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Final Snow Map, Obs. Thread 3/3 Storm

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Post by Quietace Sun Mar 02, 2014 6:49 pm

@skinsfan1177 wrote:
@Quietace wrote:
@skinsfan1177 wrote:
@Quietace wrote:
@skinsfan1177 wrote:
@Quietace wrote:
@skinsfan1177 wrote:Can anyone give me a start time for my area cnj coast
1-2am For us skins.
is their a bust potential for us ryan or we locked in and what amounts
Yes high bust potential. Still think we could end up somewhere between 5-6 inches, but right now, i have little confidence in any forecast.
thats what i think as well so thats still 6 hours away how is the storm looking iyo
Ok. the HRRR has us in moderate snow overnight. With good ratios we could still pick up those 4-6 inches. The best stuff will still be south of us.
thanks ace probably wont do anything with school closing until morning
Most like but it will still be snowing then so it will influence there decision a bit. I bet Point is closed tomorrow.

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Post by Sanchize06 Sun Mar 02, 2014 6:49 pm

I think it's time Mt. holly drops the WSW for Monmouth county, I doubt I even hit 2" at this point

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Post by skinsfan1177 Sun Mar 02, 2014 6:55 pm

@Quietace wrote:
@skinsfan1177 wrote:
@Quietace wrote:
@skinsfan1177 wrote:
@Quietace wrote:
@skinsfan1177 wrote:
@Quietace wrote:
@skinsfan1177 wrote:Can anyone give me a start time for my area cnj coast
1-2am For us skins.
is their a bust potential for us ryan or we locked in and what amounts
Yes high bust potential. Still think we could end up somewhere between 5-6 inches, but right now, i have little confidence in any forecast.
thats what i think as well so thats still 6 hours away how is the storm looking iyo
Ok. the HRRR has us in moderate snow overnight. With good ratios we could still pick up those 4-6 inches. The best stuff will still be south of us.
thanks ace probably wont do anything with school closing until morning
Most like but it will still be snowing then so it will influence there decision a bit. I bet Point is closed tomorrow.
yeah thats true they prob will
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Post by docstox12 Sun Mar 02, 2014 7:09 pm

@sroc4 wrote:For those of you either new to the board or who do not regularly post, and to everyone else, I will be the first to admit that my forecast busted big time on this one.  I spent alot of time analyzing, studying, engaging in discussion with other enthusiest as well as metorologists on this board and other weather forums to come up with my forecast.  I was fairly certain based on model guidance, satellite imagery and my current knowledge of the atmosphere that my forecast would have held up, at least somewhat.  I take some offense at someone calling it wish casting.  I was taking notice of the SE trends as were many others over the past 2-3 days, but it was my humble opinion that the SE trend was not entirely matching up with the actual observations.  

Although others on this board may have seen the writing on the wall sooner than I, my forecast had support from multiple source including several well respected meteorologists.  Im not sure there are too many out there both amateur and professional who could have accurately predicted what is currently taking place.  That being said I do recognize there are a few, even on this board, who did make such statements a few days ago, but not many.  Accuweather, The Weather Channel, EPAWA, Steve Dimartino, and many other well respected weather outlets have had to adjust their snow maps significantly multiple times over the past few days due to the fact that this was not an easy forecast.

All that being said there is no excuse for anyone new or old, regular poster or occasional contributor to be disrespectful to anyone on this board.  Those of us on this board who post regularly and/or post snow maps etc. do so in our spare time because we love to do it, NOT because it is our jobs.  No one on this site is paid to do so.  We volunteer our time.  In a winter that has seen an exceptional amount of storm systems the track record of the forecasting and discussion on this site has been exceptional.  It has been done so with respect for one another despite differences of opinions along the way.  

Myself personally am all for a little chop busting or ribbing of a busted forecast, but trashing, and disrespectful comments to anyone's thoughts is unacceptable here.  This is a forum for sharing and learning.  Any disrespectful, or childish comments can be taken to FB.  End Rant.

Doc, you, Frank, Ryan and Tom are remarkable Mets and I thank all of you for your time spent this winter helping us all out.You guy's track record is amazing and even though this storm busted out, it's just Mother Nature throwing a big fat curveball when everybody expected a nice fat fastball.

Thank God for the excellent moderating work done here to nip in the bud any troll-like behavior which totally destroyed the old Channel 7 board.

I have learned a lot about model interpretation, upper level wind and water vapor reading and that's a lot to say for an old dog like me! I have met and laughed with a lot of great folks here.This site is a blast.

Now,guys, please cook me up 5.5 inches will ya so I can make number 2 on my 25 year list,LOL!
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Post by aiannone Sun Mar 02, 2014 7:30 pm

Lol upton lowered amounts again. Now down to 1-2" for NYC metro and LI.
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Mar 02, 2014 7:33 pm

I do not even see anything on the radar headed to NYC, total bust I think.  Man people are gonna bust on me at work tomorrow.  You guys are great I saw a bit further back something happened and just wanted to say despite the outcome no one was really expecting this kind of fail but no one is to blame.  Your all great and amazing at forecasting.  I have learned a lot this winter and cannot wait to discuss tropics season (which I know a lot more about).
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Post by SNOW MAN Sun Mar 02, 2014 7:36 pm

NWS canceled are WWA already and local Mets said the most we'll see in my area is a flurry.
I can't say that I'm not disappointed, but at least I won't have to shovel tomorrow. NICE !
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Post by docstox12 Sun Mar 02, 2014 7:48 pm

@SNOW MAN wrote:NWS canceled are WWA already and local Mets said the most we'll see in my area is a flurry.
I can't say that I'm not disappointed, but at least I won't have to shovel tomorrow. NICE !

SNOW, NWS dropped their snow amounts in my area faster than an olive goes down in a martini!

Oh, well.Like you say, my back gets a break!
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Post by SNOW MAN Sun Mar 02, 2014 7:53 pm

Doc, I think all the members on the forum could use that martini right about now after this HUGE
let down. Laughing 
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Post by Dunnzoo Sun Mar 02, 2014 7:57 pm

Yep, anyone have a pitcher ready? I think I have some nog left over

 drunken 

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Snowfall winter of 2020-2021  51.1"

Snowfall winter of 2019-2020         8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sun Mar 02, 2014 8:02 pm

Is the 0Z JMA out yet? I heard it trended north.

It now gives Montreal 12-16 inches.  Smile Smile 


Just back from a day out, but I saw a little of the busting going on here. Totally uncalled for. This is a free site with some of the most skilled forecasters I've ever followed. I would match their record this year against anyone, and I mean pro and amateur.

As the old saying goes, those that can't do become critics. Not a good way to live your life.
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Post by docstox12 Sun Mar 02, 2014 8:06 pm

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Is the 0Z JMA out yet? I heard it trended north.

It now gives Montreal 12-16 inches.  Smile Smile 


Just back from a day out, but I saw a little of the busting going on here. Totally uncalled for. This is a free site with some of the most skilled forecasters I've ever followed. I would match their record this year against anyone, and I mean pro and amateur.

As the old saying goes, those that can't do become critics. Not a good way to live your life.

Hilarious, CP trending north,LOL!
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Post by docstox12 Sun Mar 02, 2014 8:09 pm

Whoo, boy, Janet and Snow, good thing we aren't in a room with a bar right now.

The first round of Martini's are on me,LOL!
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Post by SNOW MAN Sun Mar 02, 2014 8:11 pm

Make mine a double Doc !  drunken 
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Post by Angela0621 Sun Mar 02, 2014 8:11 pm

I have been following all of you since the channel 7 board. It has to be so difficult to predict a storm 3000 miles away that has to travel across the country. You guys are awesome and everyone I work with comes to me for the forecast now. They ask me "what does your guy say "? Keep up the awesome work !!
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sun Mar 02, 2014 8:16 pm

Mets2695 wrote:Lol upton lowered amounts again. Now down to 1-2" for NYC metro and LI.

Consider yourself blessed, they now have the HV for negative 1-2 inches tomorrow, I guess their netting melted snow against what falls.

It's been a long couple of days.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sun Mar 02, 2014 8:23 pm

@docstox12 wrote:
@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Is the 0Z JMA out yet? I heard it trended north.

It now gives Montreal 12-16 inches.  Smile Smile 


Just back from a day out, but I saw a little of the busting going on here. Totally uncalled for. This is a free site with some of the most skilled forecasters I've ever followed. I would match their record this year against anyone, and I mean pro and amateur.

As the old saying goes, those that can't do become critics. Not a good way to live your life.

Hilarious, CP trending north,LOL!

Thanks Doc, I think I'm finally cracking, this last storm put me over the edge.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sun Mar 02, 2014 8:30 pm

@SNOW MAN wrote:NWS canceled are WWA already and local Mets said the most we'll see in my area is a flurry.
I can't say that I'm not disappointed, but at least I won't have to shovel tomorrow. NICE !

SNOW MAN:

The low temperature contest resumes Tuesday morning.

Bring everything you've got, the gloves are off.


Last edited by CPcantmeasuresnow on Sun Mar 02, 2014 8:32 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by SNOW MAN Sun Mar 02, 2014 8:32 pm

Game on my man !
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Mar 02, 2014 9:26 pm

Man, the radar looks terrible. Will I even see a snow shower? CP you might be in sunshine tomorrow.

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Post by photec Sun Mar 02, 2014 9:28 pm

NJ state offices are closed tomorrow in Trenton according to a text I just received from my boss.. Kind of hard to believe.

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Post by Dunnzoo Sun Mar 02, 2014 9:28 pm

Governor Christie declared a State of Emergency for tomorrow, not necessary up here, but they probably will need to enforce it down south. at least it will keep the folks from trying to get to the state offices in Trenton tomorrow....

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Snowfall winter of 2020-2021  51.1"

Snowfall winter of 2019-2020         8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by Quietace Sun Mar 02, 2014 9:29 pm

@photec wrote:NJ state offices are closed tomorrow in Trenton according to a text I just received from my boss.. Kind of hard to believe.
I see no reason for a SOE. Minimal Impacts north of I-195. Christie gone crazy with these.

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Post by aiannone Sun Mar 02, 2014 9:31 pm

Upton dropped the advisories...
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Post by Quietace Sun Mar 02, 2014 9:34 pm

Latest Warnings
Final Snow Map, Obs. Thread 3/3 Storm - Page 4 Phi16

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