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Final Snow Map, Obs. Thread 3/3 Storm

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Post by aiannone Sun Mar 02, 2014 9:38 pm

I'm beginning to think i won't even see a snow shower lol
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Post by Scullybutcher Sun Mar 02, 2014 9:38 pm

To all who run, and take part in this forum! THANK YOU!!! The time and effort put in to teach, and inform us about the weather should never go unappreciated. 

So, when is our next chance of snow?
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Post by pdubz Sun Mar 02, 2014 9:45 pm

@Scullybutcher wrote:To all who run, and take part in this forum! THANK YOU!!! The time and effort put in to teach, and inform us about the weather should never go unappreciated. 

So, when is our next chance of snow?

too far out but id say this weekend
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Post by Dtone Sun Mar 02, 2014 10:01 pm

records low temp territory for CPK tomorrow night

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Mar 02, 2014 10:15 pm

This storm was a definite bust on my part. But I did warn us of this possibility from my blog:

"The one thing we have to watch which is certainly plausible is the Polar Vortex continues to trend stronger on the models and begins to force this storm to our south, while also shearing it apart (less QPF). The GFS has remained the most consistent and has not showed such a solution, but the EURO / CMC runs today could be interpreted that way (the EURO because it took a big jump from its 00z run)."

I shoulda rolled with that idea. Oh well.

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Post by aiannone Sun Mar 02, 2014 10:20 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:This storm was a definite bust on my part. But I did warn us of this possibility from my blog:

"The one thing we have to watch which is certainly plausible is the Polar Vortex continues to trend stronger on the models and begins to force this storm to our south, while also shearing it apart (less QPF). The GFS has remained the most consistent and has not showed such a solution, but the EURO / CMC runs today could be interpreted that way (the EURO because it took a big jump from its 00z run)."

I shoulda rolled with that idea. Oh well.

Well we all learned a good lesson from this storm. Sometimes models just don't interpret the strength of certain systems such as the PV in our atmosphere. Hopefully we can sniff this out earlier during future storms and not let this happen again.
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Post by Sanchize06 Sun Mar 02, 2014 10:22 pm

I'm going to get more snow from Wednesday then today lol

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sun Mar 02, 2014 10:33 pm

Well this was a complete bust. Glad I was out today instead of here at my computer.
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Post by Abba701 Sun Mar 02, 2014 10:45 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:I do not even see anything on the radar headed to NYC, total bust I think.  Man people are gonna bust on me at work tomorrow.  You guys are great I saw a bit further back something happened and just wanted to say despite the outcome no one was really expecting this kind of fail but no one is to blame.  Your all great and amazing at forecasting.  I have learned a lot this winter and cannot wait to discuss tropics season (which I know a lot more about).

The NWS mentioned a few days ago there was a low chance the city would see nothing.But yes it just shows how snow is very hard to predict.

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Post by 2004blackwrx Sun Mar 02, 2014 11:27 pm

This S*^$?#

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Post by Artechmetals Sun Mar 02, 2014 11:34 pm

Frank you were right on with that blog I remember it well and how you specifically said the pv would rip these storms apart ! My man you were right never heard a pro met mention that ! Even though I'm disappointed that this storm never happened you  definitely know what your doing ! Now when can we expect some more snow ! Please tell me there is one more
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sun Mar 02, 2014 11:34 pm

Someone on Accuwx posted this, pretty funny

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JuBQgU4oQZU&feature=youtu.be
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Post by Philliesfan Sun Mar 02, 2014 11:38 pm

I would like to second Snow Man's comment about Frank and the others deserving a gold medal. You have all done a great job.

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sun Mar 02, 2014 11:39 pm

FWIW I didn't buy the north trend last night, nobody ever gives Tom credit...  Sad 
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Mar 02, 2014 11:41 pm

@NjWeatherGuy wrote:FWIW I didn't buy the north trend last night, nobody ever gives Tom credit...  Sad 

I'm giving you an oscar tonight for best supporting forecaster of NJ Strong Wx Forum. The real oscars are kinda boring me

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Mar 02, 2014 11:42 pm

For whatever it's worth, RGEM has a pretty moderate period of snow tomorrow morning up into NYC

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Post by Artechmetals Sun Mar 02, 2014 11:47 pm

Tom I give you lots of credit you definitely are very knowledgable I also love how you always try and see the negative side of these storms   And your explanations are very professional ! Thank you
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Post by 2004blackwrx Sun Mar 02, 2014 11:53 pm

Tom we all give you credit but no one ever wants to believe the truth when its depressing.

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Post by Abba701 Mon Mar 03, 2014 1:02 am

Wow it's amazing how quiet this board is tonight.Looks like people aren't too happy.I don't blame them.From a foot to nothing is hard to grasp.

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Post by goalscore Mon Mar 03, 2014 2:53 am

moderate snow gusty winds. coming down fast, dusting on everything. South shore of nassau

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Post by docstox12 Mon Mar 03, 2014 6:14 am

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
Mets2695 wrote:Lol upton lowered amounts again. Now down to 1-2" for NYC metro and LI.

Consider yourself blessed, they now have the HV for negative 1-2 inches tomorrow, I guess their netting melted snow against what falls.

It's been a long couple of days.

Negative 1 to 2 inches.You're murdering me, pal, LOL!!!!!!!!
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Post by Quietace Mon Mar 03, 2014 6:19 am

Looks like sugar is falling from the sky. Eyeing about 2 maybe 3 inches so far. Ratios are crazy high.

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Post by docstox12 Mon Mar 03, 2014 6:20 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:This storm was a definite bust on my part. But I did warn us of this possibility from my blog:

"The one thing we have to watch which is certainly plausible is the Polar Vortex continues to trend stronger on the models and begins to force this storm to our south, while also shearing it apart (less QPF). The GFS has remained the most consistent and has not showed such a solution, but the EURO / CMC runs today could be interpreted that way (the EURO because it took a big jump from its 00z run)."

I shoulda rolled with that idea. Oh well.

Frank, last night I was thinking that "Frank wanted to go with his gut on that PV and declare this storm dead a lot sooner but got distracted by all the Pro Mets and model noise" I may be wrong on that, but if I am right, always go with your intuitions on these things.You had this nailed days before the pro- Mets.

Hope I'm not being A PIA busybody, you are an incredible Met.Just giving you some advice from an old timer.
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Post by docstox12 Mon Mar 03, 2014 6:25 am

@NjWeatherGuy wrote:FWIW I didn't buy the north trend last night, nobody ever gives Tom credit...  Sad 

I always give you credit by putting you, Doc, Ace and Frank as my top Mets I listen to.I only look at NWS and Accu. to cross check.

And, yes, you were amongst the first to declare the north trend dead.I remember that.Good interpretation Tom.

Whole thing still bites the big one.Nary a flake up here.Was hoping for at least a couple of inches to dress up this grey, dingy frozen cement.
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Post by docstox12 Mon Mar 03, 2014 6:26 am

[quote="Quietace"]Looks like sugar is falling from the sky. Eyeing about 2 maybe 3 inches so far. Ratios are crazy high. [/quot

Glad for you, Ace. At least somebody is posting some snow this AM.Just cloudy, windy cold here.
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