March 17th-18th Storm Potential Discussion

Friggin long range NAM, always with the tease. 84

Wow, that looks really impressive, can the NAM be trusted yet?  I know you guys in the past have said when its at the very tail end its not that good but this looks awesome.

Nam can't be trusted yet. No.

jmanley32 wrote:Wow, that looks really impressive, can the NAM be trusted yet?  I know you guys in the past have said when its at the very tail end its not that good but this looks awesome.

Not at all, just eye candy, that storm is bigger that PDII.

man thats over 1 inch per hour in some places with 6 hr qpf of .5-.75 if i am not mistaken, come on NJ you have to admit its a litttle intriguing but still not going crazy a little early still.

jmanley32 wrote:man thats over 1 inch per hour in some places with 6 hr qpf of .5-.75 if i am not mistaken, come on NJ you have to admit its a litttle intriguing but still not going crazy a little early still.

Not impressed it's the hour 84 NAM, you do realize that means it's not at all accurate right? Tomorrow this time we can take it slightly more seriously but doesn't get into prime until sometime Saturday. All it is eye candy, that's it. A good run of course but meaningless essentially.

Sorry what is PDII?  That looks like it would be a HECS, ok will consider it eye candy for now with a wish for hope.

Just looked it up, i know now. wow just imagine!

jmanley32 wrote:Sorry what is PDII?  That looks like it would be a HECS, ok will consider it eye candy for now with a wish for hope.

Erm 2/16/03 where much of the area got 20"+ of snow, how do you not remember?




Did you live in this area at that time?

Nam ejects all the southern stream energy

You do know as soon as the media sees this they gonna go nuts. lets hope not!

Frank_Wx wrote:Nam ejects all the southern stream energy

500mb vort is neutrally tilted opposed to other runs like the 18z GFS with a strong positive tilt, not much support for this ATM but we'll see.

PD2 was awesome because of how much real estate it buried

NJ I was in central CT, looks like a foot+ there so not something I would consider huge, I was in college and focused on alot of other things like parties and girls lol.  But yes I vaguly remember a big snowstorm where it was knee deep in places but def not 30 inches.

So Frank u were what 10? lol must have been in  heaven, yes I am getting a clearer image of it now I believe that was the storm I took my car into a empty lot and went drifting lol.

Well lets see if GFS changes up last run it didnt have a whole lot, if it moves into line with this maybe theres a little more hope.  I lied I am staying up but no to euro.

Why is the GFS not loading on time, doesnt it usually start around 10:25?

jmanley32 wrote:Why is the GFS not loading on time, doesnt it usually start around 10:25?

Time change. All models one hour later

GFS starting soon

At hour 63, GFS has a nice look. Phase trying to occur. Nice ridge out west

Oh yeah duh lol

H5 has closed off just like the nam, but the trough is having a tough time going negative. Still pretty amazing that H5 closed off though. Big trend here

Sounds good to me, going to show actual hit this time?

H5 s/w gets pinched off in the southeast. Need it to eject!

The trough has to go negative to keep it going up the coast is the goal right?

It's still a moderate snowstorm on the GFS

Well its a trend in the right direction from having nothing a day or two ago or no hit that is.