March 2nd-4th Potential Snowstorm

This is a guy I went to HS with, I follow him bc he is usually pretty good what do you guys think of his discussion? Doesn't spound good IMO. Or IHO.

http://ryanhanrahan.com/

Cp just got off the phone with a buddy who been in the weather field for 25 years so I check with him when I get worried and with new data coming in we may only see 1-3 or 3-6 if it comes back a little north this has bust written all over it for many off us not just mid-Hudson valley.

I like you sroc : ) I am just on the boarder of the 8-12 or 10-16 (mesoscale sounds fun) so give or take about 10 miles will determine that according to that map. Am holding bc I dunno what else to do lol

I'm right on the line of the 10-16" and the 8-12" area on his map.

CP break out snowman!

theres snowman!

I am going to make a preliminary map prob in the morning.

sroc4 wrote:You guys are all crazy.  Ive used this analogy before and Im going to use it again.  Like Mel Gibson in brave heart right now we need to hold....Hold....HOLD!!!!!!!!  Although the southern energy is better sampled it is still not completely onshore.  It sits off the Cali coast.  As its center comes onshore it is modeled to open up at 500mb prob as its sheared by the mountains.  

Here is the link to the animation.  Impressive.
http://mapmaker.aos.wisc.edu/scr3/sat/west/westirflash.html
By 12z tomorrow maybe 00z the tick north again will prob happen.  And don't forget if this slight south soln occurs it means higher snow ratios despite slight lower QPF.  Here is a preliminary snow map put out by Steven Dimartino a good meteorologist.

Thanks Scott, You put my mind at ease, somewhat.

Maybe I can finally concentrate on work.

Come on Cp you know your not going to concentrate on work when there's a possible large snow event on the table. You can't because YOU ARE A SUPER SNOW WEENIE !!!

This guy I went to college with, his roommate is friends with this accountant who said he spoke with his butler who is an aspiring meteorologist who said that we are not getting any snow.  

In other words, everyone please calm down. It's snow. We either get some or we don't. Please let informed people on this board like Frank and SROC, study the models and make their educated predictions based upon their experiences. Frank has done a great job all year with nailing forecasts. He is the main reason I come to this board and tell my friends and co-workers about the site. Please do not turn this board into the old Bill Evans Weather Board with people constantly either wish-casting, being Debbie Downers or asking how much snow they are getting under their oak tree in their backyard.

Scott - thanks for the analysis and expert at that.

As I said to Skins earlier we are in a holding pattern right now and days ago I said theis to Tom (I think) on this board that the storm doesn't come ashore until 12Z- late afternoon Fri - at that time we get a better sampling of the energy - I don't know about you but the energy is quiet impressive - as I said yesterday has a Sandish look to at on the radar for Pete's sake.

Now cleansing breath everyone - get back to work - except those of you who are retired or being put out to pasture.

"Build it and he will come" - great line from my all time favorite movie Field of Dreams - H5 is building it!!

Ciao

gigs68 there are more people that know weather not just frank so calm down we are here to give our opinion if you don't like don't read!

I dont care about my backyard, I am always a realist. To ignore these trends are the same as ignoring the trends that eventually brought us into the snow in the first place. Its possible that the models will go back but with the strong PV and the past few storms treding SE in this range means that its a concern. If 0z go back north I will feel comfortable but this storm is in jeopardy whether you like it or not.

NjWeatherGuy wrote:I dont care about my backyard, I am always a realist. To ignore these trends are the same as ignoring the trends that eventually brought us into the snow in the first place. Its possible that the models will go back but with the strong PV and the past few storms treding SE in this range means that its a concern. If 0z go back north I will feel comfortable but this storm is in jeopardy whether you like it or not.

Cant entirely disagree with that. Yin to the Yang

NJ I agree this is the trend right now and its not good!

The trend may not be good for the north but where i am it may be great

Hey I've given up listening to all the pro mets I've been following Frank for years and I will always put my money on him he's been on target every time . I will not listen to the pros they always end up coming in line with what frank says . I wouldn't be surprised if they read franks blogs and compare with their thinking before actually forecasting ! So Frank is my man !!!

I hope that snow map is true...I'm in Central NJ and Monday's my birthday! I have my fingers and toes crossed for a huge snowfall for all!!    

Im hoping the same that map looks great for me were you at dasvinos

Im hoping the same that map looks great for me were you at dasvinos

What map is everyone referring to?

gigs68 wrote:This guy I went to college with, his roommate is friends with this accountant who said he spoke with his butler who is an aspiring meteorologist who said that we are not getting any snow.  

In other words, everyone please calm down.  It's snow.  We either get some or we don't.  Please let informed people on this board like Frank and SROC, study the models and make their educated predictions based upon their experiences.  Frank has done a great job all year with nailing forecasts.  He is the main reason I come to this board and tell my friends and co-workers about the site.  Please do not turn this board into the old Bill Evans Weather Board with people constantly either wish-casting, being Debbie Downers or asking how much snow they are getting under their oak tree in their backyard.  

Gigs:

It's much more than just snow, you obviously don't have the gene.

Funny first line though.

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

gigs68 wrote:This guy I went to college with, his roommate is friends with this accountant who said he spoke with his butler who is an aspiring meteorologist who said that we are not getting any snow.  

In other words, everyone please calm down.  It's snow.  We either get some or we don't.  Please let informed people on this board like Frank and SROC, study the models and make their educated predictions based upon their experiences.  Frank has done a great job all year with nailing forecasts.  He is the main reason I come to this board and tell my friends and co-workers about the site.  Please do not turn this board into the old Bill Evans Weather Board with people constantly either wish-casting, being Debbie Downers or asking how much snow they are getting under their oak tree in their backyard.  

Gigs:

It's much more than just snow, you obviously don't have the gene.

Funny first line though.

I like how people come out of nowhere and tell us to calm down lol.

SREF's are north with this still. I can't wait to see what 00z runs look like across the board.

Another event looks like its brewing next week on Wednesday, but let's get through this first.

SoulSingMG wrote:SREF's are north with this still. I can't wait to see what 00z runs look like across the board.

Something I've noticed in the CMC, some SREF members and the EURO is a stronger HP that dives into the central US faster which shears apart the moisture and kicks its east very fast. The GFS is a little weaker with the arctic high so its influence isn't so pronounced. Right now I'd be very worried in the HV and currently on edge where I am now. Skins, you do not want this south and sheared out solution, CMC only shows you and even people further south getting a couple inches, GFS blend of 6 and 12z would be best case scenario.