March 2nd-4th Potential Snowstorm

It's wild, on satellite this thing looks like a hurricane is heading toward SoCal.

http://www.intellicast.com/Local/WxMap.aspx?latitude=39&longitude=-97&zoomLevel=4&opacity=1&basemap=0014&layers=0040

skins that was the worst typing ive ever seen lol, mobile? LOL, I assumed it was wobble/waffle time so I will hang in there till tonight/tomorrow. Good thing I have other stuff to keep me busy lol.

Euro coming in I think. Please post totals or let us know what it shows whomever has access. I know it will be a while but I see it initialized on a site but that one only shows surface mb.

WOW! A local met in westchester totally lied about the GFS, assuming no one else probably looks at it. He said it puts down 6-9 inchs past many runs wow wow.

I won't even mention the other crap he said, not bashing him he is allowed his opinion but unless he was not looking at the GFS right he outright lied, I could understand if he made a modest forecast of 6-9 but he blatently stated GFS SHOWS 6-9 inches when we all know it has been showing 12+ for any runs.

jmanley32 wrote:I won't even mention the other crap he said, not bashing him he is allowed his opinion but unless he was not looking at the GFS right he outright lied, I could understand if he made a modest forecast of 6-9 but he blatently stated GFS SHOWS 6-9 inches when we all know it has been showing 12+ for any runs.

J, relaxxxxx. He was just using 6:1 ratios.   

Doesn't mean it will happen which is probably why he said that but many people will call him out that watch the models IMO.

skinsfan1177 wrote:Also hearing start time is later and ends sooner ugh

Timing won't be nailed down for a good day soooo...... take it with a grain of salt right now.

BIll Evans says 6-12" with potentially more,

Channel 5 - just said too early to call,

Channel 4 for said there willbe some mixing issues but we could see 4-6"+

Channel 2 - Lonnie jumped aroudn the studio, rolled up his sleeves, ran his fingers through his hair and the forecast was over

No consistency - they do not want to make the call too soon and I am surprised at Bill but when he says emphatically on WPLJ this morning that it is a MAJOR snowstorm for teh NYC Metro Iit reaffirms my KING SNOW WEENIE belief.

I am hearing reports on another forum that the EURO has also come in farther south, colder, and drier. Not sure if this is true or not.

soul 6:1 lol

Ahh he does have beautiful hair. My problem is do I change the oil on the snowblower tomorrow. I don't want to jinx the Mighty Iron Thor ( or whatever the name might be).

amugs wrote:

skinsfan1177 wrote:Also hearing start time is later and ends sooner ugh

Timing won't be nailed down for a good day soooo...... take it with a grain of salt right now.

BIll Evans says 6-12" with potentially more,

Channel 5 - just said too early to call,

Channel 4 for said there willbe some mixing issues but we could see 4-6"+

Channel 2 - Lonnie jumped aroudn the studio, rolled up his sleeves, ran his fingers through  his hair and the forecast was over

No consistency - they do not want to make the call too soon and I am surprised at Bill but when he says emphatically on WPLJ this morning that it is a MAJOR snowstorm for teh NYC Metro Iit reaffirms my KING SNOW WEENIE belief.

The end of that post is HYSTERICAL hahaha

Going over 12z GEFS members was slightly concerning. I thought the CMC solution didn't have any support but a good few members had the weak overrunning precip followed by a sheared out low with barely any precip that passes through the area and no precip shield development, that is what the CMC showed. This is a tough forecast and I hope the PV isn't too strong to cause this.

Well, NWS discussion mentions everything from total bust to 8 inches plus.

Got to respect Frank's concern from yesterday about that PV pushing this south and drying it up.Let's see late tonights runs.

NjWeatherGuy wrote:Going over 12z GEFS members was slightly concerning. I thought the CMC solution didn't have any support but a good few members had the weak overrunning precip followed by a sheared out low with barely any precip that passes through the area and no precip shield development, that is what the CMC showed. This is a tough forecast and I hope the PV isn't too strong to cause this.

Not to beat a dead horse, but I've been voicing this fear for the last several days. When I see high temperatures for me at 19° on Monday, in the first week of March? I think to myself this freakin PV is too damn strong and any precipitation field is going to have a tough time penetrating it.I'm not a great model reader it's just common sense.

That's why you don't celebrate models four days before an event, it doesn't make any sense things change. Now hopefully they change for the better as the trend right now is poor. IMO

BUT Frank did say a big storm was def on the table and I trust in his gut feelings but glad he put it out there that there could be trouble with this. Waiting on 18z GFS to see if 12z was a hiccup.

NJ I seriously hope your wrong with those consistencies coming together.

doc, NWS upton discussion had me rolling my eyes, I mean really might as well say bust or worst ever, its meaningless if they say both furthest senarios for me anyways. This just shows how complex this is bc I do respect the NWS and their forecasts but this is a odd writeup for them.

What time did Frank say he was going to do preliminary map?

Everyone please remember (a point FRANK made quite adamantly):

The trend was sort of 'suppose' to go SOUTH at this point in time. It has been this seasons MO. Within 48 hours of the event, the models all start trending north again.

looking at maps I agree CP I was holding out hope but its fading for everyone I see bust!

Here is the euro - more south - tonights and tomorrow morning runs will correct nw as we have seen all winter long

One model run does not make a trend............. The runs tonight will tell a lot.

The NAM goes north then the GFS and Euro go south, there are going to be deviations, just have to wait it out and see. I for one am positive looking at 12+ for everyone..................

Additionally, of all the storms we have gotten this winter whats the score of the models? which has the best record?

SoulSingMG wrote:Everyone please remember (a point FRANK made quite adamantly):

The trend was sort of 'suppose' to go SOUTH at this point in time. It has been this seasons MO. Within 48 hours of the event, the models all start trending north again.

It had been the trend this year, but the last couple of nonevents didn't trend that way.

I'm trying to be the devil's advocate here, and I hope this still works out really well for all of us. And it is true what you said Frank said himself last night he could see the models trending south today, so far he's been right about all of it. I hope he's right about the Northwest trend later on.

I have a good feeling that this south trend is only the beginning I hope I am wrong but I still think central and southern NJ will get some good snows!

Hey no one mention the "B" word and I don't mean blizzard. CP, NJ you have officially made me superstitious! LOL

You guys are all crazy.  Ive used this analogy before and Im going to use it again.  Like Mel Gibson in brave heart right now we need to hold....Hold....HOLD!!!!!!!!  Although the southern energy is better sampled it is still not completely onshore.  It sits off the Cali coast.  As its center comes onshore it is modeled to open up at 500mb prob as its sheared by the mountains.  

Here is the link to the animation.  Impressive.
http://mapmaker.aos.wisc.edu/scr3/sat/west/westirflash.html
By 12z tomorrow maybe 00z the tick north again will prob happen.  And don't forget if this slight south soln occurs it means higher snow ratios despite slight lower QPF.  Here is a preliminary snow map put out by Steven Dimartino a good meteorologist.

This is a guy I went to HS with, I follow him bc he is usually pretty good what do you guys think of his discussion? Doesn't spound good IMO. Or IHO.

http://ryanhanrahan.com/

Cp just got off the phone with a buddy who been in the weather field for 25 years so I check with him when I get worried and with new data coming in we may only see 1-3 or 3-6 if it comes back a little north this has bust written all over it for many off us not just mid-Hudson valley.