March 2nd-4th Potential Snowstorm

jmanley32 wrote:algea I did its 12+ for us my man : )

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014022706&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=132

thanks jman just saw it now. it looks nice!

virtually the same as last night except a bit less in CT.  My parents dont want it anyways so bring it here lol.  The consistency with the GFS and CMC this far out is amazing, Darn Euro just needs come on board and Frank said its making progress.  As with all the storms we have had I also see this possibly over performing, remember the last big storm and the upton maps kept increasing and increasing.  But no matte I am sure DeBlasio will plan to have all of our cities children trying to trek to school in this.  I am glad I live in Westchetster as Yonkers closes when they need to.  When my daughter goes to school this will be safer.

I didnt realize it was going to be so cold, yikes! 8.2 right now brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr

I am guessing but i'd think Franks thinking is still the 12-15 for most unless he has changed his thoughts.

jmanley32 wrote:virtually the same as last night except a bit less in CT.  My parents dont want it anyways so bring it here lol.  The consistency with the GFS and CMC this far out is amazing, Darn Euro just needs come on board and Frank said its making progress.  As with all the storms we have had I also see this possibly over performing, remember the last big storm and the upton maps kept increasing and increasing.  But no matte I am sure DeBlasio will plan to have all of our cities children trying to trek to school in this.  I am glad I live in Westchetster as Yonkers closes when they need to.  When my daughter goes to school this will be safer.

 
I think the euro is underplaying that arctic hp. it's modeled at 1048mb that's very strong. what i'm thinking now is with this strong hp we want the low pressure to be more amped and juicy and maybe over perform. and BTW nyc schools are open for Monday.lol

algae888 wrote:another thing to note this now becomes a daytime storm if gfs is correct. with the higher sun angle could keep accu down some. if any one has 6z gfs snow map can you post it. tku

The sun angle on March 3 with the temperatures that the 6z shows would come in to play 0% in this storm. IMO

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

algae888 wrote:another thing to note this now becomes a daytime storm if gfs is correct. with the higher sun angle could keep accu down some. if any one has 6z gfs snow map can you post it. tku

The sun angle on March 3 with the temperatures that the 6z shows would come in to play 0% in this storm. IMO

I agree cp. I posted that before I checked 2meter temps. it will be very cold with high ratio's

No sun issues, too COLD!  And yes Algea, 4 days out and they already made their call lol

Not to jump ahead but that coastal on Friday is IMPRESSIVE!  Just a bit northwest and we are in trouble again.

Or I mean weenie land lol

WOW temp went down!  Now 7.4!

Since last night, EURO went slightly south and significantly colder. NAVGEM trended colder, GFS trended colder, CMC appears very nice similar to 0z GFS, don't have time to look into it majorly before work here but overall good trends since last night. DGEX is also cold although screw zone north due to tight cutoff and I'm not sure I'm buying that, the HV should do fine with this setup. Although we're now on to a much faster hitting storm from what I can see, typical but if it's snow I won't complain and maybe it will save my Tuesday flight.

algae888 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:virtually the same as last night except a bit less in CT.  My parents dont want it anyways so bring it here lol.  The consistency with the GFS and CMC this far out is amazing, Darn Euro just needs come on board and Frank said its making progress.  As with all the storms we have had I also see this possibly over performing, remember the last big storm and the upton maps kept increasing and increasing.  But no matte I am sure DeBlasio will plan to have all of our cities children trying to trek to school in this.  I am glad I live in Westchetster as Yonkers closes when they need to.  When my daughter goes to school this will be safer.

 
I think the euro is underplaying that arctic hp. it's modeled at 1048mb that's very strong. what i'm thinking now is with this strong hp we want the low pressure to be more amped and juicy and maybe over perform. and BTW nyc schools are open for Monday.lol

With the continued trend of the other models trending colder, I think the Euro is playing catch up. That high up north is strong and means business. After seeing the 6zGFS, that strengthens my belief now.

Good trends over night on the 0z suites and into the 6z's. Will be excited to see what the 12'z bring and will be following on my phone.
Hope the EURO trends toward other guidance today. IF it does, game on.

I'm actually more worried about this trending too far south than I am about a EURO solution. The models keep trending colder, so higher ratios, but it's also shearing out the waves a bit which leads to less qpf. We need that perfect balance.

Frank_Wx wrote:I'm actually more worried about this trending too far south than I am about a EURO solution. The models keep trending colder, so higher ratios, but it's also shearing out the waves a bit which leads to less qpf. We need that perfect balance.

Agree 100%.

This colder trend has gone as far as we should be hoping for, anymore in that direction this freakin PV is going to start ruining things, again.

Will have a blog out around 6pm today

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:I'm actually more worried about this trending too far south than I am about a EURO solution. The models keep trending colder, so higher ratios, but it's also shearing out the waves a bit which leads to less qpf. We need that perfect balance.

Agree 100%.

This colder trend has gone as far as we should be hoping for, anymore in that direction this freakin PV is going to start ruining things, again.

That's true, because that PV is strong.If this colder trend continues, we could be sitting on the northern fringe again CP.

Tomorrow night late should give us a better look.

Definitely my fear right now Doc much more so than any temperature or mixing issues. Where the GFS was last nights run was fine by me. Everyone got 12-15 inches and no one can complain about that.

Ace and Tom are in the jackpot zone AGAIN!! If this PV says no way to our storms then we are in the screw zone up here. Let's hope we get that balance needed - Mother Nature owes us one here! I may have to call her on my 2003 flip phone! _HAHAHA

What does PV mean? 

Im in jackpot too lol

Ram4wd wrote:What does PV mean? 

Polar Vortex. It is a large upper air anomaly that cannot be seen. It's a North Pole phenomena, but sometimes it travels the polar jet and gets as far south as the Great Lakes. It drags down Arctic air

Frank_Wx wrote:

Ram4wd wrote:What does PV mean? 

Polar Vortex. It is a large upper air anomaly that cannot be seen. It's a North Pole phenomena, but sometimes it travels the polar jet and gets as far south as the Great Lakes. It drags down Arctic air

Back in the day there was no term for this PV so it was called an Arctic High 70's and 80's, the Polar Express in the late 80's and 90's- they sensationalized this IMO - as a kid we called it just plain.................. cold!   Everything needs a label nowadays.

Agree dont want it anymore south, 6z GFS began to cut precip, a EURO and GFS compromise would be perfect

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Definitely my fear right now Doc much more so than any temperature or mixing issues. Where the GFS was last nights run was fine by me. Everyone got 12-15 inches and no one can complain about that.

I know you will call me a traitor, but with all the back breaking shoveling this year, if it shifted south, I wouldn't shed a tear.Just need 5.5 inches to get to number two on my all time snow list.

Doc come on I thought you were a SUPER SNOW WEENIE. What's happening to you ? I may have to have are KING SNOW WEENIE Mugs give you a pep talk, like Patton did to his troops.