Re: Official Long Range Thread 2.0

by **Frank_Wx** Thu Mar 20, 2014 12:56 am

00z Canadian...

Official Long Range Thread 2.0 - Page 38 1509667_279061015596699_940840266_n

by **Frank_Wx** Thu Mar 20, 2014 12:59 am

by **SoulSingMG** Thu Mar 20, 2014 12:59 am

Frank_Wx wrote:00z Canadian...

What the hell is THAT?!

by **Frank_Wx** Thu Mar 20, 2014 1:00 am

The snow map is pretty funny. Tom gets 2 inches. Ryan gets 12 inches. Very Happy

Official Long Range Thread 2.0 - Page 38 1660512_728922253814983_1074782428_n

by **Frank_Wx** Thu Mar 20, 2014 1:01 am

by **Frank_Wx** Thu Mar 20, 2014 1:02 am

Like I said, drastic run to run model solutions expected through Saturday with such a delicate pattern as this one.

by **NjWeatherGuy** Thu Mar 20, 2014 1:17 am

SoulSingMG wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:00z Canadian...

What the hell is THAT?!

Hmmmmmmmmm, am I a genie?

Official Long Range Thread 2.0 - Page 38 Fantas11

lol, and excuse me, on that map I get about 10 lol

by **Frank_Wx** Thu Mar 20, 2014 1:18 am

Haha that is funny

by **NjWeatherGuy** Thu Mar 20, 2014 1:25 am

Frank_Wx wrote:Haha that is funny

Pulling an all nighter to get some work done, waiting to see if GEFS ensembles are any improvement, definitely want to see GGEM ensembles.

by **NjWeatherGuy** Thu Mar 20, 2014 1:29 am

0z GGEM ensembles, ehhhh, like the fact that many members show a big storm, I guess that's all we can hope for ATM

http://weather.gc.ca/ensemble/charts_e.html?Hour=144&Day=&RunTime=00&Type=pnm

by **NjWeatherGuy** Thu Mar 20, 2014 1:31 am

NAVGEM is interesting

Official Long Range Thread 2.0 - Page 38 3_20na10

Official Long Range Thread 2.0 - Page 38 3_20na11

by **Frank_Wx** Thu Mar 20, 2014 1:32 am

NjWeatherGuy wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:Haha that is funny

Pulling an all nighter to get some work done, waiting to see if GEFS ensembles are any improvement, definitely want to see GGEM ensembles.

Cant post but the GEFS looks like the OP. Have not seen individuals though

by **NjWeatherGuy** Thu Mar 20, 2014 4:07 am

0z GEFS, some hits

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRS_0z/ensloopnew.html

by **NjWeatherGuy** Thu Mar 20, 2014 4:09 am

0z EURO

Official Long Range Thread 2.0 - Page 38 Screen69

by **pdubz** Thu Mar 20, 2014 4:58 am

They all show a storm so that's the good thing.

...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...

OVER THE WEST...MOST AREAS EXCEPT FOR THE EXTREME NORTH SHOULD SEE
TEMPS 5-15F ABOVE NORMAL INTO MIDWEEK. EXPECT MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH PACIFIC MOISTURE
FINALLY REACHING THE WEST COAST AND FILTERING PCPN AND COOLING
TEMPS INCREASINGLY INLAND TUE-THU.

FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE EAST ANTICIPATE MULTIPLE DAYS WITH BROAD
COVERAGE OF TEMPS 10-20F BELOW NORMAL WITH LOCALLY GREATER
ANOMALIES POSSIBLE. SUCH DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL SHOULD BE
SOMEWHAT MORE EXPANSIVE FOR MAX TEMPS VERSUS LOW TEMPS GIVEN WINDS
AND SOME CLOUDS/MSTR AWAY FROM TWO COLD SFC HIGHS DROPPING SWD
FROM CANADA. SEVERAL UPSTREAM SHORTWAVES MAY SUPPORT PERIODIC
POCKETS OF SNOW WHERE AIR IS SUFFICIENTLY COLD WHILE
MOISTURE/IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN SRN STREAM FLOW MAY GENERATE PASSING
AREAS OF RAINFALL OVER THE FAR SOUTH.

IN THIS PATTERN THERE MEANWHILE REMAINS SIGNIFICANT POTENTIAL FOR
UNUSUALLY FAR SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION FOR LATE
MARCH. THE BEST CONSENSUS FOR WRN ATLANTIC COASTAL STORM
INTENSIFICATION TUE-WED GIVES THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST THE
HIGHEST THREAT OF MEANINGFUL LATE SEASON SNOW/WIND.

SCHICHTEL

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdepd

by **algae888** Thu Mar 20, 2014 5:14 am

from mt holly

TELECONNECTION PATTERN IS TRYING TO GET A PNA SWITCH WHICH DOES
ENHANCE PCPN CHANCES. THE NAO IS FCST TO REMAIN POSITIVE, WHICH IT
HAS BEEN SINCE JANUARY 19TH. SO WHILE THE LATTER HAS NOT STOPPED
THE SNOW, THE ESCAPE HATCH ITS PROVIDING WOULD SUGGEST A MORE
PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION.

it looks like the only chance we have with this storm is if the trough becomes neg (at the right time) and pulls the storm west. otherwise their is nothing to stop or slow it down and it goes harmlessly out to our east. with all this cold if we only had some blocking what a winter it could have been. still a good winter but it could have been one to remember.

by **NjWeatherGuy** Thu Mar 20, 2014 5:18 am

algae888 wrote:from mt holly

TELECONNECTION PATTERN IS TRYING TO GET A PNA SWITCH WHICH DOES
ENHANCE PCPN CHANCES. THE NAO IS FCST TO REMAIN POSITIVE, WHICH IT
HAS BEEN SINCE JANUARY 19TH. SO WHILE THE LATTER HAS NOT STOPPED
THE SNOW, THE ESCAPE HATCH ITS PROVIDING WOULD SUGGEST A MORE
PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION.

it looks like the only chance we have with this storm is if the trough becomes neg (at the right time) and pulls the storm west. otherwise their is nothing to stop or slow it down and it goes harmlessly out to our east. with all this cold if we only had some blocking what a winter it could have been. still a good winter but it could have been one to remember.

Trough axis needs to be a bit further west. As time gets closer downstream things can change which could allow that. But it could also stay just as progressive or even more than it is now, it really is a waiting game for now. Signals are not great but we'll see.

by **docstox12** Thu Mar 20, 2014 5:43 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
amugs wrote:
SNOW MAN wrote:They mentioned this possible storm for the middle of next week on NBC Nightly News tonight. They showed a graphic from TWC and said don't put your snow removal equipment away just yet. Oh boy if that isn't the ultimate KOD I don't know what is. LOL !

Here we go and then JB willpost a 20" snowmap and FB goes viral and we kiss it all goodbye!! HAHAHA!!

ANYWAY, JOIN ME IN RAISING A GLASS TO THE OFFICIAL END OF WINTER ON ITS LAST FULL DAY TODAY - EVEN THOUGH I HAVE THE FLU I AM KSW   AND WILL RAISE A GLASS WITH ALL MY FELLOW SPIRES AND LADS OF MY FICTITIOUS KINGDOM WE MADE THIS YEAR ON THIS WONDERFUL BOARD AND GIVE CHEERS TO THE VERY GOOD WINTER IT WAS OVERALL !!

Three Cheers for Old Man Winter Everyone -        here here!!

Let's hope he can lay us a big   or a   bomb next week.

It will never even get that far your Highness   . There'e a better chance Kate Upton calls me in the next five days, and asks me to leave my wife for her, than there is for this alleged storm to hit our area with snow.

I've got to keep it real your Highness   . The masses are tired of the cold and snowless stretch that has been the hallmark of your 6 week reign. Whispers of an overthrow have been heard in the hallways. If you can't deliver by next Wednesday maybe you should resign as King of Snow Weenie Land.

I'm just the messenger.

Hilarious, CP and I agree with you.

The pattern the last 6 weeks is for snowstorms to move south.I'm not getting excited with these long range models that show snowstorms hitting our area and then get jerked around.I'll check into this the day of the storm,if any.

by **jmanley32** Thu Mar 20, 2014 6:29 am

06z GFS still has a bomb albeit offshore but coming northerly similar to last couple runs. 977mb at deepest with 90mph wind gusts according to instantwxmaps! Snow does touch NYC CT and MA with like 2-4 inches most towards cape cod. If we can get that westward movement like Frank was saying we will really be in for it depending on how far it moves west, if any.

by **NjWeatherGuy** Thu Mar 20, 2014 6:32 am

jmanley32 wrote:06z GFS still has a bomb albeit offshore but coming northerly similar to last couple runs. 977mb at deepest with 90mph wind gusts according to instantwxmaps! Snow does touch NYC CT and MA with like 2-4 inches most towards cape cod. If we can get that westward movement like Frank was saying we will really be in for it depending on how far it moves west, if any.

That doesn't quite sound right, the wind gust part

by **jmanley32** Thu Mar 20, 2014 6:36 am

well thats what instant wxmaps shows as the highest winds as it pulls away:

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014032006&time=INSTANT&var=GUSTM&hour=156

not near us, just was stating how strong the darn thing gets. But I have heard instantwxmaps can exaggerate numbers.

Upton:

THE HIGH MOVES
EAST ON TUESDAY WITH UNCERTAINTY INCREASING DUE TO POTENTIAL LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE GFS/ECMWF/CMC
AND ENSEMBLES ALL SHOW THIS LOW DEVELOPING TUESDAY MORNING AND
MOVING NE TOWARDS A LOCATION SE OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE UNCERTAINTY LIES FROM THE EVOLUTION OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH AND PHASING OF ENERGY WITHIN THE TROUGH. THE ECMWF
HAS HAD A TENDENCY TO OVER AMPLIFY SYSTEMS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE THIS
WINTER. HOWEVER...THE LATEST GFS...SEVERAL OF ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
AND THE CMC DO SHOW A COMPARABLE STRENGTH WITH DIFFERENCES IN THE
TIMING OF ENERGY PHASING AND TRACK. WITH THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM ON
DAY 6...DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH
GENERALLY SHOWS CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW MIX TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A
CHANCE OF SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

by **NjWeatherGuy** Thu Mar 20, 2014 6:37 am

jmanley32 wrote:well thats what instant wxmaps shows as the highest winds as it pulls away:

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014032006&time=INSTANT&var=GUSTM&hour=156

not near us, just was stating how strong the darn thing gets. But I have heard instantwxmaps can exaggerate numbers.

Upton:

THE HIGH MOVES
EAST ON TUESDAY WITH UNCERTAINTY INCREASING DUE TO POTENTIAL LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE GFS/ECMWF/CMC
AND ENSEMBLES ALL SHOW THIS LOW DEVELOPING TUESDAY MORNING AND
MOVING NE TOWARDS A LOCATION SE OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE UNCERTAINTY LIES FROM THE EVOLUTION OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH AND PHASING OF ENERGY WITHIN THE TROUGH. THE ECMWF
HAS HAD A TENDENCY TO OVER AMPLIFY SYSTEMS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE THIS
WINTER. HOWEVER...THE LATEST GFS...SEVERAL OF ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
AND THE CMC DO SHOW A COMPARABLE STRENGTH WITH DIFFERENCES IN THE
TIMING OF ENERGY PHASING AND TRACK. WITH THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM ON
DAY 6...DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH
GENERALLY SHOWS CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW MIX TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A
CHANCE OF SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

That's wrong, shows much of the country pretty windy despite widely spaced isobars in many locations. Those wind gusts would be above Sandy level which is ridiculous because Sandy was over 30mb stronger.

by **jmanley32** Thu Mar 20, 2014 6:39 am

when it passes south of here its more around 980mb and 75mph gusts, but again this is instantwxmaps. Anyone else have a windfield map reading thats more accurate? Doesn't really matter right now still offshore, no real sig move west but I didnt expect that by 06z maybe by tonight or tomorrow we may see some change.

by **jmanley32** Thu Mar 20, 2014 6:41 am

NJ the strongest purple colors are obviously with the low, which would tell me that the max number in the lower right at the bottom of the map is from the storm. I do not see anywhere else in the US that comes even close to those colors not even in the 40-50mph range.

by **jmanley32** Thu Mar 20, 2014 6:44 am

I was also explained that the MB does not necessarily mean stronger winds there are other factors. Example I have seen a 993mb storm with hurricane force winds. Just saying, check with Frank as I am not 100% sure but anything sub 980 can be 75mph or higher:

Yes its for hurricanes but gives you a general idea of winds to mb, way at the bottom.

http://weather.org/conversion.htm

by **NjWeatherGuy** Thu Mar 20, 2014 7:03 am

No it has to due with the pressure gradient and how tight the isobars are. Sandys isobars were as tightly packed as Ive seen. Sure there are other factors but pressure gradient is the major one. What is this hurricane force 993 you speak of?

by **jmanley32** Thu Mar 20, 2014 7:08 am

2010 noreaster, was 993mb says to the right side and had 75-85 mph wind gusts, and I beg to differ that the only thing is the isobars, look at the isobars on the instantwwxmaps thats pretty compact! The site may be wrong but I know I am reading it right, not debating you on that the site could be mis-sampling. Anyways heres the link to the 2010 storm.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/March_2010_North_American_winter_storm

look at the NY section, so if 75-85mph happened with 993mb then 977 certainly could put out 90mph and this was also a march storm and I remember it well the winds reaked havok here, giant trees uprooted.

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