March 17th-18th Storm Potential Discussion

GEFS show 1.00 qpf, all snow. Look great

Not staying up for euro. Goodnight

I'll be up for awhile longer and will post Euro 00z commentary for those who are also up. Can't wait to see if she finally gives in...

I'll be on Netflix and check in at 2, it better trend north like the rest

EURO is rolling.....

1005 mb low @ cap Hat, hr 78

Apparently the EURO is still in its own camp   

Euro remains the outlier. It'll trend. We are in a good position ATT.

SREF's say 'GET UR FRIGGEN SHOVELS OUT, KIDS.'

MECS an easy feat on latest runs.

Nam Hour 81 radar + precip type

35DBZ snow over NYC.   

SoulSingMG wrote:SREF's say 'GET UR FRIGGEN SHOVELS OUT, KIDS.'

MECS an easy feat on latest runs.

SREF's eject the whole thing 1.5" qpf thru 87 and still going

pdubz wrote:

SoulSingMG wrote:SREF's say 'GET UR FRIGGEN SHOVELS OUT, KIDS.'

MECS an easy feat on latest runs.

SREF's eject the whole thing 1.5" qpf thru 87 and still going

Wow. What a beauty. Wish this was 24 hrs out lol.

I am interested in hearing Frank's thoughts on why the Euro is still in the 'barely snowing' camp.

SoulSingMG wrote:

pdubz wrote:

SoulSingMG wrote:SREF's say 'GET UR FRIGGEN SHOVELS OUT, KIDS.'

MECS an easy feat on latest runs.

SREF's eject the whole thing 1.5" qpf thru 87 and still going

Wow. What a beauty. Wish this was 24 hrs out lol.

I am interested in hearing Frank's thoughts on why the Euro is still in the 'barely snowing' camp.

from upton UNCERTAINTY CENTERS AROUND
DEGREE OF PHASING OF A SRN STREAM CUTOFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
STATES ATTM WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE THE PAC NW TODAY.
DEGREE OF PHASING OF THESE TWO FEATURES...AND EJECTION OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY FROM THIS TROUGH AND THE EVENTUAL PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH
ITSELF...WILL DETERMINE EVENTUAL IMPACTS TO THE AREA. NAM AND SOME
EARLIER RUNS OF THE CANADIAN HAVE EJECTED THE TROUGH WHOLESALE...
LEADING TO A MORE NORTHERLY AND SNOWIER SOLUTION FOR OUR REGION.
THINK THIS IS OVERDONE AND SIDED WITH A BLEND OF THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN...WHICH ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON AN INITIAL
WAVE MOVING TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT-MON AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH
AND BRINGING THE BULK OF ANY SNOWFALL DURING THAT TIME...WHILE A
STRONGER LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN TROUGH REMAINS TO OUR SOUTH
LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE.

I would love to see the nam and sref verify but NWS is discarding them right now. we shall see what happens but we have been disappointed with the last several storms and while I would love a foot and a half of snow I am not buying into that right now especially with the euro against it. I would say a 3-6 or 4-8 type event ATM but things can change.

6z NAM further north more amped and extremely wet. it shows heavy snows for most of us with mixing issues nyc and s/e. I can't allow myself to buy into this yet but it sure does look nice.

algae888 wrote:

SoulSingMG wrote:

pdubz wrote:

SoulSingMG wrote:SREF's say 'GET UR FRIGGEN SHOVELS OUT, KIDS.'

MECS an easy feat on latest runs.

SREF's eject the whole thing 1.5" qpf thru 87 and still going

Wow. What a beauty. Wish this was 24 hrs out lol.

I am interested in hearing Frank's thoughts on why the Euro is still in the 'barely snowing' camp.

from upton    UNCERTAINTY CENTERS AROUND
DEGREE OF PHASING OF A SRN STREAM CUTOFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
STATES ATTM WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE THE PAC NW TODAY.
DEGREE OF PHASING OF THESE TWO FEATURES...AND EJECTION OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY FROM THIS TROUGH AND THE EVENTUAL PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH
ITSELF...WILL DETERMINE EVENTUAL IMPACTS TO THE AREA. NAM AND SOME
EARLIER RUNS OF THE CANADIAN HAVE EJECTED THE TROUGH WHOLESALE...
LEADING TO A MORE NORTHERLY AND SNOWIER SOLUTION FOR OUR REGION.
THINK THIS IS OVERDONE AND SIDED WITH A BLEND OF THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN...WHICH ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON AN INITIAL
WAVE MOVING TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT-MON AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH
AND BRINGING THE BULK OF ANY SNOWFALL DURING THAT TIME...WHILE A
STRONGER LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN TROUGH REMAINS TO OUR SOUTH
LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE.

I would love to see the nam and sref verify but NWS is discarding them right now. we shall see what happens but we have been disappointed with the last several storms and while I would love a foot and a half of snow I am not buying into that right now especially with the euro against it. I would say a 3-6 or 4-8 type event ATM but things can change.

Well. The GFS showed 6-10, maybe 12 for our area last run so if that is what they are going with, it could still be a good one.

At least they issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook ;-)

WESTERN PASSAIC-EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON-WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN-
WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-
SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-
RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-
NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
NORTHERN QUEENS-NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU-
430 AM EDT FRI MAR 14 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...NEW
YORK CITY AND IMMEDIATE SUBURBS...AND LONG ISLAND.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY EVENING
HAS SOME POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. IT IS STILL
TOO EARLY TO PREDICT THE EXACT LOW TRACK AND INTENSITY...OR THE
RESULTING INTENSITY AND DURATION OF SNOWFALL.

6z nam has 1.5-2 inches QPF and storm is not over yet.

soul not saying we cant get a foot or more of snow. i'm just staying cautious right now. would love to get a Godzilla but it is mid march and these big storm just don't happen that often. one problem I see having looked at ooZGFS ensembles they have 2 members with an amped up storm both of them are cutters meaning we would change to sleet and rain so while the more amped solution looks nice we will have mixing issues if that were to happen. a lot to pan out today hopefully we get a better handle on it by tonite

algae888 wrote:soul not saying we cant get a foot or more of snow. i'm just staying cautious right now. would love to get a Godzilla but it is mid march and these big storm just don't happen that often. one problem I see  having looked at ooZGFS ensembles they have 2 members with an amped up storm both of them are cutters meaning we would change to sleet and rain so while the more amped solution looks nice we will have mixing issues if that were to happen. a lot to pan out today hopefully we get a better handle on it by tonite

annnnd then the DGEX just came in, showing a freakin' b______d.     (proceeding with caution, don't worry ;-)

 

SoulSingMG wrote:

algae888 wrote:soul not saying we cant get a foot or more of snow. i'm just staying cautious right now. would love to get a Godzilla but it is mid march and these big storm just don't happen that often. one problem I see  having looked at ooZGFS ensembles they have 2 members with an amped up storm both of them are cutters meaning we would change to sleet and rain so while the more amped solution looks nice we will have mixing issues if that were to happen. a lot to pan out today hopefully we get a better handle on it by tonite

annnnd then the DGEX just came in, showing a freakin' b______d.     (proceeding with caution, don't worry ;-)

soul are you using the B WORD? we may have to wash your mouth out with soap.  

algae888 wrote: 

SoulSingMG wrote:

algae888 wrote:soul not saying we cant get a foot or more of snow. i'm just staying cautious right now. would love to get a Godzilla but it is mid march and these big storm just don't happen that often. one problem I see  having looked at ooZGFS ensembles they have 2 members with an amped up storm both of them are cutters meaning we would change to sleet and rain so while the more amped solution looks nice we will have mixing issues if that were to happen. a lot to pan out today hopefully we get a better handle on it by tonite

annnnd then the DGEX just came in, showing a freakin' b______d.     (proceeding with caution, don't worry ;-)

soul are you using the B WORD? we may have to wash your mouth out with soap.  

Hahaha, NO!! I didn't say it!!!

I know you didn't soul. I'm hoping and praying for one too!

algae888 wrote:I know you didn't soul. I'm hoping and praying for one too!

I'm realllllllly interested in seeing those 12z's. Especially the EURO. The 12z's & 00z's tonight will be telling.

mt holly disco...WHAT WAS ORIGINALLY A SPLIT FLOW BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED WITH A
BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES MAKING FOR A BETTER
DEFINED TROUGH DOWNSTREAM AND NORTHWEST PACIFIC ENERGY DIVING DOWN
DEEP INTO THE SOUTHERN U.S. DEPENDING ON HOW STRONG THIS ENERGY
EVENTUALLY BECOMES/IS AND HOW FAST IT PHASES WITH ITS SOUTHERN
STREAM COUNTERPART WOULD ULTIMATELY DICTATE WHERE THE MID-LEVEL
TROUGHING SHARPENS/DEEPENS AND WHERE THE SURFACE LOW WOULD TRACK.
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAVE KEPT A MAJORITY OF THE MID-LEVEL ENERGY
TO OUR SOUTH THOUGH A NORTHWARD TREND HAS BEEN SEEN WITH THE PAST
SEVERAL RUNS OF THE MID-RANGE GUIDANCE. THE ENSEMBLES MEMBERS OFF
BOTH THE GEFS AND EC HAVE SHOWN THE MOST NOISE/SPREAD TO THE NORTH
OF THE SURFACE FEATURE GIVING MORE CREDENCE TO A NORTHWARD JOG. THE
NORTHWARD JOG IS TWO FOLD WITH MORE MOISTURE TRAVERSING THE REGION
AND ALSO A TIGHTER THERMAL GRADIENT ACROSS AT LEAST OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES AT THIS POINT IN TIME.

FOR THE MOST PART THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR ALL FROZEN PRECIPITATION WITH A COLD DOME IN PLACE. DOWN
SOUTH, IF THE NORTH TREND CONTINUES, WOULD SEE A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES FURTHER AWAY FROM THE REGION. GUIDANCE IS
SHOWING A WARMER LAYER AROUND 800-850MB WHICH COULD MOVE PRETTY FAR
NORTHWEST GIVING WAY TO MORE OF A MIX-BAG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
WHICH WOULD GREATLY CUT-DOWN ON THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL.
AT THIS STAGE IN THE GAME, CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING OF A COASTAL LOW
AFFECTING THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH A BETTER PORTION OF
MONDAY...THE SIGNALS ARE THERE FOR IT. SPECIFICS ABOUT P-TYPE AND
ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS STILL NEED TO BE IRONED OUT BUT WE HAVE PLENTY OF TIME
FOR THAT AS THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC ENERGY HAS YET TO COME
ONSHORE...JUST A MATTER OF TIME.
good analysis from them, can't wait for todays runs

wow is the 06z a huge hit but went way north, hoping it now takes a in between run from here on out 12z and 00z tonight. GFS was much less intense but with a good amount like has already been stated and NO b word yet lol.

06z NAM was like 2/13 except cold at the surface, freezing drizzle and sleet for most at 84, likely would go back to snow after. However, like I've said it's still too far away, EURO hasn't really budged last night at 0z from yesterday 12z which is still not making me overly confident. In addition, like I've reiterated it's still too far in the future to lock in any solution.

Today's runs are important if we want to lock it in tomorrow night at the earliest