March 2nd-4th Potential Snowstorm

Canadian is probably 12+ for NYC

Yea, CMC is 12+ for NYC. As much as 15 inches actually. It throws back additional snow because it develops a coastal storm. Which is what some models were showing yesterday. If we get all that overrunning snow then the coastal, it would be a Godzilla for sure

good to hear hopefully it trends colder tomorrow. are you staying up for the EURO?

GFS and CMC looking fairly similar, makes me feel a little better seeing them hold after the EURO run this afternoon. Really would like to see the EURO come south/colder tonight

pdubz wrote:good to hear hopefully it trends colder tomorrow. are you staying up for the EURO?

Studying for an exam. So yes

gefs look good ..here are the individual plots at hr 120

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2014022700/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_11.png

gefs mean at 120

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2014022700/gfs-ens_mslp_wind_us_21.png

The bad news is the EURO does not look like the GFS/GGEM. The good news is it did trend colder from 12z run. The PV is still a little too far north, which allows the gradient to get further north. Also a positive to take away is the PV never split this run. I think one minor adjustment at 12z tomorrow, and all the models will be pretty locked in. Final solution likely won't come until 12z Friday

Euro was probably 6-10 inches, with colder areas near 12 inches.

The 12+ zone on the euro is in the HV

we still have tomorrow and Friday for it to trend towards the GFS/CMC hopefully they also don't trend warmer after so many near perfect runs

from upton...MODELS HAVE COME IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT
STORM WHICH SHOULD IMPACT THE AREA FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED FARTHER OFFSHORE WITH ITS SURFACE
LOW...AND ALSO TOWARDS A COLDER LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE...MORE IN
LINE WITH THE CMC AND GFS. THERE IS NOW A GENERAL CONSENSUS THAT
THE SURFACE LOW WILL PASS NEAR THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK LATE MONDAY.

AS A RESULT...HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARDS THE COLDER CMC/GFS
SOLUTIONS. ALSO...GIVEN THAT THE STORM IS 4-5 DAYS AWAY...HAVE KEPT
P-TYPES SIMPLE - RAIN...SNOW...OR RAIN AND SNOW AS TOO MUCH COULD
CHANGE BETWEEN NOW AND THE ARRIVAL OF THE STORM TO TRY TO PINPOINT
WHERE AND WHEN SLEET AND POSSIBLY EVEN FREEZING RAIN COULD COME
INTO PLAY. NOTING THAT THE ECMWF IS PLAYING CATCH UP TO THE GFS AND
CMC WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDING DOWN INTO THE
PLAINS AND EXTENDING EASTWARD INTO THE NE AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...BELIEVE THE ECMWF HAS TOO MUCH LOW LEVEL WARM AIR AT THE
START...SO EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT MAINLY AS
ALL SNOW...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY A MIX WITH RAIN RIGHT AS IT STARTS
SUNDAY EVENING. SNOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY...POSSIBLY MIXING WITH RAIN ALONG THE S FORK OF LONG ISLAND
MONDAY AFTERNOON...THEN TAPER OFF FROM W TO E MONDAY NIGHT. IF THERE
WHERE TO BE ANY MIXING IN OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN...THIS WOULD
MOST LIKELY OCCUR DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...DEPENDING UPON EXACTLY
HOW FAR N THE LOW LEVEL WARM TONGUE GETS.

EVEN WITH ALL THE UNCERTAINTY THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACROSS MOST IF NOT ALL THE CWA FROM SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT IN THE
HWO. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE HIGH AND
LOW...THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS WITH THIS STORM.
AT THIS TIME...THOUGH IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL LIKELY BE BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS.

looks like upton sided with gfs/cmc. interesting. euro has lost it's high standing. to be honest it hasn't performed well this year. so the excitement builds.

from mt.holly...AS FAR AS THE MODELING IS GOING WITH THIS EVENT, THE OPERATION ECMWF
REMAINS THE WARMEST, ALTHOUGH IT DID TREND SLIGHTLY COLDER FROM THE
DAY RUN AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS SLIGHTLY COLDER BY MONDAY
EVENING. ITS DIFFERENCE FROM THE OTHER MODELS IS A SLIGHTLY
FARTHER NORTH PV IN EASTERN CANADA (LESS OF A NEARBY SFC RIDGE)
AND HANGING BACK MORE ENERGY IN WESTERN CANADA. BOTH PERMIT A
SLIGHTLY STRONGER TROF TO TRAVERSE THE CONUS AND BRING SLIGHTLY
WARMER AIR INTO OUR CWA. THE GFS ENSEMBLE CLUSTERING HAS ABOUT A
40 PERCENT SUPPORT OF THIS WARMER SOLUTION. THE ECMWF HAS DONE A
PRETTY CONSISTENT JOB OF "LOCKING IN" AT ABOUT 96 HOURS AND INWARD
THIS WINTER. THIS WILL MAKE TODAY`S 12Z RUN ONE TO WATCH TO SEE
THERMALLY WHO BLINKS FIRST.

AS FAR AS THE INITIALIZATION GOES, THE PV IN CENTRAL CANADA IS
SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE MODELING SOLUTIONS. WILL THIS ULTIMATELY LEAD
TO THE EURO SOLUTION BEING CLOSER? AT 850MB AND 925MB THERE WERE NO
BIG DISCREPANCIES NOTED.

well mt holly more confident in euro. 12z runs today are hugh.

I watched Rayno's video from yesterday and he was thinking rain/snow line would be at I-95. He did say north of that line could be 12 inches.Accuweather is calling for that as well.NWS much more ominous this morning saying models coming to agreement with colder solution and any mixing would be from the City south and east.Preety significant for these big Mets to be ringing the alarm this far out from the storm.

CP, looks like a classic HV snowstorm could be in the works.If it works out, I'll easily get to number 2 on my all time winter snow total list from '88 up.Need about 5 inches.

docstox12 wrote:I watched Rayno's video from yesterday and he was thinking rain/snow line would be at I-95. He did say north of that line could be 12 inches.Accuweather is calling for that as well.NWS much more ominous this morning saying models coming to agreement with colder solution and any mixing would be from the City south and east.Preety significant for these big Mets to be ringing the alarm this far out from the storm.

CP, looks like a classic HV snowstorm could be in the works.If it works out, I'll easily get to number 2 on my all time winter snow total list from '88 up.Need about 5 inches.

Ehhh, I dunno. As Lee Goldberg (and others) say, you gotta smell the rain to get the heaviest snow. If the changeover boundary stays south of NYC metro, the city could be the jackpot.

The way it looks like possibility of cnj being in that zone lots of time as frank said watch trends and see if they get colder

well the 6z gfs is much colder than 00z. I wasn't expecting that. thought it would be a tick north. what this does is push initial precip south so snow doesn't start falling from nyc north until 7am Monday. looks to be moving faster also with slightly less qpf. new jersey looks to be in the jackpot and we will have little if any mixing issues per 6z gfs

another thing to note this now becomes a daytime storm if gfs is correct. with the higher sun angle could keep accu down some. if any one has 6z gfs snow map can you post it. tku

algae888 wrote:another thing to note this now becomes a daytime storm if gfs is correct. with the higher sun angle could keep accu down some. if any one has 6z gfs snow map can you post it. tku

With temps in the upper 20's, sun angle wouldn't be a factor. Early March is not mid or late March

06z GFS still has 12+ for me and around city, GFS been quite consistent I think Upton is on the ball IMO but still plenty of time to iron it all out, as said 12z today will be big to see where  Models trend am hoping Euro caves to GFS/CMC.

SoulSingMG wrote:

algae888 wrote:another thing to note this now becomes a daytime storm if gfs is correct. with the higher sun angle could keep accu down some. if any one has 6z gfs snow map can you post it. tku

With temps in the upper 20's, sun angle wouldn't be a factor. Early March is not mid or late March

just went and checked 2m temps. they are very cold. starts in the mid teens Monday morning and rise into the low to mid 20's during the day. so soul you are right sun angle should not play a big part. also while qpf is down about.25 ratio's high.

06z snow 12+ for many areas.

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014022706&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=132

And this site takes ratios into factor.

jmanley32 wrote:06z GFS still has 12+ for me and around city, GFS been quite consistent I think Upton is on the ball IMO but still plenty of time to iron it all out, as said 12z today will be big to see where  Models trend am hoping Euro caves to GFS/CMC.

jman can you post snow map. gfs still at 12"+ even though qpf is lower due to higher ratio's. if 6z gfs plays out we will have no mixing isues at all. it snows throughout storm even in places like atlantic city. i'll sign for 6z gfs right now just don't want any more southern trend.

algea I did its 12+ for us my man : )

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014022706&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=132

jmanley32 wrote:algea I did its 12+ for us my man : )

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014022706&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=132

thanks jman just saw it now. it looks nice!

virtually the same as last night except a bit less in CT.  My parents dont want it anyways so bring it here lol.  The consistency with the GFS and CMC this far out is amazing, Darn Euro just needs come on board and Frank said its making progress.  As with all the storms we have had I also see this possibly over performing, remember the last big storm and the upton maps kept increasing and increasing.  But no matte I am sure DeBlasio will plan to have all of our cities children trying to trek to school in this.  I am glad I live in Westchetster as Yonkers closes when they need to.  When my daughter goes to school this will be safer.