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BLOG: March 12th-13th Potential Snowstorm, Discussion Thread 1.0

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Post by Quietace Mon Mar 10, 2014 5:02 pm

@oldtimer wrote:Tom   This was a La Nina season  Do we have a better chance for Nor'easters or Miller A with EL Nino period?   thx
This has been a typical la nina winter with quick moving, weak systems and transient cold. We really haven't had extremely long periods of frigidly cold weather (though we have been pretty below average this winter), mostly 4-5-6 days at a time then a reload.  In a nino where we have a stronger and more pronounced STJ and polar jet, you often get more classic set ups with a much slower flow which usually allow for larger systems, yet less frequent, with longer streaks of frigid weather. But you will have to wait for that type of pattern. We are still in a nina

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Post by Quietace Mon Mar 10, 2014 5:08 pm

@algae888 wrote:
LOW PROB ISOLATED SVR DELMARVA AND S NJ IN THE 3PM TO 7 PM TIME
FRAME WEDNESDAY AHD OF THE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...ML CAPE IS LESS
THAN 200J SO PLAYED IT AS SLIGHT CHC THUNDER ATTM.

IN FACT...IT MAY NOT RAIN AT ALL PRIOR TO 6 PM WEDNESDAY FROM PHL
SOUTH AND EAST.

from mt holly. don't get hopes up for severe weather or thunderstorms. matter of fact if storm trends any further north don't expect much rain either.
NAM is even farther NW with less than .20 of QPF for KNYC. Temps climb into the high 50s for much of NJ. Will have to continue to watch the indices values on the models for NJ, as the NAM suggests some high helicity and a tongue of higher cape values to sneak into NJ as tom said before.

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Post by SNOW MAN Mon Mar 10, 2014 5:14 pm

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@SNOW MAN wrote:
@amugs wrote:
@nutleyblizzard wrote:With this winter starting to wind down; even though I'm hoping for another snowstorm before spring, I've often wondered how this forum / local t.v. mets would react if we ever faced the mother of all winter storms… a March 1888 redux. I believe that was a triple phaser that stalled at the benchmark for two days! 2-4 feet of snow areawide, with temps in the single digits! Parts of new york state / southern New England had reports of 5 foot amounts. Frank would have his hands full with the server probably crashing. Would love to see it, but it would be a very dangerous storm. Kind of like Sandy in the winter time.

They would either shit or go blind, actually some of them both!! How about a 1993 Superstorm?

Just when you  think it is over it isn't - winter that is. We'll see what happens with this -EPO - this is how it all started this winter so it would be fitting to end the same way IMO.

@SNOW - the royal SNOW WEENIE CROWN shall be arriving by the courtship and it's master on the 31st day of this month. If for any such reason it will delayed I shall notify you my good loyal man. You know what is going to happen snow - you put everything away then we get a storm - right? bounce 

Mugs and Doc, isn't that the idea. Give up on winter and then BOOM !!! Reverse psychology my friends.  Wink

Snow man

Brilliant strategy but now you blew it by divulging to everyone that you were using reverse psychology. To offset this you now have to actually do all the things you listed above.


I'm on shore leave now courteously of your Highness because I gave up on winter (wink wink) earlier today.

I already did, this afternoon.  Very Happy 
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Post by sroc4 Mon Mar 10, 2014 5:27 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Is this storm possible to rival the March 14, 2010 storm?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/March_2010_North_American_winter_storm

What I do not get is why with this storm (March 2010) only having a low pressure of 993mb at the height had winds to 85mph and at 977mb for this upcoming storm wouldnt be even higher.  Can someone explain thanks.
JMan the minimum central pressure is only one of many factors that generate wind and wind speed.  How strong the surrounding high pressure is key as well. Remember air flows from HP to LP.  Take two LP with the same minimum pressure and surround one with a 1020MB HP and give the other LP a 1040MB HP the storm with the 1040mb HP will have higher winds speeds (assuming the HP are at the same distances to the LP). 

The distance between the centers of a LP and HP will generate diff wind speeds as well. Take two HP and two LP with the exact same pressures but separate one HP/LP by 1200 miles and take the other and separate the other HP/LP by only 500 miles. The one separated by only 500miles will have a much tighter pressure gradient and therefore higher winds associated with it. 

Another factor is the thermal gradient. Just the temp differences on one side of a cold front vs the other will generate wind. If you have a door in your house that doesn't have a good seal to the outside hold your hand over the cracks. The draft you feel is created by the difference between the cold outside air and the warm inside air. 

So you can see there are many factors that dictate how fast the winds will be with any given storm.

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Mar 10, 2014 6:21 pm

Storm is beginning to impress me less and less each model run that passes. It seems like the blocking is too weak and since there is no 50/50 low, the storm takes a track either over us or to our west-northwest. We may actually get dry-slotted if the storm tracks over us. Right now, expect around a half an inch of rain.

Backend snow is still in question. It never really works out for the area. I was liking 2-4 inches yesterday, and EURO still likes that idea, but I think a coating to 2 inches sounds more reasonable.

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Post by docstox12 Mon Mar 10, 2014 6:41 pm

NWS agrees with you Frank, saying less than one inch for me.After the steadier rain Wednesday, it just goes to rain and snow showers Weds night into Thursday.
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Post by RJB8525 Mon Mar 10, 2014 7:07 pm

Along with the flip flop weather,Jeff Smith said we could see more possible snow Monday the 17th?
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Mon Mar 10, 2014 7:07 pm

CAPE is not the only precursor to severe wx. The violent storms in IL that were tornado warned had very low CAPE values under 200KJ as well. Other parameters are very favorable however, assuming CAPE is the only factor is not correct, surprised NWS would say that, Ace I'm sure you would agree.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Mon Mar 10, 2014 7:11 pm

@RJB8525 wrote:Along with the flip flop weather,Jeff Smith said we could see more possible snow Monday the 17th?

Hate when mets mention the long range, EURO has a storm still but the GFS has nearly nothing and a GLC to follow, way to far away to bother with.
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Post by Quietace Mon Mar 10, 2014 7:12 pm

@NjWeatherGuy wrote:CAPE is not the only precursor to severe wx. The violent storms in IL that were tornado warned had very low CAPE values under 200KJ as well. Other parameters are very favorable however, assuming CAPE is the only factor is not correct, surprised NWS would say that, Ace I'm sure you would agree.
Absolutely agree, disagree with Holly's discussion.

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Mon Mar 10, 2014 7:17 pm

@Quietace wrote:
@NjWeatherGuy wrote:CAPE is not the only precursor to severe wx. The violent storms in IL that were tornado warned had very low CAPE values under 200KJ as well. Other parameters are very favorable however, assuming CAPE is the only factor is not correct, surprised NWS would say that, Ace I'm sure you would agree.
Absolutely agree,  disagree with Holly's discussion.

Even the GFS with the further south track has impressive DP and lifting here.

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Mon Mar 10, 2014 7:19 pm

NAM is more impressive with lifting with -2 to -3 values
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Post by Quietace Mon Mar 10, 2014 7:38 pm

@NjWeatherGuy wrote:NAM is more impressive with lifting with -2 to -3 values
What you posted and this screams thunderstorms to me.
This is also march now, not the middle of winter so climo starts to increasingly favor convective systems here.
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Mar 10, 2014 8:05 pm

Ace what does that first map you posted with the orange going up through NY depict?  Can we in southern westchester expect some of these storms too?
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Mon Mar 10, 2014 8:37 pm

@SNOW MAN wrote:
@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@SNOW MAN wrote:
@amugs wrote:
@nutleyblizzard wrote:With this winter starting to wind down; even though I'm hoping for another snowstorm before spring, I've often wondered how this forum / local t.v. mets would react if we ever faced the mother of all winter storms… a March 1888 redux. I believe that was a triple phaser that stalled at the benchmark for two days! 2-4 feet of snow areawide, with temps in the single digits! Parts of new york state / southern New England had reports of 5 foot amounts. Frank would have his hands full with the server probably crashing. Would love to see it, but it would be a very dangerous storm. Kind of like Sandy in the winter time.

They would either shit or go blind, actually some of them both!! How about a 1993 Superstorm?

Just when you  think it is over it isn't - winter that is. We'll see what happens with this -EPO - this is how it all started this winter so it would be fitting to end the same way IMO.

@SNOW - the royal SNOW WEENIE CROWN shall be arriving by the courtship and it's master on the 31st day of this month. If for any such reason it will delayed I shall notify you my good loyal man. You know what is going to happen snow - you put everything away then we get a storm - right? bounce 

Mugs and Doc, isn't that the idea. Give up on winter and then BOOM !!! Reverse psychology my friends.  Wink

Snow man

Brilliant strategy but now you blew it by divulging to everyone that you were using reverse psychology. To offset this you now have to actually do all the things you listed above.


I'm on shore leave now courteously of your Highness because I gave up on winter (wink wink) earlier today.

I already did, this afternoon.  Very Happy 

You are a true diehard.

I salute you from shore leave my friend. Now if Doc and Mugs would do their share, maybe we could still get one decent storm before March ends.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Mon Mar 10, 2014 8:41 pm

How pathetic is this to the snow lovers out there, now we're tracking thunderstorms for this supposed snow storm the models depicted just 3 days ago.

How I loathe thee, GFS, EURO, CMC and even you NAM.
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Post by pdubz Mon Mar 10, 2014 9:45 pm

This is perfect

BLOG: March 12th-13th Potential Snowstorm, Discussion Thread 1.0 - Page 10 4916f6226a
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Post by amugs Mon Mar 10, 2014 9:46 pm

It is time for the KSW to call it a day or even a year and take of thy crown for the sake of my own love - SNOWSTORMS  Sad Sad 

I shall take thy to the land of NJ WX and reside in the hinterland till the season bringeth what I truly love, white powder - until then ciao.

K - S - W

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Post by sroc4 Mon Mar 10, 2014 9:56 pm

Lets go with the latest NAVGEM shall we? LI Blizzard anyone?? LOL Easy Easy it has no support, but hey it looks sexy soIm just throwing it out there.
[img]BLOG: March 12th-13th Potential Snowstorm, Discussion Thread 1.0 - Page 10 Navgem10[/img]

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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Post by amugs Mon Mar 10, 2014 10:02 pm

CHeck out this spread - like I posted earlier today we are sand have been so friggin' close all winter long - as the GREAT BOB UCKER - "Just a bit outside" in a nut shell everyone!!

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/aly/Past/Snow_PNS/WSW.htm

Thank God I have 3 -well two batches of Bailey's and a vat I mean a 5 lbs vat of homemade cannoli filing to go along with my Homemade bailey's - drink and eat in my sorrow!

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Post by Grselig Mon Mar 10, 2014 10:12 pm

@amugs wrote:It is time for the KSW to call it a day or even a year and take of thy crown for the sake of my own love - SNOWSTORMS  Sad Sad 

I shall take thy to the land of NJ WX and reside in the hinterland till the season bringeth what I truly love, white powder - until then ciao.

K - S - W

AKA MUGS

Snow leaders. Do not flee the winter of almost haves. Construct a hearty alter, sacrifice his most passionate displeasure the rock calcium chloride to the The Lord of snow Ullr, and appease his apparent malcontentment with the NY tri state area. This must be accomplished prior to the Arrival of Spring and the commencement of the contest of baseball
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Post by sabamfa Mon Mar 10, 2014 10:24 pm

Can anyone share their homemade baileys recipe? I've seen some floating around online but would like to see what you all swear by!

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Mon Mar 10, 2014 10:46 pm

@Grselig wrote:
@amugs wrote:It is time for the KSW to call it a day or even a year and take of thy crown for the sake of my own love - SNOWSTORMS  Sad Sad 

I shall take thy to the land of NJ WX and reside in the hinterland till the season bringeth what I truly love, white powder - until then ciao.

K - S - W

AKA MUGS

Snow leaders. Do not flee the winter of almost haves.  Construct a hearty alter, sacrifice his most passionate displeasure the rock calcium chloride  to the The Lord of snow Ullr, and appease his apparent malcontentment with the NY tri state area.   This must be accomplished prior to the Arrival of Spring and the commencement of the contest of baseball

Should by some miracle the NAVGEM Sroc posted above come to fruition, it will be because of  this post Lord Grselig. Lest not we forget the sacrifice of the KSW, and the dismantling of the Snow Mans winter machines.

So let it be written, so let it be done.
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Post by amugs Mon Mar 10, 2014 10:51 pm

Look at this beauty of the 18z ngem in better color Snow WeenieHeaven if this happens I swear I will make homemade baileys for all my snow weenie friends!!

BLOG: March 12th-13th Potential Snowstorm, Discussion Thread 1.0 - Page 10 Navgem_mslp_pcpn_neus_10

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Mar 10, 2014 10:51 pm

CP the NAV GEM posted would that be snow for NYC and my area too? I know it has no support but was just curious?
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