XEAACiu8?format=jpg&name=large

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Post by emokid51783 Mon Feb 12, 2024 10:40 pm

jmanley32 wrote:From mt. Holly disco..Sheesh 95 coridor 1 to 4 inches...wow does that include nyc arwa or is that 95 along jersey heading south? Does upton have similar thoughts?

It's from holly, there are higher amounts north of -195.

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Feb 12, 2024 10:41 pm

Upton. Mention at least 1-2 inch rates nyc metro and possible thunder!

SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
* Winter storm to impact the area on Tuesday.

* Winter storm warnings issued for NYC metro and Long Island,
 where there is higher confidence in at least 6 inches of
 snowfall.

* Guidance continues to trend south. Forecast was originally
 based on the 12Z GFS/NAM but made some last-minute changes
 based on the 12Z ECMWF/NAM. This could put the metro area and
 Long Island more under the axis of higher QPF, with lesser
 amts north/west of NYC than originally anticipated.

Model guidance has continued to trend south, with the 18Z
ECMWF/NAM showing a tad less phasing with a northern stream
shortwave trough moving through the Great Lakes. This shift
should lead to lower snowfall amts quite a bit across the
interior, and put the axis of highest QPF either right over
the NYC metro area/Long Island or just south. At the last minute
blended the 12Z ECMWF with the 12Z GFS/NAM which were farther
north. Did not change headlines inland but lowered snowfall amts
to the 6-9 inches range across the interior, and if the
southward trend continues it is possible that northern areas may
less less than 6 inches of snowfall.

Meanwhile confidence has increased enough in higher snowfall
totals for the NYC metro and Long Island to upgrade watches to
warnings for those areas. Amts will be in the 4-7 inch range
around the NYC metro area were blyr temps will remain a little
warmer than areas to the NW and also across Long Island. Per
earlier forecasts of favorable deformation/frontogenetic
forcing near the coast and negative EPV* atop the frontogenetic
layer, there could be some slantwise instability and perhaps
some isolated thunder as the heaviest precip moves across in the
morning.

QPF of 1.00-1.25 inches expected only across the NYC metro area
and Long Island, with lesser amts of 3/4 to 1 inch to the north.

Snow ratios at the coast will likely be low at the onset, but
then increase as the snow becomes heavy (with rates at least
1-2 inches/hour) and low level winds become more northerly.

In addition, NE-N winds at the height of the storm will gust to
30-40 mph, strongest along the coast. This could further
restrict visibilities. However, with the wet nature of the
snow, blowing snow should be at a minimum and any blizzard-like
conditions should be short-lived.


Last edited by jmanley32 on Mon Feb 12, 2024 10:43 pm; edited 2 times in total
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Feb 12, 2024 10:41 pm

00z GFS hot off the presses

Can't believe how aggressive this model has been. Still tries to output Godzilla-like amounts over a widespread area. Just not buying it

FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II - Page 4 Sn10-acc-imp-us-state-ne-s

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Post by Irish Mon Feb 12, 2024 10:42 pm

Predictions of 6-11 inches for my area. Should be interesting to see where in the range we fall.
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Feb 12, 2024 10:43 pm

00z GFS kuchera I can buy

FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II - Page 4 Snku-acc-imp-us-state-ne-s

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Post by aiannone Mon Feb 12, 2024 10:44 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:00z GFS kuchera I can buy

FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II - Page 4 Snku-acc-imp-us-state-ne-s

Not bad. Damn this was a tough go for the Boston weenies.
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Post by NJBear Mon Feb 12, 2024 10:44 pm

Right now, rain mixed with wet snow at 42 degrees. Near I-78 Never seen that before.
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Feb 12, 2024 10:44 pm

GFS has a band over central-west central NJ that drops 3" of snow/hour

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Feb 12, 2024 10:44 pm

Ill sign for either gfs map.
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Feb 12, 2024 10:45 pm

00z HREF...NYC/NE NJ jackpot

FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II - Page 4 GGMAE__XoAAYKSB?format=jpg&name=medium

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Post by aiannone Mon Feb 12, 2024 10:46 pm

FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II - Page 4 Img_6915

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Post by billg315 Mon Feb 12, 2024 10:47 pm

My sense is the GFS often over-estimates precipitation amounts (often see 2” rain forecasts where we end up 1-1.5”) so these snow maps are consistent with that wet bias.
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Feb 12, 2024 10:49 pm

00z Canadian coming in...

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FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II - Page 4 Image0-2-thumb-jpg-1e866869b4a18289ccbc0b43eb03a991


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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Feb 12, 2024 10:53 pm

FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II - Page 4 Giphy


FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II - Page 4 Image-thumb-png-c8022b1479bb8580f1a3c9f8161a885a

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