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March 2024 Observations and Discussion

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WeatherBob
1190ftalt
CPcantmeasuresnow
amugs
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heehaw453
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kalleg
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docstox12
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jmanley32
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March 2024 Observations and Discussion - Page 6 Empty Re: March 2024 Observations and Discussion

Post by dkodgis Sat Mar 23, 2024 9:25 am

March 2024 Observations and Discussion - Page 6 Img_2511
March 2024 Observations and Discussion - Page 6 Img_2510

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Post by docstox12 Sat Mar 23, 2024 10:13 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:32.4 and moderate rain. You just can't make it up.

A last kick in the head for a disappointing what used to be called winter.

32 degrees, heavy rain, windy.

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Post by heehaw453 Sat Mar 23, 2024 10:28 am

This was close to being a snowstorm for local inland areas. This h5 just had a compressed ridge due to TPV over Hudson Bay. IMO if that ridge was able to pump by sliding that TPV more eastward this trough would have dug and the southerly flow would have been compressed. Way more supply of cold air that way and you can just look at the 850's over the Great Lakes to see that.  Really close to being a 6-12" or more snow storm in the local area.   Evil or Very Mad  Evil or Very Mad  Evil or Very Mad

As it is the storm will be allowed to develop as a coastal hugger. 1.75" of rain in the bucket 41.2/41.2 and planning on at least getting 3" out of this IMBY.  Roads are starting to flood.

March 2024 Observations and Discussion - Page 6 Laston15
March 2024 Observations and Discussion - Page 6 Laston16

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Post by dkodgis Sat Mar 23, 2024 10:42 am

March 2024 Observations and Discussion - Page 6 Img_2513
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Post by heehaw453 Sat Mar 23, 2024 1:39 pm

3.05" in the bucket. Easily another .5" to go as per radar before this garbage clears out.
40.2/40.2 fully saturated air and ground.

Note the center of circulation for surface winds directly over coastal NJ. Matches up nicely with the surface LP. Burlington VT last pic, one can dream...



March 2024 Observations and Discussion - Page 6 Windy10
March 2024 Observations and Discussion - Page 6 Laston17March 2024 Observations and Discussion - Page 6 Burlin10

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Mar 23, 2024 2:39 pm

Jesus the rain rn is obscenely heavy. So far only minor street ponding but if this kerps up. Im surprised no flash flood warnings. The winds should b kick in soon. Thatll be interesting...
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Post by kalleg Sat Mar 23, 2024 2:54 pm

Rain has stopped in New Hope, 4 inches on my rain gauge.
Wind hasn't started yet, will be interesting to see what happens when it does, as the ground is more than soaked, large puddles everywhere. A good thing that tree branches are still bare of leaves, or the effects of strong winds would be much more problematic...

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Post by weatherwatchermom Sat Mar 23, 2024 2:56 pm

HeeHaw sons roommate is from Maine they have winter storm and possibly a foot of snow today ...at school RI just rain, and here at the coast 2.5 inches so far and 49*  no wind yet but we got a warning

Ps Dash still wishes he was a cat...had to bribe him by standing at the door showing I will wait there to dry him off..haha
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Mar 23, 2024 4:14 pm

Got word from my sister in syracuse 2 ft!
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Post by heehaw453 Sat Mar 23, 2024 4:28 pm

weatherwatchermom wrote:HeeHaw sons roommate is from Maine they have winter storm and possibly a foot of snow today ...at school RI just rain, and here at the coast 2.5 inches so far and 49*  no wind yet but we got a warning

Ps Dash still wishes he was a cat...had to bribe him by standing at the door showing I will wait there to dry him off..haha

3.4" in the bucket IMBY. Very impressive totals.

Indeed parts of interior ME will receive > 18" coupled with considerable wind. March is a big snow producing month for NNE/NY Adirondacks. Caribou is running at 65% of seasonal average and this will close that gap considerably. They average ~120"/season up there. Before today's snowfall Portland was on pace for lowest ever seasonal snowfall which was 27.5" for 1979-80, but this snowfall today clears that bar.

March 2024 Observations and Discussion - Page 6 Caribo10
March 2024 Observations and Discussion - Page 6 Portla11
March 2024 Observations and Discussion - Page 6 Portla10

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Post by dkodgis Sat Mar 23, 2024 4:31 pm

Intense band of rain in the last hour. Went from 2 to 4 inches in the gauge.  Wind is picking up. 20 mph gusts witj rain smacking against the slider door
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Mar 23, 2024 5:19 pm

Rain moving out looks nice and clear behind it, looks like tomorrow will be salvaged. Already seeing next sat may be a washout per GFS...sigh
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sat Mar 23, 2024 10:13 pm

A high of 34.3 today and low of 31.8 and saw nothing but rain. Still at 29.3 inches of snow for the season and it appears that's where it will stay.

What a sh!t winter, again.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sat Mar 23, 2024 10:31 pm

docstox12 wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:19 for my low this morning and coldest of March.

March so far is running +7.9 AN in Central Park, +8.5 AN in EWR, 6.6 ABE.  Wow...

Temperature wise the last nine years or so have been in hyperdrive. Yes there were a couple of above normal snowfall years in there but the rising temperatures and so many warmest months ever in this time period and every other month seems to be in the top ten warmest of all time. Very disconcerting.

Very true for our area,CP, but all during that time when we are getting rainstorms, Northern New England always is pounded with heavy snow.Look at the NWS map for the storm this weekend.It may have warmed for our area, but up in those parts, it's heavy snow.Same with the Sierra Nevada of California.Also the Lake Effect machine when it cranks up.The same in those areas as in years past.

I'm not really sure what your point is about the snow Doc? Areas that are way below freezing for winter averages like upstate NY and Northern New England will still have heavy snows with rising average temperatures, but all of the places you've mentioned have had above normal temperatures this winter and have all warmed significantly the past 40 years. It's the rising temperatures that have me concerned/annoyed. We may get above normal snowfall next season but below normal temperatures? Unlikely.

Like I always say we keep measuring our above normal months against 30 year averages from 1991-2020 which are already inflated vs the averages from 1870-1990. If we posted our recent averages against the averages from 1870-1990 it would look much more dire than it already is.

I've said my peace, people will keep denying it's getting significantly warmer and that's their right, even though they're wrong LOL.
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Post by docstox12 Sun Mar 24, 2024 6:05 am

30 degrees, clear, windy.About 2.5 inches total up here.
CP, what I was driving at is the climate change is not so extreme yet as to severely limit snowfall totals in the areas I mention....YET.Apparently in our area with the temperatures , marginal storms that would have been snow, are now rain.This season is an example and could be the norm as time passes.One can't deny the average temps are rising , facts are facts, whatever the cause.Now, back to OTI to prepare the closing "state of the Islands" yearly address to Parliament.
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Post by kalleg Sun Mar 24, 2024 8:12 am

29* in New Hope, daffodils are drooping, our star magnolia blossoms that came out very early last week when temps were in the 6o's have turned brown, and where water from yesterday's storm has remained on the roads (went out to pick up the Times), there are lots of icy spots.

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Post by heehaw453 Sun Mar 24, 2024 12:31 pm

27.5 was the low this morning. Beautiful sunshine for drying out.

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Post by heehaw453 Sun Mar 24, 2024 1:00 pm

docstox12 wrote:30 degrees, clear, windy.About 2.5 inches total up here.
CP, what I was driving at is the climate change is not so extreme yet as to severely limit snowfall totals in the areas I mention....YET.Apparently in our area with the temperatures , marginal storms that would have been snow, are now rain.This season is an example and could be the norm as time passes.One can't deny the average temps are rising , facts are facts, whatever the cause.Now, back to OTI to prepare the closing "state of the Islands" yearly address to Parliament.

You bring up a point that I have heard from other folks in the weather communities especially in the mid-Atlantic (BWI, IAD, northern MD) areas. Their sensitivity in that region to increasing temperatures has a much higher impact on snowfall than say Boston and even the winters of 2013/14-2014/15 which were fantastic for my area they started to see systems generating rain while just to the north were heavy snow. Some of those folks have some very detailed h5 and storm track analogs that in the 1980s were bread and butter 4-8" snow storms that now seem to generate rain. I'm not speculating on the why it's warming but the likelihood is if trajectories continue this way snowfall is going to be impacted further north than Mason Dixon Line. Now I don't have chicken coop records IMBY for the last 100 years, but I'm pretty sure that in the last 5 years the top two lowest seasonal snowfalls have occurred.

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Post by amugs Sun Mar 24, 2024 5:18 pm

Storm at end of the week.....again for the weekend??

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Post by dkodgis Sun Mar 24, 2024 6:00 pm

You just made CP sad
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Mar 25, 2024 6:04 pm

amugs wrote:Storm at end of the week.....again for the weekend??
Arrgggg, yes and per GFS every weekend until the end of its run, if true I think I am onto something with us not having one weekend without rain. I also noted that GFS has temps not getting out of the 40s' maybe low 50s through 8th of April. I guess thats kinda near normal? But still I would prefer a much bigger warm-up.
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Post by weatherwatchermom Mon Mar 25, 2024 6:23 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
amugs wrote:Storm at end of the week.....again for the weekend??
Arrgggg, yes and per GFS every weekend until the end of its run, if true I think I am onto something with us not having one weekend without rain. I also noted that GFS has temps not getting out of the 40s' maybe low 50s through 8th of April. I guess thats kinda near normal? But still I would prefer a much bigger warm-up.
March 2024 Observations and Discussion - Page 6 Screen33

Weather looks delightful for this weekend 😁
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Post by Dunnzoo Tue Mar 26, 2024 4:55 pm

I'm more concerned with Thursday. Mets Opening Day forecast is all over the place. This morning, the models were all day rain Thursday, now it looks like the rain will end by the afternoon (per Channel 7). Why can't we just get a week or 2 with no rain??????

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Snowfall winter of 2023-2024  17.5"    

Snowfall winter of 2022-2023       6.0"
Snowfall winter of 2021-2022     17.6"    1" sleet 2/25/22
Snowfall winter of 2020-2021     51.1"
Snowfall winter of 2019-2020       8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
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Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
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Post by frank 638 Tue Mar 26, 2024 5:49 pm

Dunnzoo wrote:I'm more concerned with Thursday. Mets Opening Day forecast is all over the place. This morning, the models were all day rain Thursday, now it looks like the rain will end by the afternoon (per Channel 7). Why can't we just get a week or 2 with no rain??????
I think for the Mets opener you guys have a chance of playing I would say in the morning it’s gonna be cloudy, rainy, but I think by the afternoon it will be cloudy. It will be nice to see the sun, but I’m happy baseball season is here.

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Post by Dunnzoo Wed Mar 27, 2024 2:40 pm

frank 638 wrote:
Dunnzoo wrote:I'm more concerned with Thursday. Mets Opening Day forecast is all over the place. This morning, the models were all day rain Thursday, now it looks like the rain will end by the afternoon (per Channel 7). Why can't we just get a week or 2 with no rain??????
I think for the Mets opener you guys have a chance of playing I would say in the morning it’s gonna be cloudy, rainy, but I think by the afternoon it will be cloudy. It will be nice to see the sun, but I’m happy baseball season is here.

Postponed until Friday, thank goodness they called it this afternoon, repeat of last year. Can't risk players getting hurt the first game. Going to be another day of staying home watching the rain. Then running to Queens Friday and Saturday.

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Snowfall winter of 2023-2024  17.5"    

Snowfall winter of 2022-2023       6.0"
Snowfall winter of 2021-2022     17.6"    1" sleet 2/25/22
Snowfall winter of 2020-2021     51.1"
Snowfall winter of 2019-2020       8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by weatherwatchermom Wed Mar 27, 2024 5:07 pm

Dunnzoo wrote:
frank 638 wrote:
Dunnzoo wrote:I'm more concerned with Thursday. Mets Opening Day forecast is all over the place. This morning, the models were all day rain Thursday, now it looks like the rain will end by the afternoon (per Channel 7). Why can't we just get a week or 2 with no rain??????
I think for the Mets opener you guys have a chance of playing I would say in the morning it’s gonna be cloudy, rainy, but I think by the afternoon it will be cloudy. It will be nice to see the sun, but I’m happy baseball season is here.

Postponed until Friday, thank goodness they called it this afternoon, repeat of last year. Can't risk players getting hurt the first game. Going to be another day of staying home watching the rain. Then running to Queens Friday and Saturday.

and Friday will be warmer!
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Mar 28, 2024 4:53 pm

Just want to wish the family here a Happy Easter! Looks like a mostly overcast weekend with spotty showers possible. In fact, the cloudiness and rain will extend into next week as well. We are heading into a -NAO long range pattern (go figure it comes now instead of during the winter) which will call for a very cool April. Potentially looking at -3 to -5 temp departures for the entire month Sad

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